Recruitin' Mailbag: '14 Midwest Offers, Early Commitments, Treadwell Comment Count

Ace


OH LB Michael Ferns is one of a handful of early 2014 targets from the Midwest (photo via DetNews)

It's time for another edition of the Recruitin' Mailbag. Today, much of the focus is on the 2014 class, though of course there's a Laquon Treadwell question for those of you not ready to look that far ahead yet. You can ask a question for the next mailbag via email or with the hashtag #mgomailbag on Twitter.

Hi Ace,

Huge fan, you do an outstanding job. My recruiting question for you is, with so many scholarships given out to the 2014 class I've noticed that there has been a "lack of interest" so far with student athletes from the Midwest. My meaning of "lack of interest" doesn't mean they don't have kids from that area on their recruiting board. I'm wondering if the reason for that is because there is a lack of talent for the 2014 class in the Midwest compared to this 2013 class. Thank you for reading and answering my email. Take Care!

Best,

Marko-

Going by Touch The Banner's 2014 offer board (and adding in OH RB L.J. Scott, who picked up an offer last week), Michigan has sent out 52 offers in the class, but only 13 have gone to prospects within the Big Ten footprint. A quick glance at 247's early 2014 rankings, however, should tell you what this staff is thinking: the Wolverines have offered six of the top ten players in the country and ten of the top 20.

This early in the cycle, the emphasis has been on gauging the interest of the blue-chip national prospects; with that level of prospect, it's often the case of getting in early or not getting in at all. They're also the players who need the least amount of evaluation to determine if they're worthy of an offer. It's not like the Midwest isn't represented, either, and offers have gone out to in-state standouts Malik McDowell, Damon Webb, and Tommy Doles; I don't believe this is an issue of lack of local talent, even though we may not see Illinois produce the same level of prospects that they have in 2013.

I'd expect you'll see many more offers go out to Midwest prospects when the fall rolls around and the coaches have some junior-year film to evaluate. With a year-and-a-half until 2014 signing day, there's still a lot of time before we can begin to question the talent level in the area.

Is there any indication that Hoke & staff prefer to have the class wrapped up early?  What I mean is, do they put pressure on the kids (saying "hey, we're not going to hold a scholarship and we're recruiting others for your position") and that's part of the reason some guys (i.e. LTT, Treadwell's possible earlier decision) commit early?

The Wolverine asked Brady Hoke about the trend of early commitments in recruiting at Big Ten media days, and while Hoke said he's unsure if he liked sending out offers so early, he may not have much of a choice:

If they didn't take kids early, he added, they'd be in danger of falling behind.

"If we didn't, somebody else would," he said. "We're going to be aggressive in what we do. You can't sit back, or somebody's going to pass you, but I don't know what they're going to do [to slow it], or who's going to handle it["]

As for pressuring players to commit, several recruits have noted that the coaching staff has done no such thing; they want recruits to commit only if they're ready to do so. That said, the coaches are very open with recruits about the current scholarship situation and whether other recruits are poised to commit—see: the staff informing Leon McQuay III before Ross Douglas committed—with the implication that time may be running out to secure a spot in the class. They're not going to give a player an ultimatum; at the same time, they're not going to put the class on hold to wait on one prospect.

How much of an impact is the "no other visits" rule having on early commits for '14? — @Bry_Mac

Well, hey there, Blue in South Bend. I think the rule is absolutely having an impact at this stage, and that's a good thing; it's quite possible that without the rule in place a guy like Damon Webb would have committed by now, even though he's still getting offers from schools like LSU that would understandably make him think twice about that commitment. At this stage, the 2014 prospects haven't had much of a chance to see schools outside of their immediate area, and asking them to make an ill-informed decision is begging for some decommitment drama down the road.

Once some of the local prospects take a few visits to check out other schools, I think you'll start seeing the commitments trickle in; I'd be surprised if Michigan entered the 2012 season without at least one junior committed. They're in great position with a few prospects—especially OH LB Michael Ferns—and should get off to a strong start when the time comes. That time just might not be now.

How much does HS coaching (or lack thereof) shade our views of recruits? Can a great coach oversell a meh talent? — @hooverstreet

At a certain level, possibly, though that would be limited to positions like quarterback where the system really has a big impact, and usually you're able to tell regardless of stats whether a QB has the frame and arm strength to make it at the collegiate level.

I actually think that playing for a poorly-coached team can have a strange way of benefiting certain players; if a physically impressive prospect plays in a system not tailored to their game, the hype can build around untapped potential. To take an example—and I'm by no means saying he'll be a bust—Taco Charlton is now a four-star on the basis of his athletic ability, frame, and camp performances, but so far in high school he's been a situational pass-rusher. If he was out there every down and we got to see how he stood up against the run, it's quite possible that he wouldn't be as highly regarded.

For the most part, with all the camps and 24/7 recruiting coverage, I think it's difficult at this point for a recruit to get too overrated due to the high school system they play in; eventually, they either have to match up with other top prospects or they'll get dinged for shying away from top competition. That's a big reason why camps have taken on such a life of their own; in this day and age, it's all about seeing how top prospects handle playing against other top prospects.

why the sudden interest in Florida, lsu, auburn from QuonT. Is he cooling on mich? — @natebburn

It's important to note that this "sudden interest" in Laquon Treadwell from SEC schools is still coming six months before signing day; even last year this wouldn't be considered getting into the race late. As for Treadwell's interest in Michigan, I'll believe he's "cooling" on the Wolverines when he says so himself, and he's said nothing to indicate that they're anything but his clear-cut top school.

Just because the trend has gone towards early commitments doesn't mean that there's anything wrong with taking your time, checking out as many schools as possible, and waiting until you're 100% ready before making a commitment. Give Treadwell a chance to do his due diligence; I'd expect that whenever he's ready, you'll be happy with his decision.

Comments

beenplumb

August 2nd, 2012 at 12:24 PM ^

Ace, with the rising trend of high school players making early committments, the concordant effect is a team running out of space earlier in the year (as we're seeing with Michigan's current availability for the 2013 class). 

Do you foresee a trend in fewer high profile recruits waiting until signing day to pledge to a team?

Ace

August 2nd, 2012 at 12:56 PM ^

I think we're already seeing that trend. Eight of the top ten overall prospects on Rivals have already committed for the class of 2013. My guess is that the pace of recruiting is going to continue in this direction and we'll end up with an early signing period—like basketball has—sooner or later. The NCAA has tried slowing the process down—2013 written offers couldn't go out until yesterday—but they're going to have to deal with the new reality at some point.

Willhouse

August 2nd, 2012 at 12:28 PM ^

You say you'd expect us to be happy with his decision when he finally decides, but I won't be happy if he chooses a school other than Michigan.

I am glad the kid is doing his due dilligence...i just don't understand what else he needs...incoming 4/5 star OLs, incoming 5 star QB, strong running game, winning tradition, great coaching staff, great league, close to his home so his family can come see him play.

What more does he need???

/end rant.

Petr89

August 2nd, 2012 at 2:04 PM ^

My guess would be that he's a 17/18 year old kid who has the opportunity to travel around the country, gets to hear a bunch of famous adults telling him how awesome he is and how much they like him, and gets to hang out with the most popular guys at major colleges.  

If I was in between my junior and senior year of high school, I would absolutely go check out the college girls for a summer. Especially when you consider some of the more...ummm...adult recruiting tactics that allegedly occur in SEC country.  I say more power to him:  enjoy the ride over the summer, get back to football in the fall, and commit then.

JeepinBen

August 2nd, 2012 at 12:57 PM ^

The staff has been very up front with kids, in that they're treating a "commitment" as a signed letter of intent. You commit, you're done. No more visits, and if you do take visits, that voids your commitment in their eyes. Since this is a known, visible, overarching policy it behooves some recruits to take their time and visits. Treadwell isn't sure he wants his recrutiment to be over? Then don't commit to M. Realize the spots available, etc. but don't commit. If your spot disappears, your choice.

I think the coaches are doing right by themselves and the players in this situation. For us, it's a no brainer - who wouldn't want to play for Michigan? For them, it's the biggest decision so far in their lives and will define their next 4-5 (6? 7? if Jrs in high school commit) years. I'm fine letting someone take their time to make that decision.

CoachW

August 2nd, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^

A recruiting mailbag and no one asked about Derrick Green? That's surprising. I know he just released his top 6 this morning but I would have figured Ace would have been swamped with questions about him.

ken725

August 2nd, 2012 at 1:16 PM ^

What do you think about the offer to Conor Sheehy?  I know DL will be an emphasis for the 2014 class so I'm guessing he is one of our top prospects.  There is little information about him compared to the other DL guys we have offered. 

Artie

August 2nd, 2012 at 2:22 PM ^

All I want to know is why Ferns isn't carrying a baton.  Pretty sure he didn't hand it off already.  I think this can only mean that he is running the entire relay race by himself...and winning.  Well played Michael Ferns.