[Eric Upchurch]

Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

This game is all about history. But not in the way you’re being sold on it.

Like a high schooler doing an oral report on a book after only reading the back cover, every talking head is going to lean into the same narrative for this game. DID YOU KNOW Scott Frost once quarterbacked Nebraska? And now he now coaches Nebraska. AND AT THE VERY SAME TIME, Jim Harbaugh once quarterbacked Michigan, and now HE now coaches at HIS alma mater. Get it? BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! Scott Frost quarterbacked Nebraska in 1997, when his Nebraska team claimed a share of the national title with Michigan. And Michigan fans are displeased about that. Boy, look at all these interweaving plot points!

And that was fine when Michigan was playing Frost’s UCF team (before UCF won a national championship that is approximately as legitimate as Nebraska’s 1997 claim). I mean, what other narratives were they going to use? The two teams had never played. There were no other plot points.

I would propose an alternate course of action, sir

But, believe it or not, Michigan and Nebraska are in the same conference, and have been for over seven years. You may ask yourself, “wait, why?” And this would be a valid question, but one for another day. All you need to know is that Michigan and Nebraska have played four times since 2005. And the results are not encouraging.

[AFTER THE JUMP]

• In 2005, Michigan played Nebraska in one of the dumbest bowl games ever. Michigan lost 32-28 to a 7-4 Huskers team that had lost to Kansas by 25 points (which, can you imagine a Big Ten team losing by that much to Kansas today? People would lose their crap). Sure, we all learned the lesson that, in life, when you get the chance, always PITCH THE BALL TO BREASTON. But the result stood, bringing a fitting end to the Year of Infinite Pain.
• In 2011, Michigan’s lone victory over Nebraska since the Reagan administration. This win was half of Brady Hoke’s wins over ranked Big Ten opponents. /waves tiny flag
• In 2012, Michigan was driving for a score to take a lead late in the first half in Lincoln, when things went terribly, terribly wrong. Michigan lost the game 23-9, and in doing so lost its starting quarterback, and its shot at a division title.

The silence between these two plays is deafening, even six years later

• In 2013, Michigan rushed for -21 yards against a Nebraska team that recorded 15 tackles for loss. Fifteen. Out of 63 offensive plays. Devin Gardner was sacked seven times. And this was on the heels of that –48-rushing yard, 7-sack, 11-TFL loss in East Lansing. Michigan lost 17-13.

It only hurts when I remember

As for this year, there are reasons to be concerned despite the 17-point spread. It looks like Husker QB Adrian Martinez will be healthy enough to play. Against Colorado, Nebraska was leading, and driving, before Martinez went down. Scott Frost has a history (albeit on the smallest possible sample size) of turning moribund programs around quickly. Nebraska has some residual talent that was left in the cupboard by Mike Riley. Add it all up, and Michigan still wins this game, but Nebraska definitely outhits Michigan. Michigan 21, Nebraska 20

----------------------------

Counterpunt

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

 

On Sunday, November 23, 1997, Washington Redskins quarterback Gus Frerotte headbutted a steel wall so hard he began to bleed profusely from his head, was removed from the game, and was rushed to a local hospital. Two CAT scans and one neck sprain diagnosis later, Frerotte left the hospital in a full neck brace.

It was an unfortunate climax to a prologue that was full of promise. Frerotte had rolled out of the pocket on third-and-goal from the New York Giants’ one-yard-line, eyes fixed downfield and scanning for an open receiver. What he found instead was an open lane to the end zone. So Frerotte ran. And he scored. And he kept running. All the way to the corner of the stadium, where he would fulfill his destiny of becoming a living metaphor of an Al Borges offense.

In that corner, he pauses momentarily and studies the wall separating the field from the fans. The video replay betrays Frerotte’s internal thoughts, as he unmistakably sizes up the wall and all but nods to himself in acknowledgement that it looks sufficiently padded. Alluring even. Then, with a ferocious commitment to punctuate his touchdown celebration, he literally dives headfirst into the wall, oblivious to the fact that there was six inches of reinforced steel beams under a faux layer of padding. And so “Frerotte” became immortalized in two separate archives: first, in the history book of embarrassingly self-inflicted NFL injuries, right above “Grámatica”; and second, in Pete Carrol’s “Random Theories.v17” Excel spreadsheet, just above “Jet Fuel”.

Much like an Urban Meyer Apple Notes screenshot, history has a way of repeating itself. And as Scott Frost was preparing his University of Central Florida Knights for their Peach Bowl National Championship at the end of the 2017 season, he too saw the end zone. So Frost ran. And he kept running. All the way from Orlando to Lincoln, where he saw a bright red padded wall with an emblazoned “N”. And he sized it up. And he liked what he saw.

Scott Frost dove into the Nebraska job with as much vigor and gusto as Gus Frerotte on that fateful day in the fall of 1997. Unfortunately, the padding was about as thin as you’d expect a lame duck Mike Riley recruiting class to be.

Nah it’s exactly that year.

Yes, it’s been a rough season thus far for Scott Frost. Last week, Nebraska lost to Novi Rochester Hills Canton Troy. To his credit, Frost dove into Lincoln head first. And, initial struggles aside, the talented young coach may still yet find success. But, for now, he’s been met with the cold reality of deceptively shrouded steel.

Thankfully, Scott Frost has a proven recipe for success, which is largely based on (i) spending $29.99 per month on LinkedIn Premium to binge-watch Gary Vaynerchuk videos, and (ii) stealing Instagram captions from your unemployed high school friends.

Nebraska’s first two games notwithstanding, Michigan fans will surely be anxious seeing the intimidating Frost back in town and stalking the sidelines on Saturday. Just two years ago, Frost led his UCF Knights into Ann Arbor and absolutely walloped the Wolverines into submission. As Frost succinctly put it after the game, “we came in here and outhit those guys today." In a desperate attempt to gleam anything positive from that game, I reached out to our good friends at the Elias Sports Bureau and requested that they provide us with any advanced stats that might provide some measure of comfort. Here’s what I received:

Before you write us a letter Mrs. Frost, I asked them to re-run the numbers several times.

So what about today’s game? I certainly expect Nebraska to hit Michigan hard today, but maybe—just maybe—we can eek out a moral victory on the newest trendy metric: “points”.

But here’s something I do know: one day before Gus Frerotte’s fateful celebration, a storied Michigan player conducted his own iconic celebration in Ann Arbor. And he’s back today.

A month and some change later, this Golden God led the Wolverines to a national championship that would be shared with these very same Cornhuskers. Shared, yes, but no one said anything about rounding.

Michigan 0.51, Nebraska 0.49