As we are at the unofficial halfway point in the NCAA hockey season and exiting the holidays, we are going to gaze into our 'Crystal Puck' and try make some sense of Pairwise and see who will make it to the NCAA Tournament. For those unfamiliar, Pairwise Rank (PWR) is a formula used to seed the NCAA Tournament in hockey, from 1 to 16 (accounting for autobids via conference tournaments), before the committee is involved to factor in host schools and avoiding same conference matchups in the first round. As a general rule, you want to be in the top 12 of the formula to feel safe about getting in, while 12-18 is the bubble range.

As of this writing, Michigan is in the 15th position in Pairwise, so getting into the tournament this year is going to rely on a strong second half to increase their ranking in Pairwise (capturing their 3rd straight B1G Tournament title to earn an autobid would also accomplish that feat). As both the CCHA and Atlantic hockey tournament champions will get an automatic bid, likely from outside the top 16, teams in the 15th or 16th slot will usually end up missing the dance. So, Michigan wants to at least be in the top 14 and the purpose of this piece (and Part 2) is to analyze the teams ahead of the Wolverines, their current basic team statistics, players who are leading the way and a short synopsis of their season up to now and a projection on how they will do during the 2nd half of the season, to project out Michigan’s path back to the tourney. In this piece we'll be covering teams 1-8 in Pairwise, whereas Part 2 (coming in a few hours) will cover 9-14, plus Michigan and some predictions

[AFTER THE JUMP: Teams 1-8]

 

Pairwise #1 - Boston University Terriers

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Hockey East	16	11	4	1	3.8	2.6	32.6	28.4	12.2	25.4%	79%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Macklin Celebrini	F/Fr.	15	10	15	25	1.67	65	15.4%	6	4	0	8
Lane Hutson	D/So.	15	8	12	20	1.33	51	15.7%	8	5	0	-3
Ryan Greene	F/So.	16	6	10	16	1.00	38	15.8%	6	4	0	-5
Quinn Hutson	F/So.	16	8	8	16	1.00	60	13.3%	12	1	0	7

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Mathieu Caron	Sr.	16	11	4	1	42	959	2.63	0	412	.907

Boston University has shown through the first half of the season that when they score three or more goals a game, they stand a good chance of winning. BU is led by freshman Macklin Celebrini, who is the early consensus to go first overall in next June's NHL Draft, and defenseman Lane Hutson, who is one of the most gifted offensive defensemen in the NCAA. The challenge for the Terriers on their quest to keep the #1 ranking, like most star-studded super teams, is keeping pucks out of the net. BU struggles at times to defend, especially on the penalty kill, and goaltending is also a question mark as Mathieu Caron, a transfer from Brown, has merely been okay. I don't expect BU to be at the top of the Pairwise by the end of the season, but they will be near the top as Hockey East is a tough conference this year and the Terriers have too much talent not to be.

 

Pairwise #2 - Quinnipiac Bobcats

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
ECAC	17	12	4	1	4.4	1.9	33.8	23.1	10.1	21.9	91.8

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Collin Graf	F/Jr.	12	10	13	23	1.92	40	25.0%	0	4	0	14
Jacob Quillan	F/Jr.	17	10	12	22	1.29	43	23.3%	6	3	0	8
Sam Lipkin	F/So.	17	9	11	20	1.18	50	18.0%	27	2	2	11
Jayden Lee	D/Gr.	17	3	15	18	1.06	29	10.3%	0	0	0	13

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Vinny Duplessis	Sr.	12	8	3	1	24	729	1.97	2	270	.918
Matej Marinov	Fr.	6	4	1	0	9	309	1.75	1	89	.908

The defending National Champions are without a doubt the class of the ECAC conference and are running away from the rest of the pack in the regular season, and on paper should win the ECAC Tournament. The Bobcats’ offense has been led by juniors Collin Graf and Jacob Quillan, heroes from last year’s national championship team. Graf, who has missed 5 games this season, currently leads the nation with 1.92 points per game. D Jayden Lee has been adding offense from the back-end as he's accumulated 15 assists and 18 total points.

Quinnipiac's strength so far this season has been their ability to keep the puck out of their net, as it is most years. Vinny Duplessis, a transfer from Boston U., and freshman Matej Marinov have combined for a 1.91 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage, replacing last season’s star G Yaniv Perets. With only 3 non-conference games left in the regular season, look for Quinnipiac to improve on both their offensive and defensive numbers and cruise their way into the Tournament.

 

Pairwise #3 - Maine Black Bears

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Hockey East	14	10	3	1	3.6	2.4	35.4	25.2	7.6	20.3%	80.4%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Josh Nadeau	F/Fr.	14	10	12	22	1.57	47	21.3%	4	6	0	11
Bradly Nadeau	F/Fr.	14	10	11	21	1.50	53	18.9%	5	2	2	12
Lynden Breen	F/Sr.	14	5	12	17	1.21	43	11.6%	10	2	0	11

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Victor Ostman	Sr.	13	9	3	1	31	775	2.40	0	297	.905
Albin Boija	Fr.	2	1	0	0	2	69	1.73	0	22	.917

After three straight losing seasons, the Maine Black Bears are telling the rest of Hockey East that they're going to be a major factor this season. This resurgence has been brought on through the improved scoring led by the line of freshmen brothers Josh and Bradly Nadeau, who have a combined 20 goals and 43 points in 14 games, and anchored by senior centerman Lynden Breen, who has 12 assists and 17 points in that same span.

Along with offence from their top line, a major part of Maine's success so far this season is their commitment to team defense. They are holding the opposition to under 26 shots per game and senior goaltender Victor Ostman, while not being scintillating, has been able to make one more save than his counterpart at the other end of the ice. Maine has completed its Boston University and Boston College portion of their schedule and with 9 games left against the 4 teams who are nipping on their heels in the Hockey East standings, those games will go a long way to determine if Maine is a contender or pretender.

 

Pairwise #4 - Boston College Eagles

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Hockey East	17	13	3	1	3.8	2.3	33.3	29.1	9.8	28.6%	92.3%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Gabe Perreault	F/Fr.	17	5	20	25	1.47	36	13.9%	6	3	0	6
Will Smith	F/Fr.	17	8	15	23	1.35	43	18.6%	8	3	0	2
Cutter Gauthier	F/So.	17	13	10	23	1.35	94	13.8%	6	6	0	6
Ryan Leonard	F/Fr.	17	10	8	18	1.06	66	15.2	20	2	0	8

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Jacob Fowler	Fr.	17	13	3	1	37	1028	2.16	1	455	.925

The youngest team in the NCAA is probably the team with the most talent, and with each game played they gain more experience at the NCAA level. Which, in turn, will continue to propel them upwards in Pairwise. Offensively the Eagles are led by the high scoring freshman line of Gabriel Perrault, Will Smith, and Ryan Leonard, plus big, strong sophomore Cutter Gauthier, who leads the team with 13 goals. All four of those players were first round NHL picks. Defensively BC has a number of excellent puck moving defensemen who will contribute to the offense, but they can also play solid defense, headlined by 5th year transfer Jacob Bengtsson.

Freshman goalie Jacob Fowler is fresh off of a USHL championship in Youngstown and has played every game this season. He’s been technically sound and has made the saves when his team has needed him to. Seven players from Boston College are playing for the US at the World Junior Championship in Sweden and the experience and confidence they are getting there should propel them to a strong 2nd half and help push them even higher in PWR. A 1 seed feels likely for the Eagles.

 

Pairwise #5 - North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
NCHC	18	12	5	1	3.6	2.3	31.6	24.6	7.0	19.7%	86.0%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Jackson Blake	F/So.	18	11	11	22	1.22	57	19.3%	16	2	0	4
Cameron Berg	F/Jr.	18	7	10	17	0.94	48	14.6%	2	4	0	5
Owen McLaughlin	F/So.	17	4	11	15	0.88	35	11.4%	0	1	0	3
Garrett Pyke	D/Sr.	18	2	12	14	0.78	24	8.3%	10	0	0	8

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Ludvig Persson	Sr.	18	12	5	1	40	1088	2.21	3	401	.909

The Transfer Portal proved to be the best recruiting tool this past offseason for North Dakota as they filled the need to upgrade their defense and goaltending positions, areas that hurt them significantly last year. Swedish goalie Ludvig Persson toiled for 3 seasons at the defensively-challenged Miami of Ohio and has rebounded with solid numbers. On defense, puck moving and power play specialist Sr. D Garrett Pyke transferred from Alaska along with former Wolverine Keaton Pehrson and Bennett Zmolek from Minnesota State. The Fighting Hawks entered the holiday break on a 3-game losing streak, all in OT, but with 6 out of 8 games in January to be played on home ice, look for them to solidify their position as a tournament team.

 

Pairwise #6 - Wisconsin Badgers

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Big10	18	14	4	0	3.5	1.7	34.2	26.5	11.1	17.3%	91.2%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Cruz Lucius	F/So.	16	8	8	16	1.0	59	13.6%	6	1	0	2
Christian Fitzgerald	F/Jr.	18	3	12	15	0.83	42	7.1%	6	0	0	10
Ben Dexheimer	D/So	18	2	12	14	0.78	32	6.3%	6	1	0	5

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Kyle McClellan	Sr.	16	12	4	0	29	954	1.81	3	394	.931

A new coach in Mike Hastings who brings a winning attitude has brought and instilled a commitment to team defense has been the recipe for success so far for this season for Wisconsin. Playing in his 2nd season with the Badgers, goaltender Kyle McClellan has regained the form he had as a sophomore at Mercyhurst as he's making saves on the first shots, showing good rebound control and his defense is doing a great job of limiting second chance opportunities. The offense for Wisconsin is coming by committee as 9 players already have 10 points or more this season. Wisconsin will probably not remain this high in the Pairwise through the 2nd half of the season but playing against the strong Big 10 competition they should remain in the top 10.

 

Pairwise #7 - Michigan State Spartans

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Big 10	18	12	4	2	4.2	3.1	37.5	35.2	13.9	27.8%	83.1%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Joey Larson	F/So.	18	9	11	20	1.11	72	12.5%	4	4	0	8
Isaac Howard	F/Jr.	18	5	15	20	1.11	63	7.9%	6	2	0	4
Artyom Levshunov	D/Fr.	18	5	14	19	1.06	60	8.3%	14	1	0	16

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Trey Augustine	Fr.	17	11	3	2	49	990	2.97	1	534	.916

Now in his 2nd year as head coach with Michigan State, Adam Nightingale has been making a significant impact in bringing the Spartans back to respectability after a decade of misery in East Lansing. Nightingale, the former NTDP U18 coach in Plymouth, has installed a system of quick puck movement and high pressure when they don't have possession. He's also brought in a number of new players including former NTDP alums forward Isaac Howard and goaltender Trey Augustine.

Freshman defenseman Artyom Levshunov is a projected top 10 pick in the upcoming NHL draft and although he's prone to mistakes at times, overall, he is getting the job done at both ends of the ice. The 2nd half of the season will be the proving grounds for State as they play 4 games against the Wolverines and wind up the regular season with 2 games in Madison against the Badgers. They are in solid tournament position.

 

Pairwise #8 - Denver Pioneers

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
NCHC	18	12	5	1	5.2	3.2	31.2	25.7	11.3	23.8%	78.3%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Massimo Rizzo	F/Jr.	18	7	24	31	1.72	47	14.9%	6	0	0	19
Jack Devine	F/Jr.	18	15	13	28	1.56	61	24.6%	10	6	0	14
Zeev Buium	D/Fr.	18	5	20	25	1.39	22	22.7%	12	1	0	13

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Freddie Halyk	Fr.	13	8	4	0	35	720	2.91	3	265	.883
Matt Davis	Jr.	5	3	1	1	16	298	3.22	0	109	.872
Paxton Geisel	Fr.	1	1	0	0	5	61	4.92	0	31	.861

The NCAA's most explosive offense will be counted on to keep putting the puck in the net to retain their position in the Pairwise rankings, as their porous defensive play and consistently bad goaltending continue to be their Achilles heel. Scoring five or more goals a game isn't as much a luxury as it is a necessity since the goaltending duo of Freddie Halyk and Matt Davis have been woeful. Freshman Paxton Geisel got a surprise start at Western Michigan in the final game before the break and although he wasn't perfect, he allowed Denver to escape with an OT victory.

Offensively, the Pioneers come at you in waves with 4 lines who can all score. They also generate a lot of offense from their defense, with juniors Shai Buium and Sean Behrens leading the way, plus freshmen Boston Buckberger and highly touted, NHL draft eligible Zeev Buium, making huge contributions as well. Even if Denver doesn't win the NCHC, they should still qualify for the Tournament unless their sticks turn cold and their goaltending totally abandons them.