Opponent Watch 2019: Week 2 Comment Count

BiSB September 12th, 2019 at 9:41 AM

About Last Week

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Once again, we learned very little about Michigan's schedule. One quirky tidbit, though, is that Michigan's opponents are now undefeated when not playing (a) Michigan, or (b) each other. And as of now, they are favored to continue that trend through next week. 

The Road Ahead

Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Central Michigan, 61-0

Recap: Our first Total Rutger of the season; Wisconsin scored 61 points, and CMU gained 58 yards. The only real suspense was whether the Chips could put together the 20 yards of offense with their final drive to avoid the Rutger, but they only managed to gain 17 yards (their second-best “drive” of the day).

Wisconsin did most of their damage through the air, with Jack Coan, Graham Mertz, and Chase Wolf  (yes, Chase Wolf) combining to throw for 400 yards at 10.3 yards per attempt. Coan leads the Big Ten with a 76.3% completion percentage, and hasn't thrown a pick yet this season.

This team is as frightening as: A team that has two quarterbacks better than the quarterback whose name is the combination of an apex predator and a verb that best describes how that apex predator captures its prey. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Defensively, they lead the nation in total defense (107.5 yards per game), yards per play allowed (2.1), yards per pass allowed (3.1), and scoring defense (uh, 0 points per game), and are #3 in yards per carry allowed and #3 in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage. They are also the only team who has not allowed a single play of 20+ yards on the season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has a better offense than South Florida and CMU.

Period.

Definitely better.

I will not be taking questions at this time.

When they play Michigan: Jump up jump up and get down.

Next game: Bye

[AFTER THE JUMP: jump jump jump jump jump]

Rutgers (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 30-0

Recap: The early part of any college football season can be hard to process. There is simply too much data to merge into unified theory. We’ve got Maryland blowing people the absolute hell out, and Illinois more likely than not to make a bowl game (more on that later, but, uh… wut?), Jack Coan leading the conference in completion percentage, and Michigan State more than doubling their yards-per-play and more than TRIPLING their yards-per-play allowed from week 1 to week 2. The hell are we supposed to do with all of this?

So, in an environment that provides too many variables to possibly evaluate, it’s nice to have a constant in the equation.

Rutgers completed 10 of 27 passes on Saturday for 47 yards (1.7 YPA) and 2 INTs. If you include Iowa’s one sack, Rutgers averaged less than 1.4 yards per dropback. McLane Carter was 6-16 for 28 yards before suffering a concussion near the end of the first half. Artur Sitkowski replaced him and went 4/11 for 19 yards with a long of 23 (yep, that’s not a typo). The team averaged 2.6 yards per play. 35 of their 49 plays went for 3 or fewer yards.

On the bright side, the Rutgers defense was also awful but was willing to stay on the field for like 38 minutes so we didn’t have to watch the Rutgers offense.

This team is as frightening as: Still Rutgers. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers has unleashed one of the most fearsome weapons in the Big Ten: Aussie punter Adam Korsak. Dude punted 10 times for 476 yards (47.6 yards per kick), including a 69 yarder. What’s more, seven of those ten punts ended inside the 20 yard line, with four ending inside the 3 yard line.

Adam Korsak

You call that a punt? THIS is a punt.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: While that is indeed some B1G-quality punting, Michigan managed to narrowly defeat Rutgers in 2016 despite Rutgers punting for more than 600 yards.

When they play Michigan: Yeah they’re gonna punt a lot.

Next game: Bye

Iowa (2-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 30-0

Recap: I mean, “Beat Rutgers” is about as descriptive as one needs to be.

This team is as frightening as:

Kinnick Iowa:   image

Road Iowa:      clip_image004

Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Iowa has rekindled the hyphenated or otherwise multiple-capital-letter’d receiver lineage of Kevonte Martin-Manley, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Matt VandeBerg, and Tim D’Wight. Ihmir Smith-Marsette already has 8 catches for 148 yards and 3 TDs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After averaging 2.7 sacks per game last year, Iowa only has two total sacks in the first two weeks.

When they play Michigan: We will actually have a lot more information about Iowa, because by then the Hawkeyes will have played Iowa State and MTSU.

Next game: ¡EL ASSICO!, at Iowa State, 4:00 p.m., FS1 (Iowa -1)

Illinois (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat UConn, 31-23

Recap: I’m guessing a not-insignificant number of you saw the comment above about Illinois being more likely than not to make a bowl game, and scrolled down here to see the joke. Nope. No joke.

Illinois is 2-0, and they have remaining home games against Eastern Michigan, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Those three teams have an average SP+ ranking of #95. Win those, and you just have to pick off one from the pile of, say, Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue or Michigan State, all of whom Illinois has beaten in the last four years.

That said, Illinois remains pretty rickety. UConn was awful last year, and by all indications they are awful this year.

Brandon Peters threw 4 more touchdowns on Saturday, though he averaged only 6.5 yards against a UConn defense that surrendered a nation-worst 10.7 yards per attempt in 2018.

This team is as frightening as: UConn, only slightly less UConn. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Finding Champaign. Michigan hasn’t been there since 2011, so the only people who probably know where it is are Jon Falk and Murderwolf.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois’ ground game is getting beaten up rather badly. Mike Epstein is already out for the year, Reggie Corbin missed this game with a hip pointer, and Dre Brown has been banged up. As a result, Ra’Von Bonner leads the team in carries.

Sadly for your author, the backfield tandem of Peters and Bonner will not play Michael Penix this season.

When they play Michigan: If Michigan can't make hay against these linebackers, we got us a problem.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, noon, BTN (Illinois -8.5)

Penn State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Buffalo, 45-13

Recap: Penn State has a recent history of turning lackluster first half games against middling opponents into laughers:

  • They led Pitt 14-6 at the half despite Pitt yakking up several scoring opportunities. They won 51-6.
  • They led Kent State 21-10 in the closing seconds of the first half. They won 63-10. Penn State actually did the same thing against Akron in 2016, turning a 16-13 halftime lead into a 33-13 win.
  • They led Illinois 21-17 at the half (and 28-24 through three quarters) before pulling away to win 63-24
  • In 2017, they led Rutgers 14-6 at the half. They won 35-6
  • Also in 2017, they led Michigan 14-13 with under 2 minutes left in the first half. The final score is unavailable as of press time.

In this one, Buffalo led 10-7 at the half, outgaining Penn State 188-88, but largely because Buffalo Army’d the ball, running 38 plays to Penn State’s 19. Penn State took the lead early in the second half on a pick-six from John Reid, and after that the game went about the way a Buffalo/Penn State game probably should.

This team is as frightening as: Generic Mega Man boss. Like, Tuddy Man. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: The Nittany Lions brought back a little bit of the Deep State; Clifford averaged 12.7 yards per attempt, including deep shots to KJ Hamler, Jahan Dotson, and Pat Freiermuth.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Even adjusting for sacks, Buffalo held Penn State to 89 yards rushing on 21 attempts, with most of those coming on one 58-yard Clifford run. That was approximately the same level of rushing success Robert Morris had against Buffalo in Week 1.

When they play Michigan: It's all going to be on Sean Clifford's arm, as Penn State is struggling to find a go-to running back. Ricky Slade, the presumed starter and primary weapon, has 8 carries for 17 yards. In fact, the current running back depth chart is listed as Ricky Slade OR Journey Brown OR Noah Cain OR Devyn Ford.

Next game: vs. Pitt, noon, ABC (PSU -16.5)

Notre Dame (1-0)

Last week: Bye

Image result for touchdown jesus

[Stock Notre Dame image here]

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Sorry outlook hazy ask again later. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: I don't want to talk about Notre Dame today.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: And you can't make me so I don't have to. You're not my real dad.

When they play Michigan: We aren't looking ahead. Why would we look ahead. We just play 'em one game at a time.

Next game: vs. New Mexico, 2:30 p.m., NBC (ND -35)

Maryland (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Syracuse, 63-20

Recap: Okay, so, listen,,,

,,,

What had happened was,,,

Man, I dunno. I just don’t know.

It wasn’t just the score. It was how they did it. Maryland threw the ball at will (296 yards at 7.8 yards per attempt). They ran the ball at will (354 yards (!) at 7.9 yards per rush (!!)). And unlike last year’s Matt Canada offense of trying to get numbers on a given play with motion, frippery, and shiny objects, the offense Maryland ran was modern, coherent, and connected; they ran a number of RPOs and play actions off of their base run plays that consistently put Syracuse’s linebackers in the wrong place.

Maryland has now scored 142 points through two games. Rutgers scored 162 points all of last year.

This team is as frightening as: That story from last week where an entire undersea scientific research station vanished, leaving only a shredded communication cable. Maybe no big deal. Maybe Godzilla.  Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Remember that “was the Bama offense more of a Josh Gattis thing or a Mike Locksley thing” debate? Weeeeeeell…

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The back end of the defense was still prone to breakdowns. Maryland surrendered 330 yards and 8.5 yards per attempt to a Syracuse team that threw for 5.0 YPA and 2 picks against Liberty and a coach in a hospital bed the week before.

When they play Michigan: #SpeedInSpace vs. #FreeRangeTurtles

Next game: at Temple, noon, CBSSN (Maryland -7.5)

Michigan State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Michigan, 51-17

Recap: Michigan State had two reactions to being named the Rock last week. The first was to dress like the most important of all the rocks, the Heart of Te Fiti.

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So Shiny

The other was to play offense for the first time in approximately forever. They averaged 8.7 yards per play, which far exceeded their best output from last season, and nearly doubled their 2018 season average of 4.6 YPP. It was the first time State has eclipsed 8 yards per play since 2010. More encouragingly, State’s offensive line actually moved people for the first time in recent memory. Elijah Collins seems to have grabbed the lead running back role from Connor Heyward after rushing for 192 yards on just 17 carries.

The caveat here? Western’s defense looked awful.

This team is as frightening as: Yep, you don’t get rid of it that easily.

clip_image008

Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Running the ball against MSU remains death; Western Michigan only ran for 67 yards at 2.5 yards per carry (3.5 YPC after you remove sacks), which brings Sparty's yards allowed on the ground up to almost 0.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Western Michigan was able to move the ball on MSU through the air, throwing for 285 yards at 7 yards per attempt.

When they play Michigan: Remember that thing where you were having passing success but insisted on running into the teeth of a defense that was focused on stopping the run and very good at stopping the run? Yeah, maybe don’t do that.

Next game: vs. Arizona State, 4:00 p.m., FOX (MSU -13)

Indiana (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Eastern Illinois, 52-0

Recap:

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I think we can move on now.

This team is as frightening as: A fly in your meth lab.

Image result for fly breaking bad

Not particularly dangerous, but annoying and impossible to get rid of. Whether it makes for good television is largely a matter of perspective. But when you've got a battle with Gus Fring coming, this is the last shit you need. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: The inherent, foundational dumbness of the entirety of the Michigan/Indiana series.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: At 3.5 yards per carry on 31 carries, Stevie Scott has yet to get on track. Or untracked. Which raises the question: why do “on track” and “untracked” mean the same thing? According to Mirriam-Webster, it isn't exactly clear. Some suggest that "untracked" might be an eggcorn of "on track" (like saying 'for all intensive purposes' or saying something 'passes mustard'). Or it might mean "to get out of a rut," but even that doesn't make much sense, because ruts and tracks typically lead in the direction people typically travel. So, in summary, Indiana remains boring.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is even more more gooder than Eastern Illinois than they are Idaho or Howard.

Next game: vs. Ohio State, noon, FOX (Indiana +15)

Ohio State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 42-0

Recap: So, this isn't ideal. Cincinnati was about a 16-point underdog, and Ohio State had covered that midway through the second quarter. Justin Fields threw for 9 yards an attempt, JK Dobbins ran for 8.2 yards a carry, and Ohio State generally did whatever they felt like.

If there is one mitigating factor, it is that it turns out that Cincinnati's "hey, they might be good" win over UCLA may have instead been more of a "hey, Chip Kelly might have forgotten how to football" game.

This team is as frightening as: When they tried to nuke the alien spaceship in Independence Day, but it turns out, nope, still an invincible killing machine. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Invincible killing machine.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The U.S. Government has formally outlawed Ohio State, meaning they are no longer eligible to do sports.

When they play Michigan: They can't! Thank you, USPTO. We owe you one.

Next game: @ Indiana, noon, FOX (OSU -15)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (1-1, 0-0 C-USA)

Last week: Beat Tennessee State, 45-26

Recap: Asher O'Hara threw for 367 yards at 12.2 YPA, and MTSU didn't surrender a lead by allowing a basically uncontested 64-yard bomb with under 20 seconds left and the clock running, which ISN'T AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS AROUND THESE PARTS OKAY.

Next game: vs. Duke, 7:00 p.m. (MTSU +6)

Comments

ShittyPlaceKicker

September 12th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Western Michigan was able to move the ball on MSU through the air, throwing for 285 yards at 7 yards per attempt.

When they play Michigan: Remember that thing where you were having passing success but insisted on running into the teeth of a defense that was focused on stopping the run and very good at stopping the run? Yeah, maybe don’t do that.

 Man it's like we should be throwing the ball to our NFL caliber receivers more instead of running into a stacked box.

 

mGrowOld

September 12th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^

But if we do that we'll have ZERO chance of "evening up the time of possession" which I learned this week is a very important goal for our offense.

I mean if we throw the ball incomplete no time runs off (although we do get to run another play).

Even worse though would be if we scored a TD.  No more plays can be run and we have to give the ball back right away.  Absolutely no chance to even up TOP if we do that.

Brian Griese

September 12th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^

Harbaugh and Brown have both raised this point before about limiting the snaps the defense has to be on the field for. That was the main reason I never got that excited for offense changes this offseason. You can run whatever formation and personnel group you want but if your coaching staff isn’t willing to embrace the ‘score as much as you can as fast as you can’ thought #speedinspace and all the other talk is just noise. 

Through two games, it still seems the coaches are worried about TOP and that is very concerning.  

 

robpollard

September 12th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^

Here's my excuse for that (and it's not a good one, but it's what I got) -- they only focused on this for Army because of a) the fumbles in the first half and b) because Army focuses so much on TOP and is not explosive, they knew in the second half if they ground out a touchdown drive, that would likely win the game b/c Army would have little time to respond.

Of course, that didn't work at all because we neglected to attempt a FG and (most importantly) kept running obvious plays into stacked lines. But my *hope* is against non-Army teams, UM goes back to the first half of MTSU and Army and puts the freaking ball in the air more often that we run.

mitchewr

September 12th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^

Having a bad first half is no excuse to pull whatever it was we saw in the second half with all those runs into stacked boxes for virtually no gain.

How many bad first halves does Penn State pull, only to come out in the second with some sort of magical adjustments made and utterly torch their opponents by lighting up the score board?

 

robpollard

September 12th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^

Oh yeah, I don't have a lot of hope in that theory, but it's the best I got.

I maintained before the year that our only real chance for an 11-1 season was to be 2018 Oklahoma -- open it up, and with a little luck, we can beat our main rivals and get to the CFP.

Unfortunately, while we've had the "little luck" (see Army) so far, it appears UM is more likely to go with the strategy "We're up 10? Let's ball control so we win this game by 3 points" as opposed to "We're up 10? Let's try get up 17."

But who knows? Maybe our starting LT will be back, along with our #1 big play threat WR, we'll have had a good couple weeks of practice and the engines will be full go from here on out. Here's hoping!

cKone

September 12th, 2019 at 1:47 PM ^

Your last paragraph is the best that we can hope for at this point.  I'm hoping that his pregame speech includes telling them to now witness the power of this fully armed and operational battle station! <Followed by an evil cackling laugh>

We will find out in Just over a week....

Edit:  How is it already Thursday???

kehnonymous

September 12th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^

When they (MSU) plays Michigan: Remember that thing where you were having passing success but insisted on running into the teeth of a defense that was focused on stopping the run and very good at stopping the run? Yeah, maybe don’t do that.

Narrator: Michigan was, in fact, totally gonna do that.

DrewGreg

September 12th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^

Wisconsin is good. Their competition has not been. USF and CMU are a currently on a combined 0-21 streak against FBS schools. USF hasn't an FBS team since October 20, 2018, when they snuck by UConn at home 38-30. CMU hasn't beaten an FBS team since November of 2017!

Again, Wisconsin is good. But, using wins over these two teams as a foundation of an argument as to why M will lose next week is comparing apples and oranges. Stop it. 

DonAZ

September 12th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^

Looking at that schedule, two thoughts come to mind:

(1) -- Illinois: the other day I pulled out my DVD of "2001: A Space Odyssey" and gave it a watch.  I was reminded that HAL was "born" at the University of Illinois.  I didn't have any hallucinogens for the stargate sequence, so I can't offer any predictions about this game.

(2) -- Notre Dame: I hate Notre Dame.  With an irrational passion.  I want to not just beat them, but crush them.  I want all record of their existence wiped clean. I should probably seek professional help for this.  

robpollard

September 12th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^

What had happened was,,,

Man, I dunno. I just don’t know

 

Coincidentally, Urban Meyer just broke down in a 4 minute video why Maryland has "happened" -- and it consists of simple things that (as far as I can tell) Michigan doesn't do.

Video in the tweet; my summary below
https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/1171561017387577344

1) Get the ball to your playmakers

He gives the example of Anthony McFarland Jr ("one of the most talented, unheard players in America" -- I agree!). He says "Category 1" for a head coach to have an explosive offense is making sure you get the ball, at least 10 times a game, to your playmakers.

Does that sound like something we do (e.g., #freenico)? Nope!

2) Having 3 options for RPO

There was a very good post the other day by Seth which broke down scrape exchanges, etc, so go to that if you want great detail. But the first pass play of Maryland that Meyer highlights shows how Maryland readily defeats it -- by throwing short passes to the receivers. Did we do that against Army? Not really!

Meyer also does a nice breakdown of another play that puts receivers deep, middle and short and shows how that should be read by a QB.

---
None of this is rocket science. But this short video shows a) a big reason Urban was so freaking successful -- he focuses on the important things and makes sure they get done and b) why Maryland is likely to be a problem for the whole year.

mitchewr

September 12th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^

Just watched the video. Honestly, I've never really thought about that relative to what we do at Michigan but it's a fantastic point. When was the last time we knew the coaches were making a conscious effort to get our most talented players the football consistently?

Maybe with Peppers but he rarely came in for an offensive snap and every time he did the play was so obviously telegraphed that it was a complete waste of a down.

It seems like we just want to run "the system", whatever that happens to be that year and if our top talent sits on the bench or is never remotely targeted (hello WRs!) then so be it.

 

Edit: Also in the video Meyer points out Maryland running the tripple option RPO to account for when the outside defender hangs out to prevent the QB keep on the read...WHY ON EARTH could we not have done that against army?? Where were the short passes like that?? Sometimes it's just so frustrating to see other teams make it look so easy while we always seem to make it look infinitely complicated.

Jalm

September 12th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^

I don't see Michigan using any of this strategy. They think all their players are equally talented and are too chickenshit to name their obvious playmakers and target them to get them the ball. Which is why it baffles me we get too WR talent to come here. I've never seen us exploit a positional advantage on offense, they always f it up like pepcat.

DonAZ

September 12th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^

After Meyer left Florida, he spent a year as an analyst.  I didn't think he did that well back then ... he was stiff.  Perhaps inexperience; perhaps because it was live.

But this 4 minutes was excellent.  Clearly explained, comfortably delivered.  Credit where credit is due -- if this is post-coaching Meyer, then he does a good job.

1VaBlue1

September 12th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^

Can't watch the video until I get home, but what worries me about the description is the difference between a college coach and an NFL coach.  There really isn't much of a difference between playmakers in the NFL - great WR's can always be shut down by the corner opposite them.  It's largely scheme that sets them apart.  A college coach knows to exploit playmakers, while an NFL coach knows to exploit a scheme difference.

I really hope Gattis can change Harbaugh's reliance on scheme exploitation from the last few years.  We needed that in 2015-2017.  Not so much last year, and certainly not this year.  I mean, maybe the coaches see Ronnie Bell as a better weapon than Collins or Black?  Noo...  Couldn't be.  Could it?

BG Wolverine

September 12th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^

To me the big difference is in college, there is a greater chance the playmaker breaks a tackle or makes a guy miss vs the NFL.  When you see the video, notice the first play meyer is breaking down is well defended, the defender just misses the one on one tackle.  Should have been no gain with a solid tackle.  but again, that's why in college you need to let playmakers make plays.

TheCube

September 12th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^

Urban Meyer had that game where they lost to MSU b/c he didn't give the ball enough to Zeke Elliott. He rectified that within a week. 1 week. 

Jim Harbaugh has never done that and it's infuriating when you have NFL caliber receivers wasting away on the bench as Charbonnet runs into another pile. 

brose

September 12th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^

For some reason this made me laugh very hard - well done:

 

Michigan should worry about: I don't want to talk about Notre Dame today.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: And you can't make me so I don't have to. You're not my real dad.

lhglrkwg

September 12th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^

Michigan should worry about: Running the ball against MSU remains death...

When they play Michigan: Remember that thing where you were having passing success but insisted on running into the teeth of a defense that was focused on stopping the run and very good at stopping the run? Yeah, maybe don’t do that.

Can't wait to watch us go 50/50 run pass against MSU as we grind out 2 YPC on 30 attempts

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

September 12th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^

"Untracked" is just obnoxious announcer-speak.  Seriously, nobody ever says it except sports announcers (mostly football ones) trying to sound erudite and intelligent.  It's kind of like when they say "if you're Smith you have to catch that football" when obviously nobody listening to them is Smith the stone-handed receiver.

FrankMurphy

September 12th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^

This team is as frightening as: A team that has two quarterbacks better than the quarterback whose name is the combination of an apex predator and a verb that best describes how that apex predator captures its prey.

Reading this made my head hurt (for multiple reasons).