It's safe to say that as Michigan hockey fans we are a spoiled group, and proud of it. With only 4 out of 64 teams able to earn their way to the Frozen Four each year, we've been fortunate to witness two consecutive appearances at the Frozen Four and Michigan has been participants in 3 out of the last 5 Frozen Fours (there was no Frozen Four in 2020 due to COVID-19). As many know, to reach the Frozen Four, a team needs to win one of the four regionals, consisting of four teams facing off in a series of two winner-take-all games (if you win the first one). 

Of course, to win your regional, you have to make the tournament. 16 teams make it in, six teams through "auto bids" (winning the conference tournament) and the remaining teams through the at-large route. The at-large bids are determined by the Pairwise formula, a complex mathematical system that calculates every teams wins and losses based on location of games, whether games are conference or non-conference and common opponents. On average, four of the six conference tournament champions are already in the top 16 of the Pairwise, which means that when looking at the Pairwise at any given point, you want to make sure you're in a position no lower than 14th, but ideally 12th or 13th to feel safe.

Today we're going to go through Michigan's position in Pairwise and the B1G standings and then craft a brief rooting guide for tonight and tomorrow's games: 

 

Michigan's Current Standing

Big Ten Hockey Standings - As of February 15/24

	Team	GP	PTS	W	L	T	OW	OL	SW	GF	GA
1	Michigan State	20	46	14	4	2	0	1	1	79	55
2	Wisconsin	18	41	13	4	1	1	1	1	63	43
3	Minnesota	20	35	11	5	4	2	0	0	65	49
4	Notre Dame	20	27	8	10	2	0	0	1	57	52
5	MICHIGAN	18	25	7	9	2	0	1	1	64	58
6	Penn State	18	17	4	11	3	0	0	2	46	73
7	Ohio State	18	7	1	15	2	0	0	2	33	77

With six games remaining in Michigan's regular season, the Wolverines find themselves currently sitting 5th in the Big Ten standings, two points behind Notre Dame, who have played two more games than the Wolverines. Sweeping Penn State in Hockey Valley this weekend, and doing it in regulation time is the objective, as the six points for two regulation wins could move them into 4th place ahead of Notre Dame if they get a little help, and sets up next weekend's games against the Irish at Yost. As for the matchups with PSU, tonight's game is a 7pm start and can be viewed on B1G+, while Saturday's game is also a 7pm start and will be broadcast on the regular BTN Network.

These two games will be the 3rd and 4th meeting of the season with Penn State, as the Nittanys came to Yost on November 17th and 18th. In the first game, the Maize & Blue skated off with a 6-4 victory with six different Wolverines lighting the lamp. In the 2nd game Penn State skated away with a 5-3 victory to split the two game series. That series was marred by the injury to Rutger McGroarty, who is thankfully back healthy now for Michigan. Last week Penn State couldn't find the back of the net as they were swept by the Gophers in Minnesota by identical 3-0 scores. That was a bit of an out of character performance, as Penn State remains a team with decent scoring ability but who struggles primarily at keeping goals out of the net, with the worst goaltending in the B1G. If Michigan's offense is spry this weekend, they should be able to fill the net as they did in that first meeting with PSU. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Pairwise discussion]

 

Pairwise Rankings - As of February 15/24

Michigan enters this weekend 15th in Pairwise, which if the tournament started today would leave them out of the field, given that there are two autobid leagues (Atlantic Hockey and the CCHA). They will need to make up some ground over the course of the final month of the season, but luckily there will be opportunities to do that, starting this weekend. The gap between Michigan and the next two teams ahead of them, Cornell and St. Cloud State, is not large and even the next three teams after that, Providence, WMU, and UMass, all aren't too far ahead either. The Big Ten currently has three teams ahead of Michigan in the field, Wisconsin, MSU, and Minnesota, with Michigan looking to get off the bubble and into the field. Over the final three weekends of the regular season they will see teams #23 (PSU), #21 (ND), and #8 (Minn.) in the Pairwise, not to mention the B1G Tournament which will likely provide another crack at MSU or Wisconsin if Michigan can get out of the first round. The biggest objective is to get sweeps each weekend against these solid teams and get a bit of help. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

This Weekend's Games of Significance - Rooting Guide

Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking

Big Ten Games

Friday - Wisconsin (PW #4) at Ohio State (PW #32) - 6:30pm

Saturday - Wisconsin (PW #4) at Ohio State (PW #32) - 4:30pm

These two teams played each other on December 1st & 2nd in Wisconsin, with the Badgers skating away with 3-0 and 6-1 victories. Although we don't expect the results to be much different this weekend in Columbus, having the Buckeyes win a game, or at least take Wisconsin to overtime, would help drop them in the Pairwise and would help Michigan as Ohio State is a common opponent.

Friday - Minnesota (PW #8) at Notre Dame (PW #21) - 7:30pm

Saturday - Minnesota (PW #8) at Notre Dame (PW #21) - 6pm

The Gophers and the Irish split their first series in Minnesota back in mid-November with Notre Dame winning the first game 4-2 and Minnesota winning the 2nd by a score of 4-1. With Michigan trailing Notre Dame by 2 points in the Big Ten Standings, as much as no one EVER wants to cheer for the Gophers, it would help Michigan if Minnesota won both games in regulation so that the Wolverines can jump over the Irish in the standings into 4th place. In Big Ten hockey, The first place team gets a bye in the first round of the B1G Tournament, the teams that finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th would be the host teams against the 5th, 6th and 7th place team. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Hockey East Games

Friday - Maine (PW #6) at New Hampshire (PW #16) - 7:00pm

Saturday - Maine (PW #6 at New Hampshire (PW #16) - 7:00pm

Maine is currently sitting in 4th in Pairwise, with New Hampshire breathing down Michigan's neck at 16th. They played each other in an exhibition game back in early October which Maine won 3-2 and in their only other meeting on the 1st of December, Maine won 5-2. After going 6-0 in December and 4-1-1 in January, Maine is 2-2 so far in February. The Wildcats have lost two in a row and 5 of their last 7 but in the highly competitive Hockey East Conference, they still can maintain a good Pairwise score. As much as we would like to see a team ahead of Michigan in the Pairwise stumble, it would be more beneficial for the Black Bears to win both games this weekend to keep UNH away from leapfrogging the Wolverines.

Friday - Boston University (PW #3) at Providence (PW #12) - 7:00pm

Saturday - Providence (PW #12) at Boston University (PW #3) - 6:00pm

Boston University is currently ranked 3rd in the Pairwise and Providence sits at 12th. This series is the first time these teams have faced off this season, with a 3rd game scheduled for early March in Providence. A sweep by Boston University would be a huge benefit to Michigan, dropping Providence down and giving Michigan a team to potentially move past.

Friday - Boston College (PW #1) at Massachusetts (PW #10) - 7:00pm

Sunday - Massachusetts (PW #10) at Boston College (PW #1) - 1:00pm

This is another series where both teams are ahead of Michigan in the Pairwise. Boston College is at the top of the mountain at #1 and Massachusetts is #10. This is the first time this season these teams will have faced each other and should be one of the better series of the weekend. With Michigan splitting a series earlier in the season against UMass, it would help Michigan considerably if Boston College swept this series for the same reason we are cheering for BU over Providence.

Friday - Northeastern (PW #20) at UMass-Lowell (PW #35)- 7:15pm

Saturday - UMass-Lowell (PW #35) at Northeastern (PW #20) - 7:00pm

Northeastern is one of those teams that we need to keep an eye on. They are currently ranked 20th in the Pairwise but have been on a serious heater as of late. They beat Boston University in OT to win the Beanpot Tournament last Monday and have now won six in a row. This is the first and only time these teams will meet this regular season, with the River Hawks being the huge underdog. A big boost for Michigan would be if UMass-Lowell catches the Huskies off guard and perhaps squeaks out a win on Friday at home to set back Northeastern's quest for an at-large bid.

 

[Quinnipiac Athletics]

ECAC Games

Friday - Union (PW #36) at Quinnipiac (PW #9) - 7:00pm

Saturday - Rensselaer (RPI) (PW #56) at Quinnipiac (PW #9) - 7:00pm

Defending NCAA Champion Quinnipiac will be on home ice for 2 games this weekend when they host Union (Pairwise #36) and Rensselaer (Pairwise #56), with neither expecting to be much of challenge to the Bobcats. In early December, Quinnipiac went to Troy, NY, and defeated RPI 5-1 and then the next night made their way to Schenectady, NY, and defeated Union 5-0. Based on those results, we don't expect much from Quinnipiac's opposition this weekend, although last weekend St. Lawrence (Pairwise #50) beat them 3-1. Michigan ought to be cheering for a similar upset this weekend. 

Friday - Brown (PW #57) at Cornell (PW #14) - 7:00pm

Saturday - Yale (PW #44) at Cornell (PW #14) - 7:00pm

Cornell, which poses to be the only threat to Quinnipiac for the league championship, is right above Michigan in the Pairwise at #14. They have also been on a great streak since the end of November, going 11-1-2-1 in their past 15 games. Their only regulation loss during that time came on December 2. As for this weekend, Cornell defeated Brown in early November by a 7-1 margin, after beating Yale the previous night 3-1. Brown may come at Cornell with an attitude after their early season drubbing and could hopefully extract their pound of flesh, but the best hope for Michigan this weekend is Yale defeating Cornell on Saturday. Yale is undefeated in their past four games, so they are riding some momentum coming into the weekend, but an upset in either game, while helpful, is unlikely. 

 

NCHC Games

Friday - Denver (PW #7) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #25) - 7:00pm

Saturday - Denver (PW #7) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #25) - 7:00pm

The high scoring Pioneers will be taking to the road this weekend to Duluth to see if they can get back on track. Denver has lost three of their last four, including a 7-2 thrashing by Western Michigan in Denver a couple of weeks ago. The Bulldogs have been 5-5 in their last 10 games but seem to play their best hockey against top teams. Both teams had last week off, so they should be well rested. It's tough to sweep a two-game series, especially on the road, so look for a split which would pull Michigan up closer to Denver in the Pairwise (though we should cheer for a Duluth sweep).

Friday - North Dakota (PW #2) at Colorado College (PW #17) - 9:00pm

Saturday - North Dakota (PW #2) at Colorado College (PW #17) - 8:00pm

This has the potential to be a great series this weekend as they battle in the thin air of Colorado. Back in early December, Colorado College went to Grand Forks and took both games they played by identical 3-2 scores in overtime. It's not in a Michigan hockey fans’ DNA to cheer for North Dakota, but this weekend is the exception as they need to cool off the Tigers, who have won six of their last seven and are breathing down Michigan's neck in the Pairwise. A NoDak sweep provides some breathing room between Michigan and CC.