probably not happening

Hoops Recruiting Has Bad Luck With Top 30 Guards Comment Count

Matt EM August 4th, 2020 at 12:28 PM

There’s been a flurry of activity over the last week with announcement dates, top lists and the like being released. With the pandemic still in full swing, these sort of abrupt recruitments are going to become the new normal. Your weekly rundown below. 

Jalen Warley Set to Announce Sunday

4-star wing Jalen Warley will make his commitment on August 9th from a final 6 of Michigan, Florida State, Memphis, Virginia, Miami and Oregon.

As one of the few people that have a direct line of communication with Warley, I’m not confident the Wolverines will be the pick this weekend. Jalen sent out a “Not So Fast” tweet last night that provided a glimmer of hope, but I wouldn’t read much into that. 

It was a tough decision that he went back and forth with between 3 schools, one of which was Michigan, but I think he’ll spend his college years elsewhere barring a last minute change of heart.

Making The Cut

5-star forward Harrison Ingram included Michigan in his final 6 along with Stanford, Purdue, Howard, North Carolina and Harvard.

Ingram plays things close to the vest so getting a proper read on things has proven difficult. Visits are generally indicative of interest level to a certain extent, but the health crisis has precluded that method of discernment. 

What we can say is that academics appear to be a serious factor in this recruitment. While Ingram is probably a bit overrated as a top 20 prospect, he’s certainly valuable enough to have his pick of schools in the South. No slight to any of the following programs, but the fact that schools such as LSU, Alabama and Memphis aren’t involved likely translates to Harrison placing a higher premium on education in relation to his peers. 

In terms of a timeline, Ingram isn’t showing his hand. He essentially told Rivals and 247 that a timeline doesn’t exist and a decision could come at any time. 

[After THE JUMP: Update on Jaden Akins and bigs.]

Holding Pattern

4star guard Jaden Akins is down to a final 6 of Michigan, DePaul, Michigan State, Northwestern, Florida and Mississippi State. 

I hinted last week that a decision could come soon and at one point it looked as if an announcement was on track for this week. That no longer appears to be the case, as things have slowed down here a bit and the deliberation process will continue.

Of the final 6, Michigan State, DePaul and Michigan are the realistic options here. The Spartans have been in the hunt the longest and are absolutely strong in this recruitment, but the depth chart gives some pause and that’s where the Wolverines have the advantage. I’ll say this again, do not discount DePaul in this race. The Blue Demons are coming on very strong as we get close to the finish line as I mentioned a few weeks back. 

While it doesn’t appear a decision will come within the next few days, we’re definitely heading down the home stretch and I wouldn’t be surprised if things wrap-up within a week or two. 

Best Bet for A Big?

Top-30 prospect Efton Reid is a more traditional big that Michigan is heavily pursuing for either 2020 or 2021. Reid himself confirmed as much with Sam Webb back in May:

"I talked about it in the Zoom call with Coach Howard, my mom, Coach Martelli, and the other coaches,” Reid recalled. “Coach Juwan was like, ‘whatever decision you make, we want you in both classes. I could go potentially in ‘20, but I don’t know right now. So, I’m still in the ‘21 class, but they definitely want me for both classes basically."

Corey Evans of Rivals has been a bit sporadic of late, and you can probably attribute some of that to a need for clicks with a lack of actual basketball for the most part. That said, Evans did rank Michigan the number one contender for Efton a few weeks back. Just a few days later, Evans’ colleague at Rivals, Eric Bossi, cast some doubt when he published this:

Corey Evans handled the "Ranking the Contenders" for Reid and tabbed Michigan as the team to beat for the 7-footer. The Wolverines are definitely in there, but from what I can tell Reid's true intentions are about as clear as mud at this point. Florida State does great with big guys like him, Ohio State has been on him hard and it is hard to bet against Virginia. To me, it just too early to proclaim any definitive team to beat.

In the ongoing battle for Rivals legitimacy, Corey delivered a counter-punch today when he doubled-down on Michigan being strong in this recruitment:

He has decided to remain in the 2021 class and will prep in the fall. Florida State was seen as a heavy suitor but it is likely out, which leads things to a battle between Michigan, Ohio State, Virginia and a few others.

I have no inside information on Reid, but he has former AAU teammates Hunter Dickinson and Terrance Williams already on campus. That should keep the Wolverines squarely in the mix in tandem with Martelli’s connections to that area.

4-star big Charles Bediako has Michigan in a top 10 that also features Alabama, Memphis, Texas, Baylor, Maryland, Duke, Tennessee, Ohio State and USC. 

Corey Evans has the Wolverines running third in the race for Bediako right now, behind Alabama and Duke:

The Wolverines are another program that many recruiting Bediako believe to be in good shape. He’s going to need to be sold on the idea of playing alongside a true center like Hunter Dickinson, but the chance to expand his game and play more facing the basket could be appealing. The real sell here is Juwan Howard and his years of success in the NBA playing the same position as Bediako.

Duke has long been rumored to be at the forefront of this recruitment, with Alabama coming on strong recently. It helps that his former teammate at ISA, Keon Ambrose is a 2020 signee for Nate Oats and crew. 

Charles will take a post-grad year at IMG, and normally that wouldn’t be a good sign for Michigan. But we must remember that Jett Howard is also at IMG, although he’s on the national team rather than the post-grad team. Still, it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a top 50-ish type prospect in Howard making a strong pitch to come to Ann Arbor.

Happy Trails

3-star guard Angelo Brizzi committed to Villanova last week. Brizzi is probably going to be a productive college player as an upperclassmen that hits perimeter shots and can facilitate some offense, but this isn’t a huge blow in my opinion. He has some physical limitations that made it likely he’d be recruited over at some point with Juwan Howard’s preferences. 

Comments

njvictor

August 4th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^

Thanks for the update, Matt.

Saw that you scouted Jarace Walker this weekend. Think he mentioned Michigan as a team recruiting really hard a month or two back and playing with Jett can't hurt either.

Any word on him?

Matt EM

August 4th, 2020 at 8:54 PM ^

Appreciate the kind words. I never want to be viewed as an individual that is too full of himself to be accessible. At the end of the day I'm a Michigan alum that happens to love basketball while being fortunate enough to be compensated for my evaluations of HS basketball players. The fun portion of the scouting gig is that I'm incredibly lucky to interact with the Michigan community on a second-to-none platform provided by Brian/Seth/Ace/others here at Mgo.

AC1997

August 4th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^

Matt - In previous recruiting posts you've mentioned other potential recruits that are at least chatting with Michigan or even that you'd like to see Michigan pursue.  I'm wondering if there are any centers in either category.  I get nervous when all of our eggs are in the "top-30" basket with these recruits, especially if some will be scared off by Dickinson.  I did a quick scan of the 247 top list of centers and it doesn't seem like there are very many uncommitted guys out there.  

Any other nuggets of information on that position?  (I also heard that Bittle eliminated us.) 

Matt EM

August 4th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^

My apologies for omitting that information, yes, Bittle did eliminate Michigan from contention. I'd have to review film again, but 2021 just isn't a very talented class to be completely transparent. Akoldah Gak would be number one on my list without question. 

njvictor

August 4th, 2020 at 1:28 PM ^

Any word on AK Gak's recruitment? Doesn't seem like any Michigan communication, but he recently got ranked and he's only #149 in the composite and 247 has him as the #41 PF? That seems low based on his film

Matt EM

August 4th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^

From a perception standpoint, I can see the disappointment, but functionally this isn't a huge loss at all in my opinion. To sort of put my "This class is one of the weakest ever" argument into perspective, here's HS film on Stauskus. Keep in mind Stauskas was ranked #71 in the 2012 class per Rivals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZfYSC3lU9k

And here's Jalen Warley, a consensus top 30 prospect for 2021 sans my rankings

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFGMO4RcV6w&t=4s

 

Those two don't even belong in the same stratosphere. Stauskus was FAR superior to Warley in literally every skill facet on offense. You could easily project Stauskus as a combo-guard based on his ability to change direction/speed with a live dribble and create easy looks for others after collapsing the defense off the bounce. Warley is pretty much a straight line guy with sub-par athleticism that doesn't offer a ton of value as a playmaker for others and isn't a consistent shooter. 

Matt EM

August 5th, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^

Totally agree. But hypothetically if Stauskas were ranked as a top 30 type, there would still be a huge gap between his ability and that of Warley. 

For more perspective, Alex Caruso and Buddy Hield were both mid 80s prospects in the 2012 class. Both were better in HS in my opinion. All that to say, Warley is really a 75-100 type in terms of functional talent and long term upside in my opinion. 

yoshfriedman

August 5th, 2020 at 9:15 AM ^

"3-star guard Angelo Brizzi committed to Villanova last week. Brizzi is probably going to be a productive college player as an upperclassmen that hits perimeter shots and can facilitate some offense, but this isn’t a huge blow in my opinion. He has some physical limitations that made it likely he’d be recruited over at some point with Juwan Howard’s preferences."

 

I'm still too scarred from Donte DiVincenzo to ever short-sell an Italian going to Villanova.