Preview: Michigan MBB vs. Bowling Green

WHAT	#15 Michigan vs #164 Bowling Green
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN	4 pm ET Wednesday, Nov. 25th
THE LINE	KenPom: M -18 Torvik: M -16.6 Vegas: M -14
TELEVISION	ESPN2 PBP: Jason Benetti Analyst: Robbie Hummel

Juwan Howard's squad opens the season against Bowling Green, a program that's notable for not being the usual early-season cannon fodder. The Falcons finished 21-10 (12-6 MAC) last season and ranked #168 on KenPom; they project to finish in almost exactly the same spot this year. They're a team Michigan should beat—KenPom gives the Wolverines a 95% win probability—but they're also not Houston Baptist.

THE US

Will be covered in more detail in today's Five Questions Five Answers post, which will look at the various starting lineup and rotation possibilities. Howard planned to use the last two days of practice to help determine the opening five.

THE THEM

Bowling Green has a frisky offense for a mid-major; their adjusted offensive efficiency of 104.3 wasn't outstanding (#146 nationally) but would've at least placed them well ahead of Nebraska (#190) and not far behind Northwestern (#131) in the Big Ten. The 210th-ranked defense, on the other hand, would've pulled up the rear by a significant amount—the Huskers were last among B1G teams at #152. The D was bad even by MAC standards and Synergy indicates their failures in the halfcourt were comprehensive.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the Bowling Green preview and an alert to turn on the women's opener RIGHT NOW.]

Despite playing at a relatively high tempo, they took great care of the ball, finishing eighth in the country in turnover rate. That helped make up for an abysmal 45% mark on two-pointers, as did above-average three-point and free-throw shooting. Their man-to-man defense appears much more focused on contesting shots than forcing mistakes; opponents turned the ball over almost as infrequently as the Falcons.

The team is headlined by 6'4 volume scoring guard Justin Turner, who averaged 18.8 points on 17.5 shooting possessions per game with a 1.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. As his shot chart from 2019-20 shows, he's an adept above-the-break three-point shooter with good touch from floater range who struggles to finish at the rim:

Turner covers for some of his finishing issues by earning frequent trips to the line, where he shoots 85%, so he still attacks the basket for the majority of his shots. He's at his best in pick-and-roll and isolation situations; while he's not the most willing passer, he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot. This is primarily a ball screen offense and Turner is by far the top playmaker in that role.

Senior Daequon Plowden, who mostly plays power forward at 6'6/215, is a highly efficient secondary option; he shot 54% on twos and 36% on threes last year while taking care of the ball and posting solid rebounding rates on both ends of the floor. Michigan's size across the board may give him trouble, however; he had an absolute dud (3 points, 1/6 FG, 3 fouls) in BG's game at LSU last year. When Turner passes, he's the most likely target.

6'6 junior Trey Diggs is Just A Shooter™ who hits 39% of his triples, so his matchup can't sag off to help on Turner. With point guard Dylan Frye graduated, figuring out how the rest of the lineup fits together isn't easy. 6'2" junior Caleb Fields played starter-level minutes last year but was mostly invisible/ineffective; he hasn't shot the ball well enough to keep defenses from helping off of him.

While big man play was a weakness last year, which may render this less relevant, they also lost their top two centers. 6'8, 220-pound JuCo transfer Jacob Washington is a much-needed reinforcement who's probably overmatched in this game. 6'9, 215-pound redshirt junior Matiss Kulackovskis and 6'10, 295-pound redshirt sophomore Dylan Swingle provide two very different-shaped options up front; the former has some stretch to his game, but neither played much last year.

THE KEYS

Contain the ball screen. Almost a third of BG's offensive possessions last season were categorized as pick-and-roll plays, according to Synergy. Turner was a 28% usage guy last year who may need to take on even more responsibility this year given there's no obvious replacement for last year's starting point guard. Howard can take his pick of defender to put on Turner, whether that's Eli Brooks, Chaundee Brown, Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, or some combination of the four.

I'm optimistic the perimeter players will give Turner trouble; the question is whether the big men will execute their end well enough to keep him from making a living at the line. This is a good early test for Hunter Dickinson's pick-and-roll coverage and rim protection, especially since the Falcons have some screeners who will pop out for three.

Play volleyball if needed. Unless Swingle ends up playing center more than expected, this is going to be one of the smaller teams Michigan faces all year. I have no idea how Bowling Green plans to match up with M's size across the board. This is a game to feed the post, attack switches/mismatches, and throw a couple guys at the offensive glass. While I want to see Michigan run real offensive sets for the sake of early-season development, they can also overpower this team.

Tinker. I'm hoping the Wolverines can stretch out enough of a lead that Howard feels more comfortable trying as many lineup combinations as possible. No matter what, we're going to see some variety; this is a great game to unleash Brandon Johns at center. There are a lot of possibilities with this squad and a very limited amount of time before Big Ten play begins to explore them.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 18.

Mini-Preview: Michigan WBB vs. Central Michigan

WHAT	Michigan vs Central Michigan	[JD Scott]
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN	12:30 ET Wednesday, Nov. 25th
THE LINE	N/A
TELEVISION	BTN Plus ($)

Turn this on! Right now-ish! (If you have BTN Plus, that is. I took the plunge for hockey and women's hoops.) That's unfortunately as much of a preview as I can muster right now. Some opponent details from the official site:

Central Michigan is coming off a 23-6 campaign last season after averaging 76.6 points per game while allowing 70.7 to its opponents. CMU returns its three double-figure scorers from last season in Micaela Kelly (21.5 ppg), Molly Davis (14.5 ppg) and Kyra Bussell (13.9 ppg). The Chips are coached by former Wolverine Heather Oesterle (1999-2002), who is in her second year as head coach. It will be the first meeting between the two schools since 2006.

If you missed it, I strongly encourage you to check out matty blue's season preview diary.