Hoops Preview: UCF (redux)

ED-Seth: I reposted this because there was some kind of error with the original, which is here.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

THESE GRAPHICS NOW HAVE A VERY HANDY EXPLAINER, ALL HAIL SETH

Juwan Howard remained steadfast with his starting lineup against Ball State, so we will, too. Hunter Dickinson has still earned dangerman status while playing over half the team's minutes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

DID YOU MISS THE MULTIPLE LINKS TO THE EXPLAINER? HERE YOU GO.

UCF is playing sophomore Dre Fuller, a natural wing, as their de facto point guard in part because of some injury issues. Louisville grad transfer Darius Perry, the projected starter, missed the opener with an undisclosed injury. Sophomore backup Tony Johnson Jr. is the only other natural lead guard in the rotation and he exited the Auburn game with an undisclosed issue that required an MRI. That game was on Monday, so there's been some time to recover, but as best I can tell both are questionable at best to play.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

After coming achingly close to upsetting the Zion-led Duke squad in the 2019 tournament, UCF fell back to earn in 2020, going 16-14 (7-11 AAC) and finishing 117th in KenPom, both program worsts since Johnny Dawkins took over as head coach in 2015-16. No, Aubrey Dawkins doesn't have any eligibility left. Yes, I felt obligated to check. They're a young team that turned over a lot of players after last season

The CitroKnights won their season opener, 63-55, over an Auburn team that's now 1-2 (though the other loss was to #1 Gonzaga) and 75th on KenPom, nine spots down from their preseason projection. That's their only game thus far this season—their original opener against Oklahoma was canceled—and it was on Monday, so we'll get to see whether the #narrative is that they're well-rested or rusty depending on how the first few minutes play out.

Their lineup situation is in flux, or at least appears that way from the outside because of the undisclosed nature of the injuries to Perry and Johnson. That's put the playmaking onus on Dre Fuller, a natural off-ball player, to be the team's primary creator. He scored 13 points on 12 shooting possessions, salvaging poor finishing by getting to the line, and had five assists against three turnovers against Auburn. UCF scored only 12 points on 17 pick-and-roll possessions but had more success (14 points on 14 possessions) playing iso-ball.

There's also uncertainty in the frontcourt. Burly freshman Jamille Reynolds started against Auburn but picked up three fouls and two turnovers in only seven minutes. That may have forced their best (available) lineup onto the floor, as starting power forward Sean Mobley shifted to center and Oregon transfer CJ Walker, a former top-50 recruit, pulled down eight rebounds in 32 minutes off the bench.

Mobley sat out last year after transferring from VCU, where he was a light-rebounding stretch four who made 35% of his threes over two seasons. Turnovers have been an issue for him and he had a rough go against Auburn, failing to score on three shots, coughing up the rock three times, and finishing with four fouls in 24 minutes. Walker is an strong multi-positional defender, shot-blocker, and rebounder who really struggled to get any sort of shot to fall at Oregon. He'll attempt threes and went 1/2 on Monday but he was 9/31 from beyond the arc last year and made under 50% of his free throws.

Sophomore guard Darin Green is the team's most reliable outside shooter, making 42% of his 163 three-point attempts in his debut season, and he was in the starting lineup with Perry absent on Monday. He's got an excellent Just A Shooter™ profile, taking over 2/3rd of his shots from distance but converting above 50% on twos and 80% on free throws when he gets the opportunity and keeping his turnovers low. His shot chart is money:

Don't lose that guy.

Brandon Mahan has solidified his spot in the starting five after platooning at one of the wing positions last year. He's yet another transfer, having shot 38% from three at Texas A&M as a sophomore before making his way to Orlando, where he finished better inside but lost his touch from distance (30% 3P). He's an off-ball player who does much of his work shooting over or attacking closeouts.

If Darius Perry manages to suit up, he's a shoot-first point guard with a dangerous three-point shot who has issues when he ventures inside—his finishing was inconsistent over three years at Louisville and his turnover rate never dipped below 23%, though he at least starting distributing the ball a bit more as a junior. He had a particularly difficult time getting it going offensively against top-50 competition, posting an O-Rating below 80 in 11 such games last year.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

This is a three-game sample for Michigan and one for UCF, so the above isn't going to tell us too much. Last year, they finished with the #162 offense on KenPom, with their biggest issues being turnovers and poor outside shooting. UCF's defense snuck into the top 100 at #98; they were a terrible rebounding team that was pretty good at everything else.

Of note given the Oakland near-debacle: Synergy filed 18.8% of UCF's 2019-20 defensive possessions as zone defense and it was quite effective. While he's used it mostly as a change-up, Dawkins could decide to make Michigan prove they've learned how to take care of the ball when running zone offense.

THE KEYS

Get active. UCF is a team with turnover problems that presents some potential issues for Michigan if they can set up in halfcourt defense. The easy solution: force those turnovers and don't let them set up in the first place. After a passive opener, M's defense has created more TOs the last two games, and they can blow this game open if they're able to get out on the fast break. The Knights were great in late-clock defensive situations last year but merely average in transition.

Don't throw the ball to the zone. While UCF only played four possessions of zone defense out of 62 halfcourt trips against Auburn, film study may very well lead them to upping that rate significantly if their team has practiced it enough to be comfortable with playing it as their main defense. If they go that direction, I'd like to see Juwan Howard immediately counter with three wings (out of the main four of Wagner/Livers/Brown/Johns) and Hunter Dickinson, whose passing acumen is critical to picking apart a zone defense.

Attack the bigs early. I suspect a 285-pound three-star freshman who got into foul trouble right away in his first game isn't going to be able to avoid the same fate against Dickinson. Unless UCF breaks the glass on someone who didn't play at all on Monday, that'd mean the center is 6'8/235, and we get to watch Dickinson rampage again. I'd like to see that. One might even suggest it's a good reason to start Dickinson over Davis, though perhaps some Big Country post-ups could produce the same outcome.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 11.

The Wolverines have been moving the ball beautifully since the first half of the Oakland game. Keep that up and they should handle this one without too much trouble.