Quick heads up: We have new shirts in the MGoBlogStore including some in junior sizes.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan’s other team in Florida takes the court tonight with less on the line than the one staying down south, but a lot more than anyone thought would be riding on a trip to a mid-tier AAC team as they wrap up a nonconference portion of the season with one win to show for four attempts at tournament-plausible opponents. Win and they hold serve; lose and they’ll need some upsets in the Big Ten to avoid a bubbly spring. Their hosts are in a similar spot, with a close loss at home to Oklahoma and a blowout at Auburn their only results against dance hopefuls.

Johnny Dawkins’s Knights have made the tournament once in his five seasons—the one with his/our son Aubrey and Tacko Fall that was some Duke officiating away from upsetting Duke in the 2nd round. Last year’s Michigan team blew them out in Ann Arbor, reintroducing the Wolverine faithful to the concept of a back-to-the-basket big while feeding an off-the-bench freshman Hunter Dickinson or kicking out for Chaundee Brown triples. UCF has a bigger big and better scouting, Dickinson has added a right hook and some range, and Michigan’s still looking for a guard off the bench to bury a triple.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

I was close to giving Devante’ Jones a defensive cyan but he held Southern Utah’s rim-runner John Knight to 3/8 from the field and six turnovers. He gets another shot to prove himself this week since…

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

…UCF this time should have former Louisville transfer PG Darius Perry available, whereas last time these two played the Knights tried to roll with SG Dre Fuller. This time it’s Fuller who’s questionable; he missed a pair of walkover games and played 5 minutes against Temple but should be back for this one. Fuller lost his starting gig to Darrin Green this year after the two split time in 2020-’21.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

They had one problem last year. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

The CitroKnights return mostly intact from last year. Afore mentioned PG Darrius Perry got a draftable grade in tryouts after last season that apparently came with a mandate to get better at assists. He’s since raised that assist rate 11 points, cracking the top-30, but that’s come with a similar uptick in turnovers. He’s a major threat from the arc—38% lifetime, 46% so far this season—but shoots just 59% at the rim on a lot of attempts, a sign that defenses find it important to run him off the line. Understudy Darrius Johnson missed last season with an injury but hasn’t been effective enough to bump Perry to the two as planned.

Instead Darin Green has seized 75% of minutes at the off-guard spot. He’s still Just a Shooter™ on offense, though he buries jumpers at a high enough clip that UCF is allowing him to take more spot-ups inside the arc. Like Perry, his step-back is more dangerous than his drive, and he can extend his range or get it up quickly. Eli Brooks held him to 3/11 from the field last year and should remain glued to Green all game.

It’s probably not his fault he made Hunter’s first poster. [Campredon]

The other long ago transfer guard who’s since solidified a starting role is Brandon Mahan, once of Texas A&M. He’s been more of an off-ball Just-a-Shooter™ this season after venturing inside the line unproductively a lot last one. He’s also once again starting off the year on a cold streak, though he’s the kind of guy who can erupt for a 5/7 night.

Finally they return former top-50 Oregon recruit CJ Walker, an athletic but undersized traditional big whose offense comes from rebounds and putbacks. Walker is mostly on the court for his defense, which is game-changing unless he’s given a load too great to handle. UCF gives up a lot of three-pointers, and a big reason for that is a contested jack often looks like a better option than testing Walker inside. He’s been de facto backup center this year, which works defensively and fixes the spacing problems, but he doesn’t have the size to last against terror bigs. He will step out and take a three, burying half the six he’s taken this year to raise his career mark to 14/51 (28%), but that’s because teams sag off of him.

Walker will get there first. [Campredon]

Dawkins hit the transfer portal to get that kind of help, and returned with UNLV’s shot-blocker Cheik Mbacke Diong. The super senior’s block rate has doubled this year from four years in Las Vegas, which means it may be something of a mirage; he looked pretty floor-bound against Auburn and Oklahoma, and doesn’t contest much outside. His foul rate has come down significantly with age, but staying on the court has still been an issue this year. They’re thin behind him—Jamille Reynolds plays <14% of minutes and was the guy Dickinson took to school last year—so early whistles should be a factor in this one.

If they’re using Walker at the five that draws in W Isaiah Adams, a wild card in this game because he likes to drive to the basket and can do so with NBA explosion. He tried out for the League last year but has had a rough return so far, with his turnover rate ballooning and his already iffy three-point touch failing (he’s 3/17 on the season, 30.5% lifetime. He’s an effective defensive player and can draw fouls, though, so they like him better than Reynolds when it comes to that.

Adams may be in the process of losing his job to freshman Tyeem Freeman, who’s been an active and extremely effective slasher against bad competition. Against good competition he’s been shaky, with three turnovers in 12 minutes against Oklahoma and just two minutes played against Auburn.

THE TEMPO FREE

UCF tends to try to turn opponents into chuckers—they’re 345th in 3PA/FGA but opponents are making under 28% of those. Those numbers are extremes based on a walk of a schedule so far, but also carry wisdom: Walker awaits those who step into the lane, and his teammates tend to hunt for loose handles when you’re busy trying to get around him. Caleb Houstan and Brandon Johns will be advised to keep their lane adventures to a minimum.

Four Factors explanation

The CitroKnights will try to push the pace, attack the basket, and get to the free throw line or tip it back in.

Auburn blew them out on a terrible shooting night—Mahan and Green went a combined 1/12 from the arc—but Oklahoma lost track of Green while trying to check Perry’s blow-bys. Devante’ Jones snuck a few yards from the cyan zone, but he’ll need a productive follow-up versus a notch better competition.

THE KEYS

Put it up! UCF would love for you to dribble through a closeout then drive. If the ball comes to you outside and your name is Brandon Johns or Caleb Houstan or Terrance Williams or Brandon Johns or Brandon Johns or Brandon Johns Jr., and I mean *you* Brandon Johns Jr. not some other Brandon Johns, Shoot It.

Know whom you’re guarding. If it’s Green or Perry get ye to the arc and run him off of there as fast as you can. If it’s #21 or #34 let him be out there. Mahan has been struggling but he goes in the “best to guard him” bin until you’re sure he’s still broken.

Get Dickinson going. UCF hasn’t faced a true big yet with Diong, who was very opponent-variant at UNLV. It’s worth exploring whether his bonkers early season stats are more about whom he’s played than how.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.