THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#61 Michigan (11-9) vs #47 Penn State (13-7)
WHERE	Bryce-Jordan Center State College, PA
WHEN	Noon Sunday
THE LINE	Kenpom: PSU -4 Torvik: PSU -6
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Well: another missed opportunity for Michigan in a season full of them and it looks like this team is nowhere near the tournament and closing in on the NIT fast. I've run some Torvik teamcast scenarios and it looks like while Michigan isn't dead yet, their window is pretty narrow. They've got 11 games left and it looks like 8-3 gets them in and 7-4 puts them squarely on the bubble, with a bid hanging in the balance during the Big Ten tourney. Asking this team to go 8-3 down the stretch while they're missing Jett Howard for (probably) big chunks of it seems like a lot, but one good thing about the Big Ten is there's only one top-end team and Michigan isn't playing them again.

First up in achievable wins: Penn State. The Nittany Lions are another mediocre Big Ten team, but they've got a road win against Illinois and home wins over Indiana and Iowa so they have some tourney resume despite nothing of note in the nonconference. Torvik has them the second team out right now. Both teams will be playing with high intensity… unless Michigan reverts to their season-long doldrums.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Baker remains our projected starter at the three.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Pickett is in the kPOY top ten, which is incredibly impressive since that includes a team component and PSU is barely ranked higher than Michigan at #47.

THE THEM

This is a return game so we will refer you to the first preview for an overview of the roster. Updates:

• PG Jalen Pickett is a post-up monster reminiscent of Jalen Brunson. He's shooting 58% from the floor in Big Ten play. He never leaves the floor and has a 30% usage rate. He's not a horrible three point shooter but he's very, very focused on playing inside the arc.
• SF Seth Lundy's shooting struggles against high-level competition appear to be a sample size artifact. He's hitting threes at a 40% clip in Big Ten play. He's also getting to the line at double the rate he was last year.
• On the flip side of that, Drexel up-transfer Cam Winter has hit a wall and is struggling to an 88 ORTG in conference play.
• Myles Dread is turning in a Just A Shooter season for the ages. He has 5 two-point attempts on the season against 97 threes. Andrew Funk is not quite as extreme but is very firmly in the same box.
• C Kebba Njie had zero points on two shots in 20 minutes in the first matchup. Dickinson went for 17 in a middling offensive performance for him. The other 20 minutes at C were manned by a 6'6" freshman, Evan Mahaffey.

THE TEMPO FREE

Say what you want about Penn State, but they don't do average:

First is of course first; 362nd in not quite dead last. There are 363 D-1 teams. This is a team that gets exactly one shot on every possession and cans a ton of them. They are 20th in 3P%, with the large majority of their attempts coming from three snipers (Lundy, Dread, and Funk) hitting over 40%. Pickett generates more or less all of their shots, either directly or indirectly, often by playing Mini Zach Edey.

Defensively they're very passive and get very little rim protection, and here a flip to conference stats is informative. PSU's pretty good (60th) in two point defense overall; they're 12th in Big Ten play.  The defense is 12th overall, and the only thing they're good at is preventing OREBs.

THE KEYS

Pickett your poison. Michigan didn't want to double on Edey so I'm guessing they're not going to change their approach from the first game, when Pickett was given free reign to post Kobe Bufkin. That didn't go great—Pickett was 7/14 from two and 6/7 from the line—but Michigan held PSU to 9/28 from three (32%) and that was a major factor in a ten-point win.

Engaged Dickinson? The Dickinson Michigan had against Purdue is more like the Dickinson from the first two seasons, and to win on the road they're probably going to have to get more out of him than 17 points, no assists, and two TOs. PSU has a freshman post and a freshman wing pretending to be a post sometimes. If Dickinson is on point he should be catching the ball in spots that a double doesn't matter and putting up 30.

Can Dug see the corner? After an awful performance against Michigan State, Dug McDaniel has quietly put up solid games in four of his last five. Maryland was not so good; his other four games are all ORTGs around 110-120 with low TOs. I thought Craig's Trey Burke statistical comparison was seriously optimistic but he's right that McDaniel is learning to play within himself and hitting some shots.

Don't turn into a much worse basketball team in the last five minutes of a close game. Argh? Argh!

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

PSU by 4.