THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#75 Michigan (6-10, 1-4 B10) vs #42 Ohio St (12-4, 2-3 B10)	[Patrick Barron]
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon
THE LINE	Kenpom: OSU-1 Torvik: OSU-2
TICKETS	available
TELEVISION	Fox (streaming link)

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan Football just won the National Championship, as well as three straight Big Ten titles thanks to three straight victories over Ohio State, which hasn't beaten its rival in the one thing they care about since 2019. There are people walking the Earth with fully functional long-term memories who were not alive when Ohio State last beat Michigan.

Also the Detroit Lions won a Playoff game for the first time since I was eleven.

The sacrifice for this was Michigan Basketball, which hasn't won a game since EMU on December 16th, and hasn't defeated a Big Ten opponent at home since the overtime game against Wisconsin last February. Their losses this year have been like last year's. Since the start of December, the cagers fell to Oregon in OT, gave up a late lead to Indiana, fell to Florida in double-overtime, fell short of a comeback against McNeese State, finished a bucket short against Minnesota, and gave up a pair of double-digit halftime leads on the road against Penn State and Maryland. The last was the first of PG Dug McDaniel's six road game suspensions, with visits to Purdue and MSU on the horizon.

It's safe to say this season is pretty much dead. However the message boarders feel about it, the vibe from Athletics is Warde Manuel may give Juwan Howard—as John Beilein and Jim Harbaugh were given at similar points in their Michigan tenures—a chance to remake his program. Outcomes from here on are largely irrelevant. What is relevant is Michigan only has three games left on their schedule—all at home—that they're favored to win according to Kenpom. At 49 percent, this is the next closest. It would also make Ohio State fans feel bad, in addition to, you know, the football things.

As for OSU, they have an emphatic victory over Alabama, a not-as-good-as-it-looked win over UCLA, and a three-point loss at Penn State that they led by as much as 18 at one point. They're on a two-game losing streak right now.

[Hit THE JUMP for I'm half-assing it again because the other article I have open is a giant Neck Sharpies from the Championship Game.]

THE US

Me graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Home game so Dug is back in the lineup. Jackson is out. Jaelin Llewellyn was able to play a full game at Maryland but there was also a giant wrap on that knee and I didn't think he looked close to 100%.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Gayle has been dealing with something that's been affecting his shot and Middleton has been in and out of the lineup this year. They're both listed as questionable for this game but my guess is they play. Royal's thing was a flu and he's was practicing yesterday so expect him to play.

THE THEM

 

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Ohio State is yet another Big Ten team that's a 10th seedy version of last year's 6th seedy self.

PG Bruce Thornton Jr., son of the former Georgia cornerback, was a borderline top-50 recruit, and last year's breakout freshman who had a moderate NBA decision. Thornton is a thick-shouldered, high-volume shooter, but doesn't get sped up, and that makes him highly effective as a college player.

Defensively he can be a problem because of his physical build and long arms. He isn't extremely athletic, however, so Dug could give him the proverbial blow-by. They're putting a little too much on him offensively to the eye test, but the numbers say it's working; he's carrying a crazy 30/5 assist-turnover ratio against Tier A+B opponents and accounting for 28 percent of their possessions. His physicality and Ohio State's excellent rapport with Big Ten referees has also led to a ton of points at the free throw line, where he's no longer any kind of liability. The best strategy for Thornton is to cut off his drives early and have him shoot, especially lately—he was 1/5 against Wisconsin after an 0/7 day at Indiana from the arc.

SG Roddy Gayle, if available, is the one guy in the starting lineup who can take some pressure off of classmate Thornton. Gayle's all about ceiling—he's got an NBA body and athleticism which serves him well at getting to the rim. Actually getting the ball to go down has been an issue lately. So has holding onto it. There does seem to be a future 6-4 NBA point guard in him, but right now his vision and shot selection look…young. He's leading the team in possessions with a 27% turnover rate in conference, and taking a lot of bad twos. One defense he makes good use of his long frame, and is making fewer mistakes. Listed as questionable, this probably isn't the "Gayle Makes the Leap" game, but it's coming.

The third super sophomore is C Felix Okpara, who's developed enough to pass Zed Key. Okpara is a solid rim presence and excellent rebounder, but offensively he's there for dunks, putbacks, and picking up atrocious early second fouls on important bigs. He will launch a three, but is 1/7 in his career.

The other two starters were transfers from lower Big Ten programs. The more effective by far is stretch four Jamison Battle, a just-a-shooter who occasionally flashes as Not-Just-A. One of those times was against Michigan in December 2021. His 2022-23 season was damaged by a foot injury, but his shot is pure, and he can do damage if left in space for a long two. That gives Ohio State a relatively high floor for possessions, but Battle hasn't been taking nearly as many of those with the Buckeyes. He has been, and continues to be an effective player on the defensive glass.

SF Evan Mahaffey was an extra piece they picked up from the Penn State exodus this offseason. I have him at the three but he's more of a small big. When he scores it's mostly on putbacks; he's out there to be more of a physical defensive presence.

The Bench:

• W Scotty Middleton is a freshman version of Battle who's playing a just-a-shooter role right now. He has good length but is still kind of lost on defense, and less of a playmaker than he believes himself to be.
• C Zed Key has been around forever. He has an array of moves in the paint, none of which are "jumping" which makes him a problem defensively. For a below-the-rim guy, Key remains an effective rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He's another OSU foul magnet who probably wouldn't be in another uniform; if there's a conference record for and-one's he's probably close to it by now.
• PG Dale Bonner is a 40-year-old former JUCO who stuck in a backup role at Baylor because he cannot make a shot, or create one for that matter. OSU is mostly using him as a defensive replacement when Gayle needs a little coaching.
• W Devin Royal is one of two developmental freshman. He's a thicc boi who will get the burlywing tag when he grows up.
• G Taison Chatman is the other freshman OSU fans were excited about, but he's not making an impact this year.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

Conference-only four factors (Wis, IU, RU, PSU, Minn):

Holtmann could make an efficient offense out of the ingredients for tacos. This one is getting a lot of help from the offensive boards, but turnovers have been creeping up in conference play, and the shooting feels unsustainable. They wiped out Bama thanks to 23 and 29 points from Gayle and Thornton on 14 and 23 eFG, and an endless parade to the free throw line.

THE KEYS

Don't get bullied. Michigan's home court advantage isn't much, Dug is small, and Big Ten refs like to give the benefit of the doubt to the guy being audacious, which is Thornton's game and Key's game and Gayle's game and sometimes Battle's game too. If Crisler is still hung over from the football and Donovan Edwards's return this could get ugly.

Make them shooters. This is a sophomore team of fringe NBA prospects trying to show off their wares. Lock in, keep them in front of you, and keep things muddy and you'll end up with a lot of Thornton long two's.

The Dug and Reed Game. I think McDaniel can blow by these guys, and Reed should have an advantage when Key's in.

Shoot it Nkamhoua. Don't know why his trigger's been off lately.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Ohio State by 1.