THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

The greatest university with the word Ohio in its name faces non-directional non-correctional Michigan for the first time since knocking the 2011-'12 Big Ten champs (first Trey Burke team) out of the first round. Fortunately that is not the first round upset by Ohio that anyone but us remembers anymore.

Michigan has already dispatched one MAC team with green and white as its color scheme in Detroit this year, but that was a near run thing, and Eastern has actually fallen to the 300s in Kenpom since then. Ohio lost by a point at Belmont (#151), handled Cleveland State at home, then went cold from deep at Detroit Mercy last Wednesday. Michigan's coming off a hamblasting of Pitt on Thursday followed by a Friday pasting at the hands of an Arizona State team that shot twice its average from the floor.

This should be a get-back-on-track walk in the park, but everyone's feeling a little wobbly right now, including the Bobcats, who were expected to be more of a 100s team than 200s despite replacing all five starters. It would be really nice to see this young team get their feet under them and play a couple of boring blowouts at home before the nonconference season gets serious with Virginia in 9 days then the London game with Kentucky in two weeks.

At least this time the matchup seems pretty favorable. Ohio starts a couple of 6'8" guys in the frontcourt, one of them 225 pounds, and the biggest big they can scrounge up is a young-for-his grade Louisville transfer.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

I probably should have replaced Jace with Barnes for this one. Maybe I'll switch off games if they're getting equal minutes.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

Super-duper senior center Dwight Wilson III is one of two remaining pieces from the team that upset Virginia in the tournament. That was his first year at Ohio after three (two as a starter) for James Madison. He lost last year to injury, which was a major blow to the Bobcats' season. He's not tall--maybe closer to 6'7" than 6'8"--but that's never stopped Wilson from being an absolute monster on the boards and accomplished putback artist.

Wilson is a thick slab of muscle with broad shoulders and an array of old man moves. Versus MAC competition this has been a killer combination, but as you might imagine his 2PT% drops off a cliff when he runs into a team with size. The other scout on him is you can double him into putting it up, but he's upped his assist rate substantially in this young season and has never had a high turnover rate. As a defender he's never been much of a blocker and has to stay in the paint; UofD ran them out of the building by playing small and taking free triples.

Senior PG Jaylin Hunter, an Old Dominion transfer, has had a rough transition so far, with a 29% turnover rating outpacing his decent creation. That was a problem for him last year as well. He'll shoot more often from three, where he was 34% for ODU in 2021-'22, and take it to the basket and look for contact if he sees a lane. When he doesn't have it, Hunter is more than willing to put it up, and not great at getting it to fall. If he's hitting twos you are permitted to be mad.

Ohio runs out two more guards in the "six-foot" to six-foot range. SG Miles Brown--the one with the hair--is the only Bobcat who played significant minutes for them last year to make the starting lineup. Brown is more of a defensive pest than a defensive threat, but feels like the bigger problem for Michigan because he will get his own threes up, and because he's been exactly the kind of Not-Just-a-Shooter-but-Probably-Should-Be who suddenly Supermans up against Michigan. Drilling down, if you take away his drives off steals he's really been a Just-a-Shooter against any team with a defensive pulse (are we?). He's been hot too this season, his first after three years of coming off the bench, so it's possible his game took a step forward in the offseason. His big problem historically has been turnovers of his own.

The other 6-ish foot guard is DeVon Baker, who spent last year at Tulane after three seasons at UNC-Ashville. Baker was a starter there his first two seasons, first at point, then taking on a role as an off-guard. He's a pull-up guy who will take a lot of two-point jumpers. He's a career 32% shooter from the arc, but has been money this season (5/10) so far, so leaving him alone is inadvisable.

PF AJ Clayton is the other returnee from last year who moved up from the bench to start. He's a another guy who turns into Just-a-Shooter if you up the competition, though in his case he's at 39% career from the Arc. An elevated block rate and good rebounding numbers thus far this year are probably competition-based. There isn't much danger of him putting it on the floor, and he doesn't have the feet or quickness to keep up if he catches a guard.

The bench:

• Winger Ben Roderick was demoted from starting the last two years after an awful 2021-'22 (23%) season from outside the arc. He's the other guy left over from the UVA upset. He's a streaky three-and-D type with a high foul rate who's looking to put the ball up when it comes to him.
• Center Gabe Wiznitzer is 6'11"/240 and transferred in from Louisville this year after two seasons without much playing time or development. He was headed to the top-100 in the composite until he reclassified to the COVID year, and then L'ville ripped his redshirt off for an extra 5 fouls, so Wiznitzer's spiritually more of a redshirt freshman than a junior. He seems paint-bound and doesn't contribute much on offense.
• Wing Olumind Adelodun is your typical defense-only wing. The last two games were the first he's played outside of garbage time and the three threes he put up against UDM weren't close to going in, but he shows up with energy.
• The rest of the bench are freshmen. Stretch big Aidan Hadaway got all of his non-garbage minutes against Cleveland State, which is the game I didn't watch. G Ajah Sheldon had a couple of steals in his debut.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

The small team is small.

THE KEYS

Box out Wilson! Dickinson has five inches on him but so did Jay Huff and Wilson battled him to a draw. There can't be another lapse of focus like against ASU.

Size 'em out. Ohio wants to play three point guard-sized guards and two 6'8" forwards; Michigan wants to have their Jett Howard and Terrance Williams II too. Which team gets to keep their best five on the floor will decide if this is a game or a laugher.

Oh long twos, fall in hoops no more. I would prefer to not have to wait for the shot chart to come out to be exonerated for not giving the shitty shot makers enough credit.

Guards, make a three. Bufkin and Llewellyn are now a combined 1/24 from three. Bufkin's release looks fine and JL was a 38% shooter on high volume last year. Correction time.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 17.