THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#97 Michigan (8-14, 3-9 B10) vs #52 Nebraska (16-8, 6-7 B10)
WHERE	Champions Circle Arena Lincoln, NE
WHEN	Saturday, 6:30 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: Neb-7 Torvik: Neb-7
TELEVISION	BTN (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Well whaddaya know, Michigan won a basketball game. Over a top-11 opponent and the projected top three-seed no less. Granted it was the most fraudulent Wisconsin team in a minute, but if our stink's gonna rub off on someone this year, nobody deserves it more than the Badgers.

Doing the same to Nebraska would be ruder, and surprisingly more far-fetched. The Huskers are currently just on the good side of the bubble. They don't travel well; a recent overtime loss to Illinois was the closest the Huskers have come this season to a Big Ten road win. At home howevever they've taken out Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, Kansas State, Indiana, and Purdue(!), which victory is probably what's holding them in the tournament. Their remaining Big Ten schedule is a lot easier, but Road Nebraska is eminently capable of coughing up games at Indiana, Ohio State, and even Michigan.

With Dug still serving his road suspension (this will be Game 4 of the projected 6), and Jaelin Llewellin's knee in no shape to keep up with Keisei Tominaga and Jamarques Lawrence, this one doesn't have much suspense. How things have changed.

[After THE JUMP: Nebraska hasn't changed, but the Big Ten has.]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Dugless.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Nebraska's bench is a little banged up. Stretch Eli Rice (ankle) might be playable. Jarron Coleman, the 6-5 PG who played three non-consecutive years at Ball State around one at Mizzou, has been out for most of the Big Ten season with an undisclosed something that may just be "not any good." Blaise Keita was to be the backup C this year but has been out all season with an ankle injury; he may return at the end of the month, and is only worth mentioning because that's why the Huskers don't have any depth at the five.

THE THEM

Other peoples'  coaches kids be like this. [Campredon]

There isn't a team in college basketball that makes it easier to identify who's on the court.

If you see a buzzcut, 6-10 Dutchman who looks like the pimply younger brother of that too-literal guy from Ted Lasso, and he's launching a three, you're looking at C Rienk Mast. The Bradley transfer is a legit threat from deep. There was a THJ-like sophomore slump that drags his career average down, but he's since learned to shoot over contests, and is making those as often as his open ones. Even the bad year he was hitting half of the open ones, so Mast might be even more dangerous than his stats show. He had a 6/8 night to defeat Ohio State a few weeks ago,

…and scored 18 points efficiently against Zach Edey to key that upset. Note the little poke-away at 2:15. Mast isn't much of a defender, but he has an array of little under-your-skin moves like that.

The Hair is Josiah Allick, a local who played center for Bill Donlon's Kansas City teams, tried moving up to New Mexico for a year, and found he's more of a forward. They will play him at center when Mast needs a break. He'll only take a three if you leave him wide open. Mostly he's there to collect tip-backs and the like. He likes to attack the boards, and while his hands aren't good enough to come down with the results himself, he creates a lot of extra possessions when a teammate can corral the loose ball. Consummate lunch pail character.

The lethal outside shooting (39% career on hundreds of contested attempts) wing who's cutting to the basket all the time is Charlotte transfer SF Brice Williams. An excellent athlete, Williams is a good finisher, is a stepback threat from anywhere, and has been working on a monster alley-oop dunk that's gonna happen one of these days. He will also create more than his share of blocks. Even if he's not their top scoring option by design, Williams is the type of player who's likely to give our Williams problems. Most of his threes are contested, and he hits 43% of those. His jumper is the same inside the line, but a decent floor for a late clock option, which has been raising his usage. Williams is also looking to create for teammates; his 9 assists went along with his excellent work on the boards to win him the Kenpom MVP of the Purdue upset despite single-digit scoring. If you're thinking Michigan could have used a guy like Williams in the last umpteen years, tell Biff Poggi to start going to basketball games I guess?

Defense has been an issue, even if he seems like the kind of guy who'd be able to develop there. Nebraska sticks to man defense almost exclusively, and Williams does okay in that regard. But there are attention lapses or times he's trying to do too much that might be more about his teammates than himself.

SG Keisei Tominaga is the headband-wearing dervish you probably remember from last year, a career season he finished just under-120 in ORtg and just at 40% from the arc. Several of your friendly bloggers have suggested Michigan try to poach this guy, because the thought of him playing next to Dug is too delightful to contemplate without action. Tominaga isn't a creator for others, but his ability to launch a Steph Curry three means everyone's trying to get him the ball. Michigan got to be the first team to experience Tominaga's Nebraska-developed quickness in the lane. He's become an excellent finisher despite starting his career as exclusively an outside guy who was somehow was playing for Billy Gillespie in the JUCO ranks a couple of years ago. He also gets steals. And wears a headband.

PG Jamarques Lawrence should have remained Just-a-Shooter, but since nobody else on this team can play point it's fallen to him or the coach's kid. Lawrence is more of a combo guard playing out of position, and is having a THJ sophomore slump from outside (19/68 after hitting 28/75 as a freshman). He's seeing the court better lately, but every time they try to stuff more usage on him the turnovers pop out. After a miserable night against Illinois they took Lawrence out of the starting lineup last week to roll with Keisei, and Lawrence responded with a nice 12 points and two steals, two assists, and two turnovers.

The Bench:

• Former Bama transfer forward Juwan Gary got the "burlywing" designation but I thought of bringing back the hammer. His game is primarily inside, and though he's too short to help them at center, they'll run pick and roll action for him. He's not a shooter, though he'll put them up. He's also the only guy on the roster you could categorize as a defensive specialist.
• Winger CJ Wilcher looks like a Just-a-Shooter and is one. He's been hanging out on the arc for three years now, and will occasionally take an open lane or create a play to suggest he's moving towards Not-Just-a, but he's not a Not-Just-a yet by a good margin.
• PG Sam Hoiberg is the afore mentioned walk-on son of coach who will come in and shoot a three and poke away a pass and do all the things sons of coaches do when they're not Jace Howard.
• PF Eli Rice is a true freshman who'll be a pretty good stretch four in a year. He may not play in this one.

THE TEMPO FREE

Possessions against Nebraska's offense are frantic and quick. Your possessions take forever since they're all back, and a few of them have "attack this matchup" signs on them that you will then be allowed to attack.

THE KEYS

Don't let it rain. Tominaga and Williams and Mast came to shoot threes and chew bubblegum. I don't know why the bubblegum, but thruck be a lady. Seriously guys spit that out it's gross.

Don't, like, give up 30 to a Charlotte transfer. Why is this something I am sure Michigan is going to do? Is it because we haven't had a wing here since Chaundee Brown? Yes, probably.

Don't turn it over low. Nebraska dares you to keep up with their shooting by putting Mast and Allick in a wastepaper basket while having them poke the ball away just enough times to prevent that from happening. If you're Purdue the prospect of getting RNG'd in Lincoln is a teeth-grinder. If you're Michigan you welcome the fair shot, unless there are like 7 Reed turnovers.

Llewellin rain is okay. He's due for a regression mean but this team doesn't guard the perimeter very well so maybe that can wait.

Feed off the crowd. Underrated fanbase that smells a tourney opportunity is gonna be a great environment for basketball. For a Michigan basketball team that's played some sleepy games at home this year, the road environment might be a boon.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Nebraska by a touchdown (extra point good).