THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#27 Michigan (13-9, 4-7 Big Ten) vs #9 Michigan State (16-7, 8-4)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN	Noon Eastern Saturday, Feb. 8th
THE LINE	MSU -1 (KenPom) MSU -0.5 (Torvik)
TELEVISION	FOX PBP: Gus Johnson Analyst: Jim Jackson Sideline: Lisa Byington

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

We have... good news?

Am told that Michigan's Isaiah Livers went through a full practice yesterday and looked pretty good. A positive step for his status Saturday vs Michigan State.

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) February 7, 2020

Fingers crossed. We've left him off the graphic because we do not like getting yelled at.

Speaking of uncertainty, bracket forecasters are having a tough time getting a read on Michigan. They're the last eight-seed on the matrix, but they're left off three of the 99 brackets entirely. Meanwhile, they're as high as a seven-seed on multiple brackets updated yesterday with a majority of projections putting them in the 8-11 range. Critically, they remain ahead of three other Big Ten bubble teams: Indiana (10-seed), Purdue (11), and Minnesota (first four out).

Bart Torvik currently gives them a 75% chance of making the field. A win tomorrow would go a long way towards moving off the bubble, though the Wolverines would still have work to do.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LAST TIME

[Campredon]

Michigan State took an early lead, held firm, and then pulled away late for an 87-69 win at the Breslin Center. Juwan Howard ran onto the court in frustration at a no-call to pick up a technical foul. In related news, Jon Teske led the team with 15 points and pulled down five boards in only 25 minutes before fouling out. On the other end, Cassius Winston (32 points, nine assists) and Xavier Tillman (20 points, six blocks) formed an unstoppable pick-and-roll tandem.

Our coverage: Preview. Recap:

It's hard to do much but tip your cap.

Juwan Howard, Zavier Simpson, and Michigan's defense threw everything they had at Cassius Winston. When Winston hit a series of pull-ups against drop pick-and-roll coverage, the Wolverines started trapping, only for MSU's All-American senior to find his teammates for layups. And that was just in the halfcourt. Winston's ability to constantly push the pace, combined with poor transition defense, led to a lot of easy buckets, even after Michigan makes.

Winston was a marvel, scoring a career-high 32 points on 24 shooting possessions with nine assists against only two turnovers. He punished mismatches, controlled the flow of the game, and made shot after shot.

Game column: 

We are all richer for having the Zavier Simpson experience.

But it must be said that he is not Cassius Winston. This is only a problem when Michigan plays Cassius Winston, but for the fourth straight time it's been the problem. Last year MSU screened and rescreened Winston until Michigan's defense developed cracks while MSU switched Tillman onto Simpson on ball screens; Michigan could not shoot over this or punish the post mismatch.

Winston went NBA Jam in this game, scoring 32 points on 24 shot equivalents with 9 assists against two turnovers. There was a sequence of awful stepback threes and off the dribble floaters that all went down, and the worst thing is that you expected them to go down. Michigan threw all its various pick and roll coverages at Winston and it didn't matter.

Simpson doggedly scored a couple of offensive rebounds and a steal, had 8 assists and two turnovers himself, and scored 14 points on 20 shot equivalents. You can add an asterisk and convert one of those shot equivalents to a Kobe assist if you want. It still doesn't get Simpson anywhere near Winston. And Michigan can't make that up without Isaiah Livers and/or three-point shooting better than putrid. Thus that.

Picture pages:

Johns eventually made a three-pointer on his fourth attempt of the game, though it came after a couple hesitant outside shots that didn't change the way MSU played him. This positioning and decisiveness is what Michigan desperately needs out of Johns while Livers is out of the lineup:

Don't get me wrong: I'm encouraged by Johns's development this season. He had some really promising moments in this game, particularly when going to work down low, and his offensive rebounding can be a legitimate game-changer.

The Livers injury is forcing some players outside of their comfort zone, however, and if he's out an extended period of time, a lot is going to ride on Johns's confidence in his shot.

If Livers is able to go, that last bit becomes less relevant, which would be nice even though Johns has played well of late.

THE THEM

Because these teams have already played, click over to the previous preview if you need a refresher on the full MSU rotation. Instead of rehashing, this is going to be an update combined with a look at matchups.

Since the last matchup, State has fallen off their perch atop the conference, losing road games at Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin, then most recently dropping a home game against Penn State. They've beaten Minnesota twice in that span and defended home court against Wisconsin and Northwestern.

Tom Izzo is still figuring out the rotation. 6'7", 215-pound freshman Malik Hall has started the last four games, replacing sophomore Marcus Bingham—who's struggled on offense in conference play—at power forward. While Hall doesn't possess Bingham's remarkable length and shot-blocking ability, he's a more valuable offensive player, shooting 40% on three-pointers and ranking in the top ten in the conference in offensive rebounding rate. Bingham's playing time has waned while Hall is now consistently playing 20+ minutes.

Izzo has also flirted with starting talented freshman Rocket Watts over either Aaron Henry or Gabe Brown but neither move stuck for more than a game. Watts is carving out a bigger role regardless, playing at least 25 minutes in three of the last four games. He's getting more effective at attacking the basket both in transition and halfcourt play; he's still mostly a one-trick pony, though, as he's not shooting well from deep and doesn't pass much for a guard.

While Cassius Winston deserves the attention he gets, he's such a rock that there's not much to break down; he's going to hit a few threes, nail a maddening number of midrangers, score somewhere between 15 and 30 points, dish out five to ten assists, and generally control the flow of the game. One potential game-changer: if Livers is indeed playing, Michigan can use him as a changeup defender on Winston and give Zavier Simpson a break, an option that wasn't available the last time around.

Meanwhile, MSU tends to go as Xavier Tillman goes. He's scored in single digits in only eight of MSU's 23 games; the Spartans are 2-6 in those games and 14-1 when he gets into double digits. Four of his single-digit outputs have come in the last seven games, with the low point a 3-for-15 performance from the field in a one-point loss at Wisconsin. MSU has to roll with the good and the bad, though, because...

cupcakes removed, via Hoop Lens

...they're a disaster when he's not on the floor.

Both of Tillman's backups—Bingham and 6'8" sophomore Thomas Kithier—are better suited to playing alongside him than filling in for him. In the same sample of games as above, MSU allows opponents to shoot 58.5%(!) on two-pointers when Bingham is at center; in 110 possessions, they've been outscored by 28 points per 100 possessions. The defense is, somehow, even worse with Kithier at the five; those lineups let opponents shoot 63.6%(!!!) on twos and get outscored by 31 points per 100 possessions. Kithier is expected to return after a one-game absence due to the flu.

The other option at center is little-used freshman Julius Marble, a 6'8", 235-pound freshman with better on/off numbers who hasn't earned Izzo's trust yet. He's finishing and rebounding well but only playing one or two shifts a game; he's yet to surpass nine minutes in a conference game. At some point you'd think Izzo would give him more of a shot; it'd fit right in with this season if he was unleashed to great effect against Michigan.

Brown, the Ypsi native, is a picks-his-spots sniper posting 60/42/95 shooting splits in Big Ten play but on only 11% usage and 14% of the team's shot share when he's on the court. He's a lanky, athletic defender, much like fellow wing Henry, a similar player who's able to take on more offense but hasn't neared Brown's efficiency.

We'll probably see a few minutes each from glue guy Kyle Ahrens and backup point Foster Loyer. Loyer, in particular, can be targeted when Michigan has the ball, but they cannot let him loose behind the three-point arc, where he's shooting 50%. 

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

State boasts the Big Ten's #2 offense and #1 defense; they're first in eFG% on both ends of the floor. They shoot well, rebound well, block more shots than any other B1G squad, and effectively defend the arc. When Tillman is on the floor and playing well, there aren't many weak spots on this team.

There is one glaring such spot, however, and that's in the turnover department, where MSU is second-worst in both giving up and creating them. Michigan only won the turnover battle 13-10 in the first matchup, though Tillman coughed up five on his own.

THE KEYS

Find a coverage that kinda works. Winston and, to a lesser extent, Tillman are going to get theirs. If Michigan can find a way to make them work harder for their points than the first game, though, that'd certainly help even things up. Winston shot the Wolverines out of drop coverage last time, then Tillman feasted when Juwan Howard had them hedge/trap instead.

Given how much MSU's performance tends to ride on getting second-banana production from Tillman, I'd like to see Howard try drop coverage again. If Winston feasts on floaters and midrangers—he's shooting 44% on two-pointers away from the rim, per Torvik—and Tillman (32% 3P) rattles in a pick-and-pop three-pointer or two, so be it. That's preferable to Tillman dunking Michigan to death and causing the defense to rotate off of shooters.

Regardless of how Howard chooses to defend the pick-and-roll initially, he'll probably have to switch it up on occasion; Winston is too experienced a point guard to be flummoxed by the same coverage for an entire game.

Get the hell back. I never went back and counted because I try not to make myself angry without good reason; suffice it to say, Michigan gave up way too many easy baskets in transition in the first game, particularly after made baskets. Those are inexcusable lapses unless one of your players has crashed into the baseline after a layup and can't get back; that wasn't at the root of M's issues most of the time. Winston, Watts, and company kept outrunning their defenders up the floor. The Spartans are great at attacking in these situations; there's no reason to be in these situations in the first place.

Feast when Tillman sits. You probably saw this coming if you read the whole post. Unfortunately, fouling Tillman out has proven difficult even in the center-rich Big Ten—he's playing an impressive 86% of the team's minutes in conference games while boasting the conference's third-best block rate and 11th-best steal rate and still only fouling 2.7 times per 40 minutes. Still, Tillman can't reasonably go full-on for 40 minutes, and Michigan should get a shift or two with him on the bench; they need to capitalize.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

MSU by 1.

Shooting probably makes the difference in this one, and that's not great news for Michigan.