This past weekend the Michigan Hockey team tangled with the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, a marquee series for Brandon Naurato's team and their first real crack at Minnesota, after the fall series was washed out by the RSV outbreak in Michigan's locker room. Both games featured late Michigan leads in regulation that they were unable to finish off. The two OT sessions yielded a win for each team and in the end it was a split for both the PWR and B1G standings. Today we'll go through some takeaways from the weekend, B1G results, and preview Penn State: 

 

A Collection of Takes from the Weekend 

- Hello, Gavin Brindley. My biggest takeaway from what took place in the Twin Cities was the performance of Gavin Brindley, who had a strong offensive performance on a new-look line. Dropping Mackie Samoskevich down to the second line, Naurato promoted Brindley up to play with Dylan Duke and Adam Fantilli. Brindley has had a bit of a ho-hum freshman season, but one that internet scouts have seen the positive spots in. It was just a matter of translating those moments into production, and we got a glimpse into what that looks like against Minnesota. Brindley had four points on the weekend, a goal and three assists, and these were not unrelated secondary assists. They were key plays. 

This one I like because it feels the most repeatable, an example of the speed that Brindley possesses to become a real threat off the rush: 

Adam Fantilli with the finish! pic.twitter.com/gvMng2qmBw

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 22, 2023

Brindley gets the first pass up the wall, carries it through the neutral zone, then criss-crosses with Duke and puts on the jets, turning the corner on the D, trying to ram it on the goaltender, who kicks out the rebound and it's in position for Fantilli to finish off. Brindley was helped some by playing on Olympic Ice at Mariucci, more space along the walls for a smaller player like him, but the transitional play is something that can absolutely become a pivotal part of his game. 

This next play is a WOWZA: 

Gavin Brindley strips Johnson of the puck and Adam Fantilli finishes it off for his 12th goal of the season pic.twitter.com/HjTmf1eMoP

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 21, 2023

It's going on his 2023 NHL Entry Draft highlight reel without question, and the best play he's made all year. Brindley strips a veteran defenseman, Ryan Johnson, of the puck along the wall, zooms around the net, draws Minnesota players in and then slips a pass into the exposed space on the far side where Adam Fantilli is, who fires a quick shot in. A good shot from Fantilli, sure, but this play is all Brindley and it's incredibly impressive. Given Brindley's size, he's not expected to be winning a ton of board battles in college hockey, but he gets the puck free here from his tenacity with the stick. That's a play that NHL scouts will be very interested in seeing. The remainder of the play, though, that's all skill and why Brindley's still got a shot to go in the first round. A cerebral pass, one that takes good vision and the playmaking ability to execute. 

Brindley is a key to Michigan's stretch run, the kind of player who could come on strong and help the Wolverines get hot headed into the postseason. If he follows this up, perhaps through chemistry with Fantilli, and begins looking like a player who could indeed go in the first round of the draft, that raises Michigan's ceiling substantially. We always knew it may take time for an undersized, just-turned-18 freshman to get going and now we're in the part of the season where it might be happening. Exciting!

[AFTER THE JUMP: More takes]

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Closing games out. The next thing we need to discuss is the nature of these two contests, with Michigan holding one goal leads headed into the third period in each and not getting regulation wins in either. In both cases, they got pretty far, but surrendered the equalizer with under five minutes to go. Pretty demoralizing, but I will say they were not complete replicas of each other. The Friday game was a bit of a concerning attempt to finish a game off, with Michigan getting caved in until Minnesota finally got one by Portillo. Shots were 18-6 Gophers(!) in the third period, with the Wolverines generating next to nothing offensively, but also not bogging Minnesota down in the neutral zone either. There was a lot of time in the Michigan defensive zone, Minnesota was ringing the bar several times and peppering Portillo, not a sustainable way to try and win. 

Saturday was much cleaner, shots on goal pretty even, more balanced and workmanlike from Michigan. And the play itself that tied it was much more flukey, as opposed to Jackson LaCombe's BOMB on Friday night. It was a bummer the way things tumbled on Saturday, but I will say that I was impressed by the improvement in game control. It took the previous core (Power/Brisson/Beniers/Bordeleau/etc) until midway through their second season when they started to really grasp how to put the clamps on a team, so for this new core, it's not something we expect right away. I will be watching to see how they protect leads this weekend, should they have one, but it does seem they're getting closer after the blown lead bonanza that was the early season. 

[Bill Rapai]

- Penalty discussion???? I got text message on Friday night asking if Michigan had gone through a single B1G weekend without a game misconduct this season. The answer is yes, both the first PSU and Minnesota series were without misconducts, but the sentiment stands. Michigan continues to be hit with five minute majors rather regularly, as they did on Friday night when Mark Estapa was flagged for one. I thought the Estapa call was pretty clear cut based on how college hockey chooses to enforce the rule, but here we are again having this through-the-looking-glass debate about these major penalties and why they happen to Michigan.

Last season Michgian was one of college hockey's most penalized teams, 13.9 PIM/game, fifth in the country. The rest of the top 12 were all terrible teams, which intuitively make sense- you generally get penalized for defending, on plays where you don't have the puck. Terrible teams are defending a lot and never have the puck and have to resort to tripping/grabbing/etc to survive. But Michigan was the #1 overall seed last year. Huh? This season, Michigan is 8th in PWR, yet clock in second in the country in penalties, up to 16.3 PIM/game.

It doesn't make a ton of sense that a high possession, speed and skill team that is in no way trying to emulate the Big Bad Bruins or the Broad Street Bullies to win is penalized that much. I can't really explain it, but this is definitely just a Michigan thing. The five minute major rule sucks across NCAA Hockey for reasons I've detailed before, but Michigan winding up in the sin bin so often and hit with these misconducts is a Michigan-specific problem. The other top B1G teams are 12th (OSU, who plays physical on purpose), 58th (Minnesota), and 60th (PSU). Michigan is an outlier for a second straight year as a very good team that takes a ton of penalties. 

Why is that? Again, I don't really know. We talked on the HockeyCast this week about ways to solve this problem and my #1 recommendation if Brandon Naurato asks me (why would he?) is do not hit guys when their back is to you and they're against the boards. Period. That one is easily preventable. Secondly, keep the elbows down. Hit with your torso and chest, keeping the elbows tight to your body and not flared out. There are majors that are going to happen randomly because the game moves so fast, but those two I've outlined, hits from behind face-first into the boards and elbows to the head, are two of the most common majors I see and can probably be coached out. It's probably time Michigan talks about coaching that out of the players. 

- A quick Jacob Truscott salute. Truscott has mostly been a merely solid defenseman during his three seasons at Michigan, not known for a ton of offense, but he had a very nice weekend offensively and deserves to be saluted for such. He makes a great off-puck read here: 

Jacob Truscott relentless effort gives Michigan the 4-3 lead pic.twitter.com/NfqyxvYZ8z

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 22, 2023

He takes the initial shot from the point, reads how the play is developing, and makes the back-side cut to get the pass and has a yawning cage to fire it into. Then he got the OT winner: 

Jacob Truscott WINS it in OT! pic.twitter.com/zFeSkRp5fc

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 22, 2023

This play is mostly Luke Hughes and incredibly lazy Minnesota defense, but Truscott gets the pass all alone and delivers a great shot to beat Justen Close. Truscott has seven career NCAA goals, and two of them came on Saturday night. Well done, sir. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Our usual B1G/NCAA Updates 

Team	GP	Points	Pt%	Conf. Record
Minnesota	16	37	.771	11-2-1-2
OSU	16	27	.562	9-7-0-0
Penn State	16	27	.562	8-5-0-3
MSU	16	24	.500	6-7-3-0
Michigan	14	18	.429	4-6-2-2
Notre Dame	16	20	.417	5-8-2-1
Wisconsin	14	9	.214	3-11-0-0

MSU was off this weekend, all three B1G series ended in both teams getting three points, so nothing much changed over the weekend. Ohio State dropped three points against Wisconsin, only the Badgers' third regulation win in conference play this season (a game that they thoroughly controlled too!). Penn State and Notre Dame traded wins, though as you'd expect, PSU massively outshot and dominated possession. And of course, Michigan and Minnesota each took three points with both games going to OT. Not much to update here, though I will note that we're now at the part of the season where it's now or never for Michigan to make a run. They've got ten games left in the season and six of them are at home, while two more are at neutral sites. With just two true road games remaining, this is where you want to see the Wolverines bank let's say, seven regulation wins and maybe get an OTL in there too. If the team is serious about being a contender to do damage in March and April, those are the sort of results you want to see, a real heating up period.

Finishing like that would leave the Maize & Blue with 40 points, requiring Notre Dame to play nearly invincible hockey to finish ahead (not likely). It would also require MSU to play at a .667 Pts% and it helps that Michigan has two head-to-heads with both ND and MSU, so they can control their own destiny for home ice advantage in a first round series. Jumping PSU or OSU is harder, but they have H2H series with both those teams too. If either of those teams play .500 or slightly below the rest of the way and Michigan finishes on the sort of heater I described, the Wolverines could climb into that 2/3 slot. Not easy, but possible. Now or never. 

As for the NCAAs, not much changed either. Like I've said in previous weeks, merely playing .500 hockey the rest of the way, provided you take care of Wisconsin at home, has you coasting into the tourney. Fighting to a draw in Minneapolis did not change that. What's interesting about PWR this season is that while the B1G is pretty static week to week, the other conferences, which lack those non-conference win anchors to keep the league upright and grounded, have wild results week to week. A single bad loss can eject a team from safely in the picture to outside the bubble, so projecting the tournament is difficult. Right now it's fair to say that the big four B1G teams in PWR are pretty safe (Minn/PSU/OSU/Michigan), as are St. Cloud State, Denver, Quinnipiac, and likely Boston U.

It gets much more interesting after that. Michigan non-con opponent WMU is at #9 and probably alright, but it's a weak NCHC and bad losses over the next six weeks could sink them. Then there are the CCHA teams, Michigan Tech and Minnesota State, one of which will (presumably) get an autobid and the other is firmly on the bubble. There's also the next two ECAC teams, Harvard and Cornell, who are in tenuous situations, as are the next two B1G teams, MSU and Notre Dame. They have some cushion, but have to keep punching in this brutally tough B1G to stay in the hunt. The jostling between these teams is going to be fascinating over the next month or so, with some big time movement expected (watch out for Alaska at #21!!). 

 

[David Wilcomes]

A Quick PSU Preview

The Penn State Nittany Lions come to town this weekend for a series that has been long overdue. PSU was Michigan's first B1G opponent, way back in early November. The Wolverines went into Hockey Valley and played one of the worst games they've played all season in the Friday night contest, getting outshot 49-17, including 1st and 3rd periods where they registered 4 and 3 shots, respectively. It was an odd game, one where Michigan appeared a step slow and almost sick (turns out, that wasn't the sick weekend). They were lethargic and totally overmatched. Noah West, starting in net that weekend, had a great showing, stopping 46 of 48 shots he faced (.958!), but Michigan did next to nothing to help him and lost 3-0. 

We expected a better showing in the Saturday game and got it, a game that took place during the Rutgers football game. Michigan got a couple goals from Mackie Samoskevich, grabbed an early lead, and were keeping pace in the shot column with shot-happy PSU through 2.5 periods but then the wheels fell off. They surrendered three goals in ~four minutes of game time, knocked off their feet and battered, with the energy seesawing back towards PSU. Thankfully, the team salvaged a win with Adam Fantilli's quick OT goal, getting them two points, but they should've had three. Like I wrote earlier, protecting leads... a theme. 

That was PSU's first loss of the season, and since that time they've basically been a .500 team in conference play. They've split with MSU, Minnesota, OSU, Notre Dame (x2), and had a regulation loss and a shootout loss to MSU during their trip to Munn. In the non-con, they swept Alaska and RIT, the latter of whom is currently the favorite to get the Atlantic Hockey autobid into the NCAAs. They're a good team, but I really don't see them as better than Michigan. They've pummeled an easy non-con (much easier than Michigan's slate) and then batted .500 in the B1G. Their main difference compared to Michigan is doing so more crisply and with less ugly moments (no regulation loss to Wisconsin), which you'd expect from a veteran team that rolled over nearly their entire roster to this season. 

That experience helped PSU start the season strong and they feature a diverse array of scorers. Like they have for the entirety of their time in D1 under Guy Gadowky, PSU is a shoot-and-retrieve team that fires from everywhere and forechecks aggressively to put pressure on the opposition. PSU is not a lockdown defensive team and their playing style gives up chances the other way, but they finally have a goalie they can trust for the first time since Peyton Jones departed, Liam Souliere and his .921 SV%. He was my player to watch for them this season and Souliere has delivered. Senior Kevin Wall leads the team with 12 goals, but otherwise they roll a deep cast of forwards, and a lot of them upperclassmen. They don't have much NHL talent, but they're well coached and play system hockey to achieve positive results. Good, yes. Beatable? Absolutely. A sharp performance from Michigan this weekend means six points, and being at home (where Michigan has had little trouble with PSU in the past), that should be the expectation. I want to see statement wins this weekend from Naurato's squad, and the #3 team in PWR is a good target for that.