Michigan Hockey took things outdoors this weekend against Ohio State, the second game of a two game set with the rival Buckeyes. After a tight and scoreless game for nearly 35 minutes, four goals allowed in fifteen doomed the Wolverines and ended their weekend with just one point taken out of a possible six. It's the first roadblock for the squad in their scorching-hot second half and now with one week to go in the regular season, stakes for the B1G chase have changed significantly. We'll be looking at that + breaking down the OSU series and then previewing Notre Dame today: 

 

Talkin' OSU 

This was always going to be an interesting series for Michigan given the way that the Buckeyes challenged the Wolverines the first time around at Yost. Ohio State places immense pressure on Michigan through a hyper-aggressive offensive zone forecheck, using sturdy forwards to test Michigan's lighter, puck-moving defensemen. This weekend was not the total swarm that the first series was, but it did expose some of the similar issues that we saw the first time around, particularly in the first game on Thursday. 

I was of the opinion that the Thursday game's shot count seemed a bit rosy for Ohio State while I was watching, but there's no way we'll ever know. While it wasn't the slaughter of game #1 at Yost, the clash at Value City Arena on Thursday was definitely a game that Ohio State won in terms of the balance of play. It was more even early on I thought, but the third period was another example of the Buckeyes stepping their foot on Michigan's neck. They used long, extended cycle possessions where the on-puck forecheck pressure against Michigan's defensemen put them in unfavorable spots and then hard pinches by the D at the point kept it going.

Related: Luke Hughes' injury suuuuuucked for that game and the whole weekend. Well, in general too, but for this matchup in particular, it was a bit of a nightmare because even though Hughes is susceptible to the sorts of turnovers OSU is trying to force. Hughes is another lighter D who wants to skate with the puck, but he's also a great puck possession defenseman. He may not have the size to be a true cycle-buster and defensive prowess, but he's a guy that once the cycle is busted, has the skill and mobility to alleviate forecheck pressure and get it out of the zone, which Michigan lacked on Thursday night in the third period. 

[Bill Rapai]

The funny thing is that the aforementioned pressure didn't lead to goals from Ohio State. We don't have proper video of the goals because Thursday night's broadcast could best be described as "All-Time BTN+", but I will relay them from my memory. The first goal came off the rush on a one-time cross-seam pass and the third was an absurd pass by Mason Lohrei to Tate Singleton for a quick goal, also on a sorta-rush. Michigan did pretty well to avoid getting crushed on the forecheck, and part of that was a nice showing from Erik Portillo in the third keeping the game tied. Michigan got some gifts from Jakub Dobeš on offense, shots from far out (filmed from a TV camera even further out), and that was enough to get them into OT. I would've liked to win the game and get the extra point, but a shootout is a joke anyway so no need to discuss that. I didn't feel like leaving that game that Michigan got ripped off. OSU was better on that given night. 

Saturday was a bit of a different beast in my mind. The first period was quite sharp from Michigan at 5v5, even if they gave up chances while killing penalties. I thought they were closer to scoring for the first half of the game than the Bucks were and generally were matching OSU blow for blow. Then things just came unglued. The first goal against was a rush chance against from a seemingly non-threatening shooter (D Cole McWard), but Portillo didn't come up with it. The second and third goals were much more distressing, breakdowns on both the PP (one of the worst we've seen all season) and the PK. I'm going to touch on special teams shortly, but that was where things turned south. Toss in Dobeš having a nice night and it was too much for Michigan to overcome and a bummer overall. Talking points: 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The talking points, B1G, and Notre Dame]

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Special teams, the difference: You can argue for several different storylines as being the true "difference" in this weekend series, but to me the clearest is special teams, penalty kill and PP. All the goals on Thursday were 5v5, but OSU killed off a Michigan PP at the end that could've ended the game in regulation. And on Saturday, OSU scored twice on the PP and once SH, while Michigan was 0fer again (finishing 0/12 for the weekend). Ohio State is clearly the better team on special teams right now and it's not close. It'll be a major storyline to follow if these teams play in the B1G tournament. 

Michigan is... fine as a whole? Their PP is 19th at 22.3%, probably worse than it should be given the talent but okay. Their PK though is 44th, while OSU's is #1 at 90.0%. This is nothing new for Ohio State, who have been great on the PK under Steve Rohlik for a number of years of his tenure and watching this game it's not hard to see why. They devote extra pressure in the neutral zone on entries, with a guy positioned whose job it is to bust up the slingshot/drop-pass entry play that most teams now use on the PP. That breaks up the rhythm and disrupts how often the opponent gets set up with possession. And then in-zone Ohio State applies the same pressure that they do on the forecheck at 5v5, giving you no time and space. It forced a turnover right off a faceoff that led to their shorthanded goal: 

Tyler Duke of @OhioStateMHKY scores against his brother's team and mom is loving it. 🤩 pic.twitter.com/i2X4K2Wsg3

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) February 18, 2023

I will touch on the Portillo part of this play in a second, but generating a 2v1 shorthanded moments after a DZ draw that you lost is wild stuff, great for the Buckeyes and embarrassing for Michigan. I felt this way back in 2017-18 when OSU had an elite PK and Michigan's was terrible, but I am of the belief that the Michigan coaching staff ought to study film and coach the PK the way Ohio State does, utilizing the true Power Kill approach of trying to force shorthanded rushes by pressuring all over vs. sitting back. Everyone in NCAA Hockey should look into it. 

[Bill Rapai]

- Portillo, again: I wrote about Erik Portillo last week and said he'd been "alright" and I had people come back in the comments arguing that his SV% is not good enough for a contending team and I don't necessarily disagree. I think that life hasn't been the easiest with the defense in front of him at times, Thursday being a decent example, but then Saturday happens and that's the other side of the pendulum. The goal I embedded in the previous section is what made me want to talk about this because it's emblematic of Portillo this season, where the issue has been a total meltdown in his goaltending technique, which is the most shocking part. 

Someone tweeted at me about Al Montoya being another guy who got worse over his Michigan career, but that was long before my time so I can't provide the eye test component there. What I will say is that I have rarely seen in my NCAA Hockey watching days a goalie lose his technique the way Portillo has. Goalies are erratic and year-over-year SV% is famously unpredictable and random in the NHL for example, but goalies who suddenly become bad often have that be a matter of randomness, health, or other factors, not losing their entire approach to the game. 

Erik Portillo was a .935 goalie over limited work as a freshman. He was .926 as a sophomore, starting every single game. He had some issues with rebound control at times, he had a few adventures playing the puck, but Portillo was a damn good goalie who was pretty much lights out down the stretch, won them the B1G Tournament, got them to the Frozen Four, and was one of the only players who didn't play scared and tight in Boston. What we've seen from Portillo this year, and what is encapsulated in that goal, was not him last year whatsoever.

This season he has been losing his goal stick seemingly five to seven times per game (how does that happen?) and when he goes down to make saves, Portillo appears incapable of getting up promptly or finding his bearings again. I talked about the mysterious rebound control and inability to catch or freeze the puck last week, though I thought that problem was better against OSU. This weekend it was his flopping around in the crease with no structure at all that was more on disply, his tendency to end up way out of the crease, and the methodical pace at which he gets back to the crease. From a goalie technique standpoint, it's a total mess. I don't know if it was the elimination of Michigan's goalie coach or what exactly happened, but Portillo is perhaps the team's biggest liability right now and we're running out of weeks to get that fixed. 

[David Nasternak]

- Let's talk about outdoor games: My biggest takeaway from watching the Saturday game was nothing specific about Michigan but rather about outdoor games in general. The combination of the first "ice maintenance" break in the second period, followed by the ultimate decision to go to the second intermission early to fix the ice, is why I have settled on the belief that outdoor games should be relegated for contests with extremely low stakes. Perhaps between two teams where the level of play is very different (say, Michigan vs. Lake State) and ideally in the non-conference. 

Outdoor games are fundamentally gimmicky. It's not how the game is normally played and you're at the mercy of weather. Sometimes the weather is spectacular, but other times it's either way too warm (see: NHL Lake Tahoe game) or there is heavy snowfall that also affects the experience (see: 2014 NHL Winter Classic). Saturday's game was more in the middle and wasn't terrible weather as a whole, but it still was too warm and it resulted in those multiple pauses. Ohio State was clearly the better team and would've won that game indoors too, but having unnatural pauses and a less-than-ideal playing surface does impact the game on a whole and thus those conditions ought to be reserved for games with little meaning. 

It works in the NHL because outdoor games happen in the regular season and let's be frank, there are too many NHL regular season games anyway. As I noted on the HockeyCast, they almost always occur in January and February, exactly the time of the season where games feel like they have the least meaning. The first few months of an NHL season are fun, new players, getting a feel for the team, and then the post-trade deadline through the end of the regular season is also interesting if you're cheering for a competitive team. But January/February pre-deadline? That's the dog days, and an NHL outdoor game is a fun reason to wake yourself up and follow a game intensely. It makes it memorable, ya know? 

But college hockey is different. They play far fewer games and conference games even moreso. The B1G plays 24 conference games compared to 82 NHL regular season games. In other words, each B1G regular season game is the equivalent of 3.42 NHL regular season games. They actually matter!! So, my current thesis is let's not do any more of these in regular season conference play. If two B1G teams want to play outdoors, let them schedule it in the non-con (late December or early January?), have it count for PWR, but not for B1G seeding. Or just do the outdoor game as a non-conference clash (as Michigan did with the outdoor GLI in 2013-14). But I'd like to reserve B1G regular season games, games that actually matter, for respectable conditions where the game is more about the play on the ice and not the spectacle of the event. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

The Final (B1G) Countdown

The events of the weekend made a dent in Michigan's push for the #2 seed, but it's not over yet. Updated standings: 

Team	GP	Points	Pt%	Conf. Record	GD
Minnesota	22	51	.767	15-3-2-2	+55
Michigan	22	36	.546	9-7-3-3	+27
Ohio State	22	36	.546	11-9-1-1	+32
Michigan St.	24	34	.472	9-11-3-1	-7
Penn St.	22	31	.470	9-9-4-0	+17
Notre Dame	22	31	.470	8-10-3-1	-10
Wisconsin	22	15	.278	5-17-0-0	-24

Minnesota officially clinched the B1G Regular Season Title, which was sealed in everything but ink approximately two months ago, and Wisconsin is still locked into seventh. The 2-6 slots now have a bit more clarity than they did last week. MSU is locked in at 34 points, on bye this week and done with the regular season. The other four all play. PSU hosts Wisconsin and the Badgers have not won a single road game in the B1G this season, so until they demonstrate the ability to do so, I'm mentally penciling in the Nittany Lions at 37 points. Notre Dame plays Michigan and since Michigan owns the tiebreaker with PSU, a single point against Notre Dame this weekend locks up at least #3 in the B1G. That's the most obvious thing to accomplish. 

But the #2 seed is still a considerable prize, home-ice in the semis and a first round matchup with Wisconsin at home. Ohio State won the season series from Michigan and therefore has the tiebreak. The Thursday shootout loss does now hurt Michigan, because flipping that result around would give Michigan 37 and OSU 35, handing the Wolverines control of their own destiny. Alas, we only live in this world and shootouts remain lifeless and terrible. If OSU sweeps their weekend, Michigan can't do better than 3rd. Thankfully, OSU is playing in Minneapolis against the Gophers, who do have national implications to play for, so it's reasonable to assume the Bucks are dropping at least a point in Minneapolis. Thus, if you sweep Notre Dame, I would feel very good about getting that #2 seed locked down. 

Though ND has been Michigan's worst nightmare at Yost in recent years, I do assume Michigan will win one game. I also assume Minnesota will win one of the two against OSU. Thus, the question for Michigan is that if OSU/Minnesota split, can Michigan get the four points (at least one in each game) vs. ND to finish ahead? That's this weekend's biggest storyline. Finishing up talking about this, PSU likely finishes ahead of MSU as I said, and ND doesn't seem likely to sweep Michigan, so thus, I would guess PSU finishes #4 and then MSU/ND #5-6. MSU holds the tiebreak over the Irish, so the most likely scenario for the BTT is this: (1) Minnesota; (2) M/OSU vs. (7) Wisconsin; (3) M/OSU vs. (6) Notre Dame; (4) PSU vs. (5) MSU. A lot of back of the napkin math and projection there, but it's how I see the most likely outcome. 

As for the NCAA Tournament, we now have access to College Hockey News' handy PWR probabilities. The top 10 teams in PWR are almost certain to make it in, and #11 Michigan Tech is at 93%. In the "almost certain" category is Minnesota, Michigan (still on the 1 line), OSU, and PSU. Notre Dame and MSU are still on the bubble, ND clocking in at #13 and MSU #17. After a brutal loss to Wisconsin, the Spartans are in trouble: they will have to win their first round BTT series in order to make it in. As for ND, they have massive stakes facing Michigan this weekend, not just solidifying their ranking but they also are fighting an uphill battle with a seldom-considered tournament rule: you must be .500 or better to be selected. Notre Dame is currently 14-14-4 and CHN estimates there's an 18% chance Notre Dame could finish the season in a PWR slot eligible for selection, but will not be picked because their overall record will be <.500. Two wins in Ann Arbor this weekend would shore that up for the Irish. 

 

The last time ND came to Yost [James Coller]

Previewing the Irish

We're now at that part of the season where the stakes are high enough that I should do a real preview for upcoming opponents. Here stand the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Michigan's chief pain in the ass in recent years who are not exactly a vintage version of themselves in 2022-23. Under Jeff Jackson they've been the slog through the mud, neutral zone trap extraordinaire team that keeps play to the perimeter in the defensive zone, one that Michigan's lineup of smaller, more skilled guys struggles to solve. They beat Michigan all four times in the regular season last year before the Wolverines finally beat them in the BTT. In fact, the Irish are on a seven game winning streak at Yost in the regular season(!), dating back to November 10, 2018.  

So yeah, I will not blame you if you're quaking in your boots a little bit about this one. What I will say, however, is that this Notre Dame team is the worst one I've seen in six seasons following B1G hockey closely. Notre Dame is in the tournament picture because everyone in the B1G is that has a pulse, but when you look closer at their results, this is a team that is hanging on for dear life. Notre Dame has never been a possession-based team, not registering highly in metrics like Corsi generally but this season has been a calamity. They rank 52nd out of 61 teams in even strength Corsi (a proxy for possession) at 44.1%, three full points lower than the previous worst under Jackson in the past six seasons. In most years they do get outshot because of the way they play. This year they're getting outright caved in night after night. 

Last time out against Ohio State, Notre Dame got a shootout win in a game that saw shot attempts be 88-39 in favor of Ohio State(!). Notre Dame hasn't been so much trapping teams as they have been hoping their combination of shot blocking and great goaltending will do just enough to get them through games while the opponent has extended possession and zone time for minutes on end. It's not a great recipe and they're only a .500 team, but it has them in the tournament conversation. The elite goalie is Ryan Bischel, a senior posting a .930 SV% while facing an astounding 1091 shots this season (~34 per game). He's my vote for goalie of the year in the B1G at this point in time. 

The flip side of this is Notre Dame doesn't score much and they lack any semblance of offensive firepower. They are scoring just 2.3 goals per game, tied with several terrible teams for 51st in the country (Bentley, Brown, Colorado College, and Dartmouth). The Irish don't have the sort of top line talent that Michigan and Minnesota have, relying on "depth scoring" to unfortunately do all the scoring. Somehow, no one on this team has more than eight goals(!!) and just one player is scoring 0.75 PPG or better. It's grim! This is the sort of team that I would like to see Michigan and Portillo handle defensively, playing a structured, disciplined game defensively and keeping the goals against to 1-2 per game. Show me that this Michigan team has that in them. The key to beating Notre Dame as always is to get a lead, but this year's ND team is subjecting themselves to the firing squad when they have a lead, so maybe Michigan's weapons will get the job done anyway.