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[Bill Rapai]

Hockey Weekly Got Put In A Pressure Cooker Comment Count

Alex.Drain January 18th, 2023 at 4:30 PM

After a month off for the Christmas/WJC break, Michigan Hockey was back in action this past weekend against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Yost Ice Arena. It was an eventful series, with Michigan suffering a disastrous defeat on Friday night before rebounding to take the Saturday game 4-2. The split wasn't quite what Michigan wanted but it was acceptable considering the rustiness after such a break. Today we'll be talking about the OSU series, looking at the B1G and NCAA picture, and quickly checking in on the WJC results, NHL Draft notes, and Wolverines in the pros. 

 

Ohio State's Full-Court Press

The story of this past weekend's tussle with Ohio State was what the Buckeyes did tactically to give Michigan fits. Steve Rohlik dialed up a hyper-aggressive offensive zone forecheck, one that sent F1 (the first forechecker) deep into the zone, always below the goal line, to apply immediate puck pressure on whichever Wolverine was recovering the loose puck. The other two forwards F2 and F3, were providing aggressive support, either on-puck, or pinching on the walls to take away the first outlet passes. If a Michigan player tried to skate with the puck out of the zone, F1 would stay glued onto him and another forward would arrive quickly to hound the puck. Any chips of the wall were met with a hard pinch at the point by the defensemen as well. 

Here's what it looked like in action: 

Luke Hughes gets the puck in front of his own net, tries to skate it out of the zone, and is met with immediate puck pressure. F1 separates him from the puck and F2 is right there to scoop up the loose puck and keep the possession going. It resulted in a goal on that play, but many times it didn't- it merely kept Michigan hemmed in their zone for minutes at a time. Ohio State paired this aggressive strategy on dump-ins and retrievals with a shoot from everywhere approach to offense. They flung pucks at the net from all over, knowing that Erik Portillo's struggles to control rebounds this season would end with those pucks ricocheting to the boards, where their retrieval approach could recover them quickly. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: analysis and all-stars]

[Bill Rapai]

Michigan came out of the gate rusty on Friday, having not played a real NCAA game since the second weekend in December, while Ohio State was playing B1G games the weekend before. Ohio State had their legs under them more in the early going, and that was the best time to exploit this forechecking approach. The result was ugly, OSU outshooting Michigan 39-9 at the 30 minute mark of the game(!!!), as Michigan's defensemen, lighter and undersized, were overwhelmed by Ohio State's approach to the game. Getting so thoroughly outworked in the corners meant that Michigan's forwards started moving lower in the defensive zone to help out their defensemen on puck retrievals and breakouts. The consequence is no puck pressure up high in the defensive zone, allowing OSU to move it around well and set up bombs like this: 

I'm a huge fan of this particular play, a slapshot from a defenseman skating downhill, where he can get the force of his body and momentum into the shot, making it more dangerous and powerful. Typically you only get the time and space to set this play up on a power play (specifically a 5v3), but look at where Michigan's forwards are on this clip. At the time the shot is taken, the highest Michigan player in the zone is at the hashmarks of the faceoff circle, while the other four Wolverines are below the dot. That's the result of getting put in a bodybag down low for 20 minutes. Michigan adjusted and the adjustment gave Ohio State opportunities to set up plays like that one for their defensemen. 

I thought the Wolverines were slow to adjust their strategy towards breakouts on Friday night, but they seemed to figure it out on Saturday. Save for the disastrous first goal, which is the first clip I shared, Michigan was more content to make quick passes or chips/rims along the walls to try and get it out, rather than the controlled possession zone exits they prefer. Obviously a possession exit is always better than a dump-out, but sometimes you don't have the time or space for the former. Ohio State desired to take that away and succeeded. 

Once Michigan tweaked their approach and started to find their legs on Saturday, they did a much better job of controlling play and getting into an offensive groove. A sweet shot from Mackie Samoskevich got them on the board, and then it was the Maize & Blue applying pressure down low, with jam plays on the side of the net for goals #2 and #3 in the game. Here's one: 

The final tally was a play I do want to mention. I've been rather frustrated by a lack of progression in Luke Hughes' game this season on the offensive end, not opening up the same number of chances for his team as he did a year ago and still having the same ups-and-downs with concentration in the defensive end. However, on the PP with under five minutes to go and in desperate need of a goal to put the game away, Hughes delivered with a huge setup: 

This play is what the best passers in the NHL do. Hughes has on-puck pressure from the penalty killer up high, wiggles around him and cuts to the side. In the process, he draws pressure from the other Buckeye forward and the whole play shifts to that side of the ice. He sees Rutger McGroarty waiting on the far side and then delivers the perfect pass across for a one-time shot by Rutger that beats Dobeš. Drawing in pressure and then making a pass to whatever part of the defense is now exposed is how the best passers in the game do it and Hughes has the ability to be that. The inconsistency can be maddening, but a Hughes who is making those kinds of plays would be a massive asset for Michigan down the stretch. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Looking at the B1G and NCAAs

It's been a little while since we did this column last and while Michigan was on break, plenty of other teams were playing. At the rough halfway point of the B1G season, let's take a look at the updated standings, sorted by Pts%: 

Team GP Points Pt% Conf. Record
Minnesota 14 34 .810 11-2-0-1
OSU 14 24 .571 8-6-0-0
Penn State 14 24 .571 7-4-0-3
MSU 16 24 .500 6-7-3-0
Michigan 12 15 .417 4-6-1-1
Notre Dame 14 17 .405 4-7-2-1
Wisconsin 12 6 .167 2-10-0-0

Michigan is trapped in the middle of the standings, the result of both bad luck (the RSV outbreak against Minnesota) and some sloppiness, dropping a point against Penn State in a game they led 3-0 in the third and losing to Wisconsin in regulation. There are things to clean up, but I don't think it's crazy to see the Wolverines making up significant ground in the second half. Of their 12 remaining games, six are at home, four are on the road, and two are in neutral sites (LCA and FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland). That right there sets up decently well, but secondly, we have grown accustomed to Michigan having younger teams that improve substantially in the second half. This year's team is plenty young alright, the youngest team in college hockey by average age (21.0 years old). 11 of their top 12 scorers are freshmen or sophomores(!), so you'd expect growing in the second half. 

Minnesota has not locked up a B1G title officially, but they have been the best team so far, have way more talent than any other team with a shot to catch them (read: not Michigan), and have a track record of regular season excellence, winning the conference regular season title last year. I would be stunned if anyone besides Minnesota is the #1 seed in the BTT bracket come early March. After that, I really don't know what to expect. Ohio State is hot and sure looked impressive this weekend. Penn State is a team I'm a bit skeptical of and expect to fade some. Michigan State is fine, rebounding this past weekend with a huge performance against the Nittany Lions after losing seven of eight, but I'm not scared of them.

[David Wilcomes]

All of this is a way of saying that I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Michigan made up significant ground, should they improve/gel over the next six weeks (which I expect them to). I'm not entirely sure moving all the way up to #2 is possible, but a 9-3 finish would put Michigan at 42 points. That would definitely lead to them passing MSU and getting home-ice for the first round at least, and probably jumping one of OSU/PSU and getting out of having to play Minnesota in a hypothetical semifinals as well. That should be the goal, and it feels possible. Consistency, growth, and cutting down on sloppy mistakes are the keys. It's a bit disappointing to be talking about #2 in the B1G as a best case goal with the level of talent on the roster, but a lot of factors that we didn't see coming (injuries, sickness, WJC complications, the B1G being far better/deeper than ever before) have popped up. Not much the team could do about a lot of that. 

The good news is, the NCAA picture still looks very promising. Michigan sits 8th in the PWR formula right now, comfortably off the bubble and battling for a top two seed. I wrote in my Monday mailbag that playing .500 in B1G play the rest of the way likely gets Michigan in, but if Naurato's squad heats up in the second half like I mentioned in the preceding paragraphs, they could well climb up into the top five and threaten for the last 1 seed. How is this possible if they are middle of the B1G? This is an incredibly strong B1G, with five teams currently in the projected field, four in the top eight seeds, and Notre Dame is lurking in bubble out territory right now.

That helps Michigan, but so does the fact they played another exceptionally difficult non-conference. They did get softballs in Lindenwood and Lake State, yes, but putting BU (7), Harvard (9), and Western (10) on the non-conference schedule (and going 4-1-1 in those games!) has helped bolster Michigan's strength of schedule and solidified their position despite the bumpy B1G slate so far. That has the Wolverines in comfortable position and right now it would take a disaster in the second half to see Michigan missing the NCAA Tournament. 

 

[James Coller]

Quick WJC Check 

Michigan sent six players to the 2023 WJC, held over the Christmas break in Halifax/Moncton. Rutger McGroarty, Luke Hughes, Gavin Brindley, Seamus Casey, and Dylan Duke got bronze medals for Team USA, while Adam Fantilli got a gold medal for Team Canada. As a quick rundown of how things went, Casey unfortunately never appeared in a game for Team USA, being used as a reserve defenseman who was never needed to leave the press box. Everyone else got in the action though. Luke Hughes had an up-and-down performance, some issues on defense, but also flashes of the brilliance we know that he possesses, including this highlight reel goal: 

The oddity of Luke at the WJC is that it was the last time a Hughes brother will ever appear in the WJC, yet the family never won a gold medal. Quinn played in the 2018 and 2019 events, Jack was also on the 2019 team, and Luke played in the 2022 and 2023 events. Out of those four tournaments, the family got two bronze medals and one silver (+ one 5th place finish), yet never won Gold. What makes it odder is that one of the two years a Hughes didn't appear, 2021, Team USA did win gold. Maybe they are cursed. 

Michigan's forwards for Team USA were mostly pretty quiet, with the stars being Minnesota's Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud, as well as BC's Cutter Gauthier, but McGroarty posted 1-6-7 in as many games, while Duke and Brindley each added a goal and four points. Michigan's players formed more of the support circle around the stars of the team, rather than being the stars themselves, but it was valuable learning experience for all the players involved.

As for Fantilli on Team Canada, it was a decent, albeit somewhat disappointing performance. Fantilli looked like a player who turned 18 only a couple months prior playing in a U20 tournament. For reference, Jack Hughes played in the WJC at 17 and ~8 months, and he posted 0-4-4 in seven games. Fantilli, just a bit older than Hughes was then, put up 2-3-5. In other words, there's nothing wrong with Fantlili's performance at all in the abstract, considering Jack Hughes went 1.1 in the upcoming draft and is now on pace to score 50 goals and 100 points in the NHL at age 21.

The only reason it came off slightly disappointing is because many scouts wanted to see Fantilli challenge Connor Bedard for Best In The 2023 Draft status, and there was no challenge whatsoever. Bedard, who is nine months younger than Fantilli, was the best player in the tournament by a country mile, scoring 9-14-23 in seven games(!) for Team Canada. He is the best prospect in this draft and the best draft prospect seen since Connor McDavid. Bedard is an alien and we just have to accept that, with the WJC affirming there is no debate about 1.1 in the upcoming draft. It is okay that Fantilli is mortal. He's still on track to be an excellent first line center in the NHL. And I'm glad he still got his moments in Halifax: 

That experience will help him in the second half. 

 

Hello again, Matty [James Coller]

#ProBlue Notes 

At the midway point of the season I thought I'd check in on a couple of happenings with Wolverines in the professional ranks, as well as some rumors pertaining to the current squad. One that was circulating and has since been confirmed by All-Knowing NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman is that Erik Portillo does not intend to sign with Buffalo, who holds his draft rights. 23 year old goalie Ukko Pekka-Lukkonen has finally broken into the NHL this season for the Sabres and Northeastern goalie Devon Levi appears to be ahead of Portillo on the organizational depth chart. This likely has pushed Portillo into trying to find a home elsewhere in the NHL, one where the goalie pipeline is a little less backlogged. If Portillo is not interested in signing with the Sabres, it is quite possible Buffalo could flip his rights to a different organization at the March 3 trade deadline. Something to keep an eye on. 

Elsewhere, we got some good news as Matty Beniers, playing in his first full NHL season, was named an All-Star for the Seattle Kraken: 

Beniers is having a terrific season, with a 17-19-36 statline in 44 games as of this writing. He is narrowly second on the resurgent Kraken in points and at age 20, is quickly becoming the face of the nascent franchise. Seattle is 26-14-4 on the year, firmly in the Western Conference playoff picture and one of the best stories of this NHL season. Beniers is not the only reason why, but the Kraken have gotten a ton better by adding him to the lineup, which is pretty cool to see. He's the odds-on favorite to win the Calder Trophy as NHL Rookie of the Year. 

Owen Power is a bit further down in the Calder odds, but is playing a whopping 23:49 per night for a much improved Sabres team, with 15 points in 40 games. Not too shabby for a rookie himself. Kent Johnson is not getting much ice time in Columbus but is making the most of the 13.5 minutes he gets, with good analytics and a solid 8-11-19 statline in 41 games. The Blue Jackets are a trainwreck and Johnson is also a rookie, so I think he's doing alright given the circumstances. Nick Blankenburg has dealt with injuries and has been in-and-out of the Columbus lineup, four points in the eleven games he's played for a Jackets team that badly needs defensemen. It would be nice if Blankenburg could stay healthy and get some consistent run in the lineup, because there's a team with a need for his skillset right there in front of him. 

Other past Michigan teammates Brendan Brisson and Thomas Bordeleau are down in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights and the San Jose Barracuda, respectively. Brisson is doing okay, 5-11-16 in 29 games, while Bordeleau is thriving, 17 goals in 39 games and he was just named an AHL All-Star. As mentioned on the HockeyCast, Strauss Mann was named ECHL Goaltender of the Week for the Wichita Thunder. He's got a .930 SV% in that league and seems to be caught between the ECHL, which he's too good for, and the AHL, where he's not quite ready. Finally, Johnny Beecher is with the Providence Bruins of the AHL, profiling about the way we expected him to, with 9 points in 29 games.  

Comments

ppudge

January 18th, 2023 at 7:12 PM ^

Thanks for the write up.  I was at Friday’s game and it was probably the worst I’ve seen us play in quite some time.  It was complete domination by the Buckeyes.  Glad we course corrected and got the much needed win on Saturday.  Hoping for a 9-3 record down the stretch, but that might be asking too much.  We’ll probably need to split with Minnesota this weekend to have a chance at that and I’m not sure we can do that.  Minnesota looks to be the best team in the league by a rather large margin.

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