It's been a couple weeks since the last Hockey Weekly, having skipped last week due to Michigan Hockey's mandated two week COVID pause. Since our last update, the team swept Notre Dame to advance to 10-6, and they continue to climb national rankings as well as the B1G standings, where they sit in third place. There is no series this week or weekend but the team will be back at it next week with a lone week-day game against MSU and then a weekend series against Wisconsin. I will have a column next week after the MSU game and previewing Wisconsin, so this piece instead will give a quick recap of Notre Dame but will focus more on the broader national and B1G picture. Let's dive in: 

Notre Dame, Revisited 

In case you were forgot what sports were like before the two-week pause, Michigan had just concluded a huge sweep of Notre Dame, avenging a frustrating sweep at Yost back in November. It was a near-total reversal of that earlier series, with Michigan putting their foot on the gas and not letting up from the opening puck drop. The Wolverines got the first goal in both games, which was the primary key to the game both nights, and continued their strong defensive play. The penalty kill looked stout, and while the power play got few chances, Michigan's offense was able to strike often enough at even strength to win the series. Erik Portillo and Strauss Mann each started one game and did what was required of them to sweep, each making a couple big saves but Michigan was in control of each game defensively. 

Game 1 was a 5-1 blowout, being tied into the second period but then Michigan caved in the Irish in that frame, scoring four times and then going up 5-0 in the third before a late ND goal got the home team on the board. Owen Power had three assists while Kent Johnson scored two goals of his own and Philippe LaPointe tallied his first goal as a Michigan Wolverine in that contest. Game 2 was a bit tighter, and Michigan scored lightning quick into the game. Notre Dame tied it at 1 and the game remained even into the third, although I always liked Michigan's chances in a tied game, because it was being played in an open, free flowing style, which seemed to benefit the Wolverines. Sure enough, with just under 8 minutes to play it was a Nick Granowicz deflection that put Michigan on top. Faced with a similar situation to the one they choked away a few weeks ago in MSU, a one goal lead in the final five minutes, the Wolverines righted their previous wrongs and closed it out with a dagger goal by Brendan Brisson off a great Nolan Moyle drive to the net. They won 3-1 and swept the series, gaining a huge 6 points. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: B1G and national thoughts]

So just how good is Michigan? 

​When Michigan is clicking, it's a lot of fun [James Coller]

It's been a bit of an odd year, with the Maize & Blue going from national title favorite two weeks in to struggling disappointment around Christmas back to a dangerous team getting hot. Michigan is 5-1 in the 6 games they've played since the holiday break and over those games they've played about 357 minutes of phenomenal hockey and 3 meltdown minutes that spoiled their chance to be prefect in that stretch. Regardless, this is a team that still has all the talent we've talked about before in this column, but perhaps is beginning to learn how to play through adversity at the collegiate level. The reality is that Michigan is still heavily carried by freshmen: their top five point getters are all first year guys. We saw just how bad the team looked sans Bordeleau, Beecher, Beniers, and Brisson back in December and it's worth remembering that three of Michigan's top four scorers have still played just 14 NCAA games. This is a very young team. 

But when they are all clicking, I'm resolute in my belief that they have a shot to be better than Minnesota. No one in college hockey has Michigan's talent and if they really hit their stride, watch out. It seemed that they may have been doing so before the two-week pause, although it remains to be seen how the team comes out of the gate on Tuesday against MSU. What is true is that Michigan is outscoring its opponents 28-7 since the New Year, and those 7 goals surrendered in 6 games represents a marked shift defensively from the poor team effort we saw in the fall. The penalty kill has eliminated 14 of the last 16 disadvantages it's faced and the eye test backs up that data. Improvements have been made, though Michigan still hasn't faced the top offensive teams in the league the second time through. That will change next weekend when Wisconsin comes to town. 

Checking in on the B1G 

Michigan has been idle, but the rest of the conference hasn't. Here are the updated standings: 

1. Minnesota - 15-3, 2.36 PPG, +47 

2. Wisconsin - 11-7, 2.00 PPG, +20

3. Michigan - 10-6, 1.64 PPG, +25 

4. Notre Dame - 8-9-1, 1.50 PPG, -8 

5. Penn State - 9-9, 1.25 PPG, -9 

6. Ohio State - 5-12-1, 1.00 PPG, -19 

7. Michigan State - 6-10-2, 0.94 PPG, -21 

Going off of PPG, it appears there are three tiers of Minnesota/Wisconsin, Michigan/Notre Dame, and PSU/OSU/MSU. On the other hand, the goal differential paints a much clearer image of the tiers: Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan, Notre Dame/PSU, and OSU/MSU, with Minnesota probably needing to be in its own tier for now. The reality is that Michigan is not catching Minnesota most likely, at least in regular season standings. The Badgers still have a shot to eclipse Minnesota, though, but that all hinges on this weekend. If Wisconsin can go into Minnesota Friday/Saturday and sweep the Gophers, they take over first place in the league. Color me skeptical that will happen. This is not, however, an indictment of the Badgers, who are playing terrific hockey right now. They have a Hobey candidate in Montreal Canadiens prospect Cole Caufield (28 points in 18 games) and now they've gotten Edmonton Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway back from the World Juniors (16 points in 10 games). Pair those two with a decent supporting cast of Ty Pelton-Byce, Linus Weissbach, and Brock Caufield, in addition to surprisingly strong goaltending, and you have a likely tournament team in Wisconsin. It's just that Minnesota is really good, too.  

Everyone below Michigan is probably not fated for the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame was flirting with the bubble after sweeping Minnesota, but Michigan's sweep of the Irish a couple weeks ago— paired with ND's lackluster effort against PSU last weekend— mean they have slid out of tourney range. Penn State has impressed me in the way they've bounced back from their 0-5 start to the year, but they have faired poorly against top competition in the conference. Credit Guy Gadowsky for steering a young team back on track though. Ohio State and Michigan State are bad hockey teams, and sweeping them in the remaining four games Michigan has against both opponents is paramount. The same can be said for Arizona State, who isn't on this chart since they're not in the conference, but the Ice Devils have done about as poorly as MSU/OSU against B1G teams this year. Those are six wins waiting for Michigan to collect them. The season rests in the hands of how Michigan does against Wisconsin and Minnesota. 

The B1G Tournament has been announced to be in South Bend, March 18-20. It will be single elimination and as of the current standings you would have Minnesota on a bye while the three other matchups are (2)Wisconsin/(7)MSU, (3)Michigan/(6)OSU, and (4)Notre Dame/(5)PSU. If the better seeds won each round it would then lead to semifinals of Minnesota/ND and Wisco/Michigan. In a single elimination tournament, anything can happen, and this would be the Wolverines' best opportunity to collect hardware in the conference, since the regular season title is likely out of reach. The #2 seed is probably as high as Michigan can go given Minnesota's illustrious start. 

What's up nationally?

​That strong showing at Yost in December is one reason that Minnesota is #1 [Patrick Barron]

After much discussion in previous HockeyCast episodes, it appears that the NCAA has more or less abandoned PairWise for this year's tournament. The mathematical formula is normally used to seed the tourney 1-16 with no selection committee at all, but COVID has presented problems. PairWise relies heavily on comparing the conferences against each other and with few-to-no games between conferences, it's nearly useless. As a result, College Hockey News is reporting that a selection committee of sorts will be formed for this year's tournament, seeding the field based on the eye test as well as some accompanying statistics. That's very good news for Michigan, a team that the pundits have always liked a bit more than the data due in part to the flashy talent of Michigan's hot shot freshmen. This week's Power 16, which is CHN's best attempt to replicate the selection committee if the tourney were held today, pegs Michigan at #4, which would be the last 1 seed in the field. John Buccigross, college hockey aficionado and ESPN anchor, tweets out his own rankings weekly and he also has Michigan at #4. Based on this evidence, Michigan is a near lock to make the tournament. As long as the Wolverines take care of business against the lower rung B1G teams and don't get run out of the building by Minnesota/Wisconsin, they're probably in. Sweep either of those two teams and Michigan's bid is on ice. 

Outside of Ann Arbor and Minneapolis, who are the other top teams, you might ask? Here's a quick rundown of some of the other teams in the top echelon of the Power 16 rankings, excluding familiar B1G foes in #1 Minnesota and #7 Wisconsin: 

• #2 North Dakota: NoDak plays in a terrific conference and is 11-4-1 in that conference, leading the NCHC in points. They're +31 in goal differential and loaded with professional talent, including a top five pick in the 2020 draft in Jake Sanderson, as well as Grant Mismash (2nd rounder), Shane Pinto (2nd rounder), Jacob Bernard-Docker (1st rounder), and Tyler Kleven (2nd rounder), not to mention undrafted upperclassmen like Jordan Kawaguchi. North Dakota is a blue blood of the sport and you should expect them to be a force in March/April. 
• #3 Boston College: The Eagles are the other team besides North Dakota and Minnesota that can hold a candle to Michigan's talent. BC is 10-2-1 and leading a similarly excellent conference in the Hockey East and has got plenty of big names, including former lottery pick Matthew Boldy, Logan Hutsko (3rd rounder), Drew Helleson (2nd rounder), and Jack McBain (3rd rounder). Oh and in net they have Spencer Knight, a former 1st round pick of the Florida Panthers who is regarded as a generational goalie prospect and who just backstopped Team USA to gold at the WJC. BC is probably very good too. 
• #5 St. Cloud State: The second team out of the NCHC is St. Cloud State. The Huskies are 11-6 on the year, again, playing in a very good conference. They don't have nearly the talent of the previous two teams I mentioned but they're a well coached team in a program that's had a lot of success recently. St. Cloud sports a solid +9 goal differential and has cobbled together a roster of strong players drafted in the late rounds (Nick Perbix, Veeti Miettinen), as well as wily veterans that have helped make them the second best offensive team in that league. 
• #6 Minnesota State: The best team from the WCHA, Minnesota State is 9-2-1, although they've only played 12 games. The Mavericks are always a paper tiger in my opinion, a team that comes from a weak conference and always has a good record, yet chokes in the tournament. The NCAA Hockey Tournament is a particularly sadistic experiment in a sport that is so driven by luck on a game-by-game basis, but the 0-5 record that Minnesota State has under coach Mike Hastings isn't entirely bad luck in my opinion. They're one of the best defensive teams in college hockey, allowing only 1.25 goals per game, but will it hold up when they face better competition? Remains to be seen. 
• #11 Quinnipiac: I'm jumping down a bit here to mention Quinnipiac, since they're the highest ranked team out of the ECAC. That conference was reduced to just four teams when the Ivies shut down play for the year. The Bobcats sit at 10-5-3, having to partially fill their schedule with non-conference games against nobodies like American Int'l, Holy Cross, and Sacred Heart, as well as the very good Bowling Green Falcons (who I skipped at #8). In league play they've been solid but it's hard to get a feel for Q since they just haven't played many games against good teams. In true ECAC fashion they play a tight defensive style that allows only 2 goals per game. Their goalie, Detroit Red Wings prospect Keith Petruzzelli, has benefitted greatly from that, and the Bobcats feature a Hobey Candidate (and best name in college hockey candidate) Odeen Tufto, who has 28 points in 18 games. 

That's the rundown of teams I want to talk about. Obviously this column will focus a bit more on bracketology as the tournament draws closer, and I'd love if the NCAA could give us more details on how the tourney will work this year, but it's NCAA Hockey and nothing makes sense. For now, Michigan stands in good shape to make the tourney and if they can close strong, a #1 seed appears firmly in the conversation. The road to that starts next week against Wisconsin, and we will be back then to preview that huge series.