After a long pause, Michigan Hockey returned to the ice last weekend against the Wisconsin Badgers at Yost Ice Arena, and it couldn't have been a better test. The Badgers entered the weekend playing the best hockey in the conference, so the Wolverines had their work cut out for them. The series finished with a 5-1 Michigan win on Saturday, followed by a 3-2 Wisconsin win on Sunday for a clean split on the weekend, one that I think most Michigan fans were okay with. Since the hockey team returned to the ice, Hockey Weekly is back to recap the series and look ahead to the stretch run of the season and what it all means. 

Saturday's defensive dominance  

Wisconsin entered the weekend firing on all cylinders offensively, which made Saturday's defensive effort from Michigan so impressive. It took the Wolverines a bit to get their legs under them, but once they did, they were able to mostly contain the Badger offense, with the only goal being ceded on a breakaway midway through the first period. The breakouts were crisp, defensive turnovers were at a minimum, and Michigan took just one penalty, limiting the chances for a lethal Wisconsin power play. Oh, and when they faced that PP, the improved penalty kill looked excellent. But even if you do all of that, you're still probably not going to shut down Wisconsin entirely. A team with two of the most dynamic players in college hockey (Dylan Holloway and Cole Caufield) is still going to get some chances and so the effort was really capped off by impeccable goaltending from Erik Portillo. Exhibit A: 

Hey @BuffaloSabres did you see this #SCTop10 save from Erik Portillo? ? pic.twitter.com/a1I3SL7OSa

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2021

We've now seen Portillo start three games and appear in relief of Mann in two others. The mammoth Swede feels every bit as good of a netminder at this juncture as Strauss Mann, and the Saturday game was definitely the peak of a very young career for the freshman goalie. I still think Mann is The Guy in net until he isn't, but we're definitely reaching a point where I feel extremely comfortable seeing Portillo in goal. His numbers speak for themselves: 1.49 GAA, .948 SV%. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More Wisconsin, scheduling, and OSU]

Offensively, Saturday's game was a mix of great skill/speed from Michigan, as well as a bit of a gift from Wisconsin's shaky goaltender Robbie Beydoun. There were some great individual plays, like this one from Thomas Bordeleau to set up Brendan Brisson: 

Freshmen on FIRE! Thomas Bordeleau with the slick hands and dishes across the slot for Brendan Brisson pic.twitter.com/7i9o7x36mP

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2021

But they also got a goal from Luke Morgan that was nothing short of an absolute howler from Beydoun: 

Luke Morgan is feeling it in this solo effort to make it 4-1 BLUE pic.twitter.com/NdStSVLwh1

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2021

Once Michigan got going, the offense was humming and they were both creating chances through puck movement, control, and speed, and also capitalizing on the mistakes Beydoun made. The game was more or less over by the second intermission when Michigan went up 4-1, yet they impressed by continuing to keep the foot on the gas. You can argue that the third period was Michigan's best period in the game, yet it wasn't the one they scored four times in. Only a stellar effort in relief from Cameron Rowe kept that game from spiraling into truly ugly territory for Wisconsin. 

How about Sunday? 

​There was more of this in game #2 [JD Scott]

So what changed in game #2? Mostly it was the result of Wisconsin raising their game. You knew it was going to be a tougher task after the game one skunking, and the Badgers put the pedal to the metal throughout. Wisconsin's got the speed and skill to counter Michigan and they showed it off a beautiful set play for the first goal: 

Badgers run a little pick play at the blue line, which is enough to spring Dylan Holloway on a mini-break and he puts Wisconsin up 1-0 on Michigan after one. pic.twitter.com/tfcG6UQl9A

— Chris Dilks (@ChrisDilks) February 14, 2021

There's a small pick set on Keaton Pehrson on the blue line, which helps remove Pehrson from the play. The criss-cross lateral motion by Roman Ahcan and Dylan Holloway freezes the Wolverine defenders and isolates them to one side of the ice, and the pass is made to the streaking Holloway and then finished off by a wicked wrist shot. That's why Holloway went in the top 15 picks of October's NHL Draft. Wisconsin's PP was another improvement in the second game, as Michigan managed to do a good job on the PK again overall, but gave the Badgers one-too many chances. The quick puck movement of Wisconsin got a few netfront chances and Ahcan finished off the fourth one on the doorstep. Wisconsin was definitely the better team on Sunday, getting more shots and the better chances, so they certainly deserved to win it. 

Overall I'll say that I'm pretty alright with how the weekend played out and I have to imagine most Michigan Hockey fans are as well. The best way to summarize this weekend I think is the following tweet of mine from after the Sunday game: 

Michigan gets a late goal but are unable to make up the deficit and drop this one 3-2 at Yost for a weekend split with Wisconsin. Two good hockey teams played a pretty even series this weekend, not much else to it

— Alex Drain (@Alex_Drain) February 15, 2021

It felt like two pretty even teams playing a pretty even weekend series, and generally speaking that means a split, and that's indeed what happened. Though Michigan needed a sweep to really make a play for first place in the conference, the reality is that Wisconsin is a top five team in the country; a sweep was unlikely. I'm happy with a split in part because it affirms Michigan's status as a team with a shot at the national title. They are the only team this year to hold a Holloway & Caufield Wisconsin team to less than two goals, which is a significant feat. Since the Badgers were fresh off demolishing previously untouchable Minnesota— and Michigan had been on a three week break— that the Wolverines looked every bit as good as the Badgers is a pretty good sign that Michigan is also probably a top five(ish) team with a chance to go deep in the tourney. If the two played a seven game, NHL style series, it would probably be highly entertaining and lengthy. 

Previewing the stretch run 

Michigan Hockey is now into the final jaunt of the season. There are just 7 games left over three weekends in the regular season, two each against OSU, ASU, and Minnesota + a midweek game vs. Michigan State. There are also three games that need to be made up, two against PSU and another against MSU. Those games mostly fall into two buckets: difficult tests (Minnesota) and games Michigan should win (all the others). The B1G has basically three tiers in my mind, consisting of teams that are national contenders (Wisconsin/Minnesota/Michigan), teams that aren't national contenders but have the ability to pull upsets and be generally annoying (Notre Dame), and teams that plainly aren't good (MSU/ASU/OSU/PSU). That Michigan has all but two of their remaining games against that last group sets them up to close out the season strong. 

Though Michigan did lose a game to PSU and MSU earlier this season, both are games that regrettably got away and the team would almost certainly like to have back. The Wolverines should be heavy favorites in every game they play the rest of the way save for the two against Minnesota, although it is worth wondering just how many games they will actually play. The five currently scheduled seem very likely to happen, unless one of the teams contracts COVID, and the postponed MSU game could easily be played as a home-and-home when the two teams meet the week of March 7. The Penn State series is more questionable, in part because the Nittany Lions have recently been hit by an outbreak, which limits the amount of time available to get those games in. No one is playing the weekend of March 13-14, so in theory they could happen then, unless the B1G has a rule disbarring any teams from playing at that time. The best case realistic scenario for the final run is probably sweeping every non-Minnesota team and then splitting with the Gophers in Minneapolis. 

Checking in on the national/B1G picture 

​The Gophers are back on top of the league- for now [Patrick Barron]

Michigan's solid weekend moved them up in the polls, partially due to showing that they are still a dangerous team despite the COVID pause, but also because a few teams above them tripped up. The Wolverines are now 6th in CHN's Power 16 rankings, which I think is the closest replica of what the NCAA selection committee's picks will look like. They now trail North Dakota, Minnesota, BC, Wisconsin, and Minnesota State. To get a 1 seed, Michigan probably has to win to close the season strong and then win the B1G tournament. If they don't do that, we're probably talking about a 2 or a 3 seed. 

As for making the tournament at all, Michigan probably just needs to do what I talked about in the preceding section: take care of business against the lesser teams. The Wolverines can probably afford to get swept by Minnesota and be bounced by Wisco/Minnesota in the B1G tourney and still make the NCAA's, so long as they don't trip up against the lesser teams left on the schedule. I noted a few weeks ago that the college hockey pundits love Michigan and ranking 6th in the national polls would make it quite a steep fall if they somehow didn't end up in the top 16. It would take quite a bit of stepping on the upturned rake to happen. With the way Michigan's been playing since the new year, it shouldn't be an issue. But, they can't afford to give games away to bad teams like happened a few too many times earlier on. 

Looking at the B1G, here are the updated standings: 

1. Minnesota - 2.17 PPG, +43 

2. Wisconsin - 2.06 PPG, +27 

3. Michigan - 1.63 PPG, +28 

4. Notre Dame - 1.50 PPG, -2 

5. Penn State - 1.25 PPG, -9 

6. Michigan State - 0.94 PPG, -21 

7. Ohio State - 0.89 PPG, -31 

It's now a two-horse race for the title and should be quite eventful down the stretch. Wisconsin's got Notre Dame this weekend, followed by MSU and OSU, while Minnesota's got MSU, (maybe) PSU, and Michigan, depending on when the Lions return to play. If Wisconsin can sweep Notre Dame, they'd be in good position to jump back into first, only needing a single Michigan victory over Minnesota (in either regulation or OT/SO) to win the league. However, of course, Minnesota still controls their own destiny.

That jockeying doesn't make much difference for the Maize & Blue, since Michigan seems likely to get the 3 seed, and they will probably have to go through both teams to win the B1G Tournament. The order of who they play first doesn't matter much. Perhaps more relevant is who Michigan would draw in the first round, as the 3 seed plays the 6 seed, which means the race for the bottom is important. The team that finishes higher in the standings between MSU/OSU is likely who the Wolverines will draw in the first round. In my view, the Spartans are a better team and I'd rather face Ohio State, but it may require Michigan losing to OSU this weekend to make that happen, which obviously isn't worth it. Michigan will be a big favorite against either team when the B1G Tournament arrives. 

A Quick OSU Preview 

​The first meeting featured plenty of this... the second meeting should too [JD Scott]

It'll be a rivalry duel Friday and Saturday this weekend in Columbus between Michigan and Ohio State, but at least on paper, this rivalry lacks the luster that it will have in men's and women's basketball this same weekend. Unlike in those two sports, this OSU team is very bad, struggling in a good conference through a painful rebuilding season. The Bucks are 5-14-1 on the season sporting a -31 goal differential, with a lone victory against Holloway-less Wisconsin back in early December standing as the lone highlight of the season. Michigan faced Ohio State at Yost back in January and it wasn't much of a competitive series, as the home team outscored the visitors a combined 9-2 over the two games. The first game had a slight air of competitiveness for two periods due to great goaltending from Tommy Nappier, but it ended in a comfortable 4-2 win before the second game's nasty 5-0 blowout. Michigan outshot Ohio State in both games as well. 

Ohio State just simply doesn't have any aspect of the game that they are demonstrably good at this year. Travis Treloar is the best offensive player on the team and he's well below a point-per-game scoring pace. They rank second-worst in goals-for in the conference and the absolute worst in goals-against in the B1G. The normally-good Tommy Nappier has a .908 SV% and a 3.17 GAA, while backup Evan Moyse's numbers are even worse in limited time. OSU's power play is around both the conference and national median at 19.4%, and it was the method they used to score their only two goals off the Wolverines in January, one of which came in the waning moments of a game which's outcome was determined by that point. Meanwhile their PK, which is normally among the nation's best, sits in the bottom quartile and worst in the B1G at 77.0%. If the Buckeyes wind up in the box, there will be plenty of chances for Michigan to score. 

In conclusion, this is a team that Michigan is a lot better than. That was clear in the first meeting, and as long as the Wolverines play their game, this should be an easy and comfortable rivalry sweep.