Only three weeks ago, Michigan Hockey's NCAA Tournament case was in trouble. Their College Hockey News-calculated probability of making the big dance was down to just over 1/3 and the prospect of the season being deemed an abject failure loomed. In the span of just those three weeks, some six hockey games, Michigan has gone from fading on the bubble to a near-certain tournament team. After this past weekend's sweep of Notre Dame in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan's probability is up to 99.6%.

Since the probability of Michigan missing the NCAAs is now akin to the probability that Donald Trump wins Massachusetts or Joe Biden wins Wyoming in November, we can speak in certain terms: Michigan is going to make the NCAA Hockey Tournament. This week we get to talk about how the Wolverines got there by delivering another clutch two victories with their backs against the wall. After that we'll take another look at the big picture and then pivot to a Minnesota preview. 

 

HockeyBullets on Notre Dame #2 

- Oh Notre Dame, how far have you fallen. One of my biggest takeaways from the weekend, and really the full season of seeing Notre Dame, is how much this program has declined in the late Jeff Jackson years. I don't think it's the offense necessarily, even with losing Rutger McGroarty and Logan Cooley type commits to other schools. Notre Dame didn't have those kinds of players during some of their glory years anyway. If you pull up their stat page from the 2017-18 team that was one win from taking home the national title, that team didn't have top notch scorers or guys who were elite NHL talents. Jake Evans has gone on to be a decent fourth liner in Montreal and that's it. 

What has changed is the manner in which Notre Dame defends and suppresses chances. The Irish at their best ground games down and suffocated opponents like no one's business, the sort of team where it was very hard to come back against. You can go back and find some of my early Hockey Weeklys from 2020 or 2021 where I was talking extensively about how important it was to score first on ND. Allowing the Irish to get a lead and set the tone and make you play on their terms was asking for disaster. 

But this weekend Michigan was able to rally from deficits in the second period in both games and it never was all that difficult. Notre Dame's leads in those two games lasted maybe 20 minutes combined, as the Wolverines were quickly able to get even and then take control back. In all six games Michigan has played against Notre Dame this season, I've never felt that same terror as I used to about falling behind the Irish or the need to score first. Ryan Bischel is a high level college goalie, but the team in front of him doesn't look like it used to. A couple of the goals Michigan scored were really quite startling. Look at this one: 

[Click the JUMP to see it]

McGroarty buries one! Schisky and Brindley with the apples and Michigan leads 2-1 pic.twitter.com/rV7kWO7scr

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 9, 2024

Or how about the game-winner on Saturday: 

Brindley from T Duke and McGroarty! pic.twitter.com/VklnaJ6ub8

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 10, 2024

A nice play from Tyler Duke to come down the wing as a defenseman and make an accurate pass to set up a tap-in goal but what in the world is going on with those two Notre Dame players in the slot? No one defends Duke at all or makes an attempt to break up that pass. That's the sort of defense we are annoyingly used to seeing Michigan play, not Notre Dame. Over the last two seasons it's started to feel less like you're fearing this systematic Irish goal-prevention machine and more about whether their elite goalie will steal a game his lineup of skaters doesn't deserve to win, by keeping out a number of high-danger looks.

Notre Dame's season is done, their second straight NCAA Tournament miss and if you widen the scope, they've really only had one "good" season in the past five years. In 2019-20, Notre Dame was 15-15-7 and 19th in Pairwise with no games left to play (they'd been eliminated from the BTT by Minnesota) when COVID shut the world down. They weren't going to make it that year. In 2020-21 they were 14-13-2 and got picked for the NCAAs in a highly dubious selection that stunned me at the time, the Irish making the cut as the last non-auto bid team in a year where PWR wasn't operable due to no non-conference play. Their inclusion was probably for no reason other than reverence for the B1G's might, as Notre Dame had finished 4th in the league standings. ND got wiped away by a COVID outbreak and never played in that tourney. 

Then there was 2021-22, a genuinely good ND team that was 28-12-0, 3rd in the B1G, won an NCAA Tournament game, and then lost 1-0 in the regional final to Minnesota State. That's the only team up to the standard, because the last two years have seen the Irish finish 4th and now 5th in the B1G with final records of 16-16-5 and 15-19-2. Add it all up, and Notre Dame is 60-63-16 in the four seasons outside that 2022 team. No B1G hardware of any kind, no Frozen Four appearances, and what was damn close to four missed tourneys in five. It feels like that's what Notre Dame is now, a roughly .500 team that is propped up by having a great goalie and a few decent players but lacking in talent and (increasingly) structure relative to the rest of the conference. That latter part has to be most concerning to ND hockey fans and you wonder if it's perhaps time for 68-year-old Jeff Jackson to consider retirement. Jackson is one of the giants of the sport but perhaps it's worth considering because something needs to change for the Fighting Irish to return to the program that went 90-46-17 between 2016 and 2019. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Jake Barczewski and the rollercoaster of goaltending. Last week's column put a lot of focus on the goaltending situation and unfortunately, that continues this week after an up-and-down weekend from Jake Barczewski. The good news? He got two wins and did a big part to slam the door late in the Saturday game. That ought to give him some confidence moving forward. The bad news? A lot of goals went in on not many shots against, continuing a theme from that ugly Minnesota Friday game. Barczewski stopped 50 of 51 shots in the two games against Notre Dame two weeks ago, but followed that up with a very poor showing against Minnesota before he was bonked in the head, ending his weekend. 

It seemed to continue on Friday night, letting in a long range shot from pretty far out with little to no screen that opened the scoring and then a pair of goals in the second period that were not what you want. Here they are:  

Two goals in 59 seconds gives @NDHockey the lead in the second period. 🚨 pic.twitter.com/4zKFX2f46Y

— Big Ten Hockey (@B1GHockey) March 9, 2024

Between the Minnesota game and that first ND game, Barczewski allowed nine goals on 42 shots (.786). Needless to say, you're not going to win  many games when that's going on. Saturday was a better showing, although his 25/28 clip was still below .900. Another point shot found its way by him (a bit of a theme recently) and then he was unable to come up with this rush goal against when it was just him and the shooter 1-on-1 after the initial try was blocked down: 

🚨🚨🚨@pmoynihan19's second of the weekend (and fifth point) was one to write home about.#GoIrish pic.twitter.com/JlCdARhSbu

— Notre Dame Hockey (@NDHockey) March 10, 2024

I wasn't feeling good at all about Barczewski at that point, but his third period may have been the get-right moment. He made two great left pad saves kicking his toe out and taking advantage of the ND shooters' inability to get the puck up in the air. You could tell after the horn sounded how fired up Barczewski was about being the man of the hour to preserve the win and eliminate the Irish. Hopefully that third period has him in a better mindset going forward because while Barczewski was not a world beater for most of the year, he is also better than that stretch of play. Michigan is going to need good goaltending to win another B1G Tournament crown or make the Frozen Four again so they need Barczewski on his game. If you had told me at the start of the season that through 36 games Barczewski would own a .908 SV%, I'd have been pretty happy. However, goaltending is one of those "what have you done for me lately?" sorts of gigs and these next few weeks will be the legacy definers for Barzo. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Freshman update: Nick Moldenhauer and Garrett Schifsky. I wanted to give some recognition to Michigan's freshmen because I thought Nick Moldenhauer played his best series as a Wolverine so far, much more noticeable and lively than usual. Michigan doesn't have many freshmen this season due to a lighter-than-usual recruiting class but Moldenhauer, as well as Garrett Schifsky, are guys I think will be good pieces for the program to build with.

Moldenhauer had a goal on Friday for his only point of the weekend, but he was buzzing around and making good things happen in the offensive zone. I think this year has been about adjusting physically to college hockey because Moldenhauer is a wiry 5'10", listed at only 170 lbs. on the Michigan roster. He's a May 2004 birthday so he came in at 19, but remember that Moldenhauer had a year of development in his USHL days significantly damaged due to a bad illness and a scary, life-threatening skate cut incident. He's younger than his age in terms of his maturation as a hockey player and he's playing against guys 3-4 years older than him and defensemen much larger and more physically developed.

From my vantage point, that's been what has slowed him down at times but the flashes of skill are definitely there. He has 20 points in 36 games, somewhat spiked by Lindenwood and Stonehill, but even if we subtract Stonehill he's got 16 points in 34 games against a pretty difficult schedule. That's solid production for a true freshman who doesn't typically play on the top power play unit. As a 3rd round pick of the Maple Leafs, I think Moldenhauer is probably a three-year player at Michigan unless he majorly blows up next season. Give him an offseason to keep training and bulking up physically (feed this kid some protein and keep him in the weight room!!!) and I think he can become a dangerous winger down the line.

[Bill Rapai]

Garrett Schifsky is also a smaller guy, but he has proven more college-ready, a 20-year-old player came in ready to compete after having a productive USHL career while not playing for a juggernaut like Moldenhauer did with the Chicago Steel. We've given Schifsky a lot of love throughout this year for his achievements as a primarily even strength player and that happened again this weekend. He scored probably the turning point goal of the series on this bizarre shot that found its way by Bischel, a 5v5 goal to trim the ND lead to 4-3 right when Michigan was reeling late in the 2nd period: 

Schifsky from Truscott and Casey and Michigan is back within one pic.twitter.com/swE7BuzYD1

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 9, 2024

Schifsky has 16 goals this season and just one is on the power play. He also has one shorty, so that's 14 even-strength goals. That's tops on the team, ahead of McGroarty, Brindley, Duke, or TJ Hughes. I'm fascinated to see what Schifsky could do with more PP time next season once Michigan graduates a few of their top notch players but as it is, he's an incredibly impactful 5v5 player and those are really valuable. 30 points in 36 games as a freshman (only six of his points are Stonehill/Lindenwood) is a clip that indicates a player who will be a top tier performer down the line. It's unclear which forwards Michigan will lose in the offseason and they have a loaded recruiting class at F coming in, but overall I've been pleased with the play of Schifsky and Moldenhauer and what they're tracking towards. They should definitely be among the leaders next season at F for Michigan. 

 

The Bucks are the big spoilers this year [Bill Rapai]

B1G Picture  

The other two three game series in the B1G Tournament featured one boring series and one extremely interesting series. Minnesota swept Penn State, again muzzling the Nittany Lion offense en route to a pair of victories. PSU's season comes to a close with a record of 15-18-3, a significant drop off from last season due to a combination of veteran attrition and horrific goaltending. See you next year, Guy Gadowsky.

As for the other series, Ohio State achieved B1G history by becoming the first #7 seed to ever defeat a #2 seed in the opening round. In fact, as we mentioned in last week's column, they were the first #7 seed to even win a game in the first round. We keyed in on this possibility last week, because Ohio State swept Wisconsin only a few weeks prior, which ended up being the death knell for Wisconsin's pursuit of the regular season crown. Now the Buckeyes have ended Wisconsin's pursuit of any B1G hardware by taking two of three in Madison, winning on Friday and then again on Sunday in the winner-take-all Game 3. Ohio State isn't really *hot* per se... they're still only 5-4 in their last 9 and 5-6 since the start of February. But four of Ohio State's five wins have been against Wisconsin. For whatever reason, the Buckeyes own the Badgers this season. 

OSU's other win in that sample happens to be against Michigan State, who they pummeled in Munn in mid-February. Now the two teams will do battle in Munn again on Saturday opposite the Michigan/Minnesota matchup. You're probably better off cheering for Ohio State over Michigan State, because A) the Buckeyes are still the worse team and B) the B1G Tournament Championship Game would then be at Yost. No matter the recent sorcery that Ohio State seems to have over Wisconsin (and I guess periodically MSU), you would feel very good about a home game against OSU with the B1G title on the line. All that said, I don't really believe matchups are that important for this Michigan team. They can beat anyone or they can lose to anyone. Michigan's postseason success is much more about themselves playing a detail-oriented, focused game and getting good goaltending than anything opponent dependent. 

 

Bracketology

This week's CHN matrix: 

Let's start with the Michigan implications. The Wolverines are locked into the 3 or 4 line, with a reasonable ceiling of 10th, which is the spot they currently occupy. Their most likely spot in the final Pairwise is 12th, but there's only a slightly higher chance of finishing 12th than there is of finishing 11th. Those two slots account for nearly 2/3rds of final outcomes, so more than likely you're looking at one of the lower ranked 3rd seeds.

If you take a gander at the 2 line, we already have a good idea of who Michigan will play in the tournament as a 3 seed because the 2 line is littered with B1G teams and you can't face your own conference in the first round. Right now the 2 line is MSU, Minn, QPac, and Maine, with Wisconsin lingering as well. Of those five, Michigan can only face QPac and Maine due to the conference requirements, though if Denver slips to a 2 seed (not likely but possible), they would be an obvious pairing as well. So one of those three teams, QPac, Maine, and Denver, are the most likely opponents for Michigan right now. Since Michigan has faced QPac two years in a row and played Denver two years ago in Boston, I would prefer Maine just for the novelty. That would be different and fun. 

Broadening our scope out, Boston College remains locked into the 1st overall seed and will likely be paired with the winner of the CCHA (Bemidji won the regular season title). Boston University is very likely to be the 2nd seed and would probably get the Atlantic Hockey winner (RIT won the regular season title), but the 1 vs 4 bracketology is extremely sticky based on conference requirements and host sites. If UMass gets into the tournament, they will likely do so as a 4 seed which is problematic because they are the hosts of the Springfield regional. The host team must participate in that regional if they make it in but due to geography, you'd figure one of the Boston schools is headed to Springfield. They are in the same conference as UMass and thus would not be eligible to face UMass in the first round as a 4 seed.

Michigan could see QPac again [David Wilcomes]

I am not entirely sure how the committee would resolve this problem. The answer should be to abolish the rule about hosting because it's incredibly stupid. Case in point, Providence is not hosting the Providence regional (Brown is) and thus don't have to appear in that regional, yet UMass, a college that isn't even in Springfield, Massachusetts, is hosting that one and has to be there. Like so many things with the NCAA Hockey Tournament, this is poorly designed and illogical. Compounding the problems for the bracket makers is the glut of NCHC and B1G teams making the tourney, who are bunched up in the 2/3/4 range. If the tournament started today there would be 5 NCHC teams, 4 B1G teams, and 4 Hockey East teams. The ECAC and CCHA's declines have not been good for a tournament whose arbitrary rules dictate no intra-conference first round matchups because there are barely enough teams from the different conferences in the field to make that physically possible. 

This is set to be a busy weekend on the bubble in college hockey. Teams #14 and #15, UMass and Providence, play in a single-elimination game on Saturday night in the Hockey East Tournament quarterfinals. Winner gets a chance to slip into the NCAA Tournament at the semifinals in Boston the next weekend, while the loser sees their season come to an end. If you're an NCAA bracket-maker, you're cheering like hell for UMass to lose. Teams #11 and #13, Colorado College and Omaha, play in an also-huge series in the NCHC Tournament. Same for #12 Western Michigan and #18 St. Cloud State, the latter of whom has been fading hard and needs a deep run in the NCHC Tournament (to the finals at least) to get in. #17 UNH is also in trouble and need a win over UMass-Lowell on Wednesday and then a win over Maine on Saturday to keep going. A loss in either game ends their season. 

All of this is a long way of saying is that we will have a much better idea of the tournament picture after this weekend, with the bubble being culled significantly. Several teams who have been appearing in Peter's rooting guides for the past few weeks will see their seasons come to an end with elimination from their conference tournaments, taking Pairwise dips that will bump them out of the top 14. All of this helps Michigan, because their spot at #10 would be much more precarious if there wasn't so much overlap between the bubble teams. If the teams #11-16 were pretty evenly distributed between the six conferences, Michigan would not be in a secure position. But because they are bunched up in two conferences, with most facing each other in the first round, it means only a couple can make deep conference tournament runs that shake up the bubble. A lot has gone right for the Wolverines lately, not just in their own play, but the way these conference tournament brackets lay out as well. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Gopher Day, Again 

Michigan played Notre Dame, then Minnesota, then Notre Dame, and now... Minnesota. The alternating pattern continues as these two teams meet in the B1G Tournament for the fourth straight season, playing in Minneapolis for the third straight year. Minnesota knocked off Michigan in OT in the neutral site South Bend Tournament back in the COVID 2020-21 season and then Michigan has bested the Gophers to win the tournament crown each of the last two years. These two squads know each other all too well and they are very familiar with these sorts of stakes on the line. 

Minnesota has been hot in the second half of the season, 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after beginning calendar 2024 with a loss to Colorado College. They've gone to OT four times in that span, two wins and one loss + the one tie. Their lone loss was the most recent meeting with Michigan, a 6-5 defeat that saw Seamus Casey win it on a 4v3 PP in the extra session. In the season series Minnesota beat Michigan twice in regulation, 4-3 at Yost in the fall and 6-2 in the first game of the series two weeks ago, where Michigan's decent first period gave way to a very poor effort in the back-half of the game. In the other two games, Michigan "won" but once in overtime and once in a shootout, the latter being the second game at Yost in the November series. Michigan led Minnesota in the third period of three of the four games this season but won none of them in regulation... now would be a good time to finally finish one off. 

As you can tell from that summary, these two teams have played very lively and competitive games. I'd expect this weekend to be no different. The name for Minnesota to know as of late is captain Jaxon Nelson, who terrorized the Maize & Blue two weeks ago and now is up to eight goals in his last five games(!). Jimmy Snuggerud is still their best (and most pro-ready) player, 20 goals to lead the team but Rhett Pitlick is right behind him with 19. I described Minnesota in this column a couple weeks back as a team that does everything decently well but has no obvious strengths and I think that's still true. They have a pretty good goalie in Justen Close (.923 SV%). They can play good defense and strangle a team, as they've been doing to PSU. They can also hang 5+ goals on you, as they've done to Michigan recently. They can play a lot of different kinds of games, not overwhelming in talent but plenty talented and well-coached. The task won't be easy but Michigan has never had issues scoring on Justen Close for whatever reason and if recent history is any lesson, defending leads will be the most important task.