Because the main goal of the Michigan Hockey schedule in 2023-24 seemed to be "make sure all of the games overlap with football", hockey heads into the Christmas break at the same time that football takes its month off. The Michigan Wolverines have played 18 games, posting an 8-7-3 record (3-5-2 in the B1G) in a season that's been frustrating and below expectations, but many factors (mainly injuries) have played a role in that. Today, in my first hockey piece in ~six weeks, I will recap all that has gone down, draw some conclusions about how to feel and what needs to improve, and the big picture headed into 2024. 

A brief summary since I last wrote about hockey 

My last hockey piece was back during the football bye week, six games into the season when Michigan was 3-2-1. They were a few weeks in and we were making first observations, with the irrelevant Lindenwood series coming up, priced in as easy wins. The Wolverines pummeled the Lions to move to 5-2-1 as expected, but since then it's been extremely choppy. Michigan started November with a road trip to Wisconsin, two matches that began to raise concern about late-game collapses. Michigan led the first game 4-2 in the second and 4-3 with five minutes left and lost in regulation. The second game was tied 1-1 with one minute to play and Michigan also lost in regulation. Five combined minutes away from either 4 or 5 B1G points out of 6 from the weekend and instead they got zero. 

The next week Michigan played host to Minnesota and it was Groundhog Day. Michigan led the first game 3-1 in the second, 3-2 well into the third, and were tied 3-3 with four minutes to go and lost in regulation. On night two they led 2-1 with five minutes to go, blew the lead again, but at least this time went to OT and won in a shootout. Penn State made a trip to Ann Arbor the next weekend, Michigan winning a high scoring game 6-4 on Friday before losing on Saturday 5-3. They led 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 but at least this time the lead was blown by the end of the second period. 

[Bill Rapai]

As these frustrating weeks have rolled along, Michigan's players have continued to drop like flies. We were already discussing defensemen injuries in my last piece and since then the injury malaise has ravaged the forward room. Michigan lost Jackson Hallum for the season against Wisconsin and then during that PSU series Michigan lost star forward Rutger McGroarty to an injury that knocked him out for the rest of the first half on a big hit into the boards. They also had Mark Estapa and Dylan Duke suffer injuries of varying severities, meaning they played the second game a forward short. This all coming only a couple weeks after injuries had forced them to play with (essentially) five defensemen in Madison. Not ideal!! 

Over Thanksgiving Michigan headed to St. Cloud for a non-conference series against the Huskies, winning in a 2-0 shutout on Friday. Of course on Saturday they had to darken the mood of the Michigan fanbase hours after football's triumph over OSU by blowing a 3-0 third period lead. The game ended in a 3-3 tie, though they played a meaningless shootout for the hell of it. This past weekend was the final series of the first half, starting with a disastrous effort on Friday night in a 6-1 defeat to Notre Dame that saw Michigan play their worst game in arguably multiple seasons. The good news is that the squad rebounded back a sharp 2-1 win on Saturday, managing to hold the one-goal lead for nearly 24 minutes to the finish line. So, perhaps signs of progress. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Takes on the first half]

 

[Bill Rapai]

First Half Takes 

- Let's talk about those collapses. It's what every discussion of this team has to start with. Of the 10 games that Michigan has either lost in regulation or tied this season, they held a third period lead in six of them. Of the remaining four, they were tied in the 3rd period with a minute left in one of them and held three separate first/second period leads in a different one. Only twice in 18 games this season has Michigan been way behind the 8-ball/never in position to either win or go to OT. That they have ended up losing or drawing 10 of their 18 games when those are the game conditions that preceded the eventual outcome is immensely frustrating and beyond parody at this point. 

Over the course of this season David and I have debated on the HockeyCast what the hell is going on with these collapses. My best guess is there are several factors: Michigan isn't a very good defensive team and their goaltender is average, which means they are not necessarily best positioned to close games out based on natural ability, but also 1.) they have displayed a startling lack of situational awareness at times, 2.) they have gotten some bad luck, and 3.) it's probably gotten in their head. To the latter point, when you blow that many games in the third period, at some point it has to sink in and becomes a monkey on your back until you start closing games out with consistency. Hopefully the strong finish to the Notre Dame game on Saturday is the first step to gaining that consistency. 

As for my other explanations, bad luck is certainly a factor. Not just the injuries and the resulting impacts on fatigue and the depth chart, which deserve their own bullet, but some of the leads they've blown have featured goals that are poor puck luck. It happens. But for me the biggest story is the team's poor defensive ability and in tandem with that, their failure to extend leads. The critical third period goal that pushes the lead from one to two has been mostly nonexistent this season and without building up a cushion, this team isn't good enough defensively or in net to sit back and try to simply play defense. I'd like to see them attack more and try and generate some more offense because puck possession and offensive zone time are better ways for this particular team of players to defend leads than trying to bog down the opponent in the neutral zone and defend with precision in their own end. They don't win enough puck battles, nor defend well enough around their net or against entries to make that a primary strategy. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Even strength offense... or offense in general? A few weeks back I raised the alarm on the HockeyCast about Michigan's 5v5 goal production sagging against power conference opponents. They beat up on Lindenwood but were not consistently generating offense at 5v5 against the real teams, relying too heavily on a PP that was firing at an unsustainable clip. Since then they have played somewhat better, especially against the porous defense/goaltending of Penn State, but then scored eight total goals in four games against St. Cloud and Notre Dame. Important to remember the injuries to the offensive pieces and that those teams are good defensive squads, but still something to monitor. 

In terms of the team offense, a lot of the names we expected to be the points leaders are indeed the leaders: Seamus Casey on defense + Gavin Brindley, Dylan Duke, Rutger McGroarty, TJ Hughes, and Frank Nazar III. Unfortunately some of these players have been too PP reliant for my liking, or their production too Lindenwood reliant. Brindley is most notable under that umbrella, putting up 3-3-6 in two games against Lindenwood and 7-5-12 in the other 16. Just three points and one goal for Brindley in his last nine is less than ideal as well. TJ Hughes' production has been too PP concentrated, although his 5v5 scoring has picked up quite a bit since I was harping on it in mid-November. That said, 15 of 22 points coming with the man-advantage is quite stark. 11 of Duke's 20 points are PP points as well, which is reflective of why Michigan still boasts the NCAA's #2 PP, but also shows why there has been reason for concern in terms of 5v5 scoring at times. 

[Bill Rapai]

All that said, if we're discussing 5v5 offense we have to shout out the heroes: Nazar and Garrett Schifsky. While some of the team's highest scorers have been too PP reliant, Schifsky has done it all at even strength. Schifsky has 16 points in 18 games, not a single one coming on the PP (one shorthanded point, however). All eight of his goals this season were 5v5 goals, tops on the team, and he's done it without playing with Brindley or McGroarty. Instead it has been him and Nazar, who has done good work at even strength himself, who have been the best 5v5 point producers for Michigan. As a true freshman, Schifsky has been a very welcome surprise and an unsung hero of this team. 

Ultimately, I don't think Michigan's offense is a concern, but the team's defense will need to get better because I don't think they can outscore all their problems like they could the last two seasons. They have good offensive players, but they don't have a singular game-breaking player like Adam Fantilli or a wealth of offensive riches like when Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Kent Johnson, Thomas Bordeleau, and Brendan Brisson were all on one squad. Nazar has been good but not lottery pick good. Duke, McGroarty, Brindley all quality NCAA players with pro potential, but again, a bit of a cut below what we're used to.

Schifsky has provided some quality depth, but it is more limited due to injury than it has been in the past as well. Subtract 19 goals in two games against Lindenwood and Michigan is scoring 3.3 per game, which is more towards the middle of D1 than the elite. They aren't a poor offensive team, which is why I'm saying offense isn't a concern, but the tandem of this being not a peak roster year and the mountain of injuries have conspired to make Michigan a good, not great, offensive team. I don't see a ton of untapped offensive potential on this roster either, so if this team is to make a run in the second half, it will need to come from keeping pucks out of the net. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

- BEEN INJURED IN AN ACCIDENT? CALL 1-800-HELP-ME1 TODAY. As disappointed as I have been at times with the team's performance I have to be reminded of how devastating the injury bug has been to Michigan. The preseason injury to Ethan Edwards, who should return in the second half, hampered a blue line that wasn't super deep to begin with. Toss in the preseason expulsion of Johnny Druskinis for a violation of team rules and the depth has been trimmed, leaving the team with only six defensemen they feel comfortable playing in any real manner... and that's with two of those six defenders (Holtz and Luca Fantilli) being players I'd probably put a cyan circle on if we had a hockey FFFF diagram. 

The depleted defense was left highly vulnerable to any additional injuries, which have happened. Tyler Duke has been in and out of the lineup, missing three games, Steve Holtz missed the Minnesota series, and Luca Fantilli missed a game as well. This has forced Josh Orrico and Brendan Miles to suit up for a combined 11 games and their usage in those games confirms that they are not players the coaching staff wants to use under any circumstance. Orrico has been the one to slot in as the sixth D when an injury pops up and when he suits up in that role, he generally plays a few shifts in the 1st/2nd periods before vanishing for nearly the entire 3rd period. Functionally, Michigan was skating with five D when Holtz/Tyler Duke have been out, which wears on you over the course of a game and season. 

[Bill Rapai]

At forward, Michigan entered the season with only 14 to begin with. Jackson Hallum being done for the year sucks for so many reasons, depriving the team of a valuable middle six winger and stunting the kid's career development after a promising start to his junior campaign. That trimmed them to 13 and as I mentioned, Mark Estapa and Rutger McGroarty both haven't played since November 17. Both could be back in January, but it's a precarious situation. Even with both guys healthy, the Hallum injury guarantees your bottom six looks rather thin offensively. Spots 8-12 on the forward depth chart have to be taken by four of Chase Pletzke, Kienan Draper, Tanner Rowe, Estapa, and Philippe Lapointe... players who have combined for four total goals this season (only two of which being 5v5 goals). Basically, the forward injuries are forcing Michigan to ice a 4th line that is a total non-factor offensively, a contributor to the offensive reality I outlined. 

All of this is to say that I do think playing with (essentially) 5 D and short a forward or two has been another reason for the late game collapses. The team, especially in late November as the injuries have piled up, has visibly seemed out of gas in the third period. The best example of this was the second Penn State game, where they trailed 4-3 going into the third against a bad defensive team and ultimately made no push to tie the game. They looked exhausted and the mileage on the tires has worn them down. It's hurt them late in games, has limited the ceiling of their offense, and has made their defense unquestionably weaker by trimming its numbers and forcing us to watch much more of Luca Fantilli and Steve Holtz than we'd like. Michigan Hockey has battled injuries at points in my time covering the team (dating back to 2017-18) but I have never seen a year where they've gotten as thoroughly ravaged by injury like this season. Whether they can patch it together and overcome the difficult hand they've been dealt is the story of the second half. 

[Bill Rapai]

- Jake Barczewski... fine? I think the best way to describe Barczewski is indeed "fine". He's got a .913 which is, funny enough, the exact same SV% he had when I last wrote about hockey. I described him as decent when I wrote that piece and that remains the same in my view. He's not an elite, lockdown goalie and that is another contributor to the late game collapses, but it could also be a lot worse. Penn State and their .877 team SV% is evidence of that. Barczewski hasn't let in too many howlers, some soft goals but few killers. The number of A+ saves is also not terribly high, but if you came into the season and told me this was the level of goaltending the team would get, I'd have been very optimistic.

The story of the first half has more often been the team in front of Barczewski failing him than the other way around and that's fine by me. You can't expect much more than that from Barczewski's profile and so it will be on the team of skaters in front of him to take their game up a notch in the second half to get Michigan into the tournament, rather than banking on a 5th year senior magically getting a ton better. He is who he is and that should be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

- Defend the front of the goddamn net. Michigan's defensive problems are traced back to two major issues, netfront coverage in general and the entire penalty kill unit. The netfront coverage has been "turn me into the Joker" level bad at times and it's almost always the same story: Michigan defensemen in position in front of the net as the puck carrier arrives, only to leave the netfront to pursue the puck carrier. The puck carrier sees the pressure he's drawn in, slips the pass through them and the forward who the defender was covering only seconds earlier taps it in for an easy goal. Example: 

N64 is back and better than ever! 🎮

24 ➡️ 18 ➡️ 22 pic.twitter.com/dUTDn6rlQF

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) November 11, 2023

that Friday night game against Minnesota alone had three separate instances of this including the above clip, deserting the netfront yet letting a pass go right through you for a netfront goal. You have to do one or the other, stay at the netfront and tie up the forward in front or go at the puck carrier knowing you cannot let the pass through. Going to attack the puck but then letting the pass through is certain death every time. If I am Brandon Naurato, I'm telling them to simply stick with your guy. Let the puck carrier circle around and trust your goalie. Take away the passing options and box out in front in case of a rebound. This shouldn't be that hard but it has been. 

The issue of not taking away passes has been at its most severe on the penalty kill. Through 18 games the team's PK% sits at just 75.4%, tied for 57th out of 64 teams. Not good enough and a throwback to the first Mel Pearson team whose disastrous PK singlehandedly knocked them out of the Frozen Four in St. Paul. The PK has haunted Michigan far too often over the past seven seasons and this one is near the bottom in terms of worst groups I've covered. They don't provide enough pressure in zone for my liking but the biggest thing remains the passing situation. They don't take away cross-seam passes well enough and allow far too much unrestricted puck movement, even if just around the perimeter. If there's one thing I would use this long layoff until January for (besides resting), it would be rebooting the penalty kill. I'd rather see them take a few more chances at being disruptive on the perimeter rather than be passive when the team's ability to obstruct passes is wretched. 

 

[Wisconsin Athletics]

The B1G Picture 

Team	GP	Points	Pt%	Conf. Record	GD
Michigan St.	8	19	.792	5-0-1-2	+16
Wisconsin	8	18	.750	6-2-0-0	+26
Notre Dame	8	15	.625	4-2-1-1	+5
Penn State	8	11	.458	2-3-2-1	+15
Minnesota	10	13	.433	3-4-1-2	+10
Michigan	10	12	.400	3-5-1-1	+19
Ohio St.	8	2	.083	0-7-1-0	-17

By Pts%, Michigan sits in sixth place in the conference out of seven teams, a hair behind PSU/Minnesota and well behind MSU/Wisconsin/Notre Dame, ahead of only Ohio State. The Buckeyes look like a tire fire this season, with just two points through eight games (please don't look up which team gave OSU their only points in conference play). I don't think Penn State is very good either, but so long as they sit ahead of Michigan in the standings I can't exactly trash them too much. The Gophers have looked very similar to Michigan and their series at Yost was evidence of that, sorting through problems related to youth and not having a blue line of all NHL defensemen for the first time in several seasons. 

What's most disappointing about the season to date is when I look at the top group in the standings, Wisconsin and Michigan State, I don't think those teams are, from a 50 foot view, any better than Michigan. We haven't seen Michigan play the Spartans yet, but Michigan went into Madison and had a lead with 5 minutes to go in one game and were tied with a minute to go in the other game. In terms of the run of play, Michigan was matching Wisconsin blow for blow. Even Notre Dame, who are not quite in that top group but are clearly ahead of Michigan in the standings, just split in South Bend with a shorthanded Wolverine squad. Michigan, in terms of their talent and the run of play/shot quality generation/etc, is just as good as anyone in the conference, but has likely already been eliminated from the running for the conference regular season title because of their chronic inability to finish games. 

 

[Michigan State Athletics]

Five better minutes in Madison and Michigan walks out of there with 4/6 points. Then factor in they left 2-4 points on the table between the Minnesota and Ohio State series and it's not hard to imagine a world where the Wolverines are tied with MSU atop the standings right now, injuries and all. Unfortunately, they only have theirselves to blame for throwing away that opportunity night after night in eerily similar fashion. While run of play/possession/xG sorts of metrics are useful predictive measures for forecasting the future, they don't totally capture the past. I do believe Michigan isn't any worse on a talent or game control basis than Wisconsin or MSU, but through the first half they have been worse in totality because your record is who you are and those teams close games out- Michigan hasn't. That matters. 

As for those teams at the top, Wisconsin I think is probably my favorite to win the regular season crown. They played their series against Minnesota and MSU both on the road, so they should have a more favorable draw in the second half. They're a depth scoring team over stars and don't put a ton of pucks in the net as a team, but first year coach Mike Hastings' new systems have transformed Wisconsin's defense and taken a ton of pressure off the goalie position, allowing Kyle McClelland (.934) to excel. MSU has rode their depth scoring and high-flying games to success, scoring a sizzling 4.3 GPG. Trey Augustine has been fine in net, but offense from all over the lineup has been the name of the game for Sparty. They will end the NCAA drought this season, even if I think they're a touch behind Wisco for this chase (yes, I know MSU swept Wisconsin. I'm going off the full season profile and who is more likely to win the conference regular season title). 

 

[Bill Rapai]

The National Picture and the Road Ahead

HockeyCast listeners know that I am a firm believer in Nate Wells' line about PairWise being irrelevant until New Year's Day. I stand by that, so I won't delve too deeply into the PWR yet. What it does show is Michigan around the bubble and while we're still a month out from calendar 2024, I don't anticipate that description of Michigan's position changing too much since fewer games are played in December than any other month. When 2024 arrives and I start to care about PWR, Michigan will likely still be a bubble squad. 

Which feels about right. They played what has turned out to be a reasonably challenging non-conference schedule, with both UMass and Providence sitting in the middle of the pack in a strong HockeyEast and St. Cloud at the top of the standings in a weaker NCHC. Michigan split with all three of those teams. Factor in Michigan treading water in a strong B1G and you get to the bubble. Can't be above the bubble when you're only 8-7-3 but the strength of schedule does wonders and places a .500 record squarely on the bubble. 

Nationally, the CCHA looks very weak and the ECAC doesn't look any better outside of Quinnipiac, who are very good again. The HockeyEast is resurgent thanks to two talent-laden rosters at the iconic Boston schools (BU/BC) + the revival of Maine and plucky years from Providence/UMass, The NCHC looks decent but not as good as it has been, while the B1G is highly competitive. I think the path to the one line is closed off, but the B1G and HockeyEast are probably going to stock the 2/3 line and there's no reason Michigan can't jump into that grouping and finish, say, 10th in PWR with a strong second half. They're in the right conference to be maximally rewarded for a strong January/February. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

The Wolverines return to action after a long, long layoff on January 12/13 against Stonehill. If you do not remember my ramblings about Stonehill, they are utterly terrible and should not have been scheduled. They are 0-16 with a -57 goal differential, having lost games to D3 Utica College and D3 Anna Maria College. Playing them is less productive than playing the club team in a closed scrimmage but it pads the record and stats I guess. Michigan doesn't have to rush players back from injury for that series, so the second half functionally starts on January 19/20, some seven weeks after the last Michigan Hockey game. That's a long time for the team to rest up and just what the doctor ordered. 

After that it will be back to the B1G grind with no bye week. Over the final seven weeks, Michigan will see MSU twice and every other B1G once. Not too much to say other than every game is crucial, getting as many regulation wins as possible but if nothing else, getting to OT to get partial wins/losses for standings and PWR purposes should be the bare minimum. Michigan cannot afford to mess around and toss games away, but if they can just get over that hump and start to close games with better efficiency, I like their odds of making a push. With Ethan Edwards presumably back in the lineup, the defense should be better and players like Schifsky and Nick Moldenhauer should be growing as the year goes along.

For all their flaws, this is still a top 12 team in even strength possession with elite shooters that outshoots and out-chances its opposition most nights. That's a good starting place to build around and predict a strong second half with. Tighten up the screws on the PK, play better third periods, and continue to score at a high clip on the PP and Michigan should bank points/wins at a much higher rate, one good enough to get into the NCAAs. Injuries have made this picture more challenging, but all hope is not lost and there were plenty of good things from the first half to build on in the second half. Mel Pearson's teams were uniformly better in the second half of the season than the first half. Now it's Brandon Naurato's turn to oversee growth and transformation, with hopefully better health included, and get this imperfect squad into the NCAA Tournament.