ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#1 Michigan vs #2 Penn St.
WHERE	PPL Center Allentown, PA
WHEN	6:30 PM EST
KRACH Prob.	Michigan (59.0%)
TELEVISION	ESPN2

OVERVIEW

Here we go, gang: one win from the Frozen Four. In an all-B1G matchup, Michigan will play Penn State for the fifth time this season... this time it comes with a trip to Tampa on the line. Win and you notch the program's 27th Frozen Four appearance. Lose and the season is over. All the stakes in the world! 

THE US

Michigan matched an NCAA Tournament record for most goals in a game on Friday night with an eleven goal(!) outburst against Colgate in the opening round. Michigan got on the board in the first with a goal from Nick Granowicz set up beautifully by Luke Hughes, but that was the only tally through 27 minutes. Michigan was the better team but Colgate was getting a few looks and Raiders' goalie Carter Gylander was keeping them in the game. The turning point turned out to be Eric Ciccolini potting a loose puck in front of the net on the PP to put Michigan ahead 2-0 with 12:27 remaining in the second period.

After Ciccolini scored, the dam broke wide open. Adam Fantilli scored on a solo rush just 45 seconds later to give Michigan a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 edge. A few minutes later Frank Nazar III and Mark Estapa scored within 30 seconds of each other to blow it open 5-0 and the score sat at 8-0 by the end of the second period. Colgate got on the board early in the third but after Alex Young classlessly speared Mackie Samoskevich, Michigan decided to pour it on during the ensuing five minute PP, scoring three more times. The final score sat at 11-1, a total massacre of the highest order. Every Michigan forward recorded a point and Michigan outshot Colgate 52-21 (shot attempts were 83-45!). As lopsided as you'll ever see in this godawful tournament. 

THE THEM

[Bill Rapai]

These guys again. The Ice Lions were the second team in the B1G that Michigan finished their season series with, and given that Michigan played Minnesota in the B1G Tournament, PSU is the conference opponent that Michigan has gone the longest without seeing. It's been since the final weekend in January when Michigan last met Penn State, a wild series at Yost that saw penalty controversy, individual achievement, and oodles of goals. Michigan scored twelve times in those two games, while PSU scored seven times. We'll get back to that in a minute.

The teams also played twice in the fall in Hockey Valley, the first one being a bizarre game that PSU dominated Michigan in, a contest that seemed as if Michigan was asleep (they lost 3-0 with just 17 shots on goal, the only time M has been shut out this season). The next night Michigan led 3-0, playing with fire and in complete control until a late third period meltdown allowed Penn State to tie it in the span of just four minutes, before Adam Fantilli won it in OT, 4-3. 

So Michigan won the regular season series 3-1, with one win coming in the extra session. Penn State owned shot attempts in all those games but there are two notes on that: 1.) PSU owns shot attempts against almost every team they play because of their style and 2.) Michigan has grown up quite a bit since either of the first two series against the Ice Lions. Michigan is playing a better, more controlled style of hockey in recent weeks and has gotten better goaltending from Erik Portillo than they did against Penn State the first time around. Which leads me to the final note about the season series: the series in State College came when Portillo was ill, leaving Noah West to play goal for those two games. Just something to keep in mind. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More Ice Lions]

[Bill Rapai]

Now let's talk about Penn State more in depth. Guy Gadowski's team returns to the NCAA Tournament in large part because of their non-conference schedule; they figured out long ago the same hacks that Arizona State and Alaska discovered, that if you schedule a lot of terrible teams and then run the table against those teams, your PWR looks a lot better than it may have otherwise been. Penn State went 10-0 in the non-conference against Canisius, Mercyhurst, St. Thomas, RIT, and Alaska, which are an independent, three Atlantic Hockey teams, and a newbie bottom barrel CCHA team. I have nothing against PSU on principle, but let me just say that for a B1G team, that is an utterly pathetic non-conference schedule and it should NOT be rewarded by PWR. It would be nice if the committee could figure out how to clean up that hole in the system. 

That non-conference slate and PSU's overwhelming success against it is why the Ice Lions made it in the NCAA Tournament as a *2 seed* despite the fact they finished 6th out of 7 teams in the B1G, below Notre Dame and tied with MSU, two teams that didn't even make the tournament. MSU and ND missed out because they had the guts to actually schedule real teams and you know, risk losing some of those. So here we are, a team with a losing record and a negative goal differential in B1G play (10-10 in regulation, 0-4 in OT), is the 2 seed in Michigan's region, playing in the regional final. 

What we learned on Thursday and Friday, it turns out, is that the B1G was loaded this year and even being 6th of 7 in the conference means you were actually very good nationally. Maybe that should have been justification to venture out and play a harder non-conference schedule, Mr. Gadowsky??? The B1G teams rolled through the first round and PSU was in that same bucket, ripping Michigan Tech to shreds 8-0(!). They completely controlled the game wire-to-wire and torched one of the best goalies in the country in Blake Pietila, scoring 8 times on 39 shots. It was an impressive performance, but perhaps not quite as intimidating as it would be if we didn't have a good measuring stick of PSU against Michigan, as well as common opponents. 

[Bill Rapai]

As always, PSU plays their aggressive shoot-and-retrieve style. They led the NCAA in shots per game by a full three shots, a stat they lead the country in nearly every year, mostly because of their style but also getting a boost from a notoriously "generous" shot-counter at home. Their quantity over quality approach to offense has mostly worked this season, top ten in the country in goals per game at 3.4, doing it on a very low 8.5% team shooting percentage which reflects their "toss everything at the net" style.

Kevin Wall leads the way with 17 goals, but after that it's a true ensemble effort: nine players have between eleven and seven goals. Even counting Wall, they don't have a hoss you have to account for like the Cooley line with Minnesota. Rather, it's waves of guys who can chip in and they make it happen through volume shooting, deflections, rebounds, etc. as opposed to pure shooting talent or raw skill. The firewagon style of offense and the lack of raw shooting talent is reflected in a poor power play contrasting their great 5v5 offense. Penn State's 15.2% power play clip is bottom 15 of the country, and startling considering their very good overall offensive stats. This is not a team where you're scared of a guy standing in the circle and sniping.

You're also not terribly concerned about them shutting you down either. Penn State is middle of the pack nationally in goals against per game and you have to do a strength of schedule adjustment to account for the 20 goals they allowed in 11 games against that non-conference (+ NCAA). In B1G play, the Ice Lions allowed 84 goals in 27 games, 3.11 goals against per game, not exactly dominant defensively. Though they do tilt the ice in terms of shot share, they give up plenty of shots and quality looks, 29.3 shots against per game (again middle of the country) and a quick scan of any PSU game this season against a good opponent reveals plenty of quality looks going the other way too. They've shut out the opponent just three times this season, once against a feeble Wisconsin team, against Tech (also a dreadful offensive team) on Friday, and then the first meeting with Michigan, where it's not clear if the Wolverine players had a pulse during that game. They like to beat you 5-3 not 3-1. 

[Bill Rapai]

SPECIAL TEAMS

I mentioned in the previous section that Penn State does not have a great power play and that extends to their penalty kill. They are just 76.7% on the PK this season and that reflects a middling defense and a good-but-not-great goalie. Shorties are pretty neutral this season, Penn State having scored a couple and having allowed three. Their 19 PPGs reflect the nature of the offense: 13 players have at least one goal and the team leader is Ture Linden with 3 (tied with Ashton Calder). This is a diverse attack. 

As for Michigan, not much has changed since Friday, given that Colgate appeared to be more of an exhibition opponent than anything else. The Wolverines kept Colgate to 0/3 on the man-advantage while Michigan's PP got a healthy boost in the numbers, scoring four times on the PP (three on that five minute major) which made them "4/6" on the night. That bumps Michigan's PP% up to 23.8%, 11th in the NCAA, and the sum of their PP and PK is now back over 100, sitting at 101.5. PSU is wallowing down at 91.9%... Michigan hasn't been great on special teams this year, but they do have the decisive edge in this matchup. 

[Bill Rapai]

GOALIES 

PSU's return to the NCAA Tournament has been fueled in part by the improvement in goalie play that they've gotten from Liam Souliere. After five rotten games as a freshman in the COVID year, he had a .905 last season to take the crease from Oskar Autio, but it wasn't until this season that he achieved "good enough to get PSU into the tournament" territory, with a .915. That said, we again have to look at games against non-B1G teams vs. the B1G given that we've learned how much better the B1G is than every other conference. Against the non-con + Michigan Tech, Souliere saved 225 of 238 shots (.945). Against the B1G, his SV% was a .904. Michigan in particular was a bit of a bugaboo, save for the first game. After making all 17 stops for a shutout against an asleep Wolverines squad, he stopped just 53 of 66 shots over the next three games for an .803!!!! Souliere is a solid college goalie but he has definitely demonstrated himself to be quite vulnerable to the NHL shooters Michigan possesses. 

I have been hard on Erik Portillo this season, but going into this game, I would rather have Portillo in net than Souliere. Part of that is a condemnation of Souliere against higher level teams, sure, but Portillo also has been playing better as of late. He was pretty sharp against Colgate, allowing one goal on 21 shots against. Colgate was overmatched, but they did get some high quality looks off the rush early and Portillo was locked in, stopping everything he saw until the game was out of hand. He had one incident with a puck he needed to catch and squeeze but otherwise looked fine in that aspect of the game. A steadier, more structural Portillo is a source of optimism and it's hard for me to love Souliere's chances against Michigan when over his last seven games against Michigan and Minnesota (the two teams with high level NHL shooters in the B1G), he posted a cumulative .870. 

[Bill Rapai]

KEYS

Show off your superior shooting talent. I expect Michigan to play a more even game than the first four meetings because the Wolverines are better coached and have a stricter adherence to a system/structure now, but it's worth noting that Michigan won 3 of the first 4 meetings despite being outshot (sometimes egregiously) in every game. Why? They finished way more of their chances because they have better shooters. Penn State is an experienced team (top nine scorers are all juniors/seniors) but they do not have skill like Michigan. They've got a pair of late round picks and that's it. Michigan has four or five elite shooters who can (and will in the future) snipe past NHL goalies. Michigan won the season series because PSU wants to play a similar style to Michigan, but the Wolverines have the vastly more talented players. Make that clear again today. 

Don't get phased by the crowd. If you've read or listened to my content this week, I have generally been dismissive of the "road environment" factor that will likely be the case today, with PSU being in Allentown. I don't put too much stock in road environments in hockey (relative to say, CFB/CBB) but let's say PSU scores an early goal and the crowd does get riled up? Don't let it change anything. It shouldn't effect the game, but it's on the Michigan players to make that so. 

Replicate the closing time sequence from Minnesota. If Michigan has a lead late in the game, let's say with four minutes to go to make it to Tampa, they now have a playbook on how to take care of that circumstance, because they did it beautifully against the Gophers. Minnesota got next to nothing in those closing moments, as Michigan pushed everything to the perimeter, forced turnovers, and cleared the zone promptly. It was masterfully done and when we remember that Michigan melted down in the third in this building a year ago, as well as doing so in a similar fashion against this very opponent back in the fall, the Maize & Blue have some unfinished business to get right in the third protecting a lead today.  

Don't take a 5 minute major. Obligatory. Been a while since the last one, keep it going. PSU doesn't have a good PP, sure, but don't give them five extended minutes to change that. 

PREDICTIONS

are stupid for a one game hockey playoff