ESSENTIALS

WHAT	Michigan vs American International
WHERE	PPL Center Allentown, PA
WHEN	3:00 PM EST
KRACH Prob.	Michigan (85.7%)
TELEVISION	ESPNU

OVERVIEW

Welcome to the worst annual event in all of sports, the NCAA Hockey Tournament. (1) Michigan kicks off today in the first round against (4) American International (AIC) in the Midwest Regional, for the right to play the winner of Quinnipiac and St. Cloud State on Sunday. Two wins this weekend and Michigan can make it back to the Frozen Four, which is being held in Boston. Today's game will be played in a mostly empty arena in Allentown, Pennsylvania, because that's what the NCAA has decided is a good idea. 

THE US 

Michigan enters this NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed for the first time since 2008, boasting a 29-9-1 record. Michigan's dream roster has mostly paid off as expected. The only hiccups have come against Notre Dame, which cost the Wolverines the regular season crown, but they righted the ship and knocked off the Irish in the B1G Tournament semis, en route to a ring last weekend over Minnesota. Michigan is one of the top offensive and defensive teams in the country, a well-rounded squad with stars at all three levels, from C Matty Beniers to D Luke Hughes to G Erik Portillo. This is as good of a shot to win another national title that Michigan Hockey has had since 1998. 

[James Coller]

THE THEM

The prize for having a great regular season and earning the top overall seed is drawing the Atlantic Hockey Association's automatic qualifier in the first round of the tournament. Atlantic Hockey is the sport's lone true mid-major conference, only putting one team in the tournament each season (the winner of its conference tournament), and on-paper their entrant is by far the weakest team in the field. This year that's the American International Yellow Jackets, who have become the class of Atlantic Hockey in recent years. They've made it to three straight NCAA Tournaments, and were favored to make it four as the regular season champion in the COVID-canceled 2020 season. AIC has been here before, having been blasted by #1 North Dakota last year, but pulling off a stunning upset of #1 St. Cloud State in 2019's first round *gulp*. 

When you look at a team like AIC, you have to evaluate them while taking into account their strength of schedule. At a bird's eye glance, the numbers look great, but they played a schedule that is vastly easier than the one Michigan played. When they did play teams that Michigan played, the numbers are very different. AIC went 1-6-1 against non-Atlantic Hockey teams (counting an exhibition against Boston College) and 21-7-2 against Atlantic Hockey teams. They scored just 12 goals in those eight games and allowed 25. AIC would have been one of the worst teams in the B1G, had they played in the conference. 

Chris Theodore is among the veteran leaders [AIC Athletics]

Michigan and AIC have two common opponents this season, Niagara and UMass. AIC lost 5-1 and 4-2 to UMass, and UMass owned 66.9% of the shot attempts at even strength in those two games. Michigan beat UMass 4-1 and 4-2 and owned 64.3% of the shot attempts at even strength in those two games. The transitive property result of Michigan vs. AIC based on those two sets of results is not pretty for the Yellow Jackets. Similarly, Michigan obliterated Niagara 6-1 and 4-1 and owned ~64% of shot attempts at even strength. Meanwhile AIC tied Niagara 1-1 and beat them 4-3, with shot attempts at even strength being nearly even. Michigan is a vastly better team than American International. But that doesn't mean the Yellow Jackets can't win one game head-to-head. 

AIC is a balanced team, 7th in goals per game at 3.5 and 15th in goals against per game at 2.4. They're a veteran team up front, with their top four forwards being one junior, one senior, and two grad students. Blake Bennett leads the team in scoring, both goals and points, with an 18-14-32 stat line. After two seasons of seldom playing, Bennett has emerged as a star for the Jackets. 

Chris Dodero and Justin Young are NCAA Tournament veterans who have played in prior NCAA Tournaments. Interestingly, AIC opted to scatter its top scorers across the lineup in its most recent game against Air Force, playing Young on a line with Chris Theodore, and then putting Dodero and Bennett on separate lines. Zak Galambos is the top-scoring defenseman at the top of the power play, while Bennett and Jake Stella are the snipers to watch when AIC goes on the man-advantage.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]

SPECIAL TEAMS

The raw special teams stats are very similar between Michigan and AIC. The Wolverines are 25.5% on the PP and 82.9% on the PK, while AIC is 25.7% on the PP and 81.7% on the PK. However, strength of schedule adjustments are definitely needed. American International scored just a lone PPG in their eight games against non-Atlantic Hockey teams (and gave up a shorty to Providence), so I think it's fair to say that Michigan's power play is considerably better. AIC gave up a pair of power play goals against in a game against UMass, but their PK held up better against tougher competition. Still, when the two teams have similar special teams statistically, but one team played a much more difficult schedule, then we can say that team has the edge on both the PK and the PP. That team is Michigan.   

[James Coller]

GOALIE

It's hard to say enough words about how good Erik Portillo has been for Michigan over the second half of the season. Since Christmas Day 2021, he has a .944 SV% and a 1.59 GAA, a calming presence who has given Michigan great goaltending night in and night out. Portillo will be the best Michigan goaltender to play in an NCAA Tournament game since Shawn Hunwick was around.  

The Yellow Jackets will likely be starting Alec Calvaruso in net, who has taken over the crease late in the season. Calvaruso didn't play much in the fall, only playing in one of those aforementioned games against non-Atlantic Hockey competition, but has come on stronger as of late. He has played 15 games and is 10-4 with a 2.38 GAA and a .911 SV%. Solid numbers, but only boasting a .911 against a weak schedule may be a cause for concern against a high-flying offensive team like Michigan. 

[James Coller]

THE KEYS 

Score goals. Atlantic Hockey upsets over the top seed in the tournament (which happens more often than you'd like) are almost always of the 2-1 variety. Given that AIC scored more than two goals against non-Atlantic Hockey competition just once in eight tries, it's likely that that formula remains the same if AIC pulls off the humongous upset over Michigan. The Maize & Blue only lose this game if they fail to put the biscuit in the basket. Putting three in probably ends the game, and if Michigan can score a few early (like NoDak did last year), they can put this game out of reach fast. 

Don't take a five minute major. So far, so good in postseason play, but this remains the major trap for Michigan to fall into given the discipline problems they've had this year. Against a team who's probably going to struggle to score, don't give them a five minute power play! 

Be focused. Michigan is the heavy favorite, but they'll need to match AIC's energy level. Can't be thinking about Sunday or about Boston, because that's the formula for an upset. Don't let the underdog outwork you. Focus on the opponent on the schedule here today. 

PREDICTIONS

Are stupid in a one game hockey game.