The women's Big Ten Tournament is [checks watch] under way today with the 12/13 and 11/14 games, so the order of operations is flipped this week.

Final WBB Regular Season Standings

Maryland and Northwestern shared the conference title, though the Terps were easily the more dominant team—they're a likely one-seed in the NCAA Tournament while the Wildcats are projected as a three-seed on ESPN. The Terps came close to doubling up any other Big Ten team with their +21.3 average scoring margin in conference play.

Michigan finished alone in seventh after beating Illinois and losing to Indiana last week, setting up a Thursday evening conference tournament game against ten-seed Nebraska. A victory in that game would give them a quarterfinal matchup with Northwestern and a better opportunity to play their way above the 8/9 line for the NCAA Tournament. For the moment, the Wolverines project as a nine-seed, though their adjusted net rating on the season (28th nationally, per Her Hoop Stats) suggests they have the quality of a seven-seed. 

The BTT Bracket

click for big

Michigan-Nebraska tips off at 6:30 ET tomorrow on BTN; they'd face Northwestern at the same time Friday if they advance.

[Hit THE JUMP for a breakdown of the WBB tourney competition and an update on the men's side heading into the last few days of the regular season.]

The Competition

I haven't taken a dive into the advanced stats for WBB this season in part because I didn't find the right site until a couple weeks ago. Here are the adjusted ratings and four factors for Big Ten offenses, via Her Hoops Stats:

And the same for the defenses:

Michigan's Big Ten Tournament path will be challenging. Nebraska was the B1G's #8 team by scoring margin but had some bad luck to finish behind Purdue and Michigan State. They're the #55 team by adjusted net rating, easily the best among the bottom half of the conference. The Wolverines are still the favorites as the #28 overall team and the matchup should favor them: they can dominate the Huskers on the boards and NU is the worst team in the conference at forcing turnovers, making them unsuited to exploit M's primary offensive weakness.

In the teams's only matchup this season, Nebraska won 74-71 in Lincoln while holding Naz Hillmon to one of her worst performances of the season (15 points on 20 shooting possessions, six rebounds, three turnovers). There were extenuating circumstances, however: senior starter Kayla Robbins tore her ACL in the game's opening minute. Michigan had trouble with Nebraska's perimeter-based attack and couldn't convert their interior looks on the other end.

The top scoring threat for the Huskers is 6'1" forward Leigha Brown, who averaged 13.8 points in Big Ten games this season and has some stretch to her game. 6'5" center Kate Cain is a solid finisher and rebounder. Michigan can't afford to lose sight of senior guard Hannah Whitish, who shot 41% on three-pointers in conference play and poured in 20 points while hitting 6/8 from beyond the arc in the first matchup. They should be better at that this time around since they shouldn't be dealing with the sudden loss of a starter just after tipoff.

a healthy Naz Hillmon would help a great deal in a hypothetical Northwestern matchup [Scott]

While Northwestern, led by 20 PPG scorer Lindsey Pulliam, went 2-0 against Michigan this season, the Wolverines played them close and could've easily gone 1-1 or even swept those games. In Evanston, Hillmon was dominant but Michigan shot an uncharacteristically poor 4/15 on three-pointers and Pulliam's 32 points led NW to a 81-73 win. The Wolverines then took a five-point lead into halftime in the rematch at Crisler, only for that to slip away as Hillmon spent most of the game on the bench after injuring her shoulder in the first half. While M held Pulliam to four points, Amy Dilk had a rough game and the offense ground to a halt without Hillmon; NW eked by, 66-60.

That matchup looks decent on paper, too. Northwestern isn't particularly strong on the boards, an area Michigan excels, and they play at the same tempo the Wolverines prefer. If Michigan can avoid turnovers, a big if this season, then they've got a solid shot at the upset should they make it this far.

If they advance deeper into the tourney, Michigan may actually prefer facing Iowa to Ohio State despite the Hawkeyes being the superior overall team. That again comes down to M's projected advantage on the boards. Also, the Wolverines beat Iowa at Crisler this season and lost at OSU; there were no second matchups with either team. Should they be fortunate enough to get to the title game, hope for anyone but Maryland, but don't expect it. The Terps blew out Michigan in both of their games this season.

Current Men's Standings (updated through March 3rd's games)

if MSU is gonna be in first I'm at least gonna run this picture [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

*has not been updated for last night's games as of posting time; expect Maryland to slide and Rutgers to move up

It's been a wild week-plus for MBB and the conference nearly went totally off the rails last night. Rutgers held home court against Maryland, sending the Terps to their third loss in four games and officially making Michigan the only road team to win at the RAC this season. Penn State raced out to a big early lead on Michigan State only to collapse in the second half when their three-pointers stopped falling; MSU charged back to win 79-71 and avoid complete conference chaos. In the late game, Purdue upset Iowa on the road, which might be enough to get them back into the projected tourney field.

Now the Spartans are tied with Maryland atop the Big Ten standings and they have a much better scoring margin and overall statistical profile. Here, thanks to Bart Torvik, are the current title and top four odds for the remaining contenders:

There's a very good chance at a shared title and a 50/50 shot that somehow includes Wisconsin, winners of six in a row with Northwestern and @Indiana left on the schedule. Please don't ask me to figure out the tiebreakers for all the potential top four scenarios; let's choose to enjoy watching this mystery unfold together.

Notable Games This Week

Tonight: Minnesota at Indiana (7 pm ET, BTN)
Thursday: Nebraska at Michigan (6:30, FS1), Illinois at Ohio State (7, ESPN)
Saturday: Wisconsin at Indiana (noon, ESPN), Rutgers at Purdue (2, BTN)
Sunday: Michigan at Maryland (noon, FOX), Ohio State at Michigan State (4:30, CBS), Iowa at Illinois (7, BTN)

That'll be it for the regular season. Ohio State (Illinois, @MSU) and Rutgers (@Purdue) both have tough enough closing games for Michigan to have a decent chance to move up their conference tournament seed. The Wolverines would hold the tiebreaker over Rutgers thanks to their two head-to-head wins; for the same reason, Michigan would need to finish a game ahead of OSU to pass them in BTT seeding.