Alright, I've got some catching up to do. Notable scores from last two weeks (home team listed second):

• PSU 79, OSU 83
• Wisconsin 61, Maryland 55
• MSU 37, Rutgers 67
• Iowa 75, Illinois 80
• Wisconsin 71, PSU 81
• Minnesota 62, Purdue 81
• MSU 62, OSU 79
• MSU 78, Iowa 84
• Illinois 75, Indiana 71 (OT)
• PSU 56, Wisconsin 62
• Purdue 60, Maryland 61
• OSU 89, Iowa 85
• Wisconsin 60, Illinois 76
• Northwestern 70, Purdue 75
• Iowa 65, Indiana 67

After losing to Indiana yesterday, Iowa has dropped four of their last five games, and even the win in that span wasn't exactly impressive—they allowed 78 points on 65 possessions (1.20 PPP) to a Michigan State team that's scoring 0.94 PPP in Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes now rank fifth on KenPom and sixth in the Big Ten. It's a good conference and a weird year.

The Standings

	Record			NET				KP/Torvik Avg			OFFENSE			DEFENSE
Team	OVR	B1G		RK	Q1	Q2		Nat Rk (chg)	Proj. B1G Rec.*		KP	BT		KP	BT
U-M	13-1	8-1		3rd	4-1	3-0		3.0 (--)	14-4		7th	7th		8th	11th
ILL	13-5	9-3		4th	7-4	3-1		4.5 (up 4.5)	13.5-5.5		6th	10th		14th	14th
OSU	15-4	9-4		7th	8-3	0-1		7.5 (up 5.5)	13-7		4th	4th		71st	66th
WIS	14-6	8-5		16th	4-4	4-2		11.0 (down 2)	12-8		27th	24th		9th	10th
PUR	13-7	8-5		23rd	4-6	5-0		23.5 (up 8)	12-7.5		33rd	38th		26th	32nd
IOWA	13-6	7-5		9th	3-5	3-1		6.5 (down 2)	11.5-8		1st	1st		121st	134th
RUT	11-6	7-6		25th	4-5	3-1		23.5 (up 16.5)	11-9		51st	46th		17th	19th
IND	10-8	5-6		48th	3-7	3-0		27.0 (down 1)	8.5-10.5		49th	52nd		22nd	27th
PSU	7-8	4-7		28th	3-7	2-1		28.5 (up 12)	8.5-10.5		23rd	19th		59th	61st
MIN	11-7	4-7		55th	3-6	1-1		38.0 (down 7.5)	8.5-10.5		38th	35th		51st	49th
UMD	10-9	4-8		39th	4-9	0-0		47.0 (down 1.5)	8-11.5		53rd	59th		40th	57th
MSU	9-7	3-7		91st	2-6	1-1		66.0 (down 18)	5.5-13		79th	103rd		38th	35th
NW	6-10	3-9		85th	2-9	0-1		71.5 (down 8)	6-13.5		76th	67th		72nd	74th
NEB	4-9	0-6		163rd	0-4	0-3		116.0 (down 7.5)	2-15		154th	159th		102nd	73rd

*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.

Iowa's recent plunge has been part of a general shakeup among the teams chasing Michigan for the conference title. Illinois, Ohio State, and Purdue have moved up the board; Wisconsin has joined the Hawkeyes in going through a February rough patch.

There's also been some movement lower in the standings. Rutgers has won four in a row after a five-game losing streak and find themselves back in the top 25 in both the NET and KenPom/Torvik rankings. Penn State hasn't turned all of their competitive games against high-level competition into wins but their outlook is a lot sunnier since they restarted from their own COVID-related pause. Michigan State is a disaster. Let's dig into some details.

[Hit THE JUMP to see who's rising and falling in the conference over the last couple weeks.]

Stock Rising

Kofi Cockburn and Illinois could block M's path to an outright title [Campredon]

Illinois. The Illini have won four in a row, capped by Saturday's blowout of Wisconsin in which Ayo Donsumnu went for a triple-double and Kofi Cockburn scored 23 on 16 shooting possessions. Both stars now rank in the top ten of the KenPom Player of the Year rankings; Dosunmu is all the way up to third because of his efficient three-level scoring and overall stat-sheet-stuffing with huge usage, while Cockburn has been a dominant finisher when the Illini are able to get him the ball down low.

Illinois may lean heavily on those two stars but the have the critical skill of availability: despite being a seven-footer, Cockburn plays nearly 3/4 of the team's minutes in Big Ten games while committing only 2.8 fouls per 40 minutes, while Donsumnu is fourth in the conference in percentage of minutes played with an identical foul rate as Cockburn. The last time Cockburn picked up so much as a fourth foul in a game was December 12th at Mizzou and he still played 31 minutes; the only time this year he's been seriously limited by foul trouble came against Baylor, one of the best regular season teams in recent college basketball memory.

That makes their success replicable. They're the only real threat to Michigan's title chances barring some schedule weirdness; Torvik projects them with a 24.7% chance at a share and 11.2% chance at an outright conference championship. (Michigan is at 82.0% and 65.3%, respectively, but Torvik's numbers also assume that each team will play every game that was on its original schedule.)

Ohio State. The other team Torvik gives an outside title chance (11.4% share, 3.7% sole) has taken seven of their last eight games with some of the most impressive victories recorded by any team in the conference this season: by six at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, and an 89-85 barnburner at Iowa. 

We discussed this on today's podcast: Chris Holtmann's squad has the nation's #4 offense despite lacking an elite offensive talent, size up front, and quite often a traditional point guard, and they pull it off by being elite around the margins. They have the nation's 11th-lowest turnover rate, draw fouls at the 19th-best clip, and make 76.3% of their free throws. By maximizing their possessions and generating a lot of easy points, they elevate being merely solid at finishing, jump shooting, and offensive rebounding into an elite offense.

That same principle seems to apply to their roster construction. EJ Liddell and Duane Washington aren't traditional leading stars but they're bolstered by a rotation full of useful, relatively efficient players that fall into clear roles. Justice Sueing is a slashing point forward, Kyle Young is a high-energy offensive rebounder with some stretch in his game, Justin Ahrens cannot be left alone for a moment beyond the arc, CJ Walker is a steadying force at the point even while a hand injury wrecks his shot, and so on. There isn't a player you can leave alone, which opens up the floor and makes it harder for the defense to contain drives.

Now, the defense? That's where you can see the roster deficiencies. The Buckeyes are struggling to defend the rim in Big Ten games and they force even fewer turnovers than Michigan, putting them last in the conference. The Wolverines make up for that with dominant defense inside the paint; OSU is nowhere near that level right now. At this point, they profile as a less extreme version of Iowa—what's wild is they may be just as good as the Hawkeyes and possibly better. I know which team I'd take to win one game for me right now.

Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights looked destined for the basement with five losses in a row, then pulled out of that skid with four straight wins. Sure, competition quality and catching MSU after their COVID pause helped, but Steve Pikiell is also getting his pieces assembled at the right time. Geo Baker, who struggled to shake off an early-season injury, scored in double figures in each of the four recent victories after doing so just once in the preceding losing streak. Caleb McConnell's return to 100% from his own injury has allowed Pikiell to use Jacob Young as a sparkplug off the bench.

There's room for this team to get more dangerous, too. Ron Harper Jr. hasn't regained his form from a midseason ankle injury, especially the touch on his outside shot, and he's one of the best players in the conference when the threes are falling. Freshman big man Cliff Omoruyi, who looked excellent early in the season, has been inconsistent after—guess what—missing time to injury for most of the first half of Big Ten play. A full strength Rutgers is going to be a pain in the ass.

Stock Falling

Brad Davison's struggling? what a shame [Campredon]

Iowa. They still have the #1 offense in the country; they also have the #121 (KenPom) or #134 (Torvik) defense, depending on where you look. The Hawkeyes have the feel of a team that's going to bomb out early in the tournament. Lo and behold:

? https://t.co/ASGhIAvzAB pic.twitter.com/euqiwnYK8v

— Bart T?rvik (@totally_t_bomb) February 5, 2021

Bart posted that before yesterday's listless loss at Indiana, though the Hoosier defeat at least had a different flavor than most. Whereas Iowa's defense got lit up in the previous four games, they managed to hold IU below a point per possession, the first time they'd done so since January 10th. The Hawkeyes raced out to a 17-4 lead and appeared to be in control. Then Luka Garza picked up his second foul with 12 minutes left in the half, hit the bench, and Fran McCaffrey left him there even while the Hoosiers went on a late charge to take a two-point lead into halftime.

Garza finished with 18 points in 27 minutes and couldn't really get into the flow of the game. He didn't commit another foul. Iowa lost by two points while posting their worst offensive PPP of the season. Does McCaffrey have any regrets? How dare you.

Fran McCaffery calls @MarkEmmert question asking why he left Garza out for 12:30 in the first half "a ridiculous question."
Adds "you guys are unbelievable" because of questions related to not playing the starters late in the first half when Indiana put together a 9-0 run.

— Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) February 7, 2021

This is fine.

The only thing keeping me from predicting a full-blown February Fran collapse is the fact CJ Fredrick has sat out three of the last four games with a "lower leg" injury. Iowa needs their offense to be the best in the country to make up for their defense. When Fredrick is out there, it's been at that level, and there's a major dropoff when he hasn't been on the floor (via Hoop Lens, cupcakes removed):

The numbers get even more dramatic when you pair Fredrick with Jordan Bohannon. Iowa has some interesting rotation players in Keegan Murray and Joe Toussaint but because those two are better on defense than offense they don't necessarily bring what the Hawkeyes really need, which is enough firepower that the team's myriad defensive problems don't overwhelm them.

Wisconsin. As Heat Check CBB's Brian Rauf notes, the Badgers have fallen off a cliff on offense when they play high-caliber teams.

Wisconsin’s overall resume isn’t all that strong. They’re only 8-6 in Quad 1 & 2 games, showing its lack of consistency against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams. The Badgers’ inability to keep with good teams offensively has played a major role. Here’s a look at their offensive production based on varying levels of competition:

Those dips in points scored and shooting percentage are significant and aren’t all that different from what we saw from this group last year. Because Wisconsin doesn’t have players who can consistently attack the basket with success, most of its offense has to come from jumpers. When the Badgers shoot over 40 percent from deep, they win. When they don’t, they aren’t as successful.

D'Mitrik Trice is the only player who's been able to continue being a big threat in his role when the competition steps up. Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers both haven't hit enough threes to stretch defenses. Brad Davison has been horrific in conference play, going 6/31 on twos and 16/53 on threes with an assist rate below ten; he's not driving any play except his own misses. Everyone else is a spot-up shooter or low-usage hustle guy. It's not holding up well.

Michigan State. We've reached the point where even a ten-point win over Nebraska results in lingering questions. In this case, The Athletic's Brendan Quinn is openly wondering about Rocket Watts' future after the talented, slumping guard put up another clunker and played only three minutes after halftime:

Watts asked Izzo early in the season to move back to the two. Izzo granted that wish. He didn’t have to, but he chose to. Except, when the time came to really do it, the staff continued to yo-yo Watts between positions.

“Every time I think I’ll just play him at the two, then we struggle to guard certain things at the one, and I move him back and forth,” Izzo said. “I don’t think it’s been fair to him, but it’s what you gotta do.”

But that clearly hasn’t worked.

Watts is in this oddly dissociated role. He’s not the point guard. He’s not the primary off-guard. What is he?

At the moment, he's not very good, and he's losing minutes to the likes of Foster Loyer and AJ Hoggard. With Gabe Brown returning from COVID for his first action since Jan. 8th, Tom Izzo gave double-digit minutes to ten(!!!) players against the Huskers and kept two more players (Mady Cissoko at 8 and Thomas Kithier at 7 minutes) on the fringe of the rotation.

It's anyone's guess who'll be out there at any given moment for MSU, including Izzo's, it seems. That has to be a difficult environment to play in and we're seeing the results on the court; we may see more consequences of the packed rotation in the offseason.

Northwestern. Brian hit the nail on the head with his hypothesis that Michigan had put out "The Book" on Northwestern's five-out offense.

The Wildcats now exist to put the occasional scare into a decent team that drives their own fans as crazy as the opponent's because nobody likes Chris Collins.

New Tiers

From two weeks ago:

Tier I: Michigan, Iowa
Tier II: Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State
Tier III: Purdue, Minnesota
Tier IV: Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland
Tier V: Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(

Let's take another shot.

Tier I: Michigan, Illinois
Tier II: Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin
Tier III: Purdue, Rutgers
Tier IV: Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, Maryland
Tier V: Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(

If Michigan weren't coming off an extended layoff, I'd probably have them in a tier of their own, but I'd like to see how they shake off the rust before making that move.

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern.

Tonight: Nebraska at Minnesota (8, BTN), OSU at Maryland (9, FS1)
Tuesday: PSU at MSU (7, ESPN2)
Wednesday: Rutgers at Iowa (7, BTN), Indiana at Northwestern (9, BTN)
Thursday: Wisconsin at Nebraska (5, ESPN2), Purdue at Minnesota (8, BTN)
Saturday: Indiana at Ohio State (noon, ESPN), Iowa at MSU (2:30, FOX), Northwestern at Rutgers (TBD, BTN)
Sunday: Michigan at Wisconsin (1, CBS), Nebraska at PSU (3, BTN), Minnesota at Maryland (7, BTN)