As promised, three weeks have passed since I last chronicled the happenings of the Michigan Softball and Baseball teams, so it's time to check back in. Softball was playing in the BTT when I started writing this, so I'm going to leave that one until early next week once we know the final result of Selection Sunday (likely not gonna be good!), but it feels like a good time to check back in on baseball. Nine more games have gone by and the regular season is nearing its conclusion. Once again we'll do a quick recap, check in on the B1G chase, recap the goings on with the team, and then preview the upcoming slate: 

 

Baseball: Jostling for B1G Positioning

The last time I wrote about Michigan Baseball we were getting ready for a massive home series against Michigan State that represented the last truly difficult B1G series on the schedule. At that time, the team was sifting through choppy results in conference play and were firmly in the "must win the B1G Tournament to make the NCAAs" territory, so our focus was on seeding (and qualifying) for the BTT in Omaha. That remains true in this edition. 

Season Results Since We Last Talked: That pivotal home series against MSU went pretty well! Michigan got out to a quick 5-2 lead in the Friday game and let strong pitching from Noah Rennard carry them, Mitch Voit working a clean and efficient ninth inning to nail it down. With the ace Connor O'Halloran going on Saturday, Michigan was situated in good position to get a series win at that point and that's what they got on Saturday. O'Halloran threw a complete game, striking out five and allowing three runs on 115 pitches. The Michigan offense gave him a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first on RBI knocks from Joey Velazquez and Jack Van Remortel and those were all the runs he'd need en route to a 7-3 victory. Michigan's pitching depth again proved problematic in another Sunday defeat, but taking 2/3 from MSU was satisfactory. 

That led Michigan into their bye week in the B1G, meaning it was time for a non-con tussle with Oklahoma State. That series meant nothing with the Wolverines far outside NCAA consideration as an at-large team, instead mostly serving to give this Michigan team some experience. They only ended up playing two games due to weather, with the Cowboys sweeping the Wolverines (not terribly surprising). O'Halloran pitched a decent game in the opener of the series, but two runs allowed in the 7th handed the Pokes a 5-3 victory. The second game was much messier, OKST using a 5 run fifth to take a commanding lead and eventually hanging on to win 8-5. Tough sledding for Tracy Smith's crew, but again not terribly meaningful in the long run. 

The mid-week game against Kent State wrapped up a seven game home-stand, Michigan able to use more of their A-List arms for that one due to the shortened series against OKST. Michigan won it 7-5 on the back of homers from both Mitch Voit and Tito Flores, as well as an RBI double from Jonathan Kim. After that the Wolverines were off to Minneapolis, a three-game set that ended up being quite low-scoring. Michigan's pitching showed up, nine runs allowed in the three games. Unfortunately, they only scored six runs in three games, including being shut out in the Friday game. The Maize & Blue held a 2-0 lead headed into the bottom of the 8th on Saturday when starter Noah Rennard began to unravel and Voit was unable to salvage it. Thankfully, the brilliance of Jacob Denner on Sunday (complete game, one run allowed!) and a first inning three-run HR from Velazquez powered Michigan to a win in Game #3 that denied the Gophers the sweep. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: B1G standings, notable performances, previews]

[Paul Sherman]

What does it mean?: Michigan now sits 23-22 on the season, narrowly above .500. In the B1G it's a similar story, 10-8 on the year. As we noted, the Wolverines aren't making the NCAAs as an at-large, so it's all about being in the top eight in the B1G, allowing you to make it to the BTT, where winning the event is required for entrance to the big dance. Right now things look decent for Michigan on that front. Standings: 

Team	Record	GB
Maryland	13-5	--
Indiana	12-6	1
Rutgers	11-7	2
Iowa	10-7	2.5
MSU	10-8	3
Nebraska	10-8	3
Michigan	10-8	3
Purdue	10-8	3
Illinois	11-10	3.5
Minnesota	7-11	6
PSU	6-11	6.5
OSU	6-15	8.5
Northwestern	3-15	10

The top eight make the BTT, so the cut line is after the four-way tie for 10-8, which Michigan is apart of. Only Illinois sitting at 11-10 is a realistic team that could pass anyone in that 10-8 pile-up, so from that standpoint, the Wolverines are in good shape. Also, Michigan took the season series from Illinois, which is the BTT seeding tiebreaker, so that's a nice boost. Adding to the good news for Michigan is their remaining schedule: the final six games are a home series against 3-15 Northwestern and a road series against 6-15 Ohio State. The easiest remaining strength of schedule is a huge opportunity for the Wolverines to bank wins and make the BTT comfortably, without too much scoreboard watching.

An easy strength of schedule could also give Michigan a chance to catapult into the top four of the standings and get better seeding in Omaha. There are no byes, so ultimately it doesn't matter too much, but obviously you'd prefer to not have to face Maryland right away. Compared to other teams they're jostling against, Michigan has the easiest strength of the schedule, followed by Nebraska (who close with PSU and Purdue) and Iowa, who close with MSU and Northwestern. On the flip side, Illinois' final series is against Rutgers, while Minnesota closes with Maryland and Rutgers. Unless the Wolverines faceplant against the two worst teams in the conference, they should be comfortably into Omaha. Of course, a 5-1 or 6-0 close could mount a decent surge for the top of the standings, though it's awfully hard to make up three games with only six to play. 

[Michigan Baseball]

Who's hot, who's not?: For the first time all season, ace Connor O'Halloran is in the "not" column. He hasn't been bad recently, but O'Halloran's nearly unhittable stretch appears to be over. He's allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts, which is acceptable given how deep into games he goes, but it's pushed his ERA up over 3.00, when it was sitting in the 2 range for previous installments. They've also lost his last two starts, which is completely different from a time when an O'Halloran start was nearly an automatic victory. Some of this was probably natural mean reversion, but it's something to monitor as we head into the stretch run. His next start could tie his career high in IP with Michigan, though his pitches are still a cut below last year. 

While O'Halloran has gone from "unbelievable" to "good", Jacob Denner stepped up against Minnesota with the aforementioned unbelievable start. That complete game showing was an outlier, but he's allowed just two earned runs in total over his past four appearances spanning 12.1 innings. I'd expect Denner will be a key arm that Tracy Smith will lean on over the final couple weekends and in the BTT. On the flip side, Chase Allen is emphatically in the "not" category here. I wrote last time around about how Allen was becoming a wildly erratic hot-and-cold arm... these days Allen is deep freeze cold. After two decent outings in mid-April against Illinois and Nebraska, Allen has thrown 9.2 innings and allowed 19 earned runs(!!!). He's walking nearly a batter per inning and opponents are teeing off on him at the plate. Not good enough and a big reason he's been moved into relief. Allen didn't see the bump against the Gophers, so perhaps he is being reset and hopefully can find his game again in time for Omaha. 

With Allen on the schneid, Noah Rennard has become an increasingly important piece of the team. He started on Saturday in Minnesota in Allen's usual place and was very good overall. Michigan needs to see more of that and his flexibility as a starter or reliever who can be used in every situation is a big boon. Mitch Voit remains the late inning arm, even with the blown save against the Gophers. With a 3.67 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, he's a solid back-inning option and while you'd like to see the strikeouts be higher, you take what you can get on this team with questionable pitching depth (to say the least).

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

O'Halloran, Rennard, Denner, and Voit are the big four, with Allen tossed in if he can re-find his game. Beyond that it's a bit of pitcher by committee and Michigan will need at least a few timely performances from the next names to make a run for the conference title in Omaha. These names include guys like Kurt Barr, Ahmad Harajili, Ryan Zimmer, Brandon Mann, and John Toroella. The overall season numbers for a lot of these guys are ugly, but Harajili, Mann, and Toroella all have clean innings in their last few appearances so perhaps that gives them something to build on. Establishing consistency and a pecking order of guys to trust when the postseason rolls around is something to follow in the final two weekends of the regular season. 

On the offensive side of things, the warmer weather has continued to bring more HRs for the offense (up to nearly one per game), but the strong pitching by OKST and Minnesota in recent weeks has resulted in an overall decrease in offensive metrics by the Michigan hitters. The biggest development has been the return of Jimmy Obertop, which was happening just as I published our last piece. Obertop's return was a boon for the lineup on paper, given his hitting prowess established over time, but as was probably predictable, Obertop wasn't ready to be right back to mid-season form after missing the entire season to that point. Obertop is only 6/29 right now with 10 Ks, but the hope is with more reps he can find his stroke soon. 

With Obertop not yet being a proper shot in the arm, it's been the same characters leading the offense. Freshmen Jonathan Kim and Voit have seen their offensive numbers tick down a tad but are still two of the better hitters on the team and reasons for long term optimism. Jack Van Remortel is also still holding onto his title as a key hitter in the order, while established veteran Tito Flores *finally* has a pulse. He was hitting just .196 when I last wrote about the team but has now upped his average to .238, the OPS over .700, and 5 HRs in total. Over the past three weeks, Flores is 12/31 at the plate, two walks to only one strikeout, a rampage that is starting to have Flores look more like the guy he was in 2021 and 2022. It's a welcome sign as some of the other bats have been held in check in recent weeks. 

 Gotta beat these dudes up [Caden Greco/Northwestern Athletics]

What to expect moving forward: The final home series of the year is this weekend, a three game set with Northwestern that should be Michigan's second sweep of the B1G slate. Northwestern, as the standings show, is awful. They are not just 3-15 in conference play, they're 8-34 overall. They started the season 0-12 and have wins over just two B1G teams, Purdue and Illinois. They took 2 of 3 from the Fighting Illini, which goes to show you that Michigan can't just mail it in. That said, there is no excuse not to beat the pulp out of this team. Northwestern's other wins are over Butler, NIU (x2), Milwaukee, and UIC. Those teams are 232, 275, 259, and 149 in RPI.

The Cats' pitching stats are truly something to behold, a team ERA of 8.62(!!!) and a WHIP of 1.80(!!!). The ERAs of the starters Northwestern used last weekend vs. Indiana are 8.55, 6.28, and 11.43. They have one arm with an ERA below 5.00. This team cannot pitch at all. The offense isn't horrible, .730 team OPS that is in the same ballpark as Michigan's, but the pitching is so bad that the pathway to a sweep is for the Michigan bats to run hotter than the surface of the sun this weekend.  

After that there's a mid-week game against Xavier which will be the final game of the season at Ray Fisher Stadium, followed by the trek down to Columbus to close the regular season. Ohio State is bad in the B1G at 6-15, but the full complexion of their team is better than that. They have a -6 run differential on the season and a 23-25 overall record, which isn't terribly different than Michigan's record or run differential. Ohio State's offensive numbers are better than the Wolverines', though Michigan's pitching is better. It won't be an easy series, but I still like Michigan's ability to carve out 2/3. At the very least get one, which hopefully should be put next to a Northwestern sweep. At which point I'll be back in a couple weeks to talk about Omaha and the BTT.