Yesterday we did an update to the latest happening in Michigan Softball's 2023 season. Today we will be doing the same for Michigan Baseball.

Baseball: Navigating the choppy seas

Last time we talked, Michigan Baseball was coming off their first B1G series of the season, having swept PSU at home to get some momentum behind them after a bumpy close to the non-conference schedule. We noted that they had a couple big arms but pitching depth and the offense overall needed to improve moving forward for the team to do lots of damage in the B1G. Half of that sentence did come true, while half is still a struggle. 

The season results since last time: Michigan has played three standard B1G weekend series since the last installment, two of which on the road and one at home. The first was also very promising, a series victory down in Champaign, ILL, with a win over the Illini. Michigan claimed the Friday game with a big time performance at the plate from Jonathan Kim, who went 5/5(!) with 4 RBI and a run scored. The Wolverines scored early and often to build up to 12-2 lead behind a strong start from ace Connor O'Halloran. The bullpen did its best to try and let Illinois back into it, but ultimately sealed a 12-9 win. The Saturday game saw Michigan get a strong start from Chase Allen and more heroics at the plate from Kim, the go-ahead single in the 8th before a grand slam by Mitch Voit in the ninth put the game away. Having used all their quality arms to get the first two wins, Michigan started Walker Cleveland on Sunday which more or less amounts to waving the white flag, and the squad got crushed in the final game.

Still, it was a strong weekend and they followed it up with a 12-5 win over WMU in the midweek MACtion game. Nebraska came to town over Easter Weekend, the Friday game being a pitching duel for the ages between O'Halloran and Nebraska's Emmett Olson. Michigan tied the game in the 8th on a HR by Jonathan Kim to make it 1-1, but Michigan couldn't get it done in regulation despite nine innings of one-run ball from O'Halloran. Noah Rennard allowed two in the tenth and that would be enough for the Huskers to win it. The Wolverines responded by scoring six runs in the first two innings on Saturday to secure an 8-6 win, but the rubber match on Sunday went to the visitors as Jacob Denner was bludgeoned for six earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched and the Wolverine bats were held pretty quiet. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Butler came to town for the mid-week game after that, an easy 13-2 Michigan win, and then Tracy Smith's squad headed back out on the road to Piscataway and a matchup with Rutgers. The weekend would deal with major weather issues and big time pitching woes. O'Halloran allowed four runs before he'd recorded an out on Friday, the first time all year he'd been lit up, so Smith opted to yank O'Halloran after just one inning, so the lefty could be saved for a later game in the series. In the process, he punted the game and Michigan lost 13-0, but now they had some ammo later on. The unusual strategy worked, as O'Halloran came in to game two of the series after Chase Allen had been beaten up early on. After being entered into the game, O'Halloran slammed the door on Rutgers, allowing one run over six innings, giving Michigan's offense time to claw out of a 6-0 hole, something they did on their way to a 13-8 victory. Ted Burton hit a three run homer and Joe Longo hit a two run blast before late offense from Jack Van Remortel got the game to the finish line. 

The final game of the series was Michigan's second straight loss in a rubber match, played Sunday evening as game two was suspended and resumed on Sunday afternoon. The Wolverines had favorable arms available, but little offense early and a bad fourth inning for Noah Rennard did them in. Tracy Smith was tossed along the way for arguing a close play and that was all she wrote for Michigan's weekend. They returned home on Wednesday for a mid-week game against Toledo and lost an ugly one 10-7 to a sub-.500 MAC opponent. To make matters worse, they held a 6-1 lead early in the game, before pitching issues and poor defense unraveled the game. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: what it means, individual performances, and MSU]

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

What does it mean?: Mostly the same from last time around. I poured cold water on Michigan's NCAA chances last time I wrote, but after their series win over Illinois, a door did start to creak open (one bracketology projection had the team on the bubble out). However, going 2-4 in the B1G since then and dropping a game to Toledo has sunk Michigan's RPI down to 93. With a record of 19-17, this is an autobid or bust team, which is fine. Expectations were not terribly high given the coaching turnover and the roster right now. 

More pertinent is the B1G chase, as only the top eight teams get invited to Omaha for the B1G Tournament. The standings are a bit muddled because teams have played a very different number of games, but here it goes based on winning percentage: Nebraska leads the conference at 7-2 (.778), Indiana follows at 9-3 (.750), MSU and Maryland are tied at 6-3 (.667), and Michigan and Purdue are tied at 7-5 (.583). After that there's a three way tie for 7th-9th, Iowa, Rutgers, and Minnesota all at 4-5. For now, Michigan is in a fine position to make the BTT, but they need to re-find their groove in conference play and win a couple series. Luckily, their remaining schedule in conference play doesn't skew too difficult, although the toughest test is up next. 

[Paul Sherman]

Who's hot and who's not?: O'Halloran remains The Guy for Michigan's pitching staff and their whole team. Save for his tough start against Rutgers (which he redeemed two days later), the lanky Canadian has given Michigan a chance to win every single time he's taken the mound this season and that's a great asset to have. His transformation into a monster this year has been a major win for Smith and his new coaching staff as well. The team is still looking for consistency after O'Halloran in the rotation, Chase Allen really running hot and cold. He's had solid starts in B1G play against PSU and Illinois but also some real rough ones too. For now he's alright, but in a perfect world you'd like someone quite a bit better going on Saturdays. Allen's walk rate is too high and opponents are hitting .316 off him. 

Jacob Denner and Noah Rennard have both started some and come out of the bullpen some, Denner more so as a starter and Rennard more so as a reliever. They have both had their moments, good and bad, but neither are lockdown. Denner in particular leads the team with 10 HRs allowed, not particularly great. Mitch Voit remains a huge asset at the back end of the pen and Kurt Barr has carved out a role as an acceptable mid-week arm, limiting contact but also walking a boatload of hitters. The same could be said for Ryan Zimmer, who is limiting opponents to just .054 batting average off of him. The problem? 9 walks in 8.1 innings! That's the nature of this Michigan staff, it's very much patchwork and everyone besides O'Halloran and maybe Voit has major flaws. All the pitchers I haven't named are outright terrible and that's where the roster is at. Smith has improved the pitching compared to last year, but it is only step one in a multi-year rebuild of the arms considering the Wolverines still rank 156th in team ERA nationally. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

On a happier note, the offense has started to pick up its game from last time I wrote about the team. Last time I noted that the team was scoring 5.5 runs per game and only averaging 0.75 homers per game. The warmer weather has warmed the bats up, as they are now scoring close to 6 runs per game and up to 0.89 homers per game, still not an elite power team but starting to get more contributions from around the lineup. Jonathan Kim is the story of the last three weeks, his average now up to .386 and the OPS clearing 1.000. It took him a bit of time to make the lineup in an everyday capacity, but the Wisconite freshman outfielder is beginning to look like one of the core pieces of the roster for the Tracy Smith era, winning B1G Freshman of the Week, in early April, the third Wolverine to do so this season. 

The rest of the lineup is a decent mix of older contributors and younger ones. Grad student Jack Van Remortel is second on the team in OPS while senior Ted Burton leads the squad in homers with 6. Mitch Voit, who also won Freshman of the Week earlier in the season, has been a decent bat (.766 OPS) at third base in addition to his late-inning relief pitching duties. Tito Flores continues to greatly struggle, his batting average below the Mendoza Line right now, while Michigan is still without Jimmy Obertop due to injury. I have not heard an official timeline for Obertop's return at the moment (EDIT: Obertop is in the lineup today, making his return). Quite frankly, if you'd told me before the season that Flores would be a complete nonfactor through mid-April and Obertop would not have appeared in a game, I'd have said some very grim things about the team's offense. That they are managing to hang in there and grind out wins speaks to a nice young core of players on the team who are stepping up, as well as some surprising senior breakouts (Van Remortel notably). 

Included in that group of young players is Joe Longo, a sophomore who did not appear in game action in 2022. He was the top hitter last time I wrote about the baseball team and he's still one of the better ones, an .863 OPS that ranks third. Of the current lineup of nine players, here is their eligibility status: FR, GRAD, SO, SR, FR, SR, GRAD, JR, SR. All the seniors are eligible for COVID-shirts, should they want to use them, so Michigan has the potential to roll over quite a bit of production to next year if the stars align, which is nice to see. It's not the hyper prolific offense of last year with Clark Elliott in the pros and with Obertop injured, but the offense is improving and starting to support the pitching staff a bit better. 

 Coming up shortly [Brad Carlson]

What to expect moving forward: Starting in about 30 minutes time, Michigan hosts MSU in a rivalry matchup that also represents the most difficult B1G series left on the schedule for the Wolverines. It's at Ray Fisher Stadium, so a big opportunity to defend home turf for Michigan. These two teams have actually seen each other already this season, playing back in the first weekend of the season in a "non-conference" clash in Mesa, Arizona. Michigan got out to a 5-1 lead in that one, which they held until the mid-innings when disastrous performances from Avery Goldensoph and Jake Keaser let things get out of hand. I'd be stunned if we see either of those two pitchers in this series unless the game happens to be comically out of hand. 

MSU is a good B1G team, 6-3 in conference play and far higher in RPI than Michigan is. It won't be easy and the Wolverines need at least one game to stay on track to make the BTT, but obviously winning the series is the goal. There's a weird break at the end of April when a strong Oklahoma State team comes to town in the non-conference, the Pokes ranking 30th in RPI nationally. Given that Michigan isn't making the NCAAs as an at-large, that series doesn't mean much beyond giving the team more experience before the stretch run of the B1G season. They then head to Minnesota for a three game set with the Gophers, who are 4-5 in the B1G and just below Michigan in the standings. That's also a huge series. The end of Michigan's schedule (I'll do another update after Minnesota) is easier, but these next two B1G weekends, MSU and MINN, are pivotal.