Previously: Defensemen

Yesterday we kicked off our 2023-24 Michigan Hockey season preview, beginning with the defensemen (there are a lot of them). Today we move into incoming forwards, which there are fewer of than there have been the last few years, as well as goaltenders. Seven of the eight names in this piece are newcomers to the program, so let's give them a big welcome in today's Part 2: 

 

Incoming Forwards

Nick Moldenhauer 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 5'10"/170

NHL Draft Position: 95th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Toronto 

Stats: 30-45-75 in 50 games last season for the Chicago Steel (USHL) 

Michigan's most touted member of a comparatively disappointing recruiting class is Nick Moldenhauer, a player I am a pretty big fan of. Moldenhauer had borderline first round talent in his draft year but tumbled down the draft board due to a poor draft-eligible season, one that saw Moldenhauer contract a terrible illness and suffer a horrifying cut by a skate blade. If you want to read more about his journey, I recommend this piece at The Athletic ($) by Scott Wheeler. Both developments sidelined Moldenhauer for extended periods of time and damaged his draft stock. Last season was a return to full health and Moldenhauer was excellent. 

He scored 75 points in 50 games for the USHL's Chicago Steel, second on his team in points/PPG behind only Macklin Celebrini (Boston U), one of a few players vying for the first overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft. In the league, Moldenhauer was third in total scoring and fifth in PPG, trailing only Celebrini and three USNTDP superstars. Because Moldenhauer is a May '04 birthday, last season was his age 18 season. For comparison, Mackie Samoskevich scored just 0.97 points-per-game in his age 18 season. 

It's not a perfect comparison but I bring Samoskevich up because I think there are some similarities as two sub-6 foot, slimmer wingers who both came from the Chicago Steel. The skillsets also have some similarities. This is from EPRinkside's draft guide before the 2022 NHL Draft: 

Moldenhauer’s skills are readily apparent. He’s a dexterous handler, especially in tight spaces. Backhand, forehand, and slip passes feature regularly, even in-motion and under pressure. And the shot’s just as impressive, with the lower-body flexion and hand placement to generate significant force, and the elevated elbow and craftiness to change the angle inside his release.

Puck-handling, shooting (not Samoskevich level, though), and passing are all elements of Moldenhauer's game that should be assets in the NCAA right away, but surprisingly for an undersized winger, Moldenhauer's physical game drew praise. His ability to power through contact were praised by scouts and "high energy", "compete level", and "work ethic" are all phrases tossed around as well. The transition game and skating ability aren't quite there yet, so that is something to watch in terms of his development at Michigan.

No one really thinks that Moldenhauer has an individual elite NHL skill or describes him as dynamic, but a well-rounded player who works hard, brings passion, skill, and shooting ability, and was a high level player in the USHL should translate quickly into the NCAA. A cross between Samoskevich and Gavin Brindley may be the best comparison for Moldenhauer and that is a very enticing description. 

Season Expectations: I see Moldenhauer comfortably sliding into Michigan's top six alongside Dylan Duke, Frank Nazar, Gavin Brindley, Rutger McGroarty, and TJ Hughes, and he should be productive. 10+ goals and 15+ points feels like a reasonable expectation for Moldenhauer, assuming he gets sizable usage. Not a star right away, but an impactful NCAA player who hopefully will look more and more like a draft steal for his hometown Maple Leafs. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Less touted freshmen and goalies]

 

[His twitter]

Garrett Schifsky

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 5'9"/174

NHL Draft Position: N/A 

Stats: 28-24-52 in 57 games last season for the Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL)

Garrett Schifsky is the sort of forward recruit that Michigan typically doesn't take many of but I, for one, am very pleased to see Naurato bringing one in. The type I'm referring to is an older, accomplished USHL player who can come in and make a quicker impact and stick around to be a three/four year fixture of the program. You need NHL talent, sure, but you build stability as a program and make your lineup deeper by stocking the cupboard full of non-draftee, strong USHL recruits. Schifsky is one of those. 

Schifsky is a child of the Twin Cities suburbs who played high school hockey in Andover, MN, before going to the USHL, where he was a successful piece for Waterloo. He scored 28 goals in 60 games in 2021-22, his first USHL season, and then was elected team captain for 2022-23. Last season he scored 28 goals again, but upped his assist total to 24 for 52 points in 57 games. He was named All-USHL Third Team, the highest scoring player on Waterloo and in the top 25 in the league in points. His 28 goals was tied for 14th. 

I don't have too much scouting information on Schifsky but given the high goal-scoring totals, I would assume his shot is a strength. More importantly, Schifsky's age (20) makes him predisposed for an easier transition to college hockey, even if his smaller frame does not convey immediate dominance. Positionally, Schifsky was listed as a center in the USHL but could certainly play the wing as well (almost every center can do that). 

Season Expectations: There are different possibilities of how Michigan could set this lineup, which will determine where Schifsky plays. TJ Hughes and Frank Nazar will be two centers, but where does Gavin Brindley play? If he is a center, then Schifsky is on the wing. If they'd rather have Brindley at wing in the top six (my preferred solution), Schifsky could be the third line center on a line with someone like Jackson Hallum and Josh Eernisse (or a top six player bumped down). That would be an easier role that could allow Schifsky to succeed early on and I think he'd do a good job in it, with the possibility of PP2 duty too. Something like 8-10 goals and 8-10 assists as a true freshman is a reasonable place to set the bar if Schifsky plays 35-40 games more in a third line capacity, with the ability to round into a strong player down the line. 

 

[St. Thomas Athletics]

Josh Eernisse

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 6'2"/205

NHL Draft Position: N/A 

Stats: 14-7-21 in 36 games last season for St. Thomas 

Many of you may be surprised to know that "St. Thomas" is a D1 program. They moved up to D1 two seasons ago and have been a New CCHA bottom feeder in that time. Last season one of their best players was Josh Eernisse, a big local winger (St. Thomas is located in the Twin Cities, Eernisse is from the suburb Apple Valley) who was second on the squad with 14 goals. Eernisse played Minnesota HS hockey and then spent two rather ho-hum years in the USHL with Tri City before going to St. Thomas, a program at the bottom rung of the D1 ladder. But a strong season with the Tommies put enough on tape to convince Michigan that Eernisse was a player they needed to go after and the Wolverines swept in and scooped Eernisse up. 

When Michigan picked up Eernisse, I tabbed him a 4th line player at Michigan but based on what scouts who have seen more of/have better data on Eernisse (like say, Peter) are saying, as well as chatter from program sources, Eernisse may well be more than that. After all, St. Thomas was angry enough about losing him that a "confrontation" unfolded between a St. Thomas assistant coach and a Michigan assistant coach at a coaching convention back in May. In which case, it's fair to ask: what does Michigan have on their hands? 

The program lists Eernisse at 6'2" but some have put him at 6'3", and his 205 lbs. is the second-heaviest on the team behind only Mark Estapa's 206. Peter's Hello post described Eernisse using the fabled "Power Forward" term once used to describe the likes of Brendan Shanahan, Cam Neely, and Keith Tkachuk, a big, strong winger who can score around the neat and beat you up in the corners. Anecdotally, Eernisse's 54 PIM last season in 36 games would confirm that description. Regardless of his skill, Eernisse seems likely to bring size and some jam to the Michigan lineup that has often been lacking it. 

[St. Thomas Athletics]

Eernisse was used all over for a team lacking in talent like St. Thomas, playing heavily on the PP and the PK. While his size could convey ability to play the netfront on the PP, I would assume he is not a major factor there. On the flip side, his usefulness on the PK may have been a part of Michigan's decision to zero in on Eernisse and could be a place he's used this upcoming season. Peter's piece compared Eernisse to eight similarly sized B1G forwards of recent years like Matthew Knies, Joe Dunlap, Jimmy Snuggerud, and Jagger Joshua. What it found was Eernisse had the best puck battles won%, the most loose pucks recovered per 60 minutes, and threw the third-most hits per 60 minutes. That speaks highly of his physical game.

What about offense? Eernisse did not grade out well in stats looking at non-power forward traits, scoring chances from the perimeter and the like, but excelled in his ability to score from the inner slot (around the net), which is the hallmark of such a player. He took the most inner slot shots of anyone in the sample, scored the fifth-most, and converted at the second-best rate (14.9%). I don't know how well all these abilities will translate to the B1G, but again, the program is excited about Eernisse. At Michigan, he doesn't have to be a dominating player who tilts the ice. Eernisse just has to fill in a complementary role and if he can help more skilled players out by defending well, imposing himself physically, being a puck hound who recovers the loose puck to keep it cycling, and screens the goalie/demands attention around the net, he will be a key piece on a winning hockey team. At the very least, it seems like Eernisse has a shot to do so. 

Season Expectations: Eernisse could be a third liner with Garrett Schifsky and a Jackson Hallum, but if he can hack it in the B1G in the abstract, then I like Eernisse up in the lineup a bit more. His specific skillset is one that makes highly skilled, smaller players better and I could see him thriving with Frank Nazar, for example. Let Eernisse live below the hashmarks, going from the corner to the netfront in the OZ and bang around while the other players on the ice show their speed and skill. It's hard to project a statline until we know where Eernisse is playing, but I'd assume more goals than assists and not a ton of production overall, but what Eernisse does on the micro-stat sheet is just as important as the box score. 

 

I AM EXCITED [Omaha Lancers]

Tanner Rowe 

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6'1"/179

NHL Draft Position: N/A 

Stats: 6-9-15 in 58 games last season for the Omaha Lancers (USHL)

Michigan was looking to bolster their 4C depth when they grabbed a commitment from Tanner Rowe out of the USHL last November, because there's not much other reason to pick up someone like Rowe. Rowe is a Yooper, a native of Calumet whose dad played at Northern and whose sister went to Tech, who played Michigan HS hockey up in the UP before heading off to the USHL, where he spent a couple seasons with Omaha of the USHL after one in the NAHL. Rowe was not much of a scorer in the USHL, 26 points in 116 games in that league and his time in the NAHL wasn't any more productive. The expectation for his offense is very low. 

What Michigan presumably wants Rowe to be able to do is grow into a dependable defense-first centerman who can hold down the bottom of the lineup and kill penalties. Like Kienan Draper last year, taking Rowe is a sort of grow-a-Garrett-Van-Wyhe, though both players were lower scoring than GVW was in the USHL and NAHL. Draper didn't pop much last season for Michigan and I'm not sure Rowe will either, though he is already 21 (same age as Draper) so you'd assume he's closer as a freshman than Draper was. Rowe is also a left-shot center, which is typically an abundance but for Michigan is strangely a hot commodity, as Brindley, Nazar, TJ Hughes, Draper and Schifsky are all right-shot centers. I don't recall handedness being a big priority in faceoffs for Brandon Naurato, but sometimes it's useful, which could give Rowe a small edge in terms of being in the lineup, so he could be deployed in those certain situations. 

Season Expectations: In all likelihood, the 4C job will be won by whoever is most effective on the PK and who can provide the most offensive upside, which is very relative because neither Draper nor Rowe have any of it. I'd think both guys get their chance at being able to win the role in real games through the fall, but probably give the edge to Draper given experience in the program. For Rowe, I'll guess he plays ~15 games and scores very few points, but he could end up being a much bigger fixture of the lineup for all we know. 

 

[Miami University Athletics]

Chase Pletzke 

Year: GRAD 

Height/Weight: 5'11"/175 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 0-0-0 in 20 games for Miami (OH) last season 

The most perplexing addition to the Michigan team at any position this offseason was Miami (OH) transfer Chase Pletzke, a four-year player for the RedHawks who was marginal at best for a bad program. Pletzke spent time in the NAHL and BCHL before going to Miami at 19 for the 2019-20 season. He scored 6-8-14 in 28 games as a true freshman, solid production for a kid of that age, but his scoring clip dropped off precipitously in the subsequent seasons. He notched only 2-1-3 in 21 games during the COVID season, and then his stats get even crazier. 

In 2021-22, Pletzke played 31 games and scored seven goals and zero assists for seven points. That alone is hard to do, but then in 2022-23, Pletzke played 20 games and scored zero goals and zero assists for zero points. At first glance, I assumed Pletzke had to have been Miami's 19th skater, taking few shifts each game, but the data from InStat shows that he played nearly 14.5 minutes per game last season. He took 30 shots on goal yet somehow ended up with zero points... as a forward!! How is that possible? I am not being hyperbolic when I say this is genuinely the strangest set of hockey career stats I have ever seen. 

I don't know what to make of any of that but it's very clear that Pletzke was not an impactful offensive forward at Miami, was not played highly in the lineup, and not used all that much. Considering that Miami went 8-24-4 last season, it does not portend well for Pletzke's ability to be a regular at Michigan if he was merely a rotational player with the RedHawks. I would assume that his presence at Michigan is him A) being a Michigander (from Bay City) and B) wanting to get a grad degree at Michigan for unrelated professional reasons. He's probably a pseudo walk-on who joined the team to provide depth if needed and to his credit, InStat had him averaging 2.5 minutes on the PK per game when he played last year. So, it's probably best to look at Pletzke as the 14th forward but a player who has played a lot of college hockey and could jump in as a 4th line winger and help kill penalties if injury arises. 

Season Expectations: I don't assume that Pletzke will play much for Michigan, but he'll probably get some games in. If he does, he will be strictly a 4th liner with PK and limited 5v5 duties. Point production is likely to be close to zero and given the career stat lines, if he scores points, those points will likely be goals. 

 

[Canisius University Athletics/Tom Wolf]

GOALIES

Jacob Barczewski

Year: GRAD

Height/Weight: 6'1"/180

NHL Draft Position: N/A 

Stats: 16-15-1, 2.64 GAA, .918 SV% in 32 games for Canisius last season

Michigan's probable starting goalie for this season comes via the transfer portal, a four year starter at Canisius. Once again I refer you to Peter's Hello of Barczewski, which covers a good bit of what will be detailed in this section. Barczewski played in the USHL with Tri-City and then enrolled at Canisius for his age 21 season in 2019-20. Barczewski seized the reins immediately in net for the Golden Griffins, appearing in 28 games as a freshman and posting a .905 SV%. 2020-21 was a severely shortened season in the Atlantic Hockey Association, so Barczewski played only 11 games, but his .926 SV% was excellent. He nearly maintained that mark across a full season of games (29 of them in fact) in 2021-22, with a .923. 

Barzcewski was at that level at the conclusion of last year's regular season, before guiding Canisius through the AHA Tournament and shutting out Holy Cross to reach the NCAA Tournament. That was the pinnacle of Barczewski's Canisius career and it came just before the fall, getting bombed for 9 goals by Minnesota in the opening round of the tournament. That dud of a final game tanked his SV% down to .918, but Barczewski's career in Buffalo was an unambiguous success story. There's only so much shame he can have for that showing in the 1/16 matchup, which can often go that way. 

Now he enters a conference that represents a massive step up in competition and that's the big question. No one can deny that Barczewski was an excellent Atlantic Hockey goalie, one of the very best in that league. Can he translate that style of play to the B1G? The sample we have of Barczewski facing teams of the caliber that you see in the B1G is extremely small, basically four total contests across four seasons. Last year he stopped 40 of 44 against Penn State (.909) and then had that poor showing against Minnesota, 27/36 (.750). In 2021-22 he stopped 39 of 40 against Penn State (.975) and then he played parts of two games against North Dakota way back in fall 2019 and stopped 33 of 38 (0.868). In totality that's 139/158 or .880. Not ideal, but there's a lot going on there. 

Some of the limited film I can show you. Consume at your own risk

First of all, it's simply way too small of a sample to say anything definitive. Goaltending is highly variable and influenced by a significant degree of randomness. It takes a much larger sample of games to begin to draw conclusions. Secondly, goaltenders and the team in front of them are linked in inextricable ways, with the caliber of defense, the amount of structure, and the systems a team runs playing a large role. Hence how the Vegas Golden Knights were able to win a Stanley Cup with unheralded netminder Adin Hill and how their coach, Bruce Cassidy, has made a career out of designing systems that produce good goaltending. Barczewski's team in Canisius was completely overmatched in all of those games against high-level competition, which will not be the case when Barczewski faces those same teams as Michgan's goalie. 

The data Peter presented in the Hello for Barczewski painted him unfavorably compared to Erik Portillo when he was in motion (i.e. sliding across) and that could be a particular issue when Barczewski went up against these high-end teams with Canisius' defense in front of him. Since the defense was overmatched, they were probably ceding more dangerous passes, leading to more shots where Barczewski had to slide across. Something to gnaw on. The tape of Canisius/Minnesota in the NCAA Tournament did indeed show a number of high-danger and odd-man rush chances being ceded, which put Barczewski in a difficult spot. It wasn't the only reason for the crooked line (Barczewski was lackluster in other areas), but it was a big factor. 

Michigan's defense, which could ice a lineup featuring a 5th year player, two seniors, a junior, and two sophomores, should be good enough to give him a lot more help, and a chance to succeed. Taking away dangerous passes, limiting rush chances against, and keeping the goalie clean to see the puck are all ways Michigan can help Barczewski assimilate. This hasn't necessarily been Michigan's strongsuit defensively in recent years, much to my chagrin, but they finally have an upperclassmen-heavy defense and are in the second year of this coaching staff. A defense that gives up gobs of rush chances and high-danger looks again will be both surprising and unacceptable. 

[Canisius Athletics/Tom Wolf]

I don't think anyone would really argue that Justen Close of Minnesota is any more "talented" than Barczewski, yet Close has been able to be a strong NCAA goalie for the Gophers who has won them multiple B1G titles and taken them to two Frozen Fours. Why? They had a structured, veteran defense that did all of those things that I mentioned to make life easier on their goalie. Michigan will need to play a more structured, defensive game to help their goalies this season than they have had to play in the past, whether it's Barczewski or West, but they are capable of doing so and if they do, I think Barczewski could have success. As Connor Earegood of The Michigan Daily documented, Barczewski has been pretty consistent at delivering quality starts over his career, which is what you want out of a starter. A guy with a .925 in Atlantic Hockey play shouldn't be a total pumpkin in the B1G, so long as the team doesn't leave him out to dry. 

Season Expectations: Brandon Naurato has maintained that Barczewski and West are in a battle for the starting job. My hunch is that Barczewski is the favorite going into the competition but I have no reason to believe it's a gigantic edge or project with huge amounts of confidence. Barczewski has much more NCAA Hockey experience, both in terms of starts and minutes played, but he has no experience at this level of hockey and in this conference. West has limited experience too, but is more familiar with the program, coaching staff, and systems that will support the position.

It may well be a true tandem for the first month or two of the season, one guy starts Fridays, one guy starts Saturdays, until someone runs away with it. Even if someone does, I wouldn't be totally sure that the other guy will just vanish. A 75/25 split is a believable outcome too, although eventually someone will have to be The Guy when the postseason rolls around. As of now, the goaltending question is the biggest one on the team, but at the very least Barczewski has tons of NCAA experience and has had lots of success at lower levels. There are worse places to be starting from, and the team in front of him (and West) will shoulder a lot of responsibility in helping him succeed.  

 

[David Wilcomes]

Noah West

Year: Senior 

Height/Weight: 6'2"/185 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 1-1-1, 2.92 GAA, .920 SV% in 5 games for Michigan last season 

The other candidate to be Michigan's starting goalie this season is Noah West, who has sat behind Erik Portillo as a backup for two seasons after being a freshman starter at Robert Morris before COVID put an end to their program. West started 19 games for Robert Morris in 2020-21, with a .915 (they were also an Atlantic Hockey program). After he became orphaned by the cancelation of the Robert Morris team, West transferred to Michigan and has played sparingly since arriving. 

The 2021-22 season saw West play just two games, both when Portillo was yanked from games. In 2022-23, West actually got to start three games, twice against PSU when Portillo was under the weather and once against Harvard in a decision that was presumably to send a message to Portillo after a listless showing against Minnesota. West did okay on the whole, one exceptional game (46/48!!!), one strong game (32/35), and one rough game (26/30). The total line from those three games is a .920 SV% and a 2.92 GAA. If West could start an entire season and replicate those numbers, that would be fine with me and likely everyone involved with Michigan Hockey.  

Is it sustainable? I'm not really sure. The sample size is so small that it's tough to extrapolate much from those numbers. Even if you want to go back to his Robert Morris days, that is nearly impossible to read anything into. The Colonials were a bad team in a bad conference, a total apples to oranges compared to Michigan and it was also over two years ago. In the meantime West has played three real games. Last season West was bumpy in his three games and never seriously challenged Portillo for the starting job but that's not too surprising considering Portillo's track record and NHL pedigree. Even when he was struggling, West wasn't going to jump over him. And again, West played three games. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

Season Expectations: Refer to what I said in the Barczewski section because it applies here. 

 

[Norwich University Athletics]

Andrew Albano 

Year: GRAD

Height/Weight: 6'0"/170 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 4-1-2, 1.11 GAA, .956 SV% in 7 games last season for Norwich University (DIII) 

At the conclusion of last season, Michigan's never-used (well, except to dress as a forward when half the team is sick) third goalie Tyler Shea entered the transfer portal (he eventually signed with Brown University), leaving a vacancy in that role. The team went into the portal and found a one-year solution, Andrew Albano from Norwich University. Even for third-string goalies, Albano is remarkably obscure. He played just seven games last year and only eight the year before that, with a different goalie getting the lion's share of work, signaling that Albano was the backup... for a DIII program. His stats look incredible but Norwich is a very good team, so don't read much into that. 

I don't really have anything to say about Albano, he's not going to play at all and he is a grad transfer (November '98 birthday!!!), so this will be his only year at Michigan. There isn't any reason to learn about Albano because if he's playing any significant minutes, Michigan is fucked and we don't practice fucked. 

Season Expectations: Albano is a third goalie. In my six previous seasons following Michigan hockey, the third goalie has never played a meaningful minute. I don't anticipate that changing. He may get to play in a 15-0 game or something against Lindenwood/Stonehill, but that will be it.