Three years ago, Michigan made an exciting run to the Frozen Four. Then…they finished sixth in the Big Ten. Last year, the Wolverines were on the Bubble and poised to make a run into the Tournament, again, when the postseason was canceled. Now, we’re back…to 2011? 2018? Maybe pick and choose and have a celebratory 2021? Let’s see…
 

The Field

Michigan’s Regional (Fargo, ND)

(1) North Dakota, (2) Michigan, (3) Minn-Duluth, (4) American International College: What the…death. I said on the HockeyCast last week that the two teams I wanted to avoid for their seed levels were North Dakota at 1 and Duluth at 2/3. Well…here they are! Michigan drew the Mammoth Beast, the Tournament Magicians, and…Notre Dame American International. NoDak and Duluth are also playing a few hours from home. This seems similar to 2018 when Michigan drew Northeastern and BU in Massachusetts. Hopefully, they get the same results. Still, I would prefer we do one of these instead: one, two, or three. Maybe one day.

(2) Michigan vs (3) Minnesota-Duluth

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Minn-Duluth	15th	20%	75%	8	4	2.32	.909	2-3
Michigan	5th	24%	82%	7 (+3)	5	1.89	.930	2-2-1

Deeeeeeeeeeeeep Breaths………sigh [James Collar]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Minnesota-Duluth:

1. Get shots. Michigan is near the best in the country on even strength attempts on net. Duluth isn’t ranked a lot lower in even strength corsi, but I would expect the Wolverines to be able to control the puck for stretches of this game. The Bulldogs have alternated goalies, but it doesn’t seem like they have completely settled their competition in net…probably because neither Fanti nor Stejskal have completely claimed the crease. With a couple of notable exceptions, Strauss Mann has been extremely dependable. If Michigan can force whomever the Bulldogs start in net to try to win them the game, my money is with Mann. To top that off, the Duluth Kill looks like something that Michigan should be able to take advantage of.

2. Push the Puck to the Blue line. Duluth’s defense has scored 4 goals and 37 total points. The Bulldogs get the bulk of their scoring from their depth of forward lines. In the defensive zone, Michigan needs to stay tight inside and put the pressure on the Duluth defensemen to do the play-making and shooting.

3. Hope Duluth’s Tournament Luck Changes. Starting with their victory over Michigan in 2011, Duluth has won 6 straight NCAA Tournament games if they reach OT.  They are also 8-1 in one goal games in their last three NCAA Tournaments. On top of that, they are back-to-back defending National Champions. I’m not trying to take anything away from the program that Scott Sandelin has built nor that talent he has brought in and developed over the last decade+…but at some point you can’t win every coin flip…can you?

Final Thoughts: Duluth has mostly similar numbers to Michigan, but they are slightly worse on the Kill and in net. Their draft picks are also mostly mid-to-low round choices. Against NoDak and St Cloud (the top two teams in the NCHC), Duluth is 3-6-1. This doesn’t appear to be one of Those Duluth teams, either. Michigan has a little more high end talent, is steadier on the back end and in net, and seems a notch better on each side of special teams. Is this the time to exorcise some demons? It might just be.

Alex Drain’s Take: If you renamed Duluth "Idaho State", I think most Michigan fans would feel very good about this matchup, as good as you can about a 2/3 game in a one-game, single elimination hockey tournament. But instead this team is Duluth, and with it comes the associated mojo, be it from 2011, or their back-to-back championships. However, as David mentioned, things have changed in the Iron Range. Goaltender Hunter Shepard, who was an assassin in the tournament, has moved onto the AHL. As has Scott Perunovich, Mikey Anderson, Riley Tufte, Dylan Samberg, Justin Richards, and Parker Mackay. They've still got some talent and a great coach, but they lack the obvious signs of a team that could cause trouble in this type of tournament, most notably the absence of a rock in net. Across the board they come off as a largely unimpressive middle-tier NCHC team. That's still probably a good hockey team, and one that could very easily take down the Wolverines, but I think Michigan is favored. You don't get many power plays in playoff hockey, and so it's imperative that Michigan converts when they get them. And maybe stick a pin in the Duluth voodoo doll while you're at it, too. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

 

Michigan’s Other Regional Game:

(1) North Dakota vs (4) American International College

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
American	6th	24%	78%	1	6	1.95	.912	5-0
North Dakota	8th	25%	86%	12	6	1.81	.928	4-1

David’s Take: This is either a STOMP or Plink-O. NoDak is better at everything. They are Goliath. AIC has made two NCAAs…ever. This is one. The other was 2019 when they knocked off the #1 overall. Because obviously. I bet that lightning does NOT sting twice for the Yellow Jackets. The Fighting Sioux Hawks advance.

Alex’s Take: AIC's a tough team to get a handle of. They're from Atlantic Hockey, so they're probably not very good. But, to the AHA's credit, they've made noise before. Actually, a lot of it. RIT toppled #1 overall seed Minnesota State, and Air Force/AIC did it to #1 overall seed St. Cloud in back to back years (2018, 2019). Now North Dakota is a program that, ahem, has a better track record of going deep in the NCAA Tournament than either of those programs, and NoDak has so much talent. What I will say about AIC is that they have to have a lot of confidence as a team that has rarely lost this year and is filled with players who were on that 2019 team. That's a tad dangerous. But it's hard to believe in the Yellow Jackets when they've got a PK in the 70s and ceded 7 PP goals in two games against the only major conference team they played (Quinnipiac). If Michigan beats Duluth, we are all the biggest AIC fans in the world, but it's a longshot, folks. 

Regional Winner - David: The Michigan fan in me wants a 2011 repeat with a different ending. Sure, they could beat NoDak because in NCAA Hockey, Anything Is Possible. But what would KenPom or Bill C say? I don’t know. It seems like this is Michigan’s Staging Year and next year is the Launch Year. Michigan loses a tough game to a better team and we’re all disappointed…but understanding. The Wolverines get almost everyone back, add Samoskevich/Duke/Edwards/Hughes et al…and are the One Seed in 360+ days. What say you, Alex?

Regional Winner - Alex: If Michigan beats Duluth and loses to NoDak, I will probably be fine with the outcome of the season. But the Wolverines have a real chance to beat North Dakota if they get to the Regional Final. They can go toe-to-toe with Dakota's talent, and that would be one heck of a hockey game, as close as you can probably get to the pros at the NCAA level. Neither team has obvious weaknesses and it would be a matter of who blinks first. I'll take North Dakota because they've been so good this year start to finish, but yeah, anything is possible. Four of NoDak's five losses were to UNO and Denver, a pair of bubble teams It's hockey. Two good stints of 60 minutes and Mel Pearson's team could easily be going to another Frozen Four. I'm just not seeing it as probable. 

 

Badgers earn the final top seed [JD Scott]

Bridgeport, CT Regional

(1) Wisconsin, (2) Massachusetts, (3) Lake Superior State, (4) Bemidji State: Wisconsin looked like they could be in trouble in December, but the Badgers have stormed through the second half of the season, overtaking Minnesota…and beating them multiple times. Cole Caufield is too good for college hockey. Massachusetts has also had quite a 2021, losing only twice (to BU). Lake State 13-3 in their last 16 games, losing twice in overtime. Bemidji is on the fortunate side to sneak into the tournament. The defense and goaltending is stout all around in Bridgeport.

(2) Massachusetts vs (3) Lake Superior State

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Lake Superior State	22nd	12%	82%	1	2	1.86	.933	5-0
Massachusetts	9th	23%	90%	4	6	1.78	.925	4-0-1

David’s Take: This game is kind of fascinating. Both teams have similar profiles. Lake State hasn’t been to the dance since I was 11 years old. Alex was –3. Is this their year? No, this tournament is cruel. I’m taking the UMass Cale Makars.

Alex’s Take: Nothing about Lake State says they should win this game... except how dang hot they are. It's been a miracle run and the Lakers have to brimming with confidence, but yeah on paper, I'm taking UMass too. 

(1) Wisconsin vs (4) Bemidji State

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Bemidji State	30th	16%	93%	0	2	2.27	.924	4-1
Wisconsin	29th	32%	85%	10	5	2.46	.923	4-1

David’s Take: Power Play #1 vs Penalty Kill #1…FIGHT! This could be the #plinko game, but Caufield and Co get it done. In the end, the Badgers are too much for the Beavers.

Alex’s Take: I've never been much of a believer in the WCHA, so I favor Wisconsin here, but yeah the matchup of Wisco's PP vs. Bemidji's PK is incredibly interesting. As they say, something's gotta give. Bemidji's goalie Zach Driscoll is the kind of goalie who could make things interesting, with great stats and also plenty of experience. But can the Beavers score? Not as sure, and I feel comfortable taking the team with the (likely) Hobey winner and probably the two best players in one of the NCAA's premier conferences. 

Regional Winner - David: Wisconsin earned the right to be a #1 seed. They also have the most holes for a top seed. This region is full of teams that have been HAWT, HAWT, HAWT! UMass beats the Badgers as the rule states: “Not All One Seeds Shall Advance.” 

Regional Winner - Alex: Wisconsin's just been too deadly down the stretch for me to go away from them. I think the B1G was legit in hockey this year (unlike basketball, I guess) and I see multiple B1G Frozen Four teams. Tony Granato's crew continues their scorching 2021 by toppling UMass. 

 

Morris isn’t around anymore, but the Irish crashed the party anyway [James Coller]

Albany, NY Regional

(1) Boston College, (2) St Cloud State, (3) Boston University, (4) Notre Dame: I complained about getting the Region of Death because of history and hauntings, but Boston College was set to play St Lawrence and got Notre Dame instead. Woof. The Eagles have a generational goalie, draft picks for days, and a rock solid profile. They also draw Notre Dame who has a history of flipping tournaments on their heads with their style. This isn’t a typical Irish team, though. Their defense and goaltending leave a bit to be desired. They also are here solely due to COVID. Boston University has their usual slew of NHL selections. The Terriers….have only played 15 games. St Cloud has been good, not great. They have ideal special teams numbers. Other than that, the Huskies are largely unnoticeable.

(1) Boston College vs (4) Notre Dame

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Notre Dame	19th	19%	81%	9	3	2.44	.921	4-1
Boston College	26th	16%	86%	13	7	2.13	.933	3-2

David’s Take: This is a suboptimal draw for Boston College. Given the circumstances, its the ripe choice for Plink-O. So, it will probably be 5-1, BC. I’m staying chalk, here.

Alex’s Take: Notre Dame definitely has the best chance to topple a 1 seed of any team in this tournament, but I still don't think this is the ND team to do it. And if I have to pick between Dylan St. Cyr and Spencer Knight between the pipes, I'm taking Knight. There's a chance the Irish could get a fluke goal and then slow BC down and win 1-0, but I think the Eagles are too deep here. 

(2) St Cloud State vs (3) Boston University

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Boston U	15th	15%	84%	13	3	2.57	.922	2-2-1
St Cloud State	17th	23%	85%	4	2	2.60	.906	3-2

David’s Take: St Cloud has had quite the run of good hockey over the last decade but the worst luck in the Tournament. Some things don’t change. Terriers over Huskies for me.

Alex’s Take: I like BU a lot as a team with a dangerous amount of talent. They're the ultimate wild card in this tournament, simply because they haven't played much. I agree that St. Cloud State's poor tournament luck continues. 

Regional Winner - David: The Bostons split their regular season series. There is Just Something About the Eagles. It’s not More Than a Feeling, though. The Chestnut Hill-ers head to Pittsburgh. 

Regional Winner - Alex: I've got the same Regional Final here but I'm going to go the other way with it. BU played BC back in the fall and BU actually won that on aggregate. It could be a crazy fun matchup but I'm gonna shake things up and go with the Terriers here. 

 

One last go for JLF [Patrick Barron]

Loveland, CO Regional

(1) Minnesota, (2) Minnesota State, (3) Quinnipiac, (4) Nebraska-Omaha: The Gophers are the constant: high end talent, pretty good at everything, well coached. Hopefully, they’ve used up their bounces with the OT wins in the Big Ten Tournament. Quinnipiac and Minnesota State ain’t played nobody all year. That makes their matchup perfect: great numbers, no resumes. Nebraska-Omaha beat up on the bottom four of the NCHC (11-4). Their numbers are…okay.  

(2 ) Minnesota State vs (3) Quinnipiac

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Qunnipiac	9th	25%	89%	4	4	1.82	.927	3-2
Minnesota State	1st	27%	84%	2	4	1.40	.930	4-1

David’s Take: Quinnipiac might be the scariest three seed. They have great numbers and a Hobey candidate. Minnesota State was staring down a #1 seed until getting bombed by Northern Michigan in the WCHA semifinal. Odeen Tufto is the offensive difference in this defensive stalemate. The Bobcats advance.

Alex’s Take: Even though I'm always a naysayer on the WCHA, I'll take Minnesota State for the heck of it. Odeen Tufto is definitely a player, and QPac has a good goalie in Keith Petruzzelli too, but I just like the team with an even more dominant goalie in the other net: Dryden McKay and the Mavericks. They've flamed out often in the NCAA's, but this year they get a win. 

(1) Minnesota vs (4) Nebraska-Omaha

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games
Nebraska-Omaha	34th	20%	85%	3	3	2.86	.912	1-4
Minnesota	16th	19%	85%	13	7	1.74	.936	4-1

David’s Take: Jack LaFontaine has waited a while, but he’ll earn his first NCAA Tournament win. The Gophers are too much for the middling Mavericks.

Alex’s Take: Yeah, Omaha doesn't present a lot of danger to me. They've been cold down the stretch, won several OT games to help get them in the tourney, and their stats are extremely middling. We've seen Minnesota... they're good, deep, talented, experienced, and with a confident goalie backstopping them.

Regional Winner - David: Minnesota is going to have a really tough game in the Elite 8. Either team is going to give you fits. In the end, Motzko and the NHL talent are the difference. 

Regional Winner - Alex: Minnesota is not an unbeatable team, as Wisconsin and Michigan have shown, but I just don't think there's a team in this region who I like to take them down, frankly. My prediction of a Minnesota State-Minnesota Regional Final would be lots of fun, but I'd take the Gophers in a low scoring affair there.