Looking to 2016: What Michigan, MSU and OSU Lose

Submitted by Bambi on

Even though we have a great season going on right now with much to be accomplished, I can't help but look forward to next year at the same time. As great as this year is, next year could be that much better. The biggest hurdle for us next year is the fact that we have OSU and MSU on the road (thanks Delaney) so I decided to see how their teams will tentatively look next year.

First, I'll start with us though.

What Michigan Loses On Offense:

So we all know this pretty well, but next year we return a whopping 8 starters on offense, which is great news. Everyone but Jake Rudock, Joe Kerridge and Graham Glasgow will return which bodes well for Michigan. While losing Glasgow, our second best OL, will hurt Michigan should survive wither by plugging in Kugler at Center or moving Cole to Center and putting Newsome at LT.

The Rudock loss looks like it will hurt more now that he's played so well these past two weeks, but between O'Korn, Morris, Speight, Malzone, Gentry, Peters and any grad transfers, Michigan should be able to find at least one good option among the bunch.

The Kerridge loss hurts even more because his back up Sione Houma will graduate as well (thanks Hoke). Both these guys have had very nice senior years in an offense that features the full back relatively often, so losing two major contributors there is less than ideal. That being said, I don't think this should hamper Michigan too much. We have a few guys already on the roster that can fill this spot in Poggi, Shallman and Winovich, plus we bring in some guys like Kingston Davis who could contribute immediately. Harbaugh knows how to coach this utilize guys in this position well so I'm fairly confident someone will be able to fill in competently here next year.

For non-starters, Michigan will probably lose a couple noncontributing potential 5th years like Blake Bars. We also lose AJ Williams, who has been having a very nice senior year relative to what we expected. Once again this loss shouldn't be huge though with Butt, Hill, Bunting and potentially Nauta as well. Harbaugh and co can coach TE's up well, as shown by Williams’s jump this year, so there should be plenty to work with there.

The only threat to leave early for Michigan on offense is Jake Butt, but to this point I haven't heard a ton of rumblings about that and would be fairly surprised if he left. One more year under Harbaugh and a great senior year could push him firmly into the first round of the 2017 draft.

What Michigan Loses On Defense:

On defense Michigan loses a lot more, but still returns enough to be very excited about next year. Michigan returns 6/7 starters, depending on how you look at it.

On the DL, everyone but BUCKs Mario Ojemudia and Royce Jenkins-Stone will return. The staff has applied for a 5th year for Ojemudia but it doesn't seem likely that he'll get it. Even with these losses, Michigan's DL should be great next year. If one of Lawrence Marshall, Taco Charlton or Carlo Kemp can just be average here next year, this D-Line should be one of the best in the country.

At LB, Michigan loses all 3 (or 2 considering how often we play with 5 DBs) starters in Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden and James Ross. This is one of the two big questions mark spots on the team next year. The only guy with any experience who returns next year is Ben Gedeon, who has looked good in his limited action so far. Once again, considering how often Michigan has used 5 DBs this year, if even just one of Mike McCray, Allen Gant, Noah Furbush, Jared Wangler, potentially Chase Winovich and whatever recruits we bring can emerge to be average, I think the LBs will be fine, especially playing behind that D-Line.

In the secondary we lose Jarrod Wilson. This is the biggest loss on defense IMO, as Wilson has played at an All-B1G level this year. Next year the nominal starters would be Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill. While both have been very inconsistent at times this year, not a great trait in a safety, both have also played great football at times. If they can improve at a reasonable rate this offseason, I think Michigan will be fine at safety. If one or both don't pan out, then Michigan will probably try to plug in Tyree Kinnel or even Jabril Peppers back there.

It's also worth noting that we lose Blake O'Neil, who will most likely be replaced by Kenny Allen. That should be a net loss but Allen was brought in mainly as a punter and should be serviceable next year.

The only threat to leave early is Jourdan Lewis, who has said he plans to return, so as of now there should be no early departures although we know how things can change.

Now I'll move on to OSU and MSU. There will be much less analysis there as I know a lot less about their rosters, and more of just listing who is leaving.

What MSU Loses On Offense:

MSU has done a complete 180 this year, succeeding because of an incredible passing offense with a mediocre at best run game and defense. The good news for Michigan fans is that offense gets gutted next year.

The biggest lost is of course potential 1st rounder Connor Cook. He alone is the reason MSU only has 1 loss so far and no matter who replaces him MSU will feel a hard drop there.

At wideout, MSU loses 4 of their top 6 on the depth chart. Potential 1st rounder Aaron Burbridge, Macgarrett Kings Jr., DeAnthony Arnett and AJ Troup are all seniors who will be graduating next year. Their receiving is probably the best in the B1G this year, so losing 4 of the top 6 including their top 2 is a major loss for Sparty.

MSU doesn't lose any RBs but does lose starting FB Trevor Pendelton. They probably won't lose anyone at TE besides 3rd string contributor Paul Lang. Theoretically they could lose starting TE Josiah Price, who is currently junior projected to go on day 2 or 3 of the draft, but if we assume Butt doesn't leave, it's safe to assume he doesn’t.

At OL, they lose starting Center Jack Allen, and All-American, and starting OG Donovan Clark. It's also safe to assume that starting LT Jack Conklin, another potential 1st round pick, will leave for the draft. Starting RT Kodi Kieler is a potential day 2 or 3 pick but will probably stay at this point. Backup OL Brandon Clemons will graduate as well.

TLDR: MSU will lose at least 6 starters for sure next year. They will probably lose a 7th in Conklin, with potentially up to 9 in Price and Kieler, although those aren't very likely. They also will lose 4 of their top 6 wideouts, a backup OL, and a contributing TE.

What MSU Loses On Defense:

MSU's defense has struggled all year, with the only bright spot being their front 4. Next year, however, they will lose 3 of those 4 starters. Shilique Calhoun, Joel Heath, and Lawrence Thomas all graduate, along with backup DL Damon Knox.

In the back 7, MSU returns a lot more. Starting LB Darien Harris and starting CB Arjen Colquhoun both graduate and the rest of the back 7 returns, although with how their secondary has played this year that may not be a good thing. The biggest potential for MSU next year will be LB Ed Davis. Davis was a 5th year senior this year and preseason All-American who was injured in training camp for the year. If he gets a 6th year MSU could have a great LB corps next year to make up for their depleted D-Line. If not, this might be the worst MSU defense in almost a decade.

MSU also loses long snapper Taybor Pepper.

TLDR: MSU loses 5 starters next year, include most of their fantastic D-Line. Potentially a nominal 6th if Ed Davis doesn't get a 6th year.

What OSU Loses On Offense:

Predicting OSU's loses is the hardest part of all of this since they have so many guys who may leave early for the draft.

The biggest loss for OSU on offense will be on the OL, as 3 starters will graduate in OTs Taylor Decker and Chase Farris and Center Jacoby Boren. Starting TE Nick Vannett will graduate as well. JR OL Pat Elflein could potentially leave as well, but will probably stay for his SR year.

At QB, JT Barrett will be back but I expect Cardale Jones to leave, either to the NFL or to a transfer. He seems to be squarely behind Barrett at this point and will be a 5th year senior next year, so it makes sense for him to either go pro or somewhere else he will start.

At the skill positions, Braxton Miller is the only graduating senior. However, most people assume both Ezekiel Elliot and Michael Thomas will leave as they are projected 1st rounders. If they do OSU will have a lot to replace on offense, but if they don't it will be another great offense down in Columbus. Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson could both theoretically declare as well, although I expect that they stay in school.

TLDR: OSU will for sure lose 5 starters. It could be up to 7 with Elliot and Thomas, who are both most likely to go, and also probably lose Cardale Jones.

What OSU Loses On Defense:

Like MSU, OSU's strongest unit is by far their D-Line. And like MSU, that unit will be depleted next year. Starting DT's Adolphus Washington and Joel Hale, along with backup DT Tommy Schutt are all graduating after this season. Arguably the best DE in all of college football, Joey Bosa is a junior but almost a 100% lock to leave, and has been hinting at him leaving himself.

At LB, OSU for sure loses starting OLB Joshua Perry. Backup MLB Cam Williams will graduate as well. The other starting OLB Darron Lee is only a RS SO, but a projected first round pick and the #1 OLB according to some sites so many OSU fans expect him to leave this year.

In the secondary OSU graduates nobody, but both safeties are threats to leave for the draft. JR Von Bell is a guy who many think could be a late 1st round pick and the other safety Tyvis Powell is a guy many think will be a mid-round pick if he declared. Starting CB Eli Apple is also a top 5 CB prospect who some think may leave as well. If I had to guess, I'd say only Bell leaves of the three, but that remains to be seen.

TLDR: OSU graduates 3 starters, with Joey Bosa essentially being a 4th. Potentially up to 4 more starters may declare for the draft, with 2 being the more likely number. OSU could lose anywhere from 4-8 starters, most likely losing 6, along with a key backup DL and LB.

Summary

Michigan definitely loses the least out of any of these three teams. Only 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense with no major threats to leave outside of those players. Michigan also has the talent to replace most of these guys adequately, especially with the solid recruiting class we should bring in.

MSU is going to be hit the hardest. The offense loses 7 starters, including 3 potential 1st rounders, and their passing offense will be decimated. On defense they lose 5 starters including three form their only good unit. I expect a big step backwards next year.

OSU is the hardest to quantify. They will be good, no doubt, but the variance is high. If all of the underclassmen who are projected to leave decide to stay and come back for one last run, OSU will be the preseason title favorites again, and have talent coming out the wazoo. If all of these guys end up leaving, OSU will have way too much to replace and probably be a bottom end top 25 team. If something in the middle happens, which is most likely, they will be a national title contender again but not the favorite, and probably be B1G co-favorites with Michigan.

Comments

Wolvermarine

November 22nd, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^

As far as DL, we also will get Mone back and likely add the #1 player in the country in Rashan Gary, who will factor in next year somewhere.  Also FWIW insider types have pointed out Rueben Jones as the most impressive redshirt freshman so far.