Rich Rod vs. Carr decision-making
On WTKA Brian repeated something he has written as well -- that he's more forgiving of bad 'in the heat of the moment' decisions (like calling the ball spike on 3rd down at the end of the half) than bad philosophical decisions (like always punting, even in enemy territory).
I'm not so sure. I think bad 'heat of the moment' decisions are symptomatic of something else -- lack of composure, lack of preparation, lack of smarts, what have you. Bad philosophical decisions are more frustrating, sure, but you can always hope for a JoePa-like reawakening where the coach realizes the error of his overly conservative ways.
A pattern of bad 'heat of the moment' decisions, in contrast, is something that might never be remedied. So while I might forgive them, they also scare me more.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:21 PM ^
RichRod already said the 3rd down spike was his call.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:17 PM ^
i think that playing fast is important for next year. i think that saying rr should change his offensive philosophy by slowing down may fall under last years arguement of playing a pro-style offense given the personal. i guess we would have to understand rr expectations on the season. i kind of like the baptism by fire approach to be honest.i dont think rr had any grand illusions of this team competing for a big ten title this year. in the end the speed in wich rr wants to play will be critical to our success in the future.also doing so would allow teams to substitute on d. and the lord knows we want as little of that as possibe.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:28 PM ^
But is the punt everyone is crapping on Paterno about the one that ended up netting him 9 points?? Or is it some other short punt that's being questioned?
Because when you're kicking/throwing into a stiff wind and you have a great defense that's playing well as the quarter winds down, it seems like a good bet that you can get the ball right back in good position for your offense if you pin the opponent back a get a better shot with 3 downs+ than 1.
Sure the stats favor going for it, but it doesn't account for situation, weather and such. Sometimes we get so caught up in statistical probability that we don't take into the accounts of differing situations.
October 26th, 2009 at 8:11 PM ^
but how often you get the punt downed behind the 5 yard line from that distance? My football watching experience says 1 in 6. How often do teams then go 95 yards on you vs. how many times do you get safeties? I'd bet those ratios aren't too far apart.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:42 PM ^
My bad. I thought I tried to make the point that you can't account for the safety, and that's not what he was going/hoping for. I'd say how many times do kicking back to like the 10 (which is what they really did...WE moved it back to safety range) result in three or 6 or less and out, and a punt returned back to midfield or opposing territory (which is what happened after the free kick PLUS the safety) that results in short field points vs. how many times a team takes it 95 yards for a score, or even gets it out of danger range to shift field position.
I think there are enough times that pinned back punts results in short field scores that it makes it a worthwhile conservative call, and that's what I think they were going for. Not that in any way the mindset there is "hey, lets get a safety get the ball, and score on a one pass TD". Just that the odds of getting the ball back in good enough field position outweigh the odds of making 4 and 9, or whatever.
I'm just saying it's situational, and in that situation, it not only worked, but with the weather and the way the game was going, defensively, it had a good chance to work. There have been a number of times Rich has gone for it (ND, et al.) that I thought the situation said it was a GOOD chance to take. On the other side, when he tried to go for it rather than run out the clock at the end of the half vs. Iowa, I didn't think it fit that situation. I think the situation has to be taken into account, because even though the stats say it may work X times, it may not work X times in that situation. Which is why football coaches aren't usually engineers - because they have a feel for the situation that goes beyond numbers (like Joe Pa's by the number STUPID 2 point conversion attempt in the same game). Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong.
October 26th, 2009 at 7:33 PM ^
I think it's time for a mass cull, many of the people here should definitely stick to lurking, and would be right at home on Hineygate. This board needs to be reborn like a phoenix, I'll even pay a $1 monthly subscription if that's what it takes. My mediocre level of posting should be the minimum.
October 26th, 2009 at 8:53 PM ^
I disagree. *MY* mediocre level of posting should be the minimum.