24/7, Rivals, ESPN star ranking – limitations and insights
With the CFB season over, while hunting around for information, came across an interesting video that discusses the limitations of the "star" systems (24/7, Rivals, ESPN).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVXWCnfLnQM
In brief: the more tangible measurements are important in the role, the better the predictive value – so 4/5 star RBs generally are more likely to be very good/great RBs in the NFL. But other positions like QB and LB – this doesn’t work as well. Longtime readers would know some of these points, but it is well done and liked the use of the Kaskey Kids football guys. (Too bad the company no longer has a license for the Wolverines)
Finally, the scoring system of some systems were aimed originally at the notion of getting drafted in the NFL, not necessarily how well they would play in college and in the NFL. Brian Cook noted this in a recent MGopodcast that the system is flawed as shown by recent UM results - missing the potential and/or the importance of the right training and coaching.
For fun, 24/7 composite ranking of recruiting classes under Jim Harbaugh:
- 2024: 15th
- 2023: 17th
- 2022: 9th
- 2021: 13th
- 2020: 10th
- 2019: 8th
- 2018: 22nd
- 2017: 5th
- 2016: 8th
- 2015: 37th
https://eu.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2024/01/0…
January 28th, 2024 at 4:47 PM ^
It's not that simple. Networks & coaching trees matter a lot for hires.
And consider the Jamey Chadwell/Coastal Carolina story as a counter factual. The Athletic had a piece a while back that detailed how certain SEC programs started monitoring their offer list as a short cut for identifying under the radar talents.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^
The 2015 class is understandable. We had to wait until end of December to hire JH.
Not sure what happened in 2018, maybe went after too many 5* guys and came up short??? But as people point out, the class outperformed many others.
The interesting run of 2016-2022 (excluding 2018 - between 5 and 13, averaged about 9th). That is reasonable given the pre-NIL days and SEC oversigning, plus a 9 year run w/o a win over Ohio.
The 23 and 24 classes clearly show a bit of a shift downward, which is the negative recruiting that impacted us when JH started to shop around (after 2021 season). I fully expect Sherrone to get us back to the 7 to 10 range, which means a few more 4 or 5 stars per year.
The negative recruiting was going on from the start but JH called them jive turkeys. Wasn't until after 2021 and the wasted trip to Minny that the rumors had any truth.
Bless Jim for all of the 40-3 and a NC but ready to move on!
January 28th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
Not sure what happened in 2018, maybe went after too many 5* guys and came up short???
Be careful of assuming that our staff is relying on recruiting rankings to make its decisions about whom to offer.
That class was very good for us. 247 and the rest simply dropped the ball that year.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
Going simply by star ratings from the various services leaves out a lot of important information about recruits AND the cfb team they go to. The star ratings seem to match measurables and production, combine those with a recruits play against perceived competition and spit out some range of ratings for the recruit that is narrowed down by in person scouting (of the top players). They go back to previous recruits at the position to compare and/or contrast skills, but those previous recruits tend to be the highly successful ones that end up in the NFL and the previous recruits who ended up as busts are disregarded. Also disregarded, or not even considered, is the level of coaching a recruit has received up to that point and therefore what level of development, depending on the position, a recruit has reached.
That’s why the star rating system is inherently flawed from the beginning. You can have two very similar recruits (measurables and production) and one will be a five star while the other gets listed as a middling four star, but the four star kid can actually have a much higher ceiling available to reach. The same with high four stars versus low four to three star recruits. The higher ranked kids lead to highly ranked recruiting classes but the potential of lower ranked recruiting classes may be higher. And that’s where the college coaching and development takes over.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
That 2022 class will likely produce 4 first round picks (Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Will Johnson, Colston Loveland). And Derrick Moore ought to be an early pick also.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:41 PM ^
Michigan has been very good at (1) talent evaluation and (2) development of players. Michigan has underperformed in reeling in the higher end players.
And it is not just that Michigan really preferred guys that were underrated by the 247/Scout/etc. That was sometimes the case. But many other times there where high 4 stars and 5 stars that Michigan wanted but did not get.
So there is room for improvement in reeling in high 4 and 5 star guys that are at the top of their recruiting board.
January 28th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
Totally agree with this, however I feel football in a sense might become like basketball where seniors and 5th years really give a team the best chance at a title because they know the system they play in and are developed. Transfers of course play a part too, but I think Jim showed a new way to play college ball where you can have solid teams year in and year out if you minimize transfers from your roster and build depth to avoid injuries and keep everyone happy. The Saban way of all 5 star teams winning titles could (and should) become a thing of the past…
January 28th, 2024 at 2:06 PM ^
Saban gathered in a ton of five stars and high four stars relative to all but a few other programs, but what really solidified Alabama at the top of cfb for so long was the development of those players. Some other teams could compete with Alabama every so often in recruiting, but only a few of them could realize the potential of those players they got and actually beat Alabama on the field. Saban and his coaches that he gathered were the best at developing players for a long time.
That is where Jim Harbaugh was the best as well, and was finally realized in the 2021-2023 seasons.
That’s also where Smart at Georgia is good. Combine that with a high level of recruiting and you have the makings of another Alabama type dynasty.
Day’s approach to coaching and recruiting at OSU is more focused on the recruiting wins than on real development of the players across the board. He can win a ton of games and maybe have great teams on occasion, but with the method he is employing OSU will never be dominant from season to season like Alabama was and Georgia is now.
January 28th, 2024 at 2:17 PM ^
Most top 5 QB’s in a class don’t pan out to their expectations. Most Michigan HS QB’s if ever pan out to top level NFL players.