Space Coyote on the 3rd and goal pass to the 5
This play was talked about a lot, and not just here. This is SC breaking it down, why the throw didn't go into the end zone.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:53 PM ^
Wilson has two routes. The one to the back of the end zone is going to be covered by the linebacker running back with him, so instead he sits near the goal line.
He's open if Bell makes the right adjustment and stops closer to the hash mark.
It all looks very tight to me, but JJ can fit it in a tight window.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
Maybe it’s my untrained eyes, but no part of that video tells me that Wilson is going to be well covered by the LB. They’re at the same depth when Wilson hits the goal line and I’ll take my chances on him reaching the back of the endzone before the LB does.
We see teams target the back of the endzone frequently and give their guys a chance to make a play on the ball.
But Wilson can’t run the deep route because he’ll be covered 1-on-1 by a LB? I just can’t make sense of that one.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:34 PM ^
I hear you. Just saying it as I understand it from SC's video.
Roman is only 6 feet, so he gets there first one would assume, but maybe that throw for JJ is a lot harder to get it over the LB and not take Roman out of bounds.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
agree. if wilson and bell are indeed the only two options, that LB has them both covered all by himself. awful play design.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^
Well, Bell wasn't supposed to be there. He's in the wrong place. That's not the design.
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:30 PM ^
It's like people didn't watch the video
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:44 PM ^
Or read any of the comments explaining it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:47 PM ^
I don't know what read Schoonmaker was for JJ, but he seems like the guy to throw to here. If he catches that, he's got a full head of steam and there is only one MSU defender there to make an open-field tackle.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:55 PM ^
He wasn't a read. It was Wilson or Bell or bust. Or in this case, Bell and bust.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
If that was the case, I can't say I'm a fan of this playcall. Schoon's always got be an option.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
Very good explanation. Thanks.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
eh. it's just a shitty play. the receivers are all at about the same depth. pretty easy to defend that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
It's all very clear in stop and go motion. Bell needed to adjust his position to outside the hash marks and draw the MSU defender with him, which would've opened the pass to Wilson in the end zone. At the time of JJ's throw, you could basically draw a straight line to connect JJ, Bell and Wilson. That's not good. Bell didn't finish his route and if he did it was a throw to the end zone and possible TD.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:29 PM ^
Thanks, great analysis. Seems like this is fixable and I'm sure they're on it
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:58 PM ^
Ok, this is a good explanation...
But I'm not sure I agree with all of SC's diagnosis. He knows a lot more about football than I do, but I'm not sure the explanation fits.
Here's a couple screen caps from the skycam feed ESPN has archived.
This is the moment after the snap. At the snap, Michigan's motion has shown MSU to be in zone coverage, but there are two non-DL players lined up right over center. At the snap, they both bail into zones. Notice: JJ is looking right at #4, watching him run into a deeper zone space into the endzone.
This appears to be his key read. He sees #4 sink deep, and then he immediately rares to throw. Here's the moment he's about to release. Note the time: from 3:01 to 3:00. Less than two seconds from the read to the throw. His decision was immediate.
SC's argument is that Bell is supposed to drift outside. That argument makes some sense, but the problem is this: JJ is already in the process of making the throw as Bell is digging his feet into the ground. He does not have time to drift outside.
Meanwhile, Wilson doesn't look like he's settled horizontally yet. Here's the moment after release.
Notice that Wilson is still running across the field at this point. Wilson doesn't stop moving until after the ball is thrown.
And, we can note, there *is* a window here that McCarthy could have hit if he had aimed at where Wilson was going to be.
But I don't think that window was an option. It looks to me like the play called for McCarthy to read #4 and make an immediate throw. The short dropback and immediate throw supports this.
Why did it work this way? Well, my guess is that SC is right about Bell's route; it's not supposed to be that short. I would speculate that JJ wasn't expecting Bell to be covered by another underneath LB--perhaps the LB dropping signified 3-deep coverage which they would think would give Bell space to drift into the end zone.
I'm not a pro here, this is my .02 only. But it looks to me like JJ is reading the deep coverage and that his read quashed any throw to the Wilson route regardless of where Bell drifted.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:23 PM ^
The third screen shot Wilson is open if Bells defender was elsewhere.
It's just hard to believe the play was designed to have 2 receivers in line like that. It seems there was a misread of the defense by someone somewhere. I don't know who misread.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:31 PM ^
I have absolutely no idea. But I'm still going to buy SC's explanation over this one.
1) I kind of want SC to be right because in his explanation, the problem is Bell messed up. In your explanation, the play call was doomed to fail because Bell was the only option and didn't account for the linebacker in that space...unless I'm missing something from your explanation.
2) SC never actually said Bell was supposed to sit and then drift. It did kind of come across that way, but I think really Bell wasn't ever supposed to come so far inside the hash. He was supposed to sit at the 5, but he wasn't supposed to ever curl in so much. Possible that SC just wasn't super clear in how he stated that.
3) You point out that Wilson is not set. If you look at the video in SC's tweet--and I am possibly really reaching here--it looks like Wilson tries to sit down when he turns but keeps moving because he suddenly sees a LB in his face...a LB he thought would be further to the hashmark.
4) Because Bell ran to the wrong spot, and JJ is so focused on just simply getting the ball out super fast, he just commits to throwing to Bell, knowing that Bell is in the way of Wilson. It was either that or pull the ball down. Pulling it down could have led to something great, horrible, or neutral. But he made his decision and it wasn't super risky.
5) Lastly--again, I might be really reaching--at the end of the play, Wilson gives a little hop in frustration, like he knew they missed a chance, especially a chance for him. Or he could just be mad at the play call that was a total bust. I know I was!
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:45 PM ^
1 - my intent is to argue that Wilson is option #1, but that the coverage eliminated him as a target. FWIW I don't believe he ever intended to hold horizontal position; he makes a sharp (for him) cut but his motion is always going to carry him toward the middle of the field theree.
2 - I can buy the argument that Bell was kind of in the wrong place, but that isn't what JJ was watching when he made the decision to throw. He made the decision based upon #4 dropping into a deep zone.
3 - see 1. He appears paused because he is pivoting through a cut, but he never has to "restart" to go inside, because he is always going to do that.
4 - I believe JJ committed to throwing to Bell but that Bell's position relative to Wilson was not a factor when the decision to throw was made. As soon as his eyes move off of #4 he begins his throwing motion; he knows he's going to Bell at that moment.
5 - Having spent some procrastination time skimming through the skycam video, I've seen several "frustration" hops from Bell. No sign that he's being a selfish teammate, he just wants to win. He may have gone to the wrong place, but with the way the coverage developed, I don't think he had a realistic chance to score.
Good discussion points.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:31 AM ^
Yeah, this play should have been practiced more. I could get more specific, and make paragraphs about it. But I'll just leave it at saying there's something troubling me about this years passing game.
November 2nd, 2022 at 11:30 PM ^
Breakdown sports is an amazing site. I started visiting it a few weeks ago and have enjoyed it immensely, props to SC! Love the content, please continue improving our lives!
November 3rd, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Good stuff!
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:59 PM ^
He says the receiver in the endzone should be open if the other receiver widens up, but to my eyes that's a pretty tight window between two zone defenders even if the dude widens. I'm still not sure this is a good playcall.