Treating BPONE with Perspective
There have been far too many idiotic negative posts on this site and overreactions to the first two games. I just listened to Barton Simmons of 247 Sports say that he has Michigan 4th in the B1G East behind MSU as of right now because "MSU has an identity" (yes this was recorded after their loss to ASU).
The negative attitude around this program, both locally and nationally, is ridiculous. Michigan won handily in their first game DESPITE making several mistakes. They won their second game against a good and tough opponent despite making even more mistakes offensively.
When you can fumble 3 times in one game and have a TD called back incorrectly while playing a team who is made to punish those mistakes and still win...that's a great sign. For the team to be able to overcome that and still come out victorious says even more than a loss.
Both MTSU and Army are weird teams with their playstyle and are not the "cupcake" teams like an Akron, UCONN, or Central Michigan. Michigan still won both games and pretty much everything that held them back in those games are fixable.
Keep in mind these first two games were also without our best WR, starting LT, injured DT's, and an obviously hurting QB. The defense has honestly been fantastic given the circumstances they've had to play under (triple option, fumbles). The offense has been an adjustment, but I think they are much closer to the offense we saw in the 2nd quarter of the MTSU game than they are against Army.
Take care of the ball, get some players back from injury, and work out the kinks in the new offense and this team will be fine.
Even if they lose Saturday, the season isn't over. It's only the 3rd game of the year and their first road game against a top 15 opponent. Last year when Michigan went into The Game at 10-1, they still had tough games against Northwestern and Indiana.
This is college football, weird shit happens all the time and you will have frustrating games/wins. The important thing is that Michigan is 2-0 and the framework has been done for this team to truly do something special this year. Just gotta execute, and it starts with Wisconsin.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
Duke crushed MTSU last weekend and MTSU plays Iowa this weekend so we’ll see how that goes. And A LOT of people on this blog predicted UM would blow out Army and said Army was overrated. However, now that the game is over, Army suddenly is Alabama.
Also, I don’t think DPJ would’ve changed the offense the first two weeks. DPJ is going to get his receptions but having him on the field was not going to change ZC’s 33 rushes. However, having DPJ as a punt returner is huge.
We’ll see how this weekend goes but so far speed in space has been no space run up the gut.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Except that DPJ catches the deep ball intended for Bell in the first quarter and then ballgame.
Yes, DPJ matters a lot.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
Or maybe DPJ is running faster so Patterson leads him further and throws the same really-good-but-miss-by-a-literal-fingertip ball relative to the receiver and it's still incomplete.
You can't play that game, man. All things are not equal.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
Reggie gets it man.
September 17th, 2019 at 8:01 PM ^
Reggie is a good poster for sure, but Patterson hits DPJ on that deep ball. They were money all of last year. Patterson was throwing that ball to where DPJ would have been.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
This is what I've been saying to people the whole time.
The sky is not falling.
We've looked not great through the first two games, but a very large component of that is bad luck, coupled with some easily corrected boneheaded errors. If we can play ugly and win, imagine what we can do when we don't play ugly.
The strategic concerns, I get, but this is a brand new offense and a brand new coordinator. I think they'll work it out.
Also, the term "BPONE" is the worst thing Brian has done since... ever. Just stop it already.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
As far as I can tell going back multiple years, we play ugly on purpose by pretending 3 yards and a cloud of dust is still an effective strategy for winning high level football games. This makes it hard to "imagine what we can do when we don't play ugly" because I have seen no evidence that our coaches are interested in that. I mean they stold Army's strategy which they employ specifically because they can't compete with the big boys.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
I mean level of play aside, the injury report for this week screams BPONE to me.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
This right here. I was feeling pretty good about things assuming the Bye week did what it does for pretty much every other team in the country. Now it looks like our known issues have gotten worse and additional injuries have taken place. If we are without 3 or 4 of the players being discussed than we are basically looking for a miracle this weekend. I'm not really sure how you escape the BPONE if those injury projections are accurate.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Exactly, going into the bye week I think some of us were hopeful that getting DPJ and Runyan back would be a boost to the offense, and now we are hearing neither might play in addition to Mayfield, etc. Missing both starting tackles if that happens when we thought we were going to be getting one back is the epitome of BPONE. Also UM never being able to get a healthy Black, Collins and DJP at the same time is just depressing.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
We have already seen Shea's peak. That's true IMO.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
Even if that's true (and I doubt it), that peak is high enough to win every game on the schedule provided our defense performs well.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Yeah, that peak actually isn't too bad if true. S&P+ rated Shea as the best passer in the conference last year and ESPN's advanced QBR stat had him as #8 in the nation. Granted, that efficiency was heavily bolstered by opponents expecting us to run on every play, but he was a really accurate passer last season. People are freaking out about his poor play while injured for 1 1/2 games and forgetting that he was an accurate passer for most of last year.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
User name checks out for head composition.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
TRUST THE COACHES
September 17th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
I would be nice to beat the shit out of a team... 2015 NW; 2016 All games played; too bad the season ended before Thanks Giving.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
Game 3 is Saturday. We will get more data on this team. If they continue to look dysfunctional on offense then there’s more credulity to the BPONE crowd. If they clean things up and kick the badgers asses, we will have more data towards the optimistic crowd. Would be nice if we could all stop acting like we know what’s going to happen for the next 10 games based on 2 games.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
Generally correct.
I disagree that MTSU is "weird", in a different class, or tangibly different than CMU or UConn.
I hate that you brought up injuries. None of our problems have been because of injuries, QB included. And every team has injuries. That's excuse-making.
College football is fun. These are all young adults, very few of them will ever play this game professionally. It's a mistake-riddled sport. Two weeks ago, every B1G team looked like a Top-10 team. 3 days ago, they all looked like dog shit. The swings can be violent.
We've seen (what I hope is) the floor of this team. We haven't yet seen anything remotely approaching the ceiling. It will show eventually. For the first time this season, we're going to see a Michigan team that's been browbeaten by media and fans of every school including their own. A team that finally has an intimidating opponent in front of them, one worthy of their attention and motivation.
(*whispers*: Take the points)
September 17th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
Injuries aren't an excuse, as every team gets them and deals with them, but Shea's definitely been affected by his injury in his performance, so yes some of our problems have stemmed from that. Also there's good reason to think DPJ on punt returns and Runyan at LT change some of what we saw vs Army.
Again, It's not an excuse for poor peformance, you have to win regardless of injuries - that's why you build depth and recruit well. But to say they haven't in some way caused some of the problems we've seen on the field is misleading IMO.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
That would be a reason for hope if both guys were definitely going to play. But instead now we are talking about the possibility of still missing DJP, in addition to both starting tackles.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
Injuries have not caused the problems we've seen on the field. The guys on the field have caused the problems we've seen on the field, and there's no guarantee their replacements wouldn't have made mistakes of their own.
That's 100% excuse making. Carry on.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Ok Reg, I tried. Agree to disagree.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
I agree with you to a point. That being said, a starting QB with an oblique injury not being able to run or throw at 100% is something that would cause problems for most teams. I know it's hard to believe when we have seen OSU's backup QBs come in and light it up time and again, but that's not the norm. It has me convinced that the OSU sold their collective souls to some supernatural being. Personally I'd like to know when that contract is up.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Just to wrap this up. I know Patterson was hit and is dealing with an injury. I haven't seen one shred of evidence that his throwing is affected nor his running. He thrown 29 passes in each game. They never slowed him down. All three plays in 2OT against Army were passes. They didn't look any more off target than ever before.
He's completed 62.1% of his passes through two games.
Last season, he completed 64.6% of his passes.
His Sophomore year at Ole Miss, he completed 63.8% of his passes.
This is who he is. The assumption that healthy Patterson is going to pop out of the woodwork and start dealing is EXCUSE MAKING. His run issues are not injury related. He/they/somebody did the exact same thing all of last year. Saying he didn't pull wide open read options because of an injury is EXCUSE MAKING.
Fin.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:59 PM ^
His YPA in 2017 and 2018 were at 8.7 and 8.0, respectively. He's currently at 7.1.
I think the injury is definitely impacting his long ball. At least I hope that's what's going on...
September 17th, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
Small sample size is a real thing. It could be the injury or he could be playing poorly because he focused on golf instead of FB all summer. Cherry picking numbers can't prove or disprove either option.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
Everybody complained about his (consistently underthrown) long ball the entire season last year. It's gotta be the obliques.
September 17th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
Unless I am mistaken Patterson was actually the most accurate deep ball passer in the conference last year according to the advanced stats, I believe that was even mentioned in one of the preview articles on here before the season
September 17th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
According to PFF, I believe that's correct. I will also find you 7,000 fan posts from last year bitching about his deep ball accuracy, which is what I said, and it's no different than this year, except now we're leaning on the excuse.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^
I always trust angry fans instead of statistical data when trying to form opinions.
September 17th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
Please cite the statistical data you have that shows Patterson is less accurate due to an oblique injury?
September 17th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
About the injuries, at some point it isn't an excuse and is just reality. If, and I understand it is an if, we are going to Madison and DPJ, Runyan, Mayfield, and Dwumfour aren't playing, that may just not be a winnable game. It wouldn't be an "excuse," depth is part of what makes a good team. Agreed it is part of the game, but if you lose that part of the game you are going to have a tough time winning games. It isn't an excuse, it is a tip of the cap to Wisconsin. You can only lose so many key contributors before you are just going to get drilled against good teams.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
We supposedly have two NFL draft picks on the field at WR. We can't beat friggin' Wisconsin without three? Excuse making.
When we trot out Hayes and somebody else at tackle, we can start making excuses for that. The OP was talking about previous weeks. Army and MTSU would both trade any lineman on their roster for Mayfield or Hayes. They were not the reason we couldn't hang onto a football. Or throw to uncovered guys on the perimiter. That's excuse making.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Fair. I am not making excuses for the previous two weeks. Even with the injuries we have had neither the MTSU nor the Army game should have been as close as they were. I am just saying that injuries can completely derail a season. We would certainly not be the first team that it has happened to. If we kick it off against Wisconsin down three offensive starters with two them being our starting offensive tackles and the other being a presumed early round draft pick at receiver.... I'm not sure at that point. Punchers chance, yes. But Wisconsin is a good football team. They will have a say in things too.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Fair. Respectfully, politely, for both you and Never Punt:
Neither of us are fully healthy (nor any other opponent we'll see all season) and all we can do is see who wins with what both teams have on the field. You get no retroactive credit for your injuries. Maybe the hypothetical makes you feel better, but it's an excuse and it changes nothing. MSU had a billion players out last season. We don't give a F. The team in green gained 94 yards and we laughed about it for a year. They said "INJURIES!" and we laughed harder.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Of course we laughed because it was f-ing hilarious.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Despite calling out the faulty logic of the OP I don't think the outlook of the team has changed that much. 9 or 10 wins was the most likely outcome before the season started and it is still the most likely outcome. The big different is that 8 wins now seems more likely than 11 whereas before the the season started I would have tilted the other way.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
Go out there and win. There is nothing to say until Saturday. That's it. If I recall correctly, Shea had not really kept until a certain home game last year where he broke off a big one. Feels familiar.
September 17th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
Do you really think Wisconsin won't be ready for that this year though?
September 17th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Soooooo, basically everything that I've already read here for the last week or so?
OT Season has become more interesting lately.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
Seems a little late for a snowflake thread from last week.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
Sorry, this team, given its potential, depresses me.
It shouldn't, as I have no literal stake in its success, and nothing changes win or lose. In the end, none of it matters. But I take it so personal to the point where it's not even fun anymore. Again, I shouldn't be so jaded. Sorry guys. I think the 911 dispatching, along with season after season of dong punches, has turned me into a cynical asshole.
September 17th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
So hilarious. You've put my disposition into words, except for the 911 dispatching.
My wife last night asked, "Is everything alright?"
Me: "Yeah, why?"
Wife: "You seem to be unhappy lately."
Me: "Really? Huh. I feel fine. Work is good. Kids are healthy. Weather is nice."
Wife: "Yeah, just seems like you're down and unhappy."
An hour later...
Me: "I wonder if it is Michigan football. That's the only thing that's changed in the past two weeks."
Wife: "Oh God, quit reading that blog."
September 17th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I feel comfortable sharing here because you guys all get IT.
I don't know why I let injuries and the whims of this team affect me when so much real life is happening, especially at my job. If they lose, they lose. Nothing changes. Except I will be in a shitty mood for a week. I've tried not watching live but I always end up looking at the score. Fuck.
September 17th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
It is because there is so much media coverage of sports teams, particularly Michigan under Harbaugh. It is hard to just proceed as usual after a loss because you are going to hear about it constantly for the next week. Irrational hot-takes, articles about potential replacements, radio meatheads just beating it to death. Losses never really end anymore. Even when you feel like you are just ready to move on and not care there is somebody there to advise you that no you're not and yes you do. When nobody cares about you like Michigan State, you get nudged by the Detroit outlets for a split second and Valenti does a quickly forgotten rant and then nobody cares. If we lose to Wisconsin national outlets will still be talking about "where does Michigan go from here" on Thursday of next week.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
I’m good at tuning all of the national media noise out. I only come here for Michigan-related news.
I think part of my obsession turning unhealthy is the advent of social media and constant information flow. In the past, we didn’t know about injuries or recruiting rankings.
In today’s landscape, information is like a drug and I want every intricate detail about the team. In reality, who cares? But I keep coming back, visiting this blog 30ish times during season, like a good addict.
September 17th, 2019 at 8:24 PM ^
I think it’s three things:
1) At the root of it is our desire to go back to a better place. It was simpler 20 years ago. Michigan mostly won and if they lost, we sucked it up and moved on. 20 years ago, we’d be so happy UM was 2-0. Now I’m reading about RPO schemes and bubble screens.
2). I agree with the media coverage angle. It’s changed so much. When I started remembering UM football, I.e. early 90s, my only other way to get UM football was hoping my parents wouldn’t stick around church too long so I could catch Inside Michigan Football. It was the only chance for highlights and if I missed, it was off to the next week.
3) Playoff and old BCS. That’s the pinnacle and if you don’t get there, it’s a failure. I mean, even if UM wins the big ten and misses the playoff, people will feel short changed. Used to be simpler (see number 1) when a 9-3 season was a success. Now heads are supposed to roll with that. It’s unfortunate.
I have found that watching the game with friends helps. Watching alone is terrible. I am thinking about watching BraveHeart during the OSU game (or Gone With the Wind because of the commercials)
September 17th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
Would this post be considered the first sighting of the elusive BPOPE?
September 17th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
I agree with you all around. The national media has been on the "F*** HARBAUGH" train since his first season, and will look at everything about the program through that lens.
Too many posters on this board has let it get to them. They have become unbearably toxic. It's all based in pettiness and jealousy. They cannot be happy with the program no matter what. May all the BPONErs and UNACCEPTABLEs be shot into space. This board and the world in general would be better off without them.
September 17th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
I watched Art Schlichter win here twice. TWICE. Life is shit and anyone who says otherwise is trying to sell you seat licenses.