Home
i'm an actor, not a reactor

Primary links

  • About
    • $upport (lol)
    • Ethics
    • FAQ
    • Glossary
    • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
  • MGoStore
    • Hail to Old Blue
  • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard FAQ
    • Michigan bar locator
    • Moderator Action Sticky
  • Useful Stuff
    • Depth Chart By Class
    • Hoops Depth Chart by Class
    • 2017 Recruiting Board
    • Unofficial Two Deep
    • MGoFlickr
    • Diaries, Windows Live Writer, And You
    • User-Curated HOF
    • Where To Eat In Ann Arbor
  • Schedule/Tix
    • Future Schedules (wiki)
    • Ticket spreadsheet
Home

Navigation

  • Forums
  • Recent posts

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

MGoElsewhere

  • @MGoBlog (Brian)
  • @aceanbender
  • @Misopogon (Seth)
  • @Aeschnepp (Adam)
  • @BISB
  • @EUpchurchPhoto
  • @FullOfTwitt (Fuller)
  • Hail to the Victors 2016
  • MGoFacebook
  • MGoPodcast
  • WTKA
  • Instagram

Michigan Blogs

  • Big House Blog
  • Burgeoning Wolverine Star
  • Genuinely Sarcastic
  • Go Blue Michigan Wolverine
  • Holdin' The Rope
  • MVictors
  • Maize 'n' Blue Nation
  • Maize 'n' Brew
  • Maize And Go Blue
  • Michigan Hockey Net
  • MMMGoBlueBBQ
  • The Blog That Yost Built
  • The Hoover Street Rag
  • The M Zone
  • Touch The Banner
  • UMGoBlog
  • UMHoops
  • UMTailgate
  • Wolverine Liberation Army

M On The Net

  • mgovideo
  • MGoBlue.com
  • Mike DeSimone
  • Recruiting Planet
  • The Wolverine
  • Go Blue Wolverine
  • Winged Helmet
  • UMGoBlue.com
  • MaizeRage.org
  • Puckhead
  • The M Den
  • True Blue Fan Forum

Big Ten Blogs

  • Illinois
    • Illinois Loyalty
    • Illinois Baseball Report
  • Indiana
    • Inside The Hall
    • The Crimson Quarry
  • Iowa
    • Black Heart, Gold Pants
    • Fight For Iowa
  • Michigan State
    • The Only Colors
  • Minnesota
    • GopherHole.com
    • The Daily Gopher
  • Nebraska
    • Corn Nation
    • Husker Max
    • Husker Mike's Blasphemy
    • Husker Gameday
  • Northwestern
    • Sippin' On Purple
    • Lake The Posts
  • Notre Dame
    • The House Rock Built
    • One Foot Down
  • Ohio State
    • Eleven Warriors
    • Buckeye Commentary
    • Men of the Scarlet and Gray
    • Our Honor Defend
    • The Buckeye Nine
  • Penn State
    • Slow States
    • Black Shoe Diaries
    • Happy Valley Hardball
    • Penn State Clips
    • Linebacker U
    • Nittany White Out
  • Purdue
    • Boiled Sports
    • Hammer and Rails
  • Wisconsin
    • Bruce Ciskie

Links of Note

  • Baseball
    • College Baseball Today
    • The College Baseball Blog
  • Basketball
    • Ken Pomeroy
    • Hoop Math
    • John Gasaway
    • Luke Winn/Sports Illustrated
  • College Hockey
    • Chris Heisenberg (Class of 2016)
    • College Hockey Stats
    • Michigan College Hockey
    • Hockey's Future
    • Sioux Sports
    • USCHO
  • Football
    • Smart Football
    • Every Day Should Be Saturday
    • Matt Hinton/Grantland
    • Football Study Hall
    • Football Outsiders
    • Harold Stassen
    • NCAA D-I Stats Page
    • The Wizard Of Odds
    • CFB Stats
  • General
    • Sports Central
  • Local Interest
    • The Ann Arbor Chronicle
    • Arborwiki
    • Arbor Update
    • Ann Arbor Observer
    • Teeter Talk
    • Vacuum
  • Teams Of The D
    • Lions
      • Pride of Detroit
    • Pistons
      • Detroit Bad Boys
      • Need4Sheed
    • Tigers
      • Roar Of The Tigers
      • Bless You Boys
      • The Daily Fungo
      • The Detroit Tigers Weblog
    • Red Wings
      • Winging It In Motown
      • On The Wings
    • Michigan Sports Forum

Beveled Guilt

Site Search

Diaries

  • New
  • Popular
  • Hot
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 1 day ago
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 2 weeks ago
  • Fan Satisfaction Index End of Season Bball Survey
    OneFootIn - 2 weeks ago
  • How likely are we to revert to the mean?
    Bo Glue - 2 weeks ago
  • It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan
    Communist Football - 2 weeks ago
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 583 views
  • 14 Months Ago: The Fire Beilein Threads.
    stephenrjking - 91 comments
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 61 comments
  • It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan
    Communist Football - 11 comments
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 6 comments

MGoBoard

  • New
  • Recent
  • Hot
  • Baseball's win streak up to 20; beats PSU 14-2 for series sweep
    2 replies
  • OT: Lazy Sunday NBA/NHL playoffs open thread
    20 replies
  • Chris Partridge Presser From This Afternoon, video
    8 replies
  • Beaubien No-Hitter Clinches Sweep of Maryland, 8-0 (6 inn.)
    7 replies
  • New in-state offer: 2020 CB Enzo Jennings
    11 replies
  • New in-state offer: 2020 TE/DE Braiden McGregor
    8 replies
  • META : Drupalgeddon2. Unpatched Drupal servers being hacked
    11 replies
  • UCF Knights unveil 2017 championship banner
    72 replies
  • OT: Whose shirt did I buy? Also, thanks for the shirt
    41 replies
  • OT - LSU Spring Game Currently on ESPN/SEC Network
    33 replies
  • Baseball's win streak at 19 after 11th inning walkoff over PSU
    16 replies
  • OT: RIP Verne Troyer
    56 replies
  • OT: Record Store Day 2018!
    34 replies
  • Notre Dame Spring Game: analysis from M n B, video
    117 replies
  • Michigan Mercies Maryland, Softball Wins 12-1 (5 inn.)
    18 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Baseball's win streak up to 20; beats PSU 14-2 for series sweep
    2 replies
  • Chris Partridge Presser From This Afternoon, video
    8 replies
  • UCF Knights unveil 2017 championship banner
    72 replies
  • OT: Lazy Sunday NBA/NHL playoffs open thread
    20 replies
  • OT: Record Store Day 2018!
    34 replies
  • New in-state offer: 2020 TE/DE Braiden McGregor
    8 replies
  • Game Day Condos - who's gonna buy one?
    76 replies
  • OT: Whose shirt did I buy? Also, thanks for the shirt
    41 replies
  • Beaubien No-Hitter Clinches Sweep of Maryland, 8-0 (6 inn.)
    7 replies
  • This Week/Weekend's Football Visitors
    51 replies
  • New in-state offer: 2020 CB Enzo Jennings
    11 replies
  • Baseball's win streak at 19 after 11th inning walkoff over PSU
    16 replies
  • Notre Dame Spring Game: analysis from M n B, video
    117 replies
  • OT - LSU Spring Game Currently on ESPN/SEC Network
    33 replies
  • Michigan Football Hype Video 2018-19 Season
    31 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Belleville coach Jermain Crowell mad at UM again
    244 replies
  • Police investigating Elysee Mbem-Bosse for death threat against Harbaugh
    224 replies
  • "Being Not-Rich at UM" Guide
    168 replies
  • Buckle Up
    159 replies
  • Semi-OT: What sports would you fix?
    158 replies
  • Elysee Mbem-Bosse disturbing tweets
    157 replies
  • Whats the Best Way to Make Flight Arrangements?
    149 replies
  • The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
    148 replies
  • What past season would you have liked to see an Amazon-style documentary on?
    121 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    121 replies
  • OT: best-selling musical artists by state of birth
    120 replies
  • Notre Dame Spring Game: analysis from M n B, video
    117 replies
  • No additional protest of Shea Patterson appeal by Ole Miss
    113 replies
  • NCAA changes rules to restrict James Doug Foug's super power
    107 replies
  • OT: MSU digs hole deeper, Engler adviser: Nassar survivor's claims of payout 'fake news'
    106 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››

Support MGoBlog: buy stuff at Amazon

lines

OT: Are you a degenerate gambler?

By JeepinBen — March 28th, 2013 at 11:26 AM — 60 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • degenerates
  • funny
  • gambling
  • lines
  • N/A

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/are-you-a-degenerate-the-quiz-to-end-all-quizzes.php

Todd Fuhrman has a funny quiz up today, to see how bad of a gambling problem you have. It's all in good fun, and I'm rather proud of my low score despite having at least 2 items in each section.

I figured the Board may get a kick of of it, as JamieMac, the resident gambling expert thought that his number wasn't so bad. Also, couldn't help but think of coverage on this site:

College hockey lines, junkie?

I scored a 37, how did you do?

  • 60 comments

The Line - What the heck is that?

By Blazefire — November 19th, 2010 at 12:45 AM — 27 comments
Filed under:
  • football
  • lines
  • Sports Betting

Introduction: Why post this obviousness?

I noticed the other day a poster had mentioned that 'the line' for the Wisconsin at Michigan game was Wisconsin -4, and they were confused as to how Michigan could be favored by four. Several posters corrected him, informing him that the -4 line means that Wisconsin is favored by 4 for betting purposes. After thinking about this for a moment, it occured to me that while most of us know this, I'm not sure WHY most of us know this.

I have never in my life seen a "beginner's guide to sports betting". Of course, I don't bet on sports, so I'm sure they probably exist, but for the majority of us that do not bet on sports, it's not something we're likely to come across. As such, it is perfectly reasonable that somebody might not get the concepts behind "lines". I'm not so much talking about how they're set, which JamieMac of Just Cover has done a wonderful job of going over before, talking about the practices of vegas oddsmakers and so on. No, I mean what they, and other sports gambling terminology means. As such, I've created a little diary here I hope that anyone who never really thought about the concept of "the line" will take a moment to look over.


Okay, fine, so what is a line, and how does it work?

Well... do you play golf?

No. I'm just a temporary personification of your target audience. I don't even know what golf is unless you decide I'm supposed to.

Shut up. You now know what golf is.

I know kung-golf.

You're not Neo, though. Moving on, in golf, one often will play with a handicap. Different leagues may calculate handicap in different ways, but the basics are this: A golfer's handicap is the number of strokes over par he is expected to finish on a given 18 holes, divided by a certain number, which changes based on the courses you've been playing. The intention of a handicap is to provide a golfer of lower ability a chance to "beat" par on the golf course.

This isn't helping.

Just wait. This is going to be rough and dirty, because I don't want to include too much math. If one golfer in a twosome has a handicap of 16, and the other has a handicap of two, that would indicate that on a standard par 72 18 holes, the first golfer would be expected to finish with a score of approximately 88, and the other a score of 74.

Rough and dirty twosomes? Lines are awesome.

Quiet. Let me speak. When you subtract each golfer's handicap from their raw score, it produces their handicapped score, which is used to determine the winner. So, in those conditions, if golfer one shot an 87, while golfer two shot his expected 74, golfer one would actually win the round with a handicapped score of 71, one under par.

And this applies to football because?

Because the lines are a form of handicap! The lines are vegas oddsmakers saying that, if we gave team one an advantage of X number of points, then it puts the teams on equal footing.

I still don't get it.

Okay. Work with me here. Lets go back to the numbers for the Wisky @ Michigan game: Wisky -4; Michigan +4. This is not an expectation of the outcome. They are not predicting that either team will win or lose by that many points.

But I though-

No. They're not. What they are saying is, "If Wisconsin were put in a 4 point hole, or Michigan were spotted 4 points, then the teams should be approximatly "on par". The difference between this and golf is that the teams should be on par with each other, rather than on par with the golf course.

So the line not a prediction of who will win or really even by how much, but a prediction of how to make the teams even?

Sort of. The important thing to remember is, the oddsmakers aren't trying to predict the outcome of the game. They're trying to generate betting. So Essentially, they're saying, "We think that on this field, at this time, Wisconsin is a better team by 4 points than Michigan. Do you agree or disagree?"

So when you bet against the line, you're not... betting on the game?

Not really. YOu're actually betting on whether the oddsmakers are right or wrong about the teams. Someone betting on Wisconsin is actually saying, "Wisconsin just destroyed Indiana, a team Michigan barely beat. They're more than 4 points better than Michigan." Someone betting on Michigan is actually saying, "Michigan is way improved over earlier in the year. I don't think they're four points worse than Wisconsin."

But isn't the answer to the question decided in the game?

Yeah, it is, but you're still betting on who will win or lose with the handicap, so you're still betting against the oddsmakers. Not against one team or the other. And even more worrisome... the oddsmakers are liars.

*gasp*

Yes, shocking, I know. that line they set... that's not really what they think would be an accurate handicap for the teams. If I were going to set a true handicap for the teams, I'd probably give Michigan abou a 7 handicap versus Wisconsin. If you added a touchdown to Michigan's final score, I think they'd come out tied in an average game.

So then... the point of a line?

To get you to bet. To get you either nodding your head in agreement or shaking it in disagreement with the oddsmakers, and putting your money where your mouth is.

I don't have a mouth.

Uhh... shut it anyway? Lets sum up:

The line is not a means of picking a winner of a game, nor is it intended to do so.

The line is a form of handicap, suggesting that under given circumstances, adjusting the final score by X points (subtracting for the team expected to win or adding for the team expected to lose) would create a tie score. It is an attempt to put the teams "on par" with eachother.

The line is a betting tool, and is not intended to predict the score of the game.

Betting with or against the line is an agreement or disagreement with Vegas, not a belief or disbelief in one of the teams.

Got it?

Sorta... kinda...

Good. I'm going to bed. If you have more questions, talk to one of our resident sports gamblers. At least now you won't be confused when you see Minn +16 against an opponent and wonder how they could be favored.

  • Blazefire's blog
  • 27 comments

OT - Cheesiest Movie Lines

By Tauro — January 18th, 2010 at 3:34 PM — 87 comments
Filed under:
  • MGoBoard
  • bring the cheese
  • lines
  • movie

So the other topic about great movie lines had me thinking about the cheesiest lines ever uttered from a actor/actress' mouth.

These are the ones that made you groan in disdain, with the worse offenders being remembered as potential great lines..

For me, two such lines are:

"You had me at hello." Jerry Maguire

"No one puts Baby in a corner." Dirty Dancing

Others? Come on - bring on the cheese!

  • 87 comments
Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system
Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.