reuben jones

Previously: Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line.

21555794959_a0b2b35afe_z

QB having a bad time [Bryan Fuller]

Depth Chart

STRONG DE Yr. NOSE TACKLE Yr. 3-TECH Yr. WEAK DE Yr.
Rashan Gary Fr. Ryan Glasgow Sr.* Chris Wormley Sr.* Taco Charlton Sr.
Lawrence Marshall So.* Bryan Mone So.* Maurice Hurst So.* Chase Winovich So.*
Carlo Kemp Fr. Michael Dwumfour Fr. Matt Godin Sr.* Reuben Jones Fr.*

Amongst other far more important things, DJ Durkin's departure means the end of the irritating "buck" terminology. Michigan spent all off-season talking about this crazy DE/LB hybrid who would do all sorts of things at the WDE spot. They tried that against Utah, discovered that Mario Ojemudia was as good a linebacker hybrid as Craig Roh, and settled into a completely standard 4-3 for the rest of the season. (Yes, Michigan was "multiple" as all defenses are; all non 4-3 sets were exotic changeups.)

Michigan will continue with a bog-standard 4-3 this year, especially after Taco Charlton officially moved to weakside end in fall camp. There's zero reason to drop any of Michigan's defensive ends into coverage except as a very rare curveball.

Because when they are in coverage they are not feasting on souls, as one does.

WEAKSIDE DEFENSIVE END: IN SOVIET RUSSIA, TACO EATS YOU

Ah, screw it.

Rating: 5

23013028959_a6c8570f33_z

a bad time [Eric Upchurch]

TACO CHARLTON doesn't have the kind of returning production that generally warrants a FIVE out of FIVE ranking in this here preview, but counting stats, man. Counting stats. Because of the "buck" dream, Charlton got locked behind Chris Wormley until late in the year despite performing excellently in limited opportunities. This persisted so deep into the season that James Ross was called on to play WDE against Minnesota. It went badly; Charlton finally got a run out at his destination this season in the aftermath.

So while Charlton acquired a modest 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs, that was on just 43% of Michigan's snaps. A version of Charlton who gets 75% of Michigan's snaps instead of 43% has a 10 sack, 15 TFL season(!). And extrapolating those numbers linearly may actually understate his production: PFF has him the #1 returning end in pass-rush productivity. Number one. As in there are no better numbers to be:

After compiling only 11 pressures on 120 rushes in 2014, Charlton notched six sacks, nine QB hits, and 26 hurries (41 total pressures) on 229 rushes last season.

The #1 pass rush DE in the nation is almost certainly optimistic, but Charlton isn't an average player trying to get better. He's a very good player who is about to inherit a bunch more snaps.

In addition to already being pretty good, Charlton retains considerable upside. He didn't redshirt because reasons. He came to Michigan with a reputation as a sushi-raw moldable athlete, and despite making massive progress over the last three years the NFL still looks at him in the same way. Brugler:

Charlton certainly passes the eye test with a tall, long frame with a moldable body type to bulk up or slim down. … With his combination of strength, length and long-striding acceleration, there aren't many college offensive tackles who can control him, but scouts are looking for improved hand use at the top of his rush. Regardless, the traits make him a very attractive lump of clay that NFL teams will want to develop.

NFL.com listed Charlton amongst the top NFL prospects to watch going into this season because of his "freaky athletic traits and functional power to go with them".

Charlton can be capital-E Elite because his package of speed around the edge…

…and pocket-crushing strength…

…adds up to a tough handle for most OTs. Charlton's mostly a power rusher; the speed is more about getting to OL quickly and then using that power. He doesn't go around guys, but he's able to get upfield fast enough that a rip back inside is extremely viable.

He was also agile enough to deploy the occasional spin move in this situation. His combo of speed and power also made him a valuable bit of Michigan's stunt game a year ago. He was able to get to the point the drive man cleared out and power through an out of position OL with frequency.  Charlton brings raw power not far off Hurst and Wormley; many of his rushes last year featured him pushing the pocket closed.

ESPN has a good summary:

Power-based bass rusher that does a good job of using his long arms and explosive power to get into offensive linemen's pads, and then grinds through contact. Shows above average torso flexibility and strength to work through blockers while engaged. Keeps his feet and hands moving throughout. Flashes a quick inside move to cross the OT's face. Developing an effective push-pull move late in 2015. Lacks elite speed off the edge but shows above average closing burst. … Has some shock in hands. Should continue to improve array of pass rush moves because he has the required violent hands.

Brugler says he can "convert his edge speed to power before blockers are able to sink and anchor" and praises his overall strength and power before critiquing his hand usage. You can't teach the former. You can teach the latter.

The flip side of Charlton's remaining potential is the fact that he's not quite there yet. When we get to Ryan Glasgow in a bit I'll note that I didn't clip anything resembling a mental error from him over the course of the season. The same cannot be said for Charlton. Here he's to the top of the Michigan DL and seems to forget that he's part of a stunt and needs to contain Hackenberg:

He would occasionally hesitate, unsure of what to do, and get blocked as a result. He wasn't great at keeping smaller guys away from his knees. He was more prone to pick up a minus than Wormley or Glasgow. ESPN's profile notes that Charlton "needs to be more disciplined with gap assignments" and is "occasionally late locating the ball," and both of those critiques are on point. When NFL guys note his rawness they're not wrong.

Or at least they were not wrong when talking about Charlton's junior year. After a spring where he was close to unblockable and a fall camp that generated torrents of hype, it's clear everyone around the program expects him to blow up. That includes Charlton himself:

When you’re rushing against [Bredeson], not to say that he gives you problems, but is there anything that he does that maybe is a challenge for you, specifically?

[smiles wide]

I don’t want you to dog a guy, but what is it he does that’s good?

“He’s a guy who has good hands, strong hands. Once he latches on to you he does cause problems getting off. But for me…”

[smiles again]

Meanwhile the insiders are like dang. Lorenz says Charlton is "in line to blow up"; Webb has repeatedly referenced Charlton, not Wormley or Glasgow or Hurst or Mone, as Michigan's most impressive defensive lineman in fall camp. It's to the point where Webb is talking about Chris Wormley like this:

The newly crowned captain has taken his game up a notch, and after Charlton he has arguably been the top performing defensive lineman.

If Taco Charlton is better than Chris Wormley this year, quarterbacks might as well show up wearing a jersey that reads "MEAT PASTE."

It's tough to project Charlton's numbers since there are only so many counting stats to go around and Michigan's entire front seven will clamor for them. Really good DEs can get shut out through vagaries of circumstance—Bosa had just five sacks a year ago. Charlton should get a ton of pressures, many of which turn into numbers. Double digit sacks are a strong possibility, and those TFL numbers should easily crest double digits and approach 20. He won't last long in the draft.

[After THE JUMP: Some guy. Rashad? Something like that. ]

You can jump now Steve:

Michigan has finally posted their rosters with new weights and freshman numbers and such. I haven't included spring weights this year since they didn't update those on the roster; listed weights as recruits or early enrollees are in the 2015 column, with the recruits in parentheses. The exits of Canteen and Pallante have been covered.

Remember the rules:

  • All weight gain is burly muscle that won't slow them down AT ALL
  • All weight loss is a guy in the best shape of his life who's going to do crazy fast things as his new svelte self.

NEW RULE FROM NOW UNTIL THE END OF HARBAUGH:

  • Believe any of it at your own risk. Harbaugh wouldn't hesitate to list Nate Johnson 6'11"/375 pounds if he thought the confusion might gain a yard this year.

TO THE SPREADSHEETS:

Quarterbacks
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Shane Morris 201 204 209 208 213 +3 +4 +5
Wilton Speight 234 235 239 243   +5 +4
Alex Malzone 218 222 224     +2
John O'Korn 209 215     +6
Brandon Peters       205 216     +11
Running Backs
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Drake Johnson 213 211 207 210 201 -2 -1 -9
De'Veon Smith 224 220 228 228 228 -4 +8 -
Ty Isaac 225 240 228 230   +3 +2
Karan Higdon 190 189 189     -
Kareem Walker       210 207     -3
Chris Evans       (181) 200     (+19)
Kingston Davis       225 245     +20
Fullbacks
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Bobby Henderson 227 236 240 245 242 +9 +9 -3
Khalid Hill 258 252 252 263 263 -6 +11 -
Henry Poggi 260 270 273 266 257 +10 -4 -9
Receivers
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Amara Darboh 212 211 216 215 215 -1 +4 -
Jehu Chesson 196 197 207 200 203 +1 +3 +3
Drake Harris 176 174 181 188   +5 +7
Maurice Ways 195 205 210 217   +15 +7
Grant Perry 185 184 196     +12
Kekoa Crawford       (175) 195     (+20)
Ahmir Mitchell       205 205    
Nate Johnson       (174) 185     (+11)
Eddie McDoom       (170) 180     (+10)
Tight Ends
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Jake Butt 237 249 248 250 250 +12 +1 -
Ian Bunting 227 243 252 252   +25 -
Tyrone Wheatley 260 291 276     -15
Zach Gentry 230 244 244     -
Nick Eubanks       (208) 236     (+28)
Devin Asiasi       (253) 287     (+34)
Sean McKeon       230 240     +10
Offensive Line
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Kyle Kalis 302 298 292 305 305 -4 +7 -
Erik Magnuson 285 294 296 305 305 +9 +11 -
Ben Braden 318 322 331 322 335 +4 - +13
Patrick Kugler 287 299 297 302 303 +12 +3 +1
David Dawson 297 296 309 316 325 -1 +20 +9
Mason Cole 292 287 305 305   +13 -
J. Bushell-Beatty 319 319 325 311   +6 -14
Grant Newsome 280 300 318     +18
Jon Runyan Jr. 275 304 304     -
Nolan Ulizio 293 291 291     -
Michael Onwenu       (367) 350     (-17)
Stephen Spanellis       (330) 335     (+5)
Ben Bredeson       (280) 310     (+30)
Defensive Line
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Ryan Glasgow 300 296 297 300 299 -4 +4 -1
Chris Wormley 289 295 300 303 302 +6 +8 -1
Matthew Godin 280 286 287 288 294 +6 +2 +6
Taco Charlton 270 275 273 285 272 +5 +10 -13
Maurice Hurst 270 282 281 282 282 +12 - -
Chase Winovich 220 227 235 245   +15 +10
Lawrence Marshall 241 238 250 268   +9 +18
Bryan Mone 312 325 320 310   +8 -10
Shelton Johnson 225 212 212     -
Reuben Jones 225 222 222     -
M. Dwumfour       (282) 300     (+18)
Rashan Gary       (290) 287     (-3)
Ron Johnson       (221) 245     (+24)
Linebackers
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Mike McCray 237 241 242 240 248 +4 -1 +8
Ben Gedeon 236 240 241 248 247 +4 +8 -1
Wyatt Shallman 237 239 244 245 242 +2 +6 -3
Jabrill Peppers 202 205 208 205   +6 -3
Noah Furbush 210 217 242 238   +32 -4
Jared Wangler 219 230 231 229   +12 -2
E. Mbem-Bosse       (228) 215     -13
Carlo Kemp       250 255     +5
Devin Gil       (204) 230     (+26)
Devin Bush Jr.       220 232     +12
Josh Uche       (217) 217     ( – )
Safeties
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Delano Hill 205 205 204 212 215   - +7 +3
Dymonte Thomas 190 193 191 195 199 +3 +2 +4
Tyree Kinnel 200 201 206     +5
Khaleke Hudson       (204) 205     (+1)
Josh Metellus       (187) 204     (+17)
Cornerbacks
Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
Jourdan Lewis 170 175 176 175 186 +5 - +11
Channing Stribling 171 178 178 181 175 +7 +3 -6
Jeremy Clark 205 205 205 210 206   - +5 -4
Brandon Watson 188 189 191 203   +3 +12
Keith Washington 175 170 170     -
David Long       (170) 187     (+17)
Lavert Hill       (173) 168     (-5)

[Things of GREAT IMPORTANT after the JUMP OF GREAT IMPORTANCE thing.]

Backed up near their end zone after a 4th down stop, with Brandon Peters under center, the white team is looking to catch the defense with some play-action. What they catch is a pretty simple blitz, an iffy matchup in pass pro that goes badly, and a true freshman running for his life in the endzone. Let's dig into it.

THE PLAY: A pretty normal Mike blitz that gets interesting in the details.

image

The MLB came up trying to time his blitz, then blitzed the frontside A gap. The SAM has the tight end (Y) in man to man, as do the CBs with their respective wide receivers, and the free safety is playing the deep cover. The WLB has a run gap, and the short middle zone (which ends up being the RB). On the other side the Rover (strong safety) is responsible for the fullback.

So this is a variant on the base cover 1 ("City" in Brown's 2013 Boston College playbook).

image

I think "TILT" means the SAM has the edge if the TE stays in to block, and the TE if he goes out in a pattern. But there was some weirdness here, because the T and A are going to end up in the same lane.

[After the JUMP: freshman going off script, two-gapping, or a DE option?]