aj dillon

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The good news is that the Athletic has hired damn near everyone so you can get coverage of all your teams in one place. Speaking as a beleaguered USMNT fan, they are best-in-class there as well.

Also good news: they're running a 40% off special if you use our link right here. No ads, no pop-ups, no clickbait. Even we can only say two of those three things.

Fumble numbers. We had the Mathlete run the numbers on Michigan's fumble rate and ahyup this is an absurd outlier. Here's a graph of fumbles lost on run plays during his D-1 college career (ie, Stanford and Michigan):

Over the years in his database the average teams fumble on 2.2% of plays and lose those 1.1% of the time; Harbaugh has been at 1.8% and 0.9%; this year it's 4.5% and 2.2%. So: Harbaugh teams generally fumble a little less than average and while that's probably just luck it is also luck, of the very bad and hair-pulling variety, that Michigan's losing fumbles at double the rate of an average team out of nowhere.

[After THE JUMP: Onwenu arises.]

MA RB AJ Dillon has flipped to Boston College, a school with some jive turkeys doing their edits.

Not everyone is going to understand or agree with my decision, I did what's best for me -> https://t.co/LdpTsP0R8q #DecideToFly pic.twitter.com/MmzEdjMKgy

— AJ Dillon (@ajdillon7) December 14, 2016

Watching an offensive player agree to play at Boston College is always a sad thing, but per Sam Webb they sold him on the opportunity to definitely play running back and Michigan said they said "90%" with a chance of linebacker. Meanwhile NM RB O'Maury Samuels's visit was postponed for an SAT retake, so his recruitment is obviously in some question.

Michigan is of course trying to reel in CA RB Najee Harris, the #1 recruit in the country. If they get him, this is a non-event. If they don't... eh, Michigan has Ty Isaac, Chris Evans, Karan Higdon, Kareem Walker, and Kingston Davis plus whoever they do end up bringing in this year. Dillon is an excellent athlete who is a coup for BC; Michigan looks like they'll be fine at RB for the next couple years either way.

Apparently the Pac-12 championship is tonight. Is this new? Have I never watched the Pac-12 championship before? I'm very confused. I thought I'd tell you in case you are unprepared for a Friday game.

Anyway:

Woods re-affirms

AL S J'Marick Woods, a wobbler, ceases wobbling:

"It was really hard to make my final decision because I like Arkansas a lot, but I am picking Michigan," said Woods.  "I just prayed about it and the Lord showed me signs.  I feel good about my future as a Wolverine."

He's an early enrollee so this should be a definitive end to his recruitment. There are two visit weekends before the dead period and afterwards he'll be in Ann Arbor. Kind of get the feeling the Arkansas/Mississippi State dalliances were manufactured to provide his school with an excuse to do some hat stuff.

Keeping Woods is important with Michigan's need at safety and the lack of other names on the board at the spot; Scout makes him sound a lot like Jeremy Clark:

Woods is a defensive back with great length. He is lean and will need to add weight to his frame when he gets to the next level. He could get a look at cornerback, but he is likely a free safety in college. His length is an asset in coverage and recovery.

I'll take another Clark.

All hands to the tweet decryption stations

Michigan's coaches are on the road this week, visiting anyone and everyone they're still recruiting. CA OL Aaron Banks lives in El Cerrito, California, and this may or may not mean anything.

I have an emoji for this.

Possibilities:

1. Harbaugh finally got his latte after like 15 minutes
2. Clash of Royale Strike level up
3. Banks is announcing for Michigan on the 9th.
4. Harbaugh's making telescopes? And selling them for profit? I guess?

It's times like these I wish Michigan had a TOOT TOOT ALL IN FOR THE GOVERNOR wink wink commit thing, like many schools do. Just a few hours prior to the above tweet, Lorenz reported that Michigan had little idea what Banks would do. Reports that Banks was not a take appear to be incorrect.

FWIW, Brice Marich hears that the in-home with Banks "went excellent and was very informative too."

Dominate the hyphens

Michigan's quest to dominate the state of Hyphen continues unabated after their setback with Brelin Faison-Walden. Next up might be MI DE Deron Irving-Bey, who is set to announce at the Army game. With just two visit weekends left before the dead period and one official visit in the books, some tea-leaf reading is possible:

• His list of six is really a list of four. He's visited Tennessee, plans to visit Maryland this weekend, and has been on the MSU and UM campuses many times for unofficials. Syracuse and Cincinnati are window dressing.
• Webb reports that he'll take an official to Michigan for their huge December 9th weekend. That should be his last in person recruiting contact before his commitment, since the dead period starts the 12th. In a dead period you can only interact on the phone or by text.

While you can't entirely rule MSU out since he's familiar with the program, Michigan is perceived to lead and gets the last crack. Also he has a hyphen in his last name.

Linebacker board static

Sorry for leaving FL LB Jordan Anthony off the recruiting overview post on Wednesday. That was an oversight only; Michigan is still expected to get him. That does rather complicate things in the projected class, which had MS LB Willie Gay on it and then did not when I inserted Anthony.

Despite that omission, Gay remains very high on Michigan. Per Lorenz, Partridge stopped in on Tuesday and Gay said it went "better than I would have ever thought," which is kind of a weird statement and also very encouraging. This is still in "believe it when I see it" territory. If Gay schedules an unofficial back to Ann Arbor, then I will start thinking it's happening. I remember Fletcher Cox and will not discount Mississippi State for an instate kid, ever.

Meanwhile, MI LB Antjuan Simmons decommitted from Ohio State, making that one guy's article about Meyer's recruiting coup look a bit silly. Do not expect Michigan to get involved. Simmons still appears salty about Michigan's lack of enthusiasm early in the process. Even after he started looking around and must have had an inkling that he was not going to end up in Columbus, his twitter feed was... uh... aggressive about Michigan.

This is mostly disappointing because I wanted this screenshot to be a wall of block Ms:

Seven out of eight wouldn't be bad. Webb's hearing Arizona may be Simmons's landing spot, which would be something. Notre Dame is also a strong contender.

NJ LB Drew Singleton will be at The Big Recruiting Weekend.

Rutger is fine, it's just the S that makes it a problem

Webb reports that the parents of TN DT Rutger Reitmaier are in Michigan's corner, and with Oregon in flux they will have a great shot to flip him. Reitmaier's dad has been on campus more than some committed recruits:

The elder Reitmaier made his way to campus for a game weeks before his son came up for an official visit.  It gave dad an opportunity to spend some quality one-on-one time with Harbaugh.  They built on that when the entire Reitmaier family came up for Rutger's official visit a few weeks ago.

A recent OSU offer may be the main competition if Reitmaier follows through with a visit.

Why the Herbert wobble is a thing

This is why:

“I want to play right away," he said when asked what he's looking for in a school.

“Miami says I can come in and play right away, Florida says that I can come in and play, and Michigan says that I have to come in and compete with [junior tackle Juwann Bushell-Beatty] and probably another tackle [current Michigan commit Joel Honigford].”

It is unrealistic that Miami and Florida don't have guys at least on JBB's level. If Herbert's takeaway from those two competitors is "I should go to another school," that sounds like the kind of reason that's not the real reason. He's the only guy in the class I think is a serious threat to voluntarily decommit.

Edges of the board still active

Marich also reports that CT CB Brandon Sebastian plans a mid-January official and that AZ S Isaiah Pola-Mao has tentative plans to official at some point during that month as well. That's good timing for Michigan, as a lot of questions about who will and will not be in the class will be resolved by the time either guy gets around to making a decision.

Meanwhile, chaos at Oregon has seen a number of their top prospects decommit or Explore Their Options; delightfully named OL/DL Popo Aumavae is one of them. He's setting up a suite of visits and he'd like Michigan to be one of them.

Obligatory Najee Section

Tom Van Haaren puts a not-at-all-completely-arbitrary chance on CA RB Najee Harris flipping:

Committed to: Alabama
Chance he flips: 50 percent
Toughest competition: Michigan

!!!

I like that number. It is a high number. Lorenz reports Harris will follow through on his plan to visit Michigan for The Big Recruiting Weekend. Like Irving-Bey, that should be the last in-person crack anyone gets at him before he enrolls early. (Or commits, in Irving-Bey's case.)

Etc.

Matt Wenzel interviews MA RB commit AJ Dillon, who missed a chunk of his senior season with a broken leg. He's taking some visits but it doesn't seem like a serious situation:

Dillon, who said he would have considered enrolling early at Michigan but his school doesn't allow it, will take his first of five allotted official visits to Boston College this weekend and then go to Ann Arbor the following week. He's also considering visits to Nebraska and Iowa, but nothing is arranged yet and he's still firmly committed to Michigan, which he's been watching from afar all season.

"I was really impressed with them, they're still doing great."

A Notre Dame visit would be something to watch out for given Dillon's family ties; I doubt that Nebraska, BC, or Iowa have the recruiting mojo to flip Dillon without an external bombshell named Najee.

Happy trails to TX LB Baron Browning, who committed to OSU. GA WR Jeremiah Holloman isn't really a happy trails since Michigan hasn't been on his list since shortly after his decommit almost a year ago, but if you're curious he just committed to Georgia.

Keep an eye on the FAU job. Bruce Feldman reports that Mario Cristobal is a candidate; if he gets it that would greatly aid Michigan's chances with Alex Leatherwood.

Brandon Brown lists the various guys who plan to enroll early. I was not aware of a couple of these names. For the record: JaRaymond Hall, Donovan Jeter, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Ben Mason, Benjamin St-Juste, Jaylen Kelly-Powell, J'Marick Woods, Donovan-Peoples Jones, Ambry Thomas, Tarik Black, Cesar Ruiz, and Najee Harris all plan to enroll early. Michigan should have room since they'll have a ton of guys who want to get done with school this semester so they can prep for the NFL draft.

FWIW, Brown has also dropped a couple hints that Rivals will give Solomon a fifth star when their next re-rank comes out. That would be a second; Scout gave him one after the first few games this year, and reports that CT WR Tarik Black denied that he ever named Alabama his top school.

Jedd Fisch visited FL WR Mike Harley in-home. Harley is a WVU commit who's probably flipping somewhere; Michigan was involved just before he went off the board.