aaron banks

See also: The defense

Resources: My charting, ND game notes, ND roster with oddly specific heights, CFBstats

Welcome back to the Respect-a-Bowl, the rivalry in which the coaches respect each other, the players like each other, the fans get along quite splendidly, the recruiting reporters nod at each others' excellence in early scouting, and everyone concurs ND athletic director Jack Swarbrick is the world's biggest putz.

Notre Dame fans say this because he nicknamed himself "Savvy Jack" for finding ways to Dave Brandon them and everyone he deals with for every possible nickel, then gloats about it. Michigan fans say it because he was the guy who pulled the series in the putziest way possible and played hardball when Michigan wanted to restart it. He didn't have to put these games on the same road/home schedule as Ohio State and Michigan State, he didn't have to play last year's as the season opener nor this year's game in the middle of the Big Ten season. In fact it would have worked out best for both parties to resume the game in September when we normally do—Notre Dame had a bye week when we played Army and played New Mexico when we had our bye.

But Savvy Jack can't call himself savvy if a deal works out for everybody. So here we are in late October, between two Big Ten East rivals, playing Notre Dame, coming off a bye with nobody in shouting distance of ranked for the rest of the year. Given Michigan's progression over the season and the Irish's weird lack thereof, I know an entire press box worth of people ready to point at laugh at the unlikeable fellow if his tactic comes back to bite him in the ass. And I'm kinda thinking it can.

The film: Georgia is ranked around where Michigan is in S&P+ and has some athletes at cornerback and MLB I thought would be a fair proxy for some of Michigan's more exciting guys. Everything here is going to be graded on a curve here because I usually don't chart against a defense this solid.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

I'm throwing out my charting this week for most of these guys since 12 total runs do not make for much of a sample. Stats aren't much use either because you already know what they tell you: against non-scrubs, Notre Dame's offense is getting the ball to very tall persons TE Cole Kmet (265 yards, 3 TDs, 10.6 YPT, 84% catch rate) and Boundary WR Chase Claypool (394 yards, 4 TDs, 84. YPT, 57% catch rate).

Claypool is Myles Boykin, basically a power forward who was so good at boxing out and collecting rebounds that they slapped a football jersey on him and taught him to go full soccer player when he feels contact from a defensive back. Kmet is an underrated receiver—an excellent route runner with a natural nose for the hole in zones—and an up-and-mostly-down blocker. Like Michigan's run game, ND's is very tight end heavy, and Kmet picked up 11 negatives in this game, only some of which can be explained by multiple false start penalties. Slot receiver Chris Finke (8.3 YPT, 68% catch rate) has 22 targets and probably as many good blocks. They'll have H-back TE Tommy Tremble (9 catches, 136 yards, and 2 TDs on 13 targets) on the field often as a third receiver, and use him more—from the USC game I watched he might be an underrated or just underutilized run blocker.

The #1 back in preseason, Jafar Armstrong missed another chunk of season and returned for one carry against USC (a four-yard loss). They're talking like he's 100% over the groin injury now and that's going to give them a run game, but Armstrong historically has been a quasi-receiver type. Lead/basically only RB in Armstrong's absence Tony Jones is on pace for 1,000 yards and is a fairly good receiver, but really he's just a guy who got more +s (and minuses) for blocking than anything he accomplished with the ball in his hands. He did get 176 yards on 25 carries (7 YPC) against USC, but on my viewing of that game I thought that was mostly on bad USC tackling.

Thus ends the high-usage skill position players. Nobody else has more than 13 targets, though freshman slot/field WR Lawrence Keys (6 catches, 7 YPT on 10 targets) had a Gallon-esque fade reception in this game. Nominal Field WR starter Michael Young didn't chart—he's at 2.1 YPT on 10 targets this year. Freshman Bradey Lenzy is a Calvin Bell Memorial end around track star (if you see #25 on the field yell "BASH!" please). Javon McKinley (200 yards and 3 TDs on 8 receptions on 11 targets) is the only outside guy besides Claypool who's over 6 feet, and McKinley's got exactly 1 catch for 11 receiving yards against teams not named Bowling Green or New Mexico over 3.5 seasons.

[after THE JUMP: Sad reminders of failed Michigan recruitments]

Bruh you gotta take that ring to Mount McDoom

enjoying the fact that this picture's filename is 0_0.jpg [Scout]

4* CA OL Aaron Banks is announcing in a few hours. The recruiting world's expectations: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. This is one invisible four-star recruit. Until yesterday he had got one Crystal Ball, that a year old from the weirdo who puts in a pick for every recruit in the country way early and then forgets about most of them.

One thing we can probably deduce from Banks's visit schedule: it's Michigan or Notre Dame. He took officials to those two schools and Oregon, which just imported a new staff. If Oregon was still in it he'd delay his announcement to catch up with the new guys. Cal and Stanford, the local-ish schools, aren't in it. There was some UCLA chatter after Jim Mora had an in-home, but he hasn't been to Westwood since this summer. Apparently that was the first time Mora had ever met Banks. That would be a weird way to pick up a commit.

FWIW, Lorenz says Banks is take and that he doesn't know what'll happen; Brandon Brown first said Michigan would pass but then backtracked on that; Wiltfong notes that ND has really been putting on a full court press, while Michigan sending Jay Harbaugh to close the deal instead of the head man could be construed as something other than all-out effort.

The most definitive opinion is from Scout's Greg Biggins, who feels pretty strongly that it'll be Michigan since "it's the only school he talks about" to the point where coaches from other schools on official visits mostly hear about Seoul Street's Korean street food, renovations to the IM building, and Stadium Boulevard being closed until spring. We have put a crystal ball for Banks to Michigan mostly because that's the most definitive take out there. Tom Loy, naturally, put one in for Notre Dame. Neither outcome would surprise.

[UPDATE: we've now flipped our CB to ND as Biggins reports that Michigan passed.]

DB cancellations

The perils of naming any visit list ever: CA CB Darnay Holmes and PA S Paris Ford will not be on campus. That's a minor bummer. Sam Webb says that Michigan is focusing on ND commit Elijah Hicks as their fifth DB at this point. As of a few days ago Hicks's imminent flip from ND had been downgraded to "up in the air" after a hard ND push. You'd think that 4-8 and not having a defensive coordinator would make it hard to push.

Brad Hawkins can get up

4* NJ WR Brad Hawkins is a rare prep-and-follow guy for Michigan who actually came through and joined the next recruiting class. I was surprised, and now I'm not.

You know it's a good WR highlight video when the wide open touchdowns are in the second half; that is a man who can go get footballs.

The above and news that Michigan might not have room for one of the four very good WR prospects they're pursuing means we can shelve Hawkins-to-safety talk for the time being. Wiltfong told the ND 247 site that Michigan had removed itself from pursuit of 4* IA WR Oliver Martin because they were more or less full at wide receiver, which is a very good sign for the three names other than Martin currently on the board. 4* CT WR Tarik Black announces in a week and 5* MI WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is an early enrollee whose last visit before a decision is to Michigan this weekend; only 4.5* AL WR Nico Collins looks set to take it to signing day.

Obligatory Najee Harris section

5* CA RB Najee Harris told Bleacher Report that he wanted to take all five officials before deciding, which... uh... probably not since that would mean two visits in addition to Michigan before the 12th. Cal is feasible because it's nearby, and it appears that the Bears did indeed host Harris. They sent him a party bus and everything. USC is maybe less realistic.

Anyway, that Bleacher Report article is yet another in which Harris's quotes about Harbaugh are eyebrow-raising, especially in direct comparison to Nick Saban:

"He's a legend in my area in a way," Harris said. "What Harbaugh did—to go to the NFL and do that, then go to college at Michigan and do that again—that's one of the best coaches."

He acknowledged Harbaugh and Alabama head coach Nick Saban are "extremely" different coaches but noted "they're both good people."

Harris observed Saban operates with a "straight business" approach, while Harbaugh is "juiced" and "full of energy." Most importantly, they share a penchant for developing winners.

That's the third article where the reserved Harris says some effusive things about Harbaugh. Will it be enough? Like Banks, nobody knows. Harris's mom has a twitter account that is very heavy on 'Bama stuff; Sam Webb's gut declared that people inside Schembechler think they lead. But nobody really talks to Harris outside the odd BR or newspaper article, so nobody's got a read.

You go to hell and you die, Georgia

Sometimes crystal balls are silly, like when Rutgers led on Isaiah Wilson's for four months

Georgia was a thorn in Michigan's side last year and they may be again. Unlike last year, location plays in Michigan's favor for 5* NY OL Isaiah Wilson. Alabama is perceived to be the main competition, but with the primary Bama 247 guy flipping his crystal ball to Michigan a couple days ago it appears the only thing standing between Michigan and Wilson is this weekend's official visit to Athens.

Nobody is talking about this outside of the Georgia sites because nobody expects much to come of it. Wilson told Adam Friedman* that his mind was just about made up a few days ago:

“The school I’m thinking of just seems perfect. That’s the best way I can put it. I’ll leave it at that. People can go on an do their guessing. I think I pretty much know where I’m going."

Always some small danger, but I'd be much more worried about Bama for an out-of-region recruit. To Wilson they probably look the same except one has Nick Saban and the other has Bootleg Nick Saban.

*[Yes, the guy who said Wilson was an OSU/Clemson battle earlier this year. This is a direct quote so Friedman's tendency to say CLEMSON EVERYTHING does not interfere.]

Meanwhile Michigan has a road game against Georgia (and Alabama, and apparently the rest of the SEC) for 4.5* GA DT Aubrey Solomon. Solomon just announced that he's going to spend that fifth official on the Bulldogs. Or not, and instead they'll spend it on Auburn.  He's already been to Bama and M; his January schedule will take him to USC on the 13th, Georgia or Auburn the following week, and Florida just before Signing Day. Right now it seems like Michigan is where he wants to go, but they've got to dodge a ton of bullets to get to the finish line. UGA 247 reporter Kipp Adams has it about right:

This is an all-out war. Every school should be worried about everyone.

I dunno, man. Auburn—which has not been involved so far—kind of seems like another southern option that might be a compromise between Michigan (where Solomon wants to go) and Somewhere Close (where mom wants him to be). USC does not fit this narrative, admittedly, but I go back to that recent interview where Michigan seemed to be the choice.

I though that about DaShawn Hand, too, so don't take that too seriously.

Reitmaier set to stick with Oregon?

There's a poster on Rivals's board who is clearly connected with TN DT Rutger Reitmaier; he asserts that after Willie Taggart's hire at Oregon Reitmaier looks set to stick with his commitment. Message board rando discounts apply but this guy in particular seems consistent and credible.

I wouldn't write him off just yet, since it seems clear where his parents want him. Reitmaier's dad talked with Sam Webb for a very long piece, which is usually a good sign. In it he's pretty open:

When Coach Harbaugh and Coach Mattison reached out to us and once I started talking to them and doing the research I'm like, ‘oh boy, this is a really good school, and obviously, the program is great.’ But I didn't realize how (great) on the academic side it is. So (what you’re) kind of trying to figure out as a parent is, you want to have him play where he wants to play, but also give some (perspective) to the youth that doesn't have experience.

Michigan probably doesn't have room for all four of the DL currently on the board but they really need at least one NT type, and Reitmaier is in the Glasgow mold. 3.5* MI DE/DT Deron Irving-Bey probably tops out as a three-tech. Getting at least one and preferably two of Solomon, Reitmaier, and 4.5* UT DT Jay Tufele is neck-and-neck with a ready-to-play tackle as the most pressing need remaining in the class.

Etc.

FL LB Jordan Anthony has set a commit date of 12/22 per this Epic Oskee-level video on Hudl. Speaking of!

Lorenz reports that Anthony will visit Ann Arbor on an unofficial this weekend instead of taking an official to Maryland. If so that is game over, man. Anthony's announcement will have zero suspense, which is the way I like my announcements.

MS LB Willie Gay is at one of those State versus State All Star games and sounding like a pretty good Peppers analogue: "Gay is really fluid and speedy from his linebacker position and he's got safety cover ability to go with his heat-seeking run support style." Michigan is still after him hard.

Lorenz also reports Michigan thinks 3.5* OH DE James Hudson's senior film is really good too. He and Stueber are probably the most underrated guys in the class.

4* 2018 MI LB Ovie Oghoufo is a Notre Dame commit but sounds very open about listening to Michigan, as you would expect after Notre Dame went 4-8. 4* 2018 GA LB commit Otis Reese just got a trio of heavy-hitting offers: Bama, Georgia, and Florida. If there's going to be wobble in his recruitment it'll start now. He sounded very committed just a couple weeks ago.

MI CB Ambry Thomas commit process details. Similar article on AL S commit J'Marick Woods.

Apparently the Pac-12 championship is tonight. Is this new? Have I never watched the Pac-12 championship before? I'm very confused. I thought I'd tell you in case you are unprepared for a Friday game.

Anyway:

Woods re-affirms

AL S J'Marick Woods, a wobbler, ceases wobbling:

"It was really hard to make my final decision because I like Arkansas a lot, but I am picking Michigan," said Woods.  "I just prayed about it and the Lord showed me signs.  I feel good about my future as a Wolverine."

He's an early enrollee so this should be a definitive end to his recruitment. There are two visit weekends before the dead period and afterwards he'll be in Ann Arbor. Kind of get the feeling the Arkansas/Mississippi State dalliances were manufactured to provide his school with an excuse to do some hat stuff.

Keeping Woods is important with Michigan's need at safety and the lack of other names on the board at the spot; Scout makes him sound a lot like Jeremy Clark:

Woods is a defensive back with great length. He is lean and will need to add weight to his frame when he gets to the next level. He could get a look at cornerback, but he is likely a free safety in college. His length is an asset in coverage and recovery.

I'll take another Clark.

All hands to the tweet decryption stations

Michigan's coaches are on the road this week, visiting anyone and everyone they're still recruiting. CA OL Aaron Banks lives in El Cerrito, California, and this may or may not mean anything.

I have an emoji for this.

Possibilities:

1. Harbaugh finally got his latte after like 15 minutes
2. Clash of Royale Strike level up
3. Banks is announcing for Michigan on the 9th.
4. Harbaugh's making telescopes? And selling them for profit? I guess?

It's times like these I wish Michigan had a TOOT TOOT ALL IN FOR THE GOVERNOR wink wink commit thing, like many schools do. Just a few hours prior to the above tweet, Lorenz reported that Michigan had little idea what Banks would do. Reports that Banks was not a take appear to be incorrect.

FWIW, Brice Marich hears that the in-home with Banks "went excellent and was very informative too."

Dominate the hyphens

Michigan's quest to dominate the state of Hyphen continues unabated after their setback with Brelin Faison-Walden. Next up might be MI DE Deron Irving-Bey, who is set to announce at the Army game. With just two visit weekends left before the dead period and one official visit in the books, some tea-leaf reading is possible:

• His list of six is really a list of four. He's visited Tennessee, plans to visit Maryland this weekend, and has been on the MSU and UM campuses many times for unofficials. Syracuse and Cincinnati are window dressing.
• Webb reports that he'll take an official to Michigan for their huge December 9th weekend. That should be his last in person recruiting contact before his commitment, since the dead period starts the 12th. In a dead period you can only interact on the phone or by text.

While you can't entirely rule MSU out since he's familiar with the program, Michigan is perceived to lead and gets the last crack. Also he has a hyphen in his last name.

Linebacker board static

Sorry for leaving FL LB Jordan Anthony off the recruiting overview post on Wednesday. That was an oversight only; Michigan is still expected to get him. That does rather complicate things in the projected class, which had MS LB Willie Gay on it and then did not when I inserted Anthony.

Despite that omission, Gay remains very high on Michigan. Per Lorenz, Partridge stopped in on Tuesday and Gay said it went "better than I would have ever thought," which is kind of a weird statement and also very encouraging. This is still in "believe it when I see it" territory. If Gay schedules an unofficial back to Ann Arbor, then I will start thinking it's happening. I remember Fletcher Cox and will not discount Mississippi State for an instate kid, ever.

Meanwhile, MI LB Antjuan Simmons decommitted from Ohio State, making that one guy's article about Meyer's recruiting coup look a bit silly. Do not expect Michigan to get involved. Simmons still appears salty about Michigan's lack of enthusiasm early in the process. Even after he started looking around and must have had an inkling that he was not going to end up in Columbus, his twitter feed was... uh... aggressive about Michigan.

This is mostly disappointing because I wanted this screenshot to be a wall of block Ms:

Seven out of eight wouldn't be bad. Webb's hearing Arizona may be Simmons's landing spot, which would be something. Notre Dame is also a strong contender.

NJ LB Drew Singleton will be at The Big Recruiting Weekend.

Rutger is fine, it's just the S that makes it a problem

Webb reports that the parents of TN DT Rutger Reitmaier are in Michigan's corner, and with Oregon in flux they will have a great shot to flip him. Reitmaier's dad has been on campus more than some committed recruits:

The elder Reitmaier made his way to campus for a game weeks before his son came up for an official visit.  It gave dad an opportunity to spend some quality one-on-one time with Harbaugh.  They built on that when the entire Reitmaier family came up for Rutger's official visit a few weeks ago.

A recent OSU offer may be the main competition if Reitmaier follows through with a visit.

Why the Herbert wobble is a thing

This is why:

“I want to play right away," he said when asked what he's looking for in a school.

“Miami says I can come in and play right away, Florida says that I can come in and play, and Michigan says that I have to come in and compete with [junior tackle Juwann Bushell-Beatty] and probably another tackle [current Michigan commit Joel Honigford].”

It is unrealistic that Miami and Florida don't have guys at least on JBB's level. If Herbert's takeaway from those two competitors is "I should go to another school," that sounds like the kind of reason that's not the real reason. He's the only guy in the class I think is a serious threat to voluntarily decommit.

Edges of the board still active

Marich also reports that CT CB Brandon Sebastian plans a mid-January official and that AZ S Isaiah Pola-Mao has tentative plans to official at some point during that month as well. That's good timing for Michigan, as a lot of questions about who will and will not be in the class will be resolved by the time either guy gets around to making a decision.

Meanwhile, chaos at Oregon has seen a number of their top prospects decommit or Explore Their Options; delightfully named OL/DL Popo Aumavae is one of them. He's setting up a suite of visits and he'd like Michigan to be one of them.

Obligatory Najee Section

Tom Van Haaren puts a not-at-all-completely-arbitrary chance on CA RB Najee Harris flipping:

Committed to: Alabama
Chance he flips: 50 percent
Toughest competition: Michigan

!!!

I like that number. It is a high number. Lorenz reports Harris will follow through on his plan to visit Michigan for The Big Recruiting Weekend. Like Irving-Bey, that should be the last in-person crack anyone gets at him before he enrolls early. (Or commits, in Irving-Bey's case.)

Etc.

Matt Wenzel interviews MA RB commit AJ Dillon, who missed a chunk of his senior season with a broken leg. He's taking some visits but it doesn't seem like a serious situation:

Dillon, who said he would have considered enrolling early at Michigan but his school doesn't allow it, will take his first of five allotted official visits to Boston College this weekend and then go to Ann Arbor the following week. He's also considering visits to Nebraska and Iowa, but nothing is arranged yet and he's still firmly committed to Michigan, which he's been watching from afar all season.

"I was really impressed with them, they're still doing great."

A Notre Dame visit would be something to watch out for given Dillon's family ties; I doubt that Nebraska, BC, or Iowa have the recruiting mojo to flip Dillon without an external bombshell named Najee.

Happy trails to TX LB Baron Browning, who committed to OSU. GA WR Jeremiah Holloman isn't really a happy trails since Michigan hasn't been on his list since shortly after his decommit almost a year ago, but if you're curious he just committed to Georgia.

Keep an eye on the FAU job. Bruce Feldman reports that Mario Cristobal is a candidate; if he gets it that would greatly aid Michigan's chances with Alex Leatherwood.

Brandon Brown lists the various guys who plan to enroll early. I was not aware of a couple of these names. For the record: JaRaymond Hall, Donovan Jeter, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Ben Mason, Benjamin St-Juste, Jaylen Kelly-Powell, J'Marick Woods, Donovan-Peoples Jones, Ambry Thomas, Tarik Black, Cesar Ruiz, and Najee Harris all plan to enroll early. Michigan should have room since they'll have a ton of guys who want to get done with school this semester so they can prep for the NFL draft.

FWIW, Brown has also dropped a couple hints that Rivals will give Solomon a fifth star when their next re-rank comes out. That would be a second; Scout gave him one after the first few games this year, and reports that CT WR Tarik Black denied that he ever named Alabama his top school.

Jedd Fisch visited FL WR Mike Harley in-home. Harley is a WVU commit who's probably flipping somewhere; Michigan was involved just before he went off the board.