2015 rutgers

[Barron/MGoBlog]

Football’s what you make of it. If you want to watch for the big hit or the big pass, you can. If you want to watch because you’re hoping to get a glimpse of how pattern matching works on switch routes, you can. It’s a game of nuance that can be enjoyed without; you can guess which direction I lean considering this is a column predicated on the usual stats not providing enough information. Rarely, though, you see the same thing no matter what you intended to look for; sometimes watching a team get punched in the face is also a statistical drubbing regardless of the set of stats you use.

The Mathlete’s Four Factors:

Once again, a quick reminder of what the factors mean:

Conversion rate = [1st Downs gained]/[1st Down plays (including first play of drive)]. A three and out is 0/1. A one play touchdown is 1/1. Two first downs and then a stop is 2/3, etc.

Bonus Yards = [Yards gained beyond the first down line]/[Total plays from scrimmage]

This is an adjustment to how I have previously calculated, to account for the plays a team runs.

Field Position =  Expected team points based on starting field position. This accounts for all elements of field position: turnovers, special teams, drive penetration etc.

Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)

Offense:

	Field Pos.	Conv. Rate	Bonus YPP	Red Zone
Week 1	21.0	73	1.52	5.7
Rank	60	30	59	27
Week 2	25.0	68	1.63	5.8
Rank	77	70	95	30
Week 3	25.3	70	2.56	5.8
Rank (B1G Rk)	84 (12)	54 (6)	43 (6)	30 (5)
Week 4	24.5	72	2.92	5.8
Rank (B1G Rk)	91 (14)	30 (4)	31 (3)	27 (4)
Week 5	26.9	67	2.78	5.8
Rank (B1G Rk)	59 (10)	54 (3)	39 (3)	20 (2)
Week 6	28.2	68	2.93	5.8
Rank (B1G Rk)	41 (4)	39 (1)	25 (2)	21 (2)
Week 7	28.4	65	2.75	5.5
Rank (B1G Rk)	36 (4)	61 (5)	36 (3)	31 (2)
Week 9	27.6	65	2.59	6.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	45 (6)	51 (3)	44 (6)	3 (1)
Week 10	27.6	65	2.64	6.0
Rank (B1G Rk)	46 (6)	35 (2)	43 (5)	4 (1)

Defense:

	Field Pos.	Conv. Rate	Bonus YPP	Red Zone
Week 1	27.9	73	1.64	5.7
Rank	47	44	20	30
Week 2	25.1	67	1.60	6.1
Rank	51	58	23	88
Week 3	24.0	63	1.28	6.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	35 (4)	38 (6)	9 (3)	100 (13)
Week 4	23.1	59	1.23	6.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	29 (5)	17 (4)	4 (1)	110 (13)
Week 5	24.5	55	1.10	6.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	32 (4)	7 (2)	1 (1)	115 (13)
Week 6	23.6	54	1.01	6.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	21 (4)	6 (1)	1 (1)	115 (12)
Week 7	23.4	57	1.24	6.4
Rank (B1G Rk)	20 (3)	6 (1)	1 (1)	124 (13)
Week 9	23.4	60	1.54	4.6
Rank (B1G Rk)	17 (3)	7 (2)	6 (2)	42 (6)
Week 10	24.1	59	1.61	4.1
Rank (B1G Rk)	22 (4)	6 (1)	5 (2)	13 (2)

[After the JUMP: tables, attempted explanations, and scout-by-number]

[Bryan Fuller]

Upon Further Review still has a sponsor. Hey man the feds are going to raid your meth lab. Or raise rates. I'm not sure which agency we're talking about. Unless they're the same one, which would be weird but again we are talking about an entity that thinks alcohol, tobacco, and firearms are pretty much the same thing. I disagree, feds.

What was I talking about again?

Oh, right: low rates won't be quite as low in the near future if you're on the fence.

Matt's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call. (No pants required.)

FORMATION NOTES: Nothing weird in this one. This will be a pattern, as Michigan put the toys away for the most part. The screens were not anything super clever; other than the fullback wheel this was almost all things already put on film.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Exceptions from the usual routine were few and far between in this one. Smith and Johnson were the main tailbacks; Houma got a couple carries that must have induced déjà vu in Rudock. Green and Shallman got in some in garbage time.

Tight end was mostly Butt and Williams; Hill got a few snaps. Bunting may have gotten in once or twice, his playing time has dipped significantly. Wouldn't read too much into that since Williams is doing well.

WR was Darboh, Chesson, and Perry. I don't think Ways played. Newsome got a half-dozen snaps as an extra OL.

[After THE JUMP: accurate Iowa Rudock is a good thing.]

Upon Further Review has a sponsor.

Matt says the Fed may raise rates pretty soon here, and a cursory googling confirms that some dude says there is a "very strong case" to do so. Lifehacker says this will make the "notoriously low rates" of recent years less notoriously low. If you're on the fence and hate pants, Matt can help. I need one more sentence to get past the logo.

He's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: A few new things. I'm using "heavy" to denote lineups on which Michigan plays four true DL. Without Godin those are almost always both NTs with Henry and Wormley. This was 6-2 heavy:

For a period late in the first half Michigan ran a dime package on which the NT split out. This was a pass rush package without much pass rush and didn't return; I called it "3-2-6 dime split":

And Michigan has been running this one-high nickel package with eight guys in the box enough that I thought I should note it. This is "nickel even 8":

It is frequent on passing downs that feature some run threat.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Injuries biting into the DL a bit now. Michigan was rotating Hurst and Glasgow until Glasgow went out, at which point Hurst had to go the rest of the way himself. I do think they bought him a little rest by inserting Henry at the nose. Wormley and Henry played most of the game as well; Godin got one snap shortly after Glasgow exited. He must be close, but not close enough.

RJS returned to buck. Ross spotted him in passing downs. I called those dime packages; YMMV. With Gedeon out Morgan and Bolden got all the ILB snaps.

Secondary saw a shift as Dymonte Thomas got significantly more time than he has before; I would say he displaced Delano Hill as the starter. Hill played a fair share as well, both in nickel and dime. Second corner rotation was as per usual with an edge to Clark in snaps. Brandon Watson saw maybe a half dozen snaps at nickelback as Michigan tried to save Peppers a bit.

[After THE JUMP: are you disappointed yeah kinda is that rational nah]