Statistical Analysis of Defense During B10 Games - Saturday Was The Best Game Of The Year *Yards Per Drive Now Reflected*

I've seen a few diaries analyze the defense in terms of total yardage, points allowed, etc. As I watched our defense on Saturday without looking at total yardage and points, I couldn't help but to think that this was the best performance by our young defense during conference play to date. I know that may sound foolish considering that we gave up nearly 600 yards and 65 points.

However, I don't think total yardage and points are necessarily the best measurements to evaluate our defensive performances. Those measurements fail to account for how quickly we score on offense, our special teams(or lack of in this case) play, turnovers, and starting field position for the opposition.

I decided to evaluate the defense in a more comprehensive manner, using several statistics to get a "big picture" view of the defense. I used several statistics to evaluate the defense during B10 play:

1.) % of stops(defined as non-scoring drives by the opposition)

 2.) % of punts forced by the defense

3.) % of 3-and-outs forced by the defense

4.) Points per drive allowed by the defense

5.) Average starting field position by the opposition

6.) Yard Per Drive By Opposition

Here's how B10 play stacks up

 Game 1(Indiana):

a.)7 stops on 13 drives(53.8%) - 2 stops were forced by turnover on downs

b.) 4 punts on 13 drives(30.8%)

c.) One 3-and-out(7.7%)

d.) 35 points on 13 drives = 2.69 points per drive

e.) Average starting position by Indiana = 26.31 yard line(Indiana Territory)

f.) 568 yards on 13 drives = 43.69 yards per drive

Game 2(MSU)

a.) 4 stops on 10 drives(40%)

b.) 4 punts on 10 drives(40%)

c.) Two 3-and-outs on 10 drives(20%)

d.) 34 points on 10 drives = 3.4 points per drive

e.) Average starting field position by MSU = 30.1 yard line(MSU Territory)

f.) 536 yards on 10 drives = 53.6 yards per drive

Game 3(Iowa)

a.) 5 stops on 11 drives(45.5%)

b.) 5 punts on 11 drives(45.5%)

c.) Five 3-and-outs on 11 drives(45.5%)

d.) 38 points on 11 drives = 3.45 points per drive

e.) Iowa average starting field position = 38.09 yard line(Iowa Territory)

f.) 383 yards on 11 drives = 34.82 yards per drive

Game 4(Penn State)

a.) 2 stops on 9 drives(22.2%) - That is a very ugly number

b.) 2 punts on 9 drives(22.2%)

c.) One 3-and-out(11.1%)

d.) 41 points on 9 drives = 4.56 points per drive

e.) Average Starting Field Position for Penn State = 37.78 yard line(Penn State Territory)

f.) 435 Yards on 9 drives = 48.33 yards per drive

Game 5(Illinois) - Regulation Only

a.) 8 stops on 14 drives(57.14%) including 1 fumble and missed FG - best % during B10

b.) 6 punts on 14 drives(42.75%)  - 2nd best percentage of the B10 season

c.) Four 3-and-outs(28.57%) - 2nd best percentage of the B10 season

d.) 45 points on 14 drives = 3.21 points per drive - 2nd best ratio during B10 play

e.) Average starting field position for Illinois = 40.43 yard line(Illinois Territory) - TO's and special teams absolutely killed us

 f.) 486 yards on 14 drives = 34.71 yards per drive

Recap:

  Stop%                Punt%         3-and-out%            Points/Drive            Starting Field Position

illinois(57.14)    Iowa(45.5)    Iowa(45.5)            Ind(2.69)                   Ind(26.31 yard line)

Ind(53.8)            ill(42.75)        ill(28.57)               ill(3.21)                      MSU(30.1 yard line)

Iowa(45.5)         MSU(40)        MSU(20)            MSU(3.4)                   PSU(37.78 yard line)

MSU(40)             Ind(30.8)       PSU(11.1)            Iowa(3.45)                 Iowa(38.09 yard line)

PSU(22.2)         PSU(22.2)      Ind(7.7)                 PSU(4.56)                 ill(40.43 yard line)

**Yards Per Drive**

Illinois(34.71 Yards per Drive)

Iowa(34.82 Yards per Drive)

Indiana(43.69 Yards per Drive)

Penn State(48.33 Yards Per Drive)

MSU(53.6 Yards Per Drive)

What does all this tell us:

I'm not foolish enough to believe we have a defense that is even approaching slightly below average, however, I do think we've made some improvement during 2 of the past 3 weeks with PSU being the outlier for entire season. When you consider that the defense had to work with the worst starting field position during B10 play, had to deal with 5 TO's by the offense, and yet the defense had their highest stop percentage of the year, I would tend to believe that they had their best performance of the year vs. Illinois.

**Now taking into account that the defense held Illinois to the lowest yards per drive during B10 play, I'm certainly convinced that Saturday was their best game of the year on the defensive side of the ball**

Moving forward:

We all understand the defense is going to be a liability for the rest of the year, but if we can play semi-adequate for the remainder of our games, we might be able to win 2 of the next 3(I know that's wishful thinking more than anything), but the defense doesn't have to be all world for us to win. I personally think that force punt % and 3-and-out % are the 2 biggest indicators of defensive success above, and if we can get that number between 45-55%, I think we have a chance to win most games. Essentially, if the defense can stop the opposition half of the time, we should be in a good position to win most games.