SI, NFL draft, and star ratings
Sports Illustrated has an interesting look at Don Banks first round NFL mock draft and seeing where Rivals ranked those players when they came out of high school.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_staples/04/21/mock/i…
Six players ranked #1 at their position from 2005 and 2006 (three from each year) are expected to be drafted in the first round, but so are a lot of two-, three-, and four-star recruits. There's even one zero-star. Thus showing once again that recruiting five-star players isn't the be all and end all, though getting a player who is ranked #1 at his position certainly has its benefits.
April 21st, 2009 at 10:38 PM ^
i saw that, interesting stuff. Some of the top defensive guys worked their way to being good in college rather than being freaks of nature from the start.
Last Years NFL Draft
First Round of the 2008 NFL draft had
5 star - 5 players
4 star - 11 players
3 star - 6 players
2 star - 7 players
1 star - 0 players
0 star - 2 players
Stats according to Rivals...this wasn't an abnormal year.
Granted, there are more people coming out of HS with few stars, so a 5 star does have a better chance of getting drafted. However, it is striking that top college players come from all over the spectrum.
April 22nd, 2009 at 10:34 AM ^
It would be appropriate to look at how many of each star level there were. If there were 20 5 stars and 5 of those were drafted in the first round that is a 25% chance you get drafted in the first round. Of course there are guys coming out from different classes which makes it more complicated yet. You can't look at straight numbers of 5 stars being selected but rather percentage of those given 5 stars.
April 22nd, 2009 at 11:18 AM ^
I think Rivals usually has around 30 five-stars but then the remainder of the Rivals 250 consists of 4-stars, so there are at least 220 four-stars...
my chances with 5 stars. Maybe if I'm bored today I'll take a look at this year and last year's 2nd/3rd round picks and see how this trend works on a larger sample.
You realize that there are like 25 5-star players and thousands of 2-star players every year, right?
So if you're looking at gross numbers, there is no way in hell as many 5-star players will get drafted as 2-star players. You need to look at what % of each type succeeds.
April 22nd, 2009 at 11:20 AM ^
Yeah, somebody (I think either Brian or SMQB/Doc Saturday) did a feature on this a couple years ago, and found that when you look at a percentage basis rather than raw numbers, it was something like an order of magnitude difference in terms of likelihood of being drafted early. I'll try to find the article and link it here.
Does Rivals even give 1-star ratings? I know Scout gives them for players who haven't been evaluated yet, but I think it's silly to have a rating system of 5 stars when you never use the 1-star.
For example, if a kid's only Division I offer is from Buffalo or Rice, perhaps that kid deserves only a 1-star rating.
2008 NFL Draft: Second Round
5 stars = 4
4 stars = 11
3 stars = 8
2 stars or less = 9
Added to last year's first round numbers.
2008 NFL Draft Rounds 1-2
5 star - 9 players
4 star - 22 players
3 star - 15 players
2 stars or less - 18 players