OT: Australian Open-Place Your Bets!
I know we’re all focused on the Super Bowl this weekend, but the Grand Slam season officially kicks off tomorrow night (for most of us) as well. There are some compelling storylines leading up to this one in both the men’s and women’s tournament:
- Can Novak maintain his dominance in Melbourne and win his 9th AO?
- Will Rafa win a record 21st slam?
- Will Thiem officially break the dominance of the big-3 with a second consecutive slam title?
- In the women’s draw, Serena has a chance to win a record-tying 24th slam.
Djokovic seems to have gotten the short straw in this year’s draw. After facing Chardy in the first round, he gets to look forward to a potential 4th round match against Raonic or Wawrinka, Zverev in the quarters, and Thiem in the semis. Ouch.
So, all you tennis fans, who’s your favorite?
My predictions:
- Djokovic d. Thiem
- Nadal d. Medvedev
- Djokovic d. Nadal
Go Nole! Never bet against Djokovic in Melbourne. Nadal’s gonna have to wait until Roland Garros for his 21st slam.
February 6th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
Nice to see some tennis talk on here. I can't go against Djokovic, but I'll pick a surprise winner on the women's side and say Iga Swiatek proves her French Open win wasn't a fluke.
February 6th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
Sometimes there's a thread started on the day of the championship matches, but other than that there isn't much talk of tennis on here.
I'll admit to not following the women's game very much lately, apart from the headlines that is, so I'll have to keep an eye out for Swiatek.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
If you see a thread on international hockey, rugby, or anything tennis, I am often the culprit :)
February 6th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
You'll always get a +1 from me!
February 6th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Men’s Singles - Vitas Gerulaitis
Women’s Singles - Gabriella Sabatini
Event Sponsored by Aussie Shampoo & Conditioner
February 6th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
I don't follow the men's game nearly as much as I do the women's. So I'll speak primarily on the WTA side of the equation.
In spite of the brain fart she had in Melbourne this week, I like Simona Halep to pick up her first Grand Slam on a hard court. It's good to see Barty playing again after a long break, and playing well. She'll be dangerous in her home slam as well.
As for who has been playing the best tennis over the last few months - I like both Kenin and Sabalenka to go far. Kenin ran into the buzzsaw that was Iga Swiatek at the French in the finals, which was the only thing that kept her from winning two slams in 2020. And Sabalenka has been winning almost everything she's been entering since slam season ended late last year.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
I'd bet against Barty, personally. Tons of pressure trying to win the home slam.
February 6th, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
I haven't watched tennis since the heady days of Ivan and Boris.
February 6th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
I was always a fan of Marat Safin. I loved his game and he had some epic meltdowns on the court as well. It was a major coup when you got him to join your party in the Duma after his retirement.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
Marat's sister Dinara Safina was pretty good too
February 6th, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
Yep. Only brother and sister to both be ranked #1.
February 6th, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
I really dislike how tennis does random draws where the number 1 seed can end up playing #5 in the quarters and #3 in the semis. It can really penalize the top seeds who have earned the right to play a more favorable draw. They should do it like the NCAA (and basically every other sports league) where 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, etc. You want a better draw, then improve your ranking.
Until somebody proves they can beat Djokodal, it's very hard to pick against them. I was watching Medvedev play Zverev in the ATP cup last night and it was a total choke fest late in the third set. Neither of them could hit a second serve to save their lives....either a double fault 2 feet past the line or pushed in at < 80 mph. So between Novak and Rafa, I have to go with Djokovic. He's the king down under and the AO has historically been Rafa's worst slam.
On the women's side, I pick Osaka. I'm not sure about Barty who basically hasn't played in a year. Swiatek could be a great one but I don't believe she's played since Roland Garros. Kenin will be factor but she'll need help along the way.
February 6th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
I hate the draw system as well and always wondered why they do it that way. Just tradition? I do like how Wimbledon weighs performance on grass over the past year, given the uniqueness of the surface. But in the end, it's still the same type of draw.
February 6th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^
I imagine they implement the random draw in an effort to stimulate different match ups. There is a tennis tournament almost every week but the rankings (especially at the top) don't change as often. Tennis officials (ITF, ATP, WTA) and tournaments don't want the same players playing each other every week. What they don't account for is the fact that all the top 8 players only show up for about 10-12 tournaments a year - the 4 slams plus probably 6-8 of the Masters 1000 events. It's probably fewer than that when you account for injuries, etc. The rankings fluctuate enough these days where they could play 1v8, 2v7, etc. and get a lot of exciting matches.
February 6th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
Forgot to mention Serena. Saw her play a couple of nights ago and she looks pretty fit and in good form. I think she could make a run, too.
February 6th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
Just did a quick scan of the draw- if there is a year for an American male to FINALLY bust through... This is not the year.
Opelka or Fritz will run into Djoker. No Isner. Yuck.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
haha we may be waiting a while for that day to come sadly...
February 6th, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
I hate Nadal, his 20 slams are skewed by the clay wins, take those away and he has 7 slams, pretty good but not GOAT status IMO.
Btw, Nadal won last slam, not Thiem as French Open was played later last year.
Go Novak!
February 6th, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
I'm so used to thinking of the US as the last slam that I completely forgot that the French was played late last year. I completely 2020'd that one!
February 6th, 2021 at 3:23 PM ^
I hate the way they do the draw too. Nadal has gotten so lucky with draws a lot, a couple of years ago when he won the US Open, it was a joke how easy he had it compared to Novak and Roger.
Also, if Novak hadn't gotten disqualified last year, he most likely wins the US Open.
February 6th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
This is some really poor analysis. Yes, Nadal has won 13 French Opens and owns a 100-2 record at Roland Garros (stop and let that sink in for a second.) Then step back and realize there are twice as many hard court majors as there are either clay or grass. Therefore, if your preferred surface is hard-court, you have twice as many opportunities to win majors. This stacks the decks against those whose preferred surface is either clay or grass. So, you could therefore say - with more conviction and equal inanity - you should take away Djokovic's hard-court slam victories (and he is down to six) or Federer's hard court victories (and he's down to 9 slams.) Arguments which make as little sense as somehow discounting Nadal's French Open victories.
I'm sorry you hate Nadal, sorry he beat Djokovic in straight sets at Roland Garros this past year and sorry Novak lost his temper and hit a line judge with a ball costing himself a chance at a US Open in September, but when they're talking GOATs, Rafa will always be mentioned. As will Roger. As will Novak.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
Let's hope Novak doesn't end up in the conversation with the GOATs Roger and Rafa after the dust settles.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
I don't buy your logic.
When someone is a clay court specialist, practically born and raised in/on that mud as Nadal was, and few or none can realistically challenge him, he nearly has the French Open to himself.
I actually respect his other 7 majors more than all those French Open titles.
Look at it this way: despite the near-total domination of Tennis by the big 3 (Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic) ever since 2008 (13 seasons) when the Joker won his first major, nobody other than Nadal has more than one French Open title (Federer, Wawrinka, Djokovic one each)
OTOH, each of the other Majors has been won multiple times by more than one player:
AUS: Roger or Joker all of them except for one each by Raf and Wawrinka.
WIM: Roger, Joker, Raf, and Andy Murray each with 2 or more.
US: Raf 4 times, Joker 3, Roger 1 (2009 his 6th US title, including 5 straight between 2003-2007), and one each by del Potro, Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, and Thiem.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Nadal (unless he retires or suffers untimely injuries) win another half-dozen or more French Opens, plus an occasional other Major or more.
February 6th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
It is good to see reasoned discourse. Thank you, Rob F. +1. But your logic suffers. First, Nadal is not the only clay court player. Many European and South American players grew up playing on clay. It is true that it has been a shrinking pool in the last decade, and will dwindle further over the next decade. However, Dominic Thiem's best surface is dirt, for one, though he is quickly becoming a force on all surfaces. Del Potro is another. Djokovic and Federer are also superb clay court players. As was David Ferrer. But they all played during the time of Nadal. So too bad, so sad.
You also cannot use Rafa's brilliance as an all-around player against him to prove your point. When you deduct his 7 Slams on grass and hardcourt, the pickings getting mighty thin outside the Big 3 on those courts, especially outside the US Open. Since 2008, other than the Big 3:
Aus: Has been won once by another player (Stan)
Wim: Has been one twice but by a single player (Murray)
Only at the US Open is there a beginning of an argument: where del Potro, Murray, Stan, Cilic and Thiem have broken through. And for this, commendation to the folks at the US Open, who work hard at mixing the paint so it is a fairer, more balanced one for players across multiple specializations.
At the end of the day then, the logic of deducting the clay court titles from Rafa's totals holds as much water as deducting hardcourt titles from Federer or Djokovic, ie none.
February 6th, 2021 at 9:04 PM ^
Good arguments all.
We'll have to agree to disagree on a few of them.
That said, Nadal (depending on how long he can stick around) will likely end up with the most men's majors. Like I said, he'll likely rack up several more in France and a few more among the other Majors. 25 is very possible; 30 might even be within range, with Federer now struggling to get healthy and remain competitive.
February 6th, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
Well since King Roger is still sitting out I have to root against Djokovic (duh) and even Rafa (unfortunately). Here's to Thiem / Tsitsipas / Zverev / field!
Also, 4 years ago I was at the epic Aussie Open final between Roger and Rafa with this view...
February 6th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
Nice view!
But I've never understood the dislike that Federer fans have for Novak. I am personally a fan of Djokovic but I feel blessed to have lived through a (the?) golden age of tennis. Djokovic, Federer, Nadal all in their prime! Then add Murray into the mix. And del Potro, before his unfortunate injuries, had the potential to challenge any of them.
Such a great era of tennis!
February 6th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
If we're adding Murray with his 3 Majors, then we gotta do likewise with Stan Wawrinka and his 3.
Other than Federer (20), Nadal (20) Djokovic (17?), and Murray, Wawrinka 3 each, nobody other than 1 major each by del Potro, Cilic, and Thiem. NOBODY.
February 6th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
I certainly see an argument for Stan, but I think Murray's 3 titles understates how consistent he was during his prime. He was able to consistently get to either the semis or later: losing 9 times in the semis and 11 times in the finals. Not to mention his back-to-back Gold at the olympics. For some reason, though, he just couldn't get over the hump and win the big matches. I think in any other era without the big-3 he would be a dominant player.
February 6th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Good points on Murray>Wawrinka.
I'd add one more: a substantially longer stretch than Wawrinka of being a threat to the Big Three.
February 6th, 2021 at 7:51 PM ^
Plus Murray made it to #1 (for 41 weeks I believe) which is an amazing achievement with the Big 3 in their primes.
February 6th, 2021 at 6:45 PM ^
"For some reason, though, he just couldn't get over the hump and win the big matches."
I think you could spell some reason: "Federer, Nadal, Djokovic."
February 6th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
Nadal is most dominate athlete in the world.
February 6th, 2021 at 5:15 PM ^
Dominant, too? (for all intensive porpoises)
February 6th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
Djoker!!!