ND 6 point favorite over MSU (now 6 !!!!!)

Submitted by Irish on
Need to call on the board for help to explain this for me, how is this possible? Btw ND is currently on track to record the second most TOs ever in one season, 60 Thanks in advance
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Elmer

September 12th, 2011 at 2:41 PM ^

One more vote for an Irish win. 

The turnovers can be corrected. Their offense is potent. 

Sparty is overated due to last year's win total. 

ND defense is OK against power teams, they just can't handle Denard or playing in space (fortunately for you Irish, it's a terrestrial game in South Bend).

Joined: 04/22/2011

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Blue in Yarmouth

September 12th, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^

I don't know shit about betting lines (don't gamble on sports), but I think ND wins big against MSU actually. All they have to do is cut out the TO's and they will be fine. I think their D is better than they showed against us as well. They teach Gray to turn around and face the ball when the WR does and I htink they can be a force on both sides of the ball. Floyd will torch the MSU d this weekend, book it.

Joined: 02/18/2009

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bronxblue

September 12th, 2011 at 4:06 PM ^

As others have noted, lines are designed to increase betting action, not necessarily model the expected outcome of the game.  ND could very easily be 2-0 right now, and bettors don't see ND losing at home to an overrated MSU team after both the past two weeks as well as how last year's game played out.  Also, part of the reason UM won was because Denard was able to escape ND's constant pressure and make plays with his legs.  MSU's offensive line is nothing to write home about and, while their running game is better, ND should be able to get consistent pressure on Cousins.  Knock him out or rattle him a bit in the pocket, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.  I think the line settles around 4 before gametime, but 5 seems reasonable. 

Joined: 11/22/2008

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treetown

September 12th, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^

Betting lines are all about perception - the perception of the potential bettor. Clearly those who set the line are counting on:

1. ND supporters feeling that except for very bady turnovers, their team has played pretty well and put up good numbers. So the thinking is as others have noted - unlikely to continue to average 5 turnovers per game.

2. Putting ND as a favorite by 6-7 points could attract some betting on the MSU side - besides die hard Sparty fans who always back their team, it could cause enough interest from those who think the game will be close (3-4 points like with the UM game)

Joined: 11/10/2010

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Franz Schubert

September 12th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^

Lets start from the beginning, MSU needed small miracles to beat ND, NW and Purdue last season and was exposed in blowout losses to Iowa and Alabama. The MSU offensive line was average at best last season and lost 2 starting tackles and its center. The rebuilt offensive line was dominated by Youngstown State and FAU held the run game in check. Mcgaha and France are not close to being ready to play tackle on a Big Ten line, with France switching from the D line less than 10 monthes ago. Whats really eye opening is that MSU has possibly the leagues best RBs and still manged to average a mere 3.7 yards a carry against FAU. Folks this is a bad situation on the O line that has been minimized by the general media. Look for ND to DOMINATE up front and thats why the pros have ND -5.

 

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