NCAA Game Simulator Prefers UM over Sparty

So this here NCAA Game Simulator is fun, even though what goes into the algorithm is unclear. My results:

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 28 - Michigan State (2016): 21

Matchup Simulation Stats

• This game has been simulated 152 times.
• Michigan (2016) has won 134 times (88.2%), won by > 20 pts 70 times (46.1%)
• Michigan State (2016) has won 18 times (11.8%), won by > 20 pts 0 times (0.0%)
• The average score is Michigan (2016): 27.2 - Michigan State (2016): 9.6, decided by < 5 pts 19 times (12.5%)
• The game has gone into overtime 2 times (1.3%)

[Note: when it says "2016" it means "2015-16"]

[Also note: I ran the sims for this matchup with teams from 13-14 (84% to Sparty) and 14-15 (75% to Sparty), so the sim favors us to roughly the same degree it favored them the last two times...and we all know how that ended up.]