Body of Work, 2009 and 2010, with some reasonable projections.

Submitted by JTGoBlue on

 In response to all the doubters comparing the 2010 start to 2009 results: the question...is M Football making progress and moving in the right direction?  In retrospect, considering all circumstances, was 2009 that low of a bar in comparison?

All agree, throw out 2008...no QB, no depth, attrition...total transition year.

2009:

Western:                     W, 31-7

#18 ND:                      W, 38-14

EMU:                          W, 45-17

Indiana:                       W, 36-33

At MSU:                      L, 26-20

At #12 Iowa                L, 30-28

Del. St.                       W, 63-6

At #13 PSU:              L, 35-10

At Illinois:                    L, 38-13

Purdue:                       L, 38-36

At #21 Wisconsin:     L, 45-24

OSU:                           L, 21-7

Summary: injuries, injuries, injuries...to key positions.  Look at the close losses...Iowa, MSU, Purdue..do we lose those with a healthy Molk, Forcier, Minor, Brown, and countless others?  Gobs of turnovers (what 6 or 7 against OSU?). Reasonable to say that the 1 - 7 finish was fluky, with a lot of bad luck. 1 more win and we go to a winnable bowl game ..

2010:

UCONN:                     W, 30-20

@ ND:                        W, 28-24

UMASS:                     positive W

BGSU:                       positive W

@ Indiana:                likely  W

MSU:                         likely  W

Summary, : So far, quality wins over two teams that WILL be in the top 25 by season's end...Second half M should be favored against PSU, Illinois, and Purdue, with Iowa and Wisconsin at home...then at OSU with all those young players having a full season under their belt (who knows?). Another 3 wins seems very acheivable. Staying healthy and continued positive turnover margin is key...

Total, 2009 - 2010: 14- 10

Conclusion: body of work shows/will show progress and trending up...with a very young team. 

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A2MIKE

September 14th, 2010 at 9:39 PM ^

But we probably won't be favored against Penn State, and I expect MSU to be one of the tougher games of the year, definitely wouldn't put that win in the "probable" category just yet. I love our chances against their defense, but lets see how they play this weekend.

Joined: 10/10/2009

MGoPoints: 1811

TheOracle6

September 14th, 2010 at 9:44 PM ^

Dantonio will act like Kelly did and pretend he knows how to stop this offense.  We beat our selves in EL last year and that will not happen this year.  We are going to smash Michigan State, I have all the confidence in the world in this team.  With an quarterback like Denard leading such a dangerous, experienced offense we will be in every game we play this season!

Joined: 09/02/2010

MGoPoints: 1636

imdeng

September 14th, 2010 at 9:53 PM ^

I think we match well with pro-style teams since their defense is also built to handle pro-style: large, lumbering linemen, strength over speed and so on. Thats why I think we will have success over MSU and PSU.
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Joined: 02/12/2009

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oakapple

September 14th, 2010 at 10:22 PM ^

It’s true that the MSU, Illinois, and Purdue games last year were all winnable, but the Notre Dame and Indiana games were “losable,” and Michigan had a healthy Molk for both of those games.

Getting back to this year, Michigan is still a likely underdog to PSU, Iowa, Wisky, and OSU. If the Wolverines just “beat who they’re supposed to beat,” they should get to 8-4, but the last several years (not just the last two) have shown that beating teams that are worse on paper can never be assumed.

Among the remaining four games, Iowa and Wisky are the best bets for upsets, simply because they’re at home. For Penn State, we need a lot more evidence before assuming that the Nittany Lions will be pushovers in State College.

Joined: 02/06/2009

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MileHighWolverine

September 14th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^

I still 7-5 as the baseline with the strong potential for 8-4.  Too many things can happen between now and the B10 season.  And I can easily see PSU, Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU as losses with this defense.  

Joined: 09/02/2008

MGoPoints: 7749

bronxblue

September 14th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^

I like the optimism, but we have exactly two weeks of information for comparing this season to last.  Two weeks ago, VT was a top-10 team and everyone figured Florida would bounce right back and be a national contender.  Both of those are still distinct possibilities, but after two weeks they seem unlikely.  I think the feeling on this board pushing restraint is simply that; let's not crown UM being back until we've seen the team for a couple of more weeks against top competition.  Everyone figured UM was back when they beat Wiscy in 2008, and that turned out badly.  Then everyone figured UM was back after starting 4-1 in 2009, and they struggled again.  So yeah, I am very excited to see Denard lead this team to some big wins, but when so much of your offense is tied to a single player, a season can change suddenly and inexpecliably.  Some cautioned optimism is good to see.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171714

Tha Stunna

September 15th, 2010 at 1:19 AM ^

Don't say everyone.  There are plenty of people who disagree with what you said, just like there were plenty of people who thought that USC was in for three losses last year and wasn't going to be #4 again.  (It turned out to be more than three losses, but that's not the point).

I am going with cautious optimism for now, and a lot could happen in the future; we still don't have a kicker, among other things, and there's plenty that could go wrong (and nearly did).

Joined: 10/13/2008

MGoPoints: 845