Slightly Premature Big Ten Preview - Part 1 of 3.
Part 1 of 3, 10 games and 10 players to watch, as well as a brief recruiting synopsis.
5 Best Out of Conference Games: 5.) Arizona at Iowa, Sept. 19 A Pac-Ten Big Ten game with teams that could have maxed out last year and with both teams' stars (Arizona's Tuitama and Iowa's Greene) gone. Still if either team is to have another big year, a win here would do wonders. Stoops saved his job last year... sort of, and Ferentz has good security so there is more pressure on UA. 4.) Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis), Sept. 5 Illinois will face a moderately tough test at least their defense will. Gabbert should step into the quarterback job for the Tigers so it will be interesting to see how the Illini’s defense can hold up against a pass happy Big 12 team. Budding rivalry potential will be seen here too. 3.) California at Minnesota, Sept. 19 Minnesota shows of the new stadium nationally for the first time (they do play Air Force the week previous at home though). California brings in electric runner Jahvid Best and improving bowl team. Minnesota also brings in an improving bowl team. Also, this game could be a great measuring stick for the Big Ten and Pac-Ten. 2.) Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept. 12 The two most historic teams have been... well not up to standard. Obviously both teams will be there eventually. The question lies which team will get there first. It will be interesting if Tate’s Army (or Denard’s) will be able to run past an experienced defense bolstered by Manti Te’o, and if Clausen and co. can beat up on a young Michigan defense. Good doubleheader with the next game. 1.) USC at Ohio State, Sept. 12 Last year’s game brought me more glee than Christmas (maybe not but if it was a team other then USC it probably would), watching Tressel and his clowns look on as the Trojans ran roughshod over them was priceless. Will it be the same this year on a drunken night in Columbus? Eh… probably. Still the Buckeyes have a chance if the Trojan’s turn out to not have a quarterback, which in all probability they would. Still I admire them for scheduling them even if it means humiliation. Herbstreit will be fun to listen to as usual. More incoherent thought says that watching USC play far, far away from L.A. could give the Buckeyes an advantage.
5 Best In-Conference Games 5.) Michigan at Illinois, Oct. 31 Halloween night in Champaign brings two teams with potential this year, who struggled last year, into a somewhat revenge game (this is a theme) for the U of M defense who got run over, around, and past, on homecoming this year. Illinois looks to be a sleeper this year and there definitely will be fireworks (unless the Wolverines don’t put them up… but they probably will). 4.) Minnesota at Iowa, Nov. 21 Two darkhorses will face off on the last game of the year… at Iowa, which is a tough place for anyone to win…, except Iowa. A series of improbabilities could mean this game wins the Big Ten; it will probably have title implications one way or the other. It will be interesting to see if these teams pull out of the muck and emerge near the top, but this game looks good even if they don’t. This is all predicated on if another 55-0 game doesn't happen. I think Minnesota will be pissed that they got demolished in this rivalry game last year. Another revenge game. 3.) Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 7 This game determined the Big Ten champion last year and this year might not be different. This will be another 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust game in the Big Ten and we’ll see if Pryor can win in a hostile environment and put the team on his shoulders. If he cannot, you can bet that the Wolverines will be licking their chops for his visit two weeks later. 2.) Iowa at Penn State, Sept. 26 A huge revenge game for Penn State, Iowa may have protected them from getting beat down by Florida or Oklahoma, but they sure don’t see it that way. Iowa may be forced to pass if they cannot find an heir to Shonn Greene and if Penn State really does noot have a secondary or a pass rush. Iowa’s defense may win this one on the road, but Penn State will be aiming to decapitate, maim, etc. so there is not certainty either way. 1.) Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 21 Ah, this game might be the indicator if Michigan’s fan base can get loud and provide a real top-notch home field advantage. All the factors are there: Baby Buckeyes, traitorous Justin Boren, and a losing streak bordering on unbelievable. If the stadium can be loud, it will be for this game. Tate’s or Denard’s (the starter should emerge by then) prowess will be vital in this game as the Wolverine offense looks better than the Buckeyes’ defense on paper. Ohio State-Michigan, last game of the year, 12:00 ABC, this is college football.
Players to Watch 10.) Daniel Dufrene, Sr. RB Illinois He is poised for a big year, if and only if he can get the ball in Zook’s offense. Dufrene had slightly less than six yards per carry, so a 1000 yard season is viable… with a fair amount of attempts. 9.) Navarro Bowman, So. LB Penn State He led the Nittany Lions in tackles last year and will help anchor an inexperienced defense with senior Sean Lee. The game winning forced fumble against Ohio State was indeed memorable. Bowman is also poised for a breakout year. EDIT: His probation was extended until 2010 for admitted marijuana use. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ap-pennst-bowman&prov=a… 8.) Adam Weber, Jr. QB Minnesota A good year for Minnesota last year, but Weber is facing heat from MarQueis Gray at the QB spot. Statistically an average year last year, but he needs to step up big time to give Minnesota any realistic championship shot. 7.) Mike Kafka, Sr. QB Northwestern Kafka replaces up and down longtime starter C.J. Bachér, but by all means looked the part of a star when he rushed for 217 yards and passed for 143 filling in for Bachér at Minnesota. Northwestern may slide a tad, but Kafka could make a name for himself. 6.) John Clay, So. RB Wisconsin Clay surprisingly beat out P.J. Hill for the most rushing yards on the Big Ten’s most run heavy team. With another year of an unsettled QB spot, look for the Badgers to rely heavily on Clay. 5.) Ricki Stanzi, Jr. QB Iowa This guy did not play pretty last year but he was efficient (134 passer rating) and got the job done. Without Greene he will need to do more in his second year as a starter. It can be noted that Iowa has notoriously poor WRs historically, this year will be similar. 4.) Isaiah “Juice” Williams, Sr. QB Illinois Ever since the upset Homecoming win at Michigan State as a Freshman, Juice has been the man at Illinois. He could return Illinois to another Rose Bowl this year with his steadily growing numbers and hopefully not play USC. 3.) Sean Lee, Sr. LB Penn State A Pre-Season All-America last year, Lee tore an ACL and thus is back for a 5th year in State College. Anchoring a young defense, this guy is a leader for the Defensive POY and Comeback POY in the Big Ten. 2.) Terrelle Pryor, So. QB Ohio State Highly rated out of high school, he managed the game last year but was definitely not great (5-13). He is relied upon not heavily, but extremely heavily this year as the Buckeyes do not have another QB option as well as a young offense with unproven skill position players. 1.) Michigan QB (not Sheridan), Fr. QB Michigan Be it Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson or even both, this position will clearly determine if the Wolverine Renaissance is upon us. Seriously, if they do well, Michigan could pull an upset or two. If not… well… it might be a year or two. They will definitely be one of the main storylines to watch nationally.
Recruiting Rankings (Rivals)
5 Best Out of Conference Games: 5.) Arizona at Iowa, Sept. 19 A Pac-Ten Big Ten game with teams that could have maxed out last year and with both teams' stars (Arizona's Tuitama and Iowa's Greene) gone. Still if either team is to have another big year, a win here would do wonders. Stoops saved his job last year... sort of, and Ferentz has good security so there is more pressure on UA. 4.) Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis), Sept. 5 Illinois will face a moderately tough test at least their defense will. Gabbert should step into the quarterback job for the Tigers so it will be interesting to see how the Illini’s defense can hold up against a pass happy Big 12 team. Budding rivalry potential will be seen here too. 3.) California at Minnesota, Sept. 19 Minnesota shows of the new stadium nationally for the first time (they do play Air Force the week previous at home though). California brings in electric runner Jahvid Best and improving bowl team. Minnesota also brings in an improving bowl team. Also, this game could be a great measuring stick for the Big Ten and Pac-Ten. 2.) Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept. 12 The two most historic teams have been... well not up to standard. Obviously both teams will be there eventually. The question lies which team will get there first. It will be interesting if Tate’s Army (or Denard’s) will be able to run past an experienced defense bolstered by Manti Te’o, and if Clausen and co. can beat up on a young Michigan defense. Good doubleheader with the next game. 1.) USC at Ohio State, Sept. 12 Last year’s game brought me more glee than Christmas (maybe not but if it was a team other then USC it probably would), watching Tressel and his clowns look on as the Trojans ran roughshod over them was priceless. Will it be the same this year on a drunken night in Columbus? Eh… probably. Still the Buckeyes have a chance if the Trojan’s turn out to not have a quarterback, which in all probability they would. Still I admire them for scheduling them even if it means humiliation. Herbstreit will be fun to listen to as usual. More incoherent thought says that watching USC play far, far away from L.A. could give the Buckeyes an advantage.
5 Best In-Conference Games 5.) Michigan at Illinois, Oct. 31 Halloween night in Champaign brings two teams with potential this year, who struggled last year, into a somewhat revenge game (this is a theme) for the U of M defense who got run over, around, and past, on homecoming this year. Illinois looks to be a sleeper this year and there definitely will be fireworks (unless the Wolverines don’t put them up… but they probably will). 4.) Minnesota at Iowa, Nov. 21 Two darkhorses will face off on the last game of the year… at Iowa, which is a tough place for anyone to win…, except Iowa. A series of improbabilities could mean this game wins the Big Ten; it will probably have title implications one way or the other. It will be interesting to see if these teams pull out of the muck and emerge near the top, but this game looks good even if they don’t. This is all predicated on if another 55-0 game doesn't happen. I think Minnesota will be pissed that they got demolished in this rivalry game last year. Another revenge game. 3.) Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 7 This game determined the Big Ten champion last year and this year might not be different. This will be another 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust game in the Big Ten and we’ll see if Pryor can win in a hostile environment and put the team on his shoulders. If he cannot, you can bet that the Wolverines will be licking their chops for his visit two weeks later. 2.) Iowa at Penn State, Sept. 26 A huge revenge game for Penn State, Iowa may have protected them from getting beat down by Florida or Oklahoma, but they sure don’t see it that way. Iowa may be forced to pass if they cannot find an heir to Shonn Greene and if Penn State really does noot have a secondary or a pass rush. Iowa’s defense may win this one on the road, but Penn State will be aiming to decapitate, maim, etc. so there is not certainty either way. 1.) Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 21 Ah, this game might be the indicator if Michigan’s fan base can get loud and provide a real top-notch home field advantage. All the factors are there: Baby Buckeyes, traitorous Justin Boren, and a losing streak bordering on unbelievable. If the stadium can be loud, it will be for this game. Tate’s or Denard’s (the starter should emerge by then) prowess will be vital in this game as the Wolverine offense looks better than the Buckeyes’ defense on paper. Ohio State-Michigan, last game of the year, 12:00 ABC, this is college football.
Players to Watch 10.) Daniel Dufrene, Sr. RB Illinois He is poised for a big year, if and only if he can get the ball in Zook’s offense. Dufrene had slightly less than six yards per carry, so a 1000 yard season is viable… with a fair amount of attempts. 9.) Navarro Bowman, So. LB Penn State He led the Nittany Lions in tackles last year and will help anchor an inexperienced defense with senior Sean Lee. The game winning forced fumble against Ohio State was indeed memorable. Bowman is also poised for a breakout year. EDIT: His probation was extended until 2010 for admitted marijuana use. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ap-pennst-bowman&prov=a… 8.) Adam Weber, Jr. QB Minnesota A good year for Minnesota last year, but Weber is facing heat from MarQueis Gray at the QB spot. Statistically an average year last year, but he needs to step up big time to give Minnesota any realistic championship shot. 7.) Mike Kafka, Sr. QB Northwestern Kafka replaces up and down longtime starter C.J. Bachér, but by all means looked the part of a star when he rushed for 217 yards and passed for 143 filling in for Bachér at Minnesota. Northwestern may slide a tad, but Kafka could make a name for himself. 6.) John Clay, So. RB Wisconsin Clay surprisingly beat out P.J. Hill for the most rushing yards on the Big Ten’s most run heavy team. With another year of an unsettled QB spot, look for the Badgers to rely heavily on Clay. 5.) Ricki Stanzi, Jr. QB Iowa This guy did not play pretty last year but he was efficient (134 passer rating) and got the job done. Without Greene he will need to do more in his second year as a starter. It can be noted that Iowa has notoriously poor WRs historically, this year will be similar. 4.) Isaiah “Juice” Williams, Sr. QB Illinois Ever since the upset Homecoming win at Michigan State as a Freshman, Juice has been the man at Illinois. He could return Illinois to another Rose Bowl this year with his steadily growing numbers and hopefully not play USC. 3.) Sean Lee, Sr. LB Penn State A Pre-Season All-America last year, Lee tore an ACL and thus is back for a 5th year in State College. Anchoring a young defense, this guy is a leader for the Defensive POY and Comeback POY in the Big Ten. 2.) Terrelle Pryor, So. QB Ohio State Highly rated out of high school, he managed the game last year but was definitely not great (5-13). He is relied upon not heavily, but extremely heavily this year as the Buckeyes do not have another QB option as well as a young offense with unproven skill position players. 1.) Michigan QB (not Sheridan), Fr. QB Michigan Be it Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson or even both, this position will clearly determine if the Wolverine Renaissance is upon us. Seriously, if they do well, Michigan could pull an upset or two. If not… well… it might be a year or two. They will definitely be one of the main storylines to watch nationally.
Recruiting Rankings (Rivals)
| Rank | Team | 5 Stars | 4 Stars | Total Prospects | Top Prospect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 2 | 15 | 25 | LB Dorian Bell |
| 2 | Michigan | 1 | 13 | 22 | DT Will Campbell |
| 3 | Michigan State | 0 | 10 | 23 | RB Edwin Baker |
| 4 | Penn State | 0 | 7 | 27 | WR Justin Brown |
| 5 | Illinois | 0 | 7 | 23 | DE Michael Buchanan |
| 6 | Minnesota | 0 | 3 | 20 | WR Hayo Carpenter |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 0 | 5 | 21 | WR Kraig Appleton |
| 8 | Northwestern | 0 | 1 | 18 | OL Patrick Ward |
| 9 | Indiana | 0 | 0 | 19 | DB Lawrence Barnett |
| 10 | Iowa | 0 | 2 | 19 | WR Keenan Davis |
| 11 | Purdue | 0 | 1 | 20 | RB Al-Terek McBurse |
April 18th, 2009 at 11:14 PM ^
...from MarQuiese Gray. Gray is a freshman. Weber is a two-year returning starter. Where did you hear he's feeling "heat?" This is like saying that Sheridan would have put "heat" on Mallett in 2008 had Mallett stayed. Gray's not ready yet.
And I'm perplexed. You honestly think Indiana - Virginia will be a better non-conference game than Michigan State at Notre Dame? Or even Iowa - Arizona? Heck even Purdue at Oregon would be better than Indiana - Virginia.
April 18th, 2009 at 11:40 PM ^
Ah sorry, I'll change it. I was not to aware of good OOC games this year. My bad.
But Gray is a sophomore now, he knows the offense and Brewster says he'll get considerable playing time. If he does good, he could steal the job. There is no way that you put an athlete like Gray on the sidelines for long. His AA game impressed me a lot.
April 19th, 2009 at 12:23 PM ^
Let's dissect your post here point by point.
...first, he's a freshman. He didn't qualify for the 2008 season because of his ACT scores. He only got on campus in January. He'll be a freshman this fall.
...second, the Gophers have a new offensive coordinator this year, Jed Fisch, who is installing a Denver Broncos pro-style offense. The whole team is learning the new I-formation run heavy offense. But I'm sure the two-year returning starter at QB can grasp the NFL-style offense easier than the freshman who couldn't score 18 on his ACTs eight months ago.
...third, Brewster's comments were that Gray would play like Vince Young did as a freshman at Texas - in limited situations in order to get acclimated to the offense. That's the right way to do it - like Young / Applewhite and Leak / Tebow.
But, he's not stealing Weber's job. He's not good enough. Weber is a very good QB - his production went down last year when his top running back and wideout (Bennett and Eric Decker) were lost to injury. The team has both back and increased depth. Weber is the leader.
As to your last sentence, replace Gray with Vince Young. He'll be on the sidelines except for the Young role. That's his role in 2009.
April 18th, 2009 at 11:26 PM ^
would also describe my friday nights.
The Texas Longhorns now have second place in wins @ 832. Notre Dame 831. UMich is @ 872
This was fraught with error, my bad. Changed.
April 21st, 2009 at 10:24 AM ^
I could not agree more about the Paulus story line, I am going to scream if I read 1 more thing abouth this kid. I went to the srping game and think that Tate foicier looked great............ start the Fr. and let it ride
But I have to disagree about Cal v. Minnesota being an interesting OOC match-up. Cal is probably the third or fourth best team in the Pac-10 behind USC, Oregon, and maybe Oregon State. Their offense needs to cohere as a unit which is greater than the sum of Best's runs, and which is a legitimate downfield passing threat, but they have a fairly strong defense (only gave up 17 points to USC on the road last year) and will return a lot on both fronts.
Minnesota is straight-up terrible and got exposed as such on the back nine last year. They're going to get rolled, wrecked just like an awful Michigan team did to them last year.
April 19th, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^
There is nothing to be ashamed about to be mentioned behind USC and Oregon. Those teams are superb. Cal is will be good this year and Best will be a Heisman candidate.
As for Minnesota, well, when a team is thin on talent, and loses the best WR in the conference (Eric Decker) and its starting RB (Duane Bennett), what resulted can't really be surprising (well, except for 55-0). Minnesota should have beaten Wisconsin except for a meltdown and would have played NW to overtime without the late INT. Given their 1-11 season in 2007, an improvement to 7-6 was pretty good for them. They have a lot of young talent (sounds familiar to a Michigan fan) and the momentum of a new stadium. I don't think they are "going to get rolled" like you proclaim.
If Cal had more reliable quarterback play, I think they'd be a #17 or #16 ranked team.
The reason I think Minnesota can't compete is because while the number 7-6 looks decent, and is certainly better than 1-11, I think that Minnesota's schedule tells the story: Florida Atlantic, Montana State, BGSU, and Northern Illinois (three winning or .500 and one losing record, but all middle-of-the-pack teams from the MAC, Big Sky, etc.) out of conference, and only one win better than Michigan's record in-conference (Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois instead of Wisconsin). They benefited greatly from winning a series of pathetic contests (3/4 at home) before starting their 3-5 conference season, while Cal beat Michigan State before going 7-2 in the Pac-10, a much stronger conference.
I just think Minnesota's and Cal's numbers lie, and that there's a much greater differential than 2 regular season wins between 'em.
edit: MSU was at Cal, not in E Lansing.
...I'd put a lot more stock in your assessment of Minnesota if this was still the 2008 season. It's not and the talent level and the "intangible" of a new stadium will make this game closer than you think it will.
Yes, I'm a Gopher season ticket holder.
Check your Stanzi facts - He was splitting time in 2008 with Christensen before he eventually won the job. I don't think he started much if at all in 2007. Maybe in an injury situation?
Christensen was up and down in 2007, Stanzi was 0-4 with an INT so that's off. he did do well in 2008 though, 130 passer rating, Christensen was highly recruited in a bust class for Iowa and became disconcerted so he transferred. It will be changed.
In my estimation Michigan should be the most improved football team in the Big Ten. I think UM wins 6 to 7 games and get bowl eligibility. I don't believe 8 or more wins is realistic this fall because of Michigan's defense, though I'm one of the few who considers Greg Robinson a "good hire" for DC this fall. If he can turn Michigan's defense into anything resembling UCLA from 1982-1989, Wolverine fans will not be estatic, but they will be "satisfied".
Michigan's story this fall has to be one of the most interesting. But two other Big Ten schools might surprise in 2009.
Minnesota will likely field a better team in 2009. They have a powerful offense, an average to just above-average defense, and a new outdoor football stadium beckoning Florida schools to "come up and play us if you dare". (To this I say halleluja and good riddance to the Metronome).
Minnesota has something like 17 to 18 starters back from last year. I would not be surprised to see the Gophers surprise some teams down the stretch.
Indiana
The team returns 20 starters from last fall, plus three pretty good QBs in Kellen Lewis (going to WR), Ben Chappell and Teddy Schell (dad played QB for IU earlier). Indiana's defense sucked last year, but it should be one of the most improved teams over 2008 behind UM and Minnesota.
Teams on the way down:
Purdue
I like Joey Elliott at QB, but Purdue lacks a rushing attack and the defense has been awful for several years straight. Just because the new sheriff (coach) in town also has cookie duster mustache, doesn't mean the programs on the rebound.
Wisconsin
I don't know. Great tailbacks, good offensive line again for 2009, but quarterback and defensive line, secondary will be average to below average this fall. And Bielema is already starting to feel some heat.
I agree, Minnesota is a surprise team for sure. Indy might pull an upset, but their talent level just is not there. Purdue will fall like a rock, but Wisconsin could be .500 if they run, run, run and Sherer can manage the game.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:45 AM ^
About time somebody gave IU a little love around these parts!!
IU will need to go 4-0 OOC, though, to get bowl eligible and that roadie at UVA looms as a bit tougher than the usual OOC games they've had in recent seasons. I actually think the Lewis experiment will work out in their favor, but I am a partisan alum.
Agreed on Purdue. They've already sunk like a stone, IMO, and wont get much better this season.
Disagree a bit about Wisco. I think offensively, they will be really good. I love their skill position players.....look out for WR Toon. The kid will have a breakout year. And, RB Clay is better than Hill, IMO.
And, I dont know if Sheaer will be their QB. Its a pretty wide open competition between him and RS Frosh Campbell. The kid plays a lot like Forcier and I think he will end up being the starter since he's a better runner than Sheaer.
But, I agree about Bielema. I dont think he's that good of a coach, so that's an X factor.
the Illinois-Michigan tilt is on October 31st, not November 31st which doesn't exist. I wouldn't of mentioned it 'cept for the mob mentality about correcting your entry. But I did enjoy it however, thanks for posting...fraught with error, lol that was funny white tiger!
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