Saturday Morning Psycho #9: Unicorns and Fairies Ed.

Submitted by SMart WolveFan on November 17th, 2018 at 3:13 PM

Russian writer Ivan Turgenev wrote (in Fathers and Sons in 1861), 
"The drawing shows me at one glance what might be spread over ten pages in a book."
This was one of the earliest expressions of the idea that "a picture is worth a thousand words".
In the first 8 "Psychos" I exploited this concept to pad my dairies with window dressing  
but today I'm going the other way, let me paint a picture with a thousand words:


I'm done not believn'. 
Santa Claus, Tooth Fairy, Unicorns and National Champions in college football.
Ooooo ....and Jackalopes, lot's and lot's of Jackalopes!

They may all be mythical but they make for a much more interesting world, especially compared to the world where the cabal has already started to hand the trophy to Bama. 

All I'm hoping for is a win today and a win next week, after that I start my Mythy* celebration.

(*Mythy is my way of saying Mythical National Championship just so I can annoy those "Natty" people)


I don't need to see them win in Indy to believe they're the B1G Champs, 
I don't need to see them lose to Bama by less than 7 in the CFP to know they can give Bama a run this year. And revenge on ND can wait till next Sept. 
As a matter of fact, next year's revenge tour against all of college football fueled by being left out of the CFP, probably gets us right past all the drama next year and in a much better position to beat Bama.

Now don't get me wrong, I hope reality gives the UofM players their well deserved and hard earned spot in the final four, especially for Chase, Rashan, Karan, Gentry and all the others who maybe leaving but if not, I'm fine living in delusion just like UCF fans last year .....(and Nebraska fans in '97)


As I wrote June 1st

"#1: lose opener on an epic, full-on "horseshoe up leprechaun's ass", 2 Kick return for TD, last minute hail mary from the endzone completed 
with a toe-drag 2 minute delay on review controversial, still hit the 52 yard field in a swirling wind.

#2: When the "rivalry" record hits 1-6 an auto immune response will be triggered in the more unstable parts of the fanbase, they will start jumping off the ship like rats thus lightening the stress on the band wagon: the team will "tune out" the outside noise and "steel their spines" with the US vs everybody attitude in route to the next 11 wins, including a glorious stomping of OSU in Columbus 
(Where Kirk Herbstreit announces on Game Day he is moving to Ann Arbor so that he and Desmond can become neighbors). 

 #3: Controversy ensues when a 12-1 UofM is ranked higher by CFC than a 12-1 Ala. because OSU was ranked #2 and Bama beat a 12th ranked Fla team in SEC champ), setting up a potential UofM and an undefeated ND in the CFP and the "dreaded" rematch senario (that SEC fans always used to think was just fine if they're 2 of 4 best teams)

(Choose you're own path:)

      #3a: Pressure puts an SEC team in; ND goes to CFP, UofM goes and clobbers someone by 30 in the Rose Bowl. Cali recruiting 'splodes!

      #3b: SEC in; UofM goes, beats Clemson, comes up just short against Bama, Cali recruiting 'splodes!

      #3c  SEC out; UofM/ND both go, UofM beats Clemson and ends the season avenging the loss to ND for the ship! Cali recruiting 'splodes!
#4: Cheer!"


However when I said it, it was mostly tongue in cheek. While I was sure that the game one loss at ND was actually crucial for the mindset of the team to have a special season, I really was hoping the CFP controversy part wouldn't come true; but now that it looks like it will, I simply don't care anymore.

All that matters to me is that UofM is playing like the third best team in the nation right now and inching closer to Bama and Clemson every week; considering where we all were this time last year, it's really fun.

Of course, after saying all that ....let me "make UofM's case" for the CFP.

So the question is: Can UofM's offense compete with Bama and Clem? The group think says the numbers UofM has aren't enough but .... sometimes numbers can be deceiving:

While UofMs offense is only ranked 53 in total offense, it's actually 30th in yards per play
Add that to the fact that the offensive game plan is defense complementary and runs a lot to possess the ball, UofM has sacrificed a lot of extra yards and points to keep the opposing offense off the field. But there is an extra hidden layer to this: the Offensive game plan actually has challenged the team to attack the teeth of the defenses they played. 

How many extra yards and points would the offense have if they would have thrown the ball more than 25x against the #1 rushing defense? Instead they drown them with 53 rush attempts. Or last week for example, they played against the #123 ranked rushing defense,you'd expect them to at least match their average rushes per game, which is 43, right? Nope, they only rushed
it 40 times and threw 28, three more than normal. 

By having the O push the rock "uphill", they are "sharpening the steel" to be more effective against top teams. Unfortunately it's not impressing any "eye tests".


Game Prediction:

With that in mind, I think the offensive game plan against Indiana will work the timing of the vertical passing game which means it could get out of hand early if they hit on them, or keep Indiana around longer if they don't. I think they do hit early and use the running game in the second half to close out.


Crazy Stat of the day:

Shea Patterson when team is down: 35-55   64%    469yards
Tua Tagovailoa when team is down:    2-2   100%      29yards


Today's Trivia:

How many yards per play is the Bama defense giving up when they are down?

Find the answer to that and you'll see why Bama might not be quite ready.


Till next time, stay PsYcho and GoBlue!


SMart WolveFan

November 17th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^

Halftime Update:

Missed shots, too conservative in the red zone and the Defense has it's worst half.

Just needed to call more aggressive plays the last two weeks, their efficiency can only take them so far, and they're running out of time to improve the execution in the passing game enough.