The Last Battle

Submitted by Other Andrew on August 30th, 2023 at 6:33 AM

This was posted on my long dormant blog. Sharing here in case mgousers find it interesting.

 

It just means more

I was sitting in Lloyd Carr’s office in August of 2008. He was officially a few weeks away from retirement. I was a few weeks away from the end of my mid-life crisis. That had come early for me, at 32 years of age. I quit my perfectly good job to drive 23,000 miles across 43 states, attend 17 college football games, and interview roughly 1,000 fans and a handful of coaches.

When I began by explaining what I was up to, he said “Wow, this sport really means a lot do you to you, doesn’t it?” I was taken aback by his obvious observation, and that I hadn’t realized quite how much I cared about it until he framed it for me. If I had ever gotten my book finished, it would have centered on the big question behind this. Why do we care so much about college football?

There are many reasons, but I would posit that the simplest of them is that it’s the sport that has consistently delivered the most drama every single week. I don’t have to explain this to anyone who follows the game beyond just their team. And if someone’s a die-hard of any team, part of college football has always been keeping an eye on everyone else.

Nearly every one of those 1,000 fans I spoke to talked about how much this sport matters to them. How it’s different than anything else. How they love it because it is so many things that the NFL is not. The original premise of that journey was about the inherent tension between tradition and progress. Back then there was debate if the BCS should be changed to have a playoff. Coach Carr even said he felt it had to happen. Relating to the playoff debate, a Wisconsin fan named Ken Simmons told me, “Look at why the passion for college football is so great. You don’t want to change a whole lot. You don’t want to harm that passion. I think that’s why they’re moving as slowly as they are.”

 

Play It Off

We’ll see more change in the leap to 2024 than the sport has ever seen before. And it’s happening very quickly. Conference realignment previously thought to be crazy will take hold, with nearly all surviving going national. The NIL era is approaching its initial level of stasis as people figure things out. Already this year, they are shortening the games to protect time for commercials (not to protect the players).

Yet the most important change has simply been accepted with a general shrug. The system is moving to a 12-team playoff, which will do more to upend what makes college football special than anything else.

We needed a playoff because we invented a BCS. Before the BCS it was frustrating, but ultimately OK that teams occasionally had to share national championships. We called them “mythical” for a reason. The BCS was meant to solve all of that. Get the top two teams together and it’s solved. Except there were various years when either the wrong teams were chosen, or a worthy third team got left out of having their chance. Moving to a four-team playoff from that point had to happen. Coach Carr and Ken Simmons, traditionalists though they were, both said so.

Why do we need to go to a 12 team playoff? Aside from the 2014 season, when Baylor and TCU had an obliquely plausible argument, there has been no deserving team left out of the playoff. So there is no problem to solve. Like nearly every change happening today, it’s driven by TV money. It is impossible for a 12-team playoff to pick a more worthy champion than the system today provides. This has been proven.

Many fans are excited because they know they’re going to get some great games. I can’t blame them. We haven’t had many great games recently. Look at the entire list of AP Top 25 non-conference matchups for this year:

    • Ole Miss (22) vs Tulane (24) Sept 4
    • LSU (5) vs FSU (8) Sept 4
    • Alabama (4) vs Texas (11) Sept 10
    • OSU (3) vs Notre Dame (13) Sept 24
    • USC (6) vs Notre Dame (13) Oct 14

Gah!

Michigan’s 2nd best home game this season is against Purdue. The 3rd best is against Rutgers. It gets worse from there… Gah-gah!

 

Nobody seems to recognize what we’re giving up. In college football death is on the line every single week. Think about Ohio State’s loss to Purdue in 2019. That one where they couldn’t tackle Rondale Moore? It kept them out of the playoff even though they won every other game. Remember the Kick Six? Remember when JT was short*? Remember when Stanford lost to Oregon by 2 in 2015? Or when Iowa lost the Big Ten Title game to Michigan State? When Clemson lost last year to the Gamecocks by one point? All of those results had seismic ramifications. With a 12-team playoff, they no longer matter at all.

*my opinion which is worth very little.

 

We got a taste of this last year when Ohio State suffered one of the worst defeats imaginable in The Game* yet nearly won the National Championship anyway? Everyone agrees that would have been weird to say the least. This is no big deal in any of the big four American professional sports. They’ve all shifted to a system whereby the regular season is a mere prelude to what really matters.

*my opinion which also matters not.

 

One of the last non-goofy posts on this blog is when I urged all fans to protect the sanctity of The Game when Dave Brandon seemingly wanted to move it to October. I titled that post FREEDOM IS SLAVERY for cryin’ out loud. Now? Who cares. Kick Six? Nice play, see you in the semis. Lose The Game? Doesn’t matter, we have bonus lives. There is no more living and dying with each play, at least not until we get to… what is it? December? January?

In that meeting with Coach Carr, it was 20 months after The Game of the Century in Columbus. You could tell that the loss was still stinging him. And it stung me. For many years. Still kinda stings. Always gonna sting. Next year? Just another game. On to the next one. See you in the semis…

 

It’s All Over Now Baby Blue

So we come to the 2023 season. It’s the last season of College Football. I’m not alone in this opinion. Every week I have lived and died with my team since I first entered the stadium as a freshman in 1993. And every week someone I met on the road 16 years ago is rejoicing or crying in their beer. But next year the joy will be restrained. The tears will not flow. Because the games don’t matter.

Michigan is poised for an incredible year. All the stars seem to be aligning. If this is the last year of College Football, as a fan I’m hoping I get to have an amazing ride into the sunset. They are an adorable team, top to bottom, and they’ll matter for me as long as I live, regardless of the result.

Will I still watch in 2024? Of course. Maybe on DVR to avoid the commercials. But will I invest my hopes, dreams, fears, and angst? Will I still care? That will inherently have to wait until the postseason. And if my team is 13th, well, I don’t know if I’ll bother tuning in for the top 12. Because officially, none of the rest of this matters.

The powers that be don’t care about me or people like me. They want to increase the reach and get more eyeballs on screens for the big matchups. It's the incremental eyeballs that drive the incremental revenue. The cost of those choices is grave damage to what made this sport special.

That crazy trip I took was a huge success for me. I made new friends. It led to me meeting my wife, and one of my best friends meeting her husband. Now our kids play together in the rare occasions we can meet up on vacation. I got to meet famous writers, ADs, Roy Kramer (who used his phone to show me the score of the Michigan game – early technology adopter, Roy), and many of you wonderful people. Damn right this really means a lot to me.

So let’s enjoy this last ride before the shine is gone for good.

 

Go Blue!

Comments

JHumich

August 30th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^

At first, I thought it was a CS Lewis reference.

Enjoyable read and totally agree that this is going to completely change the nature of college football. I'm one (of the few?) who doesn't really get into pro sports much anymore. They just don't really matter (to me, not even really in the playoffs, which are more about show than rivalry and overcoming all). And it's sad to see a sport that did matter going the way of the dinosaur.

bighouseinmate

August 30th, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^

I believe that in 2024 there will arguably be MORE games where the outcome of that particular game matters for the cfp. first round byes, first round home games, and with 12 teams making it in there will arguably be more teams with a shot at making it in depending on the outcome of their last game. That last one means there should be more games at the end of the regular season and for the conference championships that will matter. 
 

All of that isn’t to say that there will be more good games in the playoffs. There might not be. 

Other Andrew

August 31st, 2023 at 3:57 AM ^

I do think the quality of non-conference games will slightly improve. The BCS encouraged a clean sheet, where any loss was penalized harshly. There was no incentive to take the risk of a tougher game. The Playoff Committee has done little to change that.

That said, the real driver of poor scheduling is still money. More home games for the wealthy teams they can keep the majority of to themselves.

But even if we get better matchups, my point is that losing them is no longer the crushing blow it has always been in college football. Yes, you want a higher seed and a bye, but you’re still in the game. This is the last year where the season is potentially on the line each week. So the degree of importance goes down.

bighouseinmate

August 31st, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^

Yes, with your top teams that are likely to be unbeaten or with only one loss the degree of importance goes down. But, I see more teams in that two or even possibly three loss tier that will have their last few games having way more importance than previously. Instead of jockeying for a decent bowl game to end up in, they are now truly fighting for their lives to have that chance of making it into the cfp.

If you look at just the last regular season week of last year, for example, there were only 7-8 teams that had a realistic shot for the cfp under the 4 team playoff format. Apply the 12 team model and that number jumps up to about 20 teams. The number of games that last weekend that would have had an impact on cfp participation rises from 5-6 to somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17(and maybe more for byes and first round home games, depending).
 

Yes, money is a big driver of the changing playoff structure, but for the college football fanatics there is way more interesting and pivotal games to watch with a 12 team format.