If We Voted- My Top 25 and Your's Too
What a week it was in college football. It was one filled with upsets, dramatic victories, and narrow escapes by team in the Top 25 (Michgan included).
Last week I gave a link to the individual ballots of all of the AP voters. I thought it was interesting to see what the individual ballots were of each voter. What I found is that I would estimate only half of these guys actually watch college football games other than the team that they are covering. In my opinion many of these guys just throw a team at the top, give some love to their home team, and love to vote for the conference that they primarily cover. Now I know that the AP poll does not have a direct relationship with the BCS anymore, but I do feel like it effects the voting culture of the Harris Poll and possibly even the Coaches' Poll.
Why do I say this you might ask?
This topic was discussed on ESPN's College GameDay by a couple of guys that have votes in the AP Poll, Kirk Herbstreit and Craig James. FWIW I would qualify them as competent voters, because they watch national college football as a job. Both of them believed that there were/are voters in the poll that do not do their diligence in producing a quality, non-bias ranking system.
So why am I doing this?
I feel like there are people on this site that love college football, and watch a lot more of it than the so called "expert" voters from the AP. If you have the sports package from Comcast, than you can watch 8-10 college games at a time on Saturday Afternoon, not to mention some during the week, and my opinion is that you cannot have to much college football. So the answer is that I feel like I am just as qualified to vote as these guys, and so are most of you, and I wanted to give you guys a place to discuss the entire Top 25 every week.
OK, a couple quick things to before my Top 25. 1) I chose the AP Poll because I feel like it is the most debated/discussed one during the week due to ESPN featuring it as their ranking system of choice. 2) I know we have the blog poll on the website, but we all do not vote on that, and I want to know what each of you think individually, because you can never have to much college football debate/opinion.
My TOP 25
Last week I gave a link to the individual ballots of all of the AP voters. I thought it was interesting to see what the individual ballots were of each voter. What I found is that I would estimate only half of these guys actually watch college football games other than the team that they are covering. In my opinion many of these guys just throw a team at the top, give some love to their home team, and love to vote for the conference that they primarily cover. Now I know that the AP poll does not have a direct relationship with the BCS anymore, but I do feel like it effects the voting culture of the Harris Poll and possibly even the Coaches' Poll.
Why do I say this you might ask?
This topic was discussed on ESPN's College GameDay by a couple of guys that have votes in the AP Poll, Kirk Herbstreit and Craig James. FWIW I would qualify them as competent voters, because they watch national college football as a job. Both of them believed that there were/are voters in the poll that do not do their diligence in producing a quality, non-bias ranking system.
So why am I doing this?
I feel like there are people on this site that love college football, and watch a lot more of it than the so called "expert" voters from the AP. If you have the sports package from Comcast, than you can watch 8-10 college games at a time on Saturday Afternoon, not to mention some during the week, and my opinion is that you cannot have to much college football. So the answer is that I feel like I am just as qualified to vote as these guys, and so are most of you, and I wanted to give you guys a place to discuss the entire Top 25 every week.
OK, a couple quick things to before my Top 25. 1) I chose the AP Poll because I feel like it is the most debated/discussed one during the week due to ESPN featuring it as their ranking system of choice. 2) I know we have the blog poll on the website, but we all do not vote on that, and I want to know what each of you think individually, because you can never have to much college football debate/opinion.
My TOP 25
- Alabama
- Florida
- Texas
- LSU
- Cincinnati
- Virginia Tech
- Boise State
- Iowa
- Houston
- TCU
- Oklahoma State
- Miami (FL)
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Kansas
- Missouri
- Penn State
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Ohio State
- UCLA
- Georgia Tech
- Wisconsin
- Nebraska
- Mississippi
- No Cal- You cannot lose 42-3 and be a Top 25 team
- You get some credit from me for being undefeated, if you have played anyone at all. I will never think it is easy to win football games.
- If you lose you fall. If you lose to a team that loses to a bad team that hurts you. (See Ohio State)
- My 26th team would be South Florida
- Missouri is good and gets no love, same for UCLA
- You can "claw your way back" by winning games against good teams (Oregon)
- Credit for really good wins (Miami, Iowa, Houston, Boise State)
- If you win, no matter how you win, you still won and should not be punished, unless the win was really close and against a team that is so bad that it was embarrassing.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:23 AM ^
I understand Michigan hasn't lost yet, but do you really think they're top 15 at this point?
Same for Cincinatti, is Cincinatti really the top team in Ohio? You could very well be right, I just think 5 is a little high in general.
Penn State may have lost at home, but should they drop that much?
My biggest gripe, however: Where is Georgia?
September 28th, 2009 at 9:43 AM ^
Michigan is not a Top 15 team TALENT WISE, but they have taken care of business, and some teams like USC have not. USC is a better football team TALENT wise, but they need to win. You cannot lose a game to Washington and be ranked ahead of a 4-0 team that beat Notre Dame. I believe that USC will EVENTUALLY be ranked ahead of Michigan again but I want them to earn it.
Georgia has looked awful. They played poorly against OK State, Arizona State, and Arkansas. They will be back in again, but other teams have earned the spot right now. They have a great schedule to get some quality wins and look good doing it.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:58 AM ^
I hear ya, but "Georgia has looked awful" is different from looking solely at records. Georgia's only loss thus far was to your #11 team (on the road. Also first game of the season.) They've had arguably the toughest schedule to date of any team in the country (save Miami). Their weakest opponent was probably Arkansas, they're still a pretty solid football team that could upset a couple of SEC teams. You have to credit Georgia for their OOC scheduling (Playing a strong Big 12 team on the road for a season opener.)
I just don't think you can make a blanket statement such as "taking care of business" If you want to use a team's record as the only factor, just call it a standing.
September 28th, 2009 at 10:50 AM ^
You are probably right, Georgia should be in. I should have given them more credit, it was just hard after watching almost all of their games to think they are a Top 25 team. But you are right. Record speaking they are having a fine year.
September 28th, 2009 at 10:55 AM ^
I agree. Georgia has really impressed me this season with the teams they have challenged. They are probably better than Michigan right now, and could make a case for being a top-12 team.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:27 AM ^
We do not belong in the top 15. Sorry. Not yet.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:48 AM ^
top 20, yet. A win against State would go a long ways.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:30 AM ^
One of the biggest sources of consternation with polls is that everyone assumes different criteria. My poll would look a lot different if you are asking me to rank (1) the 25 strongest teams, (2) the 25 teams who have compiled the best resume so far, (3) the 25 teams that I expect will have the best record at the end, or (4) the 25 teams who had the best season-to-date (not the same as #2).
I was actually going to write a diary about this difference and perform a detailed resume ranking to show why I think everyone does it wrong, but the ranking took way too long and I didn't get very far. What I did conclude is that, if we are using criteria #2, Iowa is ahead of Boise, and looking extremely impressive. Boise and Houston are a coin-flip. And Michigan should be ahead of Wisconsin, but not by as much as we think.
Anyway, I'll probably weigh in with a complete top 25 once I have a better sense of what our rankings should be based on.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:52 AM ^
I want you to tell me what you think your criteria would be. My criteria is factoring in overall wins, strength of schedule, how the team plays, and strength of losses. Examples: I like Miami because they have play 3 ranked teams. A team like USC lost to Washington, so they fall. OSU lost to USC, and in my mind at this point can not be put ahead of them. I am a big proponent of getting the best resume so far, and who has had the best season. My biggest problem is people who rank the teams using criteria #3, which is trying to predict the end of the season right now. I think you should vote in the present.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:33 AM ^
First, I think that Alabama is head and shoulders above the rest of the NCAA right now. They are the only team that has proven anything on the field. If I could vote Alabama first, second, and third, I would.
Here is my version of the top 15 (Because I have little to no clue after that):
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Cincinnati
6. LSU
7. Virginia Tech
8. TCU
9. Ohio State
10.Iowa
11.Oregon
12.Houston
13.USC
14.Oklahoma
15.Missouri
Yes, I know that I have OSU above USC, but OSU looks a LOT better than USC does right now and has posted back to back shut-outs. USC looked real ugly against Washington and just as sloppy against WSU in that (WSU had a garbage time TD) shut-out. I don't really think that LSU is the #6 team, but I don't think I can justify putting anyone else ahead of them. Houston at #12 also scares me. They have a GREAT offense, but their defense is just as bad as Michigan's (FWIW, I think Michigan is around 20).
BE KIND!
September 28th, 2009 at 9:43 AM ^
Alabama has definitely looked like the best team in the country this far as much as I don't like to say it.
UCLA? The Tenn. win wasn't expected but they're not the 3rd best team in the Pac10. Cal should still be up there or Stanford maybe? also at 3-1
LSU did not look like a top 5 team, maybe top 10 but they got the win this week.
South Florida beat FSU to go 4-0 this weekend so I was surprised you didn't have them above 26.
September 28th, 2009 at 9:59 AM ^
"If you win, no matter how you win, you still won and should not be punished, unless the win was really close and against a team that is so bad that it was embarrassing."
See Michigan's win over Indiana? Indiana is bad as you will see come the rest of their Big Ten schedule. Michigan's defense is also bad which made this game a close game and in many ways embarrassing for. Michigan at 13 puts you right in there with the writers you criticized about.
"What I found is that I would estimate only half of these guys actually watch college football games other than the team that they are covering. In my opinion many of these guys just throw a team at the top, give some love to their home team, and love to vote for the conference that they primarily cover."
So you put Michigan at 13, Iowa at 8, OSU at 20 (who would beat Iowa 5 out of 7 times imo) and Penn State at 17? This is blatant homerism as Michigan is the 2nd highest BT team on your list having not really played anyone convincingly well and TUOS our biggest rival as the lowest having narrowly lost to a 3rd ranked team. Thus you prove your own point on why human polls are garbage with your ridiculous rankings.
September 28th, 2009 at 10:10 AM ^
Indiana is not terrible right now. I think they are better than some of the Big Ten teams, including Illinois.
I told you how I was ranking teams and as of now you cannot put Ohio State ahead of Iowa or Michigan. For OSU, their big non-conf game was USC and they lost. Michigan's was Notre Dame, and they won. Notre Dame has not lost since, including wins over two Big ten teams, and USC has lost to Washington.
The Michigan win was not an embarrassing win. Indiana is a Big 10 team. Early in the season I consider any conference win a good one until we see more about how the conference plays out.
By the way, you proved why polls are bad because you used a imaginary match-up between OSU and Iowa. People cannot do this. They have not played yet, do not punish Iowa because they have not played OSU yet, wait until they play and if OSU wins move them up accordingly.
September 28th, 2009 at 12:25 PM ^
I agree that Indiana is not terrible and may still have a decent season. Our game went exactly as I expected, and that was due to our awful defense. I don't know how you can rank Michigan in the top 15 after that performance. There have been no signs of significant improvement, and if it keeps up we may not have as much success in scoring and winning in shoot outs down the road. I was disappointed with how we played. A win is a win, but given our performance, Michigan should have moved down in the rankings, not up.
September 28th, 2009 at 12:32 PM ^
To do an accurate poll though you do have to look to the future or match-up tams in your head. Think of every week's poll as the final poll of the season. Do you really think that because they lost to Washington in Washington and without their starting QB that USC would lose to many of the teams ranked ahead of them? To do a proper poll you have to not only include the current win loss record and resume but also look at the makeup of the team and the coaches and see circumstances behind the wins and losses. Using USC again everyone knows that Pete Carroll is famous for winning big time games and then dropping games that should be blowouts. Whether it be his lack of motivating his kids or what it's been common knowledge around college football for years. Along with Tressell ball down in Cbus. He'll find a way to win the Big Ten again but manages to lose to big time teams even in games they should have won like this year's USC matchup. Polls are inherently flawed and no matter who did them there will always be someone saying how it's wrong. Which is why college football desperately needs a playoff system but sadly will never happen due to monetary gains. The BCS is just worth too much money.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:57 PM ^
Indiana's only loss was against us. This fits his described methodology. I don't know how you could say Indiana is horrible until they lose a game to a team with a lot of losses.
September 28th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
I had a good time doing this, and would like to get everyone involved. Michigan fans are some of the most knowledgeable fan bases in the country, and I think we could get a member poll going. I am looking for about 25 people who could do this, but would need at least 10. Le me know if you are interested. Feel free to e-mail me if you would like to do this and I will get it organized. E-mail is [email protected]
September 28th, 2009 at 12:19 PM ^
Giving a lot of credo to the ND win despite them looking generally awful against Purdue and MSU (likely should have lost both). IU was also in a nailbiter against Eastern Kentucky (17 offensive pts, 73 rushing yards, 70 less ty than vs. UM). Also, it seems with ND being UM's best win, ND is nowhere to be found despite being 3-1 with their only loss to your #13 team on the road. Also, where is Indiana, 3-1 with their only loss to #13 on the road by 3 points in the final minutes. PSU has zero quality wins and other than previous ranking, has no business in the T25, or at least no more so than Indiana or Notre Dame. You give credit to UM but not to their opponents, negating any positive of the UM win itself. So...I think your poll is...not good.
1 Alabama
2 Florida
3 Texas
4 Boise State
5 Virginia Tech
6 LSU
7 Houston
8 Oklahoma
9 USC
10 TCU
11 Cincinnati
12 Iowa
13 Ohio State
14 Oklahoma State
15 Miami (FL)
16 Georgia
17 Oregon
18 Kansas
19 Michigan
20 Nebraska
21 South Florida
22 Brigham Young
23 Mississippi
24 Penn State
25 Wisconsin
Something like that. Whatever, like it or not, the BCS is really the only poll that matters and we have two more weeks of Yakety saxing before that shakes out.
September 28th, 2009 at 12:41 PM ^
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. LSU
6. Iowa
7. Houston
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cincinnati
10. USC
11. TCU
12. Oregon
13. Oklahoma State
14. Ohio State
15. Penn State
16. Kansas
17. Michigan
18. Miami FL
19. Georgia
20. Auburn
21. South Carolina
22. South Florida
23. Missouri
24. Nebraska
25. UCLA
Tier 1 Teams: #1 Alabama - #7 Houston. All Tier 1 teams have at least one quality win and have shown themselves to be generally talented. Tier 1 teams must have a resume worthy of entering the National Championship game if it were held today.
Tier 2 Teams: #8 Virginia Tech - #13 Oklahoma State. Tier 2 teams include undefeated Cincinnati and TCU, who are undefeated with wins over BCS teams, but lack a win as good as a Tier 1 team, or teams that have one quality loss and at least one quality win. Note: a quality loss cannot be a blowout loss.
Tier 3 Teams: #14 Ohio State - #25 Nebraska. Tier 3 teams are a mix of undefeated teams with no clear quality wins (exp. Michigan over ND is not a quality win until and unless ND proves itself), and one loss teams with worse losses/worse wins than Tier 2 teams (exp. Miami, Georgia, South Carolina).
The number of tiers will change throughout the season, as more games are played and teams differentiate themselves from one another. Ideally, Tier 1 will only include valid National Championship contenders, Tier 2 will only include valid potential BCS bowl teams, and the lower tiers will simply provide groups of teams with comparable quality.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:00 PM ^
This is more like a legitimate ballot. I do think that Cal should still be ranked on the merit of how good Best is... but no higher than 25th. OP overranked teams that did not deserve it. I think you overranked Iowa a little though... more of 8th or 9th... they are not championship contenders at the moment, even though they have worked most kinks out.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:55 PM ^
I ranked Iowa 6th because I think that they have played a tough schedule thus far and managed to go undefeated. They have wins over former top 5 team Penn State, as well as two other BCS teams (Iowa State, who looks like they may make it to a bowl game this year (and thus constitutes something close to legitimate competition), and Arizona). I don't think they'll be up there at the end of the season (hopefully they'll drop in two weeks), but their resume is pretty strong at the moment. I ranked them above Houston, for the record, because I (perhaps a little unfairly) devalued the Oklahoma State win a bit because Oklahoma State was coming off a big win and looked prone to a letdown game.
September 28th, 2009 at 6:03 PM ^
The Texas Christians have a killer defense, and winning in Clemson in the rain was damn impressive.
They haven't earned a top-5 spot yet, but they'll be there at the end of the year, and their QB Andy Dalton will be the most impressive ginger in the nation. Joe Cox can suck it.
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