Running for our lives...against UConn

2013.  The season of Manball.  The season of Devin Gardner.  The thumping of CMU.  The return of Ol' 98.  The full bucket of KFC after Notre Dame.  The...WTF just happened?

Brady Hoke appeared poised to repeat the third-year success of past Michigan coaches with more of his recruits taking the field and the full installation of his offensive philosophy of MANBALL.  An easier schedule meant 9 wins was almost a worst-case-scenario.  Ohio at home was going to be the most significant edition of "The Game" since 2006.

Is it time to throw all of that away?

Michigan is 4-0 heading into its first bye week, but never has undefeated felt so much like a funeral.  CMU went as expected, Notre Dame was pure joy; now there is an anxious certainty that armageddon is just around the corner.

You know it's bad when the gif is from The Shining

But I thought, "Maybe it's not as bad as it looks.  Maybe there is some semblance of hope in the numbers that I'm just not able to see now."  So I set out to find solace in statistics, in search of some great white buffalo to sooth my soul.  

Let's start with Akron.  We're talking about a team that has picked-up only 17 recruits ranked above two stars on rivals in the last five years.  To put that in perspective, Michigan had 17 players with FOUR stars or better in the 2013 class alone.  Saying there is a "talent gap" is like calling the Grand Canyon a pothole.

Maybe a chart will make me feel better:

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play
08/29/13	@ UCF	Grass	L 7-38	134	116	60	250	4.17
09/07/13	James Madison	Turf	W 35-33	69	287	57	356	6.25
09/14/13	@ 18 Michigan	Turf	L 24-28	107	311	79	418	5.29
09/21/13	La.-Lafayette	Turf	L 30-35	134	321	70	455	6.50
	Totals			444	1035	266	1479	5.56

This is Akron's offensive output through their first four games.  UCF held Akron to 168 fewer yards and 1.12 fewer yards/play.  How bad is 5.29 yards/play?  Last season, only Alabama, Northwestern, Ohio State, and South Carolina averaged more yards/play against us.  All of those teams finished the season ranked #17 or higher.  UMass averaged 3.92 yards/play; Purdue 3.49; Illinois 2.53.  Even Nebraska only posted 5.02, while Air Force managed 4.63.  

Not since GERG has a cupcake been able to move the ball so effectively against Michigan, and even the 2008 defense had a better average yards/play than 5.29.  So yeah, that's really bad.  I'm not feeling any better yet.  Maybe another chart?

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play
08/31/13	Central Mich.	Turf	W 59-9	242	221	68	463	6.81
09/07/13	22 Notre Dame	Turf	W 41-30	166	294	72	460	6.39
09/14/13	Akron	Turf	W 28-24	177	248	62	425	6.85
09/21/13	@ Connecticut	Grass	W 24-21	192	97	72	289	4.01
	Totals			777	860	274	1637	5.97

That's better.  Our offense cranked out 6.85 yards/play vs. Akron--even better than we did against CMU.  Sure, there were some negative plays and the MANBALL didn't really get going until late, but you can't argue the offense wasn't productive when it piled-up 425 yards on just 62 plays.  The real problem was the 62 plays--a number indicative of bad defense and turnovers.  If we get to 70 plays--roughly our average in the three other games--we're looking at about 480 yards of offense.

But there was something in that chart that bothered me...

HOLY $#!%!!!  We only managed 4.01 yards/play agasint UConn?  The only game we did worse than that in 2012 was Nebraska.  We put up 4.80 yards/play agasint 'Bama, 5.26 against MSU, and even managed 4.53 against ND.  Only MSU and VaTech held us under 4.01 yards/play in 2011 (3.73 and 3.54, respectively) and NO ONE kept us that low in 2010.  In 2009, Penn State held us to 3.42.  Three teams did in 2008--but those three teams had a combined seven losses.  In 2007, Penn State allowed just 3.91, while Ohio didn't let us move: we averaged just 1.49 yards/play.

What do you notice about all those teams?  They're good.  Most of them were really good.  I am not willing to go back further than 2007, but I seriously doubt Michigan has ever had such a poor offensive performance against a cupcake.  We averaged 6.22 in The Horror.

I need more chart.

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play
08/29/13	Towson	Grass	L 18-33	81	206	55	287	5.22
09/14/13	Maryland	Grass	L 21-32	25	349	79	374	4.73
09/21/13	18 Michigan	Grass	L 21-24	47	159	57	206	3.61
	Totals			153	714	191	867	4.54

UConn managed just 3.61 yards/play against us.  That's basically what MSU and VaTech did to us in 2011, and it's far better than Towson or Maryland fared against the Huskies.  It's even better than the 3.68 yards/play we allowed to CMU.  Only Purdue and Illinois were held to lower yards/play in 2012, and only Illinois in 2011.  Miami (NTM) and Delaware State were the only teams held under that average in the RR era, and in 2007 we held Minnesota to 3.50 and Notre Dame to...1.44.

So...how bad?

In the Akron game, the defense was really, really bad.  Against an opponent whose players barely make the Rivals rankings.  In the UConn game, the offense was even worse.  While UConn's 40 three-star recruits (and one four-star!) in the last five classes make Akron jealous, they're hardly a football powerhouse.

The good news is that only one side of the ball sucked in both games (although special teams certainly haven't helped much).  That kept us from a second-coming of The Horror.  The bad news is that we are capable of playing at historically bad levels on both sides of the ball.  Elite teams don't do that.

Based on the last two weeks, it's hard to look at any of our remaining games and feel totally secure.  We're not playing anyone as bad as Akron or UConn the rest of the way.  If our offense plays like they just did, Minnesota could beat us.  If our defense plays like they did against Akron, Indiana could beat us.  I just threw-up in my mouth thinking about that.

If we can get the team to play to its potential on both sides of the ball, we could definitely still get to double-digits in the win column.  That's a big "if".  For now, I'm revising my 10-2 prediction to 8-4.   We could easily lose four-out-of-five in November, or Penn State could trip us in October.

It's frustrating that I am this nervous/anxious for the Minnesota game as a measuring stick.